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Hi Team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, February 16, with your Trading Trainer weekend and holiday edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. And because it is the weekend, holiday edition, we’re going to take a look at both daily and weekly charts. But before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to login to the Trading Trainer “Learning Community” web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. And of course, once we have logged into the “Learning Community” web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendation sub-tab.

Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Tuesday, February 20’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights and its sub-tabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background, in another browser tab or another browser window, depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio. The first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights and its sub-tabs, it’ll make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own, after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s click on the Index Stats sub-tab.

Index Stats

Our trading bias does remain Neutral Bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.08% today on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange volume, and gained 4.25% this past week on light, above average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 0.23% today on light, mixed average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and gained 5.31% for this past week on light, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps shown by the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% today and gained 4.3% for this past week.

Moving on to our secondary indexes. Our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 edged up 0.04% today and gained 4.29% for this past week. Our mid caps shown by the S&P 400 Index gained 0.22% today and gained 4.41% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, gained 0.44% and 0.42% respectively for today, and gained 4.35% and 4.45% respectively for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.13% today and 3.78% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index gained 1.73% today but fell 33.04% for the week, down to $19.46. Our gold ETF fell 0.33% today but gained 2.56% for this past week. And our oil ETF gained 0.41% today and 4.38% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our Economic Calendar. To do that, we’ll go to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar sub-tab. First thing I’d like you to do is read the Market Reflections summary found on today’s column. Then I’d like you to fast forward to Tuesday, February 20’s column, and I’d like you to read the Market Focus pointers.

Calendar Feb 20

Also, on Monday, February 19, which is a trading holiday, you’ll find our once-a-week International Perspective and Simply Economics reports. These weekly reports are must-reads. They summarize what happened the previous week and what to expect for the week to come. Take a moment this holiday weekend and read the International Perspective and Simply Economics reports.

Back to Friday, February 16, today.

Calendar Feb 16

Housing starts were released. In December, housing starts, the seasonally adjusted annual rate, were at 1.192 million. We revised that December number up this time around to be 1.209 million, and our January number 1.326 million. Permits, which is actually looking into the future, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for December was 1.302 million, revised slightly lower this time around to be 1.3 million, and then for January permits increased to 1.396 million.

Import and export prices were released. Month over month for December up 0.1%, revised this time around to be up 0.2%. For January, up 1%. Export prices in December, down 0.1%, revised this time around to be up 0.1%, and for January up 0.8%. Year over year import prices are up 3%, reported this December. That December number was revised this time around to 3.2%, and in January we are reporting that import prices year over year are up 3.6%. Export prices in December year over year, we reported that they were up 2.6%. We revised that December number to be up 2.8%, and the January number, we’re reporting up 3.4%.

Taking a look at our consumer sentiment, mid-month numbers, last time we reported 95.7, this time we’re reporting 99.9.

Taking a look at the upcoming week. Tuesday looks to be very quiet. Wednesday, we’ve got our existing home sales and the meeting minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. We also have on Thursday our jobless claims. Friday looks to be a quiet day.

Let’s move on to our Trading Tools tab and our Watch List subtab. We had quite a few tickers identified by our option trading candidate filter. We’re going to evaluate these for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Daily Picks report generation tool. We’re going to take our index tickers. We’re going to do a deeper dive by looking at volume and trends.

Volume Trends

Volume was about the same as it was yesterday, about the same as the 50 day, about the same as the 200 day. The oscillator shows that volume has been heavy recently on a consistent basis. Our short duration trends are bullish. Our long duration trends are neutral.

Backing this up. Taking a look at our template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they were presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea what the broad market personality is doing as well as what to look for in our watch list.

As you can see here, the reactive template, the buffered template, and the Chaiken template are showing pretty much neutral.

Template 1

Our short-term trend template is showing bullishness.

Template 2

Our trend reversal template is showing neutral.

Template 3

The bar counter is showing that we’ve got fives and sixes. The Bollinger Band width index is still very wide at 10.

Let’s take a look at our charts. We’re going to start with our Quick Review template. That’s a six-month, daily chart with a linear scale and open-high-low-close bars, a separate pane for volume and volume average. To that Quick Review template, we’re going to add the 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have these simple moving averages added to the Quick Review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’m going to apply that template to the indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Once this chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen. We’ll start with our weekly, two-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart

And, we can see quite an up S-bar for the week. Fairly healthy volume as well. This is a major turnaround. It takes our, testing bear polarity, and may quickly reverse it. We’ll see if we get a higher high after having a lower low. Let’s switch to our six-month, daily chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart

And as you can see here, we had day one, day two, day three. Day four was 1.03% on heavier volume. We would say that the counting method to determine a market bottom has been satisfied. Our 50 day is trending up. Our 200 day is trending up. Our 30 day is flat. Our 7 day has started to trend up as well, even though it’s crossed down below the 30 and the 50. Switching to our five-minute chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-min chart

You can see we’ve had up days all week, up day all the way through today’s afternoon session, where leading into the holiday weekend we saw just a little bit of profit-taking. During professional hour, we were flat. Back to our daily chart. We closed at $25,219.38. Again, the 7 is below the 30 and the 50. Our 50 is above the 200. Our 30 is above the 50. Our 30 is flat. Our 50 is actually up. We’re still testing bear on the weekly. We have gotten a higher high on the daily, so we’re going to call this Testing Bull. And as far as support and resistance goes, it looks like we’ve got support at 24,750 and we’ve got resistance, maybe our next level of resistance is at 25,350.

Let’s move on to the NASDAQ. We will go to our weekly, two-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart

Here we can see that we had quite an up week to counteract last week. Very health volume. Looks like we’re going to be keeping perhaps a bullish trading bias on the weekly polarity. Switching to a six-month daily chart.

NASDAQ daily chart

The 7 is up. The 30 is up. The 50 is up. The 200 is up. Switching to our five-minute chart.

NASDAQ 5-min chart

Again, up days all week, and then around noon we sort of saw a little bit of profit-taking that just then stabilized. During professional hour, prices stayed constant. Back to our daily chart. We had day one, day two, day three. Day four was 1.86% and volume was heavy. So the counting method to determine a market bottom was very much satisfied. All trends are pointing up. And we are testing bull on the daily polarity. As far as support and resistance goes, it looks like we have support at 7200 and we have resistance at 7400. Neutral bullish trading bias.

Let’s move on to the S&P 500 Index, the index I feel like most represents our watch list, starting with our weekly, two-year chart.  Again, a rebound week on healthy volume. Our trading bias on our polarity seems to still be bullish.

S&P 500 weekly chart

Switching to our six-month, daily chart.

S&P 500 daily chart

As you can see here, our 200 is up, our 50 is up, our 30 is flat. Our 7 is up, still below the 30 and the 50. Moving on to our five-minute chart.

S&P 500 5-min chart

Again, up days all this week. Stalled today around noon but only to go flat. Maybe just a little bit of trepidation going into the weekend. Day one, day two, day three. Day four was 1.34% price increase on pretty healthy volume. The counting method to determine a market bottom was satisfied. We’re at $2732. It looks like we’ve got a level of support or resistance, I should say, at $2750. Our level of support is here at $2675. We’ll keep our trading bias at neutral bullish. Our daily polarity goes to testing bull.

Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. Going to our weekly, two-year chart.

New York Stock Exchange weekly chart

As you can see here, we popped up reversing last week sell-off. Six-month, daily chart.

New York Stock Exchange daily chart

We have our 50 flat. Our 30 down. Our seven up. Our 200 up. I’m going to keep clearly a neutral bullish trading bias. This one is still on the cusp of..

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, February 9, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We are also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend, we’re going to take a look at both daily and weekly charts. But before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to login to the “Trading Trainer” Learning Community web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course, once we’ve logged into the Learning Community Web Portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendations subtab.

Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, February 12’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have a major impact on your trading. You are also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do, click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing contents. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s go right to the Daily Insights tab and Index Stats subtab.

Index Stats

Our trading bias is neutral bullish. Our industrials, shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gained 1.38% today on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange volume and fell 5.21% for this past week on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks, shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index, gained 1.44% today on heavy, above average NASDAQ Exchange volume and fell 5.06% this past week on heavy, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps, shown by the S&P 500 Index, gained 1.49% today and fell 5.16% for this past week.

Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there, shown by the S&P 100, gained 1.48% today and fell 5.35% for the week. Our midcaps, shown by the S&P 400 Index, gained 1.09% today and fell 5.05% this past week. Our small caps, shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, gained 1.09% and 0.96% today, respectively, and fell 4.31% and 4.49% respectively for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 1.1% today and fell 5.19% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index fell 13.15% today and gained 67.88% for this past week. Our gold ETF fell 0.17% today and fell 1.28% for this past week. Our oil ETF fell 1.9% today and fell 9.05% for this past week.

Moving on to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar subtab, team, the first thing I’d like you to do is read today’s Market Reflections summary. Then I’d like to fast forward to Monday, February 12, and please read the Market Focus pointers.

Calendar Feb 12

Also on Monday, February 12, you will find the International Perspective and Simply Economics reports. These once-a-week Econoday reports are very useful. They summarize the economic news from the previous week and forewarn us what to expect for the upcoming week. These are must reads for the weekend. Please check them out.

Back to Friday, February 9.

Calendar Feb 9

Not very much news. Our wholesale trade numbers have inventories, month over month, last time in November, increasing by 0.8%. We revised that number in November for an increase of 0.6%. For December we’re reporting that inventories increased 0.4%.

Fast forwarding to next week. Monday looks to be a fairly quiet economic news day. Only the Treasury Budget is being released in the afternoon. Tuesday as well, a quiet day. We have good news being reported Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. When I say good news, I mean a good amount of news, so a heavy week of economic news starting in the latter half.

Let’s take a look at our Trading Tools tab and our Watch Lists subtab. No tickers were identified by our covered call writing or option trading candidate filters today.

Moving on to our Trading Tools tab and our Daily Picks report generation tool, we’re going to take our index tickers and we’re going to do a deeper dive by taking a look at volume and trends.

Volume Trends

The volume was heavy today, and volume is very much greater than the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages. Our oscillator shows that we’ve had extremely heavy volume for the last trading sessions. Our short duration trends are bearish. Our long duration trends are neutral.

Taking our template algorithm filters, these mathematically go through whatever raw data they are presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of our index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch lists. Our reactive templates are neutral, and those long-term trends that we’ve been watching for months have disappeared.

Template1

Our short-term trend and trend reversal is showing bearishness going on eight days now.

Template 2

Our Bollinger Band Width Index has jumped to 10 and our bar counter shows that we’ve just recently popped out of the bottom of our Bollinger Bands.

Template 3

Taking a look at our charts. We’re going to start with our Quick Review template. This is a six-month, daily chart. It has a linear scale and it uses open high-low close bars. It has a separate pane for volume and volume average. To that we’re going to add the 30, 50, and 200 day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I’ve added those simple moving averages to the Quick Review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’m going to go ahead and apply that template to the index tickers, starting out specifically with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Let’s get right to it. As soon as this chart loads, I’m going to expand it to full screen. We’ll immediately go to our weekly, two-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart

We’ve pulled back extremely in the last week, actually two weeks. Volume is very heavy. The bear has jumped out the window. It looks like we are testing bear on the weekly polarity. Moving to our six-month, daily chart, we clearly have moved to full-on bear, with a little pop up on Wednesday, with our polarity that is.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart

Our 30-day is actually trending down. Our 50-day is flat. Our 200-day is trending up. Our seven-day has crossed down below the 30 and the 50. Our five-minute chart shows a hint that a bottom has been found.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-min chart

We can definitely see some afternoon buying and some professional hour buying going into the weekend. We closed at $24,190.90. It looks like we have a level of support at $23,350 and a level of resistance at $24,750. Let’s write that down. $24,750 and $23,500. The seven is below the 30. The seven is below the 50. The 30 is trending down. Our daily polarity is full-on bearish. Our weekly polarity is testing bear. Now we’re not quite ready to call this a neutral trading bias but we’re getting pretty gosh darn close.

Let’s move on to the NASDAQ. We’ll switch to our weekly, two-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart

In this case, the pullback, also extreme, has not hit a lower low. We’re going to call this polarity still bullish. Heavy volume this week, strong pullback this week. Moving to our six months, daily chart, again we can see the minuscule pop up.

NASDAQ daily chart

Right now that makes our trading daily polarity bearish. Our seven is below our 30. Our seven is below our 50. Our 30 is above the 50. Our 50 is above our 200. Our 50 is flat. Our 30 is down. Let’s take a look at our five-minute chart.

NASDAQ 5-min chart

Again, today looks like the hint that a bottom has been found. We can start our counting method to determine a market bottom. Although we really want it to be an up day, it’s been more of a doji day. Let’s also take a look at our 200-day simple moving average. Our level of support and resistance, looks like we’ll use 6,600. Maybe we’ll use 6,800 and 7,000. Our trading bias remains neutral bullish. Similar to what we saw on the Dow, we’re right on the cusp.

Taking a look at the S&P 500 Index, this is the index I feel like most represents our watch list. Starting with a weekly, two-year chart, again, we’re not quite with a testing bear polarity.

S&P 500 weekly chart

Still two strong down weeks this week on heavy weekly volume. Returning to our six-month, daily chart, our 200 is pointing up, our 30, our 50.

S&P 500 daily chart

Our 30 is actually trending down. Our polarity is bearish. We have a crossing of the seven-day below both the 30 and the 50. Let’s take a look at our five-minute chart.

S&P 500 5-min chart

Our five-minute chart shows similar to the Dow and the NASDAQ where midday we see a reversal up. Our level of support and resistance, you can say we have support at 2,575 and resistance at 2,650. We’re going to keep our neutral bullish trading bias. But again, right on the cusp.

Moving on to our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. Taking a look at our weekly two-year chart, again, a very strong pullback indeed.

New York Stock Exchange weekly Chart

But yet, I’m looking here at this level of support. Here we can see testing bearish for our polarity. For our six-month daily chart, clear on bearish.

New York Stock Exchange daily Chart

Got our seven down below our 30 and our 50. Our 30 is trending down. Our 50 is flat. Our 200 is trending up. We’re going to go ahead and keep a neutral bullish trading bias, but this of all the others is the closest to flipping.

Taking a look at our VIX Volatility Index, moving to a weekly, two-year chart, with a 40-week simple moving average.

VIX weekly chart

Implied volatility soared this week all the way above 50. The VIX is now closed below 30, but it’s still extremely high, especially seeing as how low the 40-week was pulled. Let’s move to our daily chart, six months.

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, January 5, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at the representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Vix Volatility Index. And, because it is the weekend, we’re going to look at both daily and weekly charts. But, before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to log into the Trading Trainer “Learning Community” web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com.

Of course, once we’ve logged into the Learning Community web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab. Further to the Recommendations subtab. Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, January 8’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio’s going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular broad market analysis of this chart of interest video series, let’s click on our index stats subtab.

Team, our trading bias does remain bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.88% today on light, below average New York Stock Exchange volume and gained 2.33% for this past week on heavy, below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.83% today on light, above average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and 3.38% for this past week on heavy, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps shown by the S&P 500 Index gained 0.7% today, and 2.6% for this past week. Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 gained 0.77% today and gained 2.74% for this past week. Our mid caps shown by the S&P 400 index gained 0.41% today and 1.88% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, gained 0.41% and 0.28% today, respectively, and 1.38% and 1.6% for this past week, respectively. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.57% today and 2.3% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index, it was flat today, 0%. For this past week it fell 16.49% to $9.22 per share. Our gold ETF fell 0.1% today and gained 1.36% for this past week. Our oil ETF fell 0.49% today and gained 2.5% for this past week.

Let’s take a look at our economic calendar. To do that we’ll go to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar subtab. Team, the first thing that I need you to do is read today’s Market Reflections summary. Then let’s fast forward to Monday, January 8, and let’s read Monday, January 8’s Market Focus pointers.

The Market Focus pointers are always a good read, as well as the Market Reflections summary, every trading day. Also on Monday, January 8, you can see our International Perspective and our Simply Economics reports. These once a week reports allow us to get a good grip on what happened this past week and what’s coming up for the week to come. They are must-reads. Please take a moment and read through them this weekend.

Coming back to today, Friday, January 5, our employment situation was released.

For November, our non-farm payrolls month-over-month change, we’re at 228,000. We actually revised that November number up considerably to 252,000, but this time around, for December, we’re reporting much lower at 148,000. The unemployment rate back in November, 4.1%. That’s where it stayed in December, 4.1%. Take a look at the participation rate. Back in November, 62.7%. That’s where it stayed for December, 62.7%. The average hourly earnings year-over-year change, in November, 2.5%. We revised that November number down to 2.4%. In December we’re reporting 2.5%. Finally, our average work week. In November, 34.5 hours. In December, staying the same, 34.5 hours.

We also released our international trade numbers. The trade balance level for October was a $48.7 billion deficit. We revised that number to be a little bit higher, $48.9 deficit. In November we’re reporting a $50.5 billion deficit.

Factory orders were released today. In October, the month-over-month change was down 0.1%. We revised that number this time around to be up 0.4%. In November, we’re reporting a gain of 1.3%.

The Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index in November came in at 57.4. the composite index for December came in at 55.9, still above the boom/bust line.

Taking a look at the next week, Monday looks to be a quiet day. Then we start to get into our Producers Price Index and our Consumers Price Index, otherwise known as wholesale and retail inflation. We’ve got our retail sales numbers at the end of the week. It’s a moderate week for news.

Let’s take a look at our Trading Tools tab and our Watch List subtab. We have quite a few tickers identified by both our Covered Call Writing and our Option Trading Candidate filters. We have one candidate not highlighted in yellow. That’s because this ticker symbol is already on our watch list. It’s simply reaffirming its position there. The other candidates in yellow, we will evaluate those for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Taking a look at our trading tools tab and our daily picks subtab, here you’re going to find our Trading Trainer “Daily Picks” report generation tool. We’re going to do a deeper dive on our indexes by looking at volume and trends.

About the same, lower. The 50-day, about the same. The 200-day, about the same. The oscillator, very much lower. Our short duration trends are bullish. Our long duration trends are bullish.

Backing up, we’re going to take a look at our template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality is doing as well as what to look for in our watch lists.

The Reactive, Buffered, and Chaiken trend continuation templates are coming up empty.

However, the long-term simple moving average counts are getting double and triple digits, telling us that the long-term bull trend is real. Taking a look at our trend following templates, namely the short-term trend test and the trend reversal test templates,

they’re all showing bullishness for the last three days. Taking a look at our pattern alteration template, our bar counters have all reset to zero as we have been popping outside of the top of our Bollinger Bands.

Our Bollinger Band width index is increasing again. We’re seeing a lot of eights.

Let’s go to our Trading Tools tab and our Charting subtab. Let’s start with a Quick Review template. This is a six-month, daily chart with a linear scale and open high-low close bars with a separate pane for volume and volume average. To that I like to add my 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I’m going to add these simple moving averages to my Quick Review template in a user-defined template found here in my personal profile. Going to apply that user-defined template to the indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As soon as this chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen so you don’t have to squint to see what I’m looking at.

Let’s start with a weekly, two-year chart. As you can see here, this week was a major up week as investors returned. The volume perked back up even with just four trading days. We have higher highs and higher lows. Our weekly polarity is bullish. Switching to a six-month, daily chart, the last three days have been increasingly stronger in price. Volume has been strong as well.

The 200, 50, 30, and seven-day simple moving averages are all trending up.

Breaking down to a five-minute chart, today our trading,

especially in the afternoon session, was bullish. Moving back to our daily chart, taking a look at our notes, we closed at $25,295.87. Our low was $25,112.01. We’re going to adjust our level of support and resistance in our notes. Our level of support we’ll place at 24,750. Our level of resistance will be a psychological level of resistance at a round number of 25,300. Otherwise, all of our other metrics are pointing at full-on bull, so our trading bias is full-on bull in range expansion.

Moving on to our NASDAQ, starting with a weekly, two-year chart, you can see that this week was a very strong up week on healthy volume for this four-day week.

Moving to a six-month, daily chart, these last four trading days have been extremely positive in the bullish direction.

Our seven, 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages are all trending up. Looking at the five-minute chart, we can see that this was an up day, especially in the morning session.

Late morning through the beginning of professional hour we stalled, and then professional hour we saw some buying. Trading zone from $6,900 to $7,100. We closed at $7,136.56. Our low was $7,097.08. We’re going to take a note here that says “Closed Above Resistance”. Otherwise, our trading bias remains full-on bullish in range expansion.

Switching to our S&P 500 Index, starting with a weekly, two-year chart, we can see that this week has been especially bullish, our volume strong.

Going to a six-month, daily chart, the last four days have been extremely bullish on strong “welcome back” volume.

Our 200, 50, 30, and seven-day simple moving averages are trending bull. Our five-minute chart is trending bull as well.

We closed at $2,743.15. Our low was $2,727.92. Our support and resistance need to be adjusted. We’ll keep the $2,675 as our support and we’ll come to $2,750 for our resistance, which is a psychological round number level. Our trading bias remains bullish. We’re in range expansion.

Moving to our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, looking at the weekly chart, two years worth of data.

An extremely bullish week. Moving to our six-month, daily chart, also strong up days.

We’ll keep our bullish bias.

Moving to the VIX Volatility Index, looking at a weekly, two-year chart with a 40-week simple moving average.

We can see that our implied volatility on the S&P 500 dropped considerably this week to all-time lows. Moving to our six-month, daily chart and a 200-day simple moving average, we can see how low our VIX has gone.

Our VIX was flat today, closing at $9.22 a share.

Our overall trading bias does remain bullish. Our broad market personality is that we’re in a long-term uptrend. We’re emerging from range contraction. I think I’m going to change that to range expansion. I think I’m going to leave it right at that.

The market is responding to the following, including, but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks, US fiscal policy, US Federal Reserve monetary policy; monetary policies of China, Europe, and Japan; price of oil; US economic news including employment, housing, manufacturing, and retail; market news including mergers, acquisitions, initial public offerings, public companies going private, and earnings.

Team, that’s all I’ve got. Please take care.

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Hi team, this is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, December 22, with your Trading Trainer weekend and holiday edition of your daily insights. What we’re going to do here is look at the broad market by looking at representative indexes of our watch list. Namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, and the VIX Volatility Index, and because it is the weekend holiday edition, we’re going to look at both daily and weekly charts.

Before looking at any charts team, we’re going to log into the learning community web portal by going to login.tradingtrader.com, and of course, once we’ve logged into the learning community web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s daily insights tab and further to the recommendation sub-tab. Team, look at the recommendations we have for Tuesday, December 26’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s daily insights and its sub-tabs. Go ahead and click on that link, an audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio, the first time you do click through today’s daily insights, and its sub-tabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments.

In the meantime, for this Broad Market Analysis, of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s go right to the Index Stats sub-tab.

Team, our trading bias does remain bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11% today on light, below average New York Stock Exchange volume. For this past week, it gained 0.42% on light, below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index edged down 0.08% today on light, below average NASDAQ Exchange Volume, and gained 0.34% for this past week on light, below average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps, shown by the S&P 500 Index edged down 0.05% today and gained 0.28% for this past week.

Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 fell 0.12% today and gained 0.2% for this past week. Our mid-caps shown by the S&P 400 Index, edged down 0.03% today and gained 0.95% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, fell 0.3% and 0.27% respectively, for today, and gained 0.72% and 0.82% respectively, for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index edged down 0.02% today and gained 0.77% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index popped 2.91% today, to $9.90, still extremely low and gained 5.1% for this past week. Our Gold ETF gained 0.52% today and gained 1.48% for this past week. Our Oil ETF gained 0.17% today, and gained 1.75% for this past week.

It looks like, today, with the very small price gains on very light volume, that many investors already checked out early for the winter holiday. It also looks like, with the increase in the VIX Volatility Index, and with the Gold and Oil ETFs gaining, that money was put into some safe places so that investors could spend more time perhaps on their personal life than on their investment life. It looks like hedging was taking place in the secondary markets as well as money being moved to the currently more stable commodities.

Team, let’s look at our economic calendar. We’ll do so by going to the Daily Insights tab and further to the Economic Calendar sub-tab.  Team, the first thing I’m going to have you do is read today’s market reflections summary. Then, we’ll go ahead and move to Tuesday, December 26’s, trading session and read the market focus pointers. I’d also like to draw your attention to the Simply Economics and International Perspective reports that are here on the Tuesday, December 26, day.

These are once a week reports that sum up the activity from this past week and what to expect for the week to come. These unbiased reports are weekend reads and should gain your attention. Please check out these reports.

Back to today, Friday, December 22, we had our Durable Goods Orders before the market opened. In October, we had reported that new orders, month over month change, were down 1.2%, year over year, up 1%. We revised those new order numbers for October to only be down 0.4% and year over year to be up 1.9%. In November, we’re reporting that new orders month over month have increased by 1.3% and year over year, we’re up to 8.2% increase. Now, when you factor out the volatile transportation, month over month in October, what we reported was a gain of 0.4%, year over year, 7.4%. We revised those numbers to be higher at 1.3% and 8.6%, but then when you look at November’s numbers, the month over month has shrunk by 0.1% and year over year has dropped to 7%. Finally, narrowing it down to just the core capital goods, month over month in October, we had seen a drop by 0.5% and year over year were at 8.1% gain. We revised those numbers. Instead of a drop of 0.5%, we have a gain of 0.8%, year over year, we have a gain of 9.8%. Then, fast forward to this month, November, that we’re reporting on, we had a drop of 0.1% in the month over month and core capital goods year over year was 8.1%.

Personal Income and Outlays already reported before the market opens, this was one of Alan Greenspan’s favorite economic indicators. Personal income for October was up 0.4%, it was up 0.3% in November. Consumer spending in October up 0.3%. Consumer spending in November, it’s up 0.6% a percent. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, October up 0.1%. November up 0.2%. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, October up 0.2%, November up 0.1%. Here are the numbers that were really looked at, the year over year numbers. First, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index number, 1.6% for October and 1.8% for November. Then the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year over year change. This was the number that Alan Greenspan would make his decisions on raising interest rates on or not. It came in at 1.4% for October and 1.5%, getting warmer, for November.

Looking at New Home Sales. New home sales in October, this is the seasonally adjusted annual rate, 685,000. We revised that number down pretty significantly to 624,000, this time around. Then for November, we had a real pop, 733,000 new homes were sold in November.

Now, looking at our Consumer Sentiment, end of month. Last time we reported 96.8. Now, for the final numbers (that was the mid-month numbers) the final number 95.9, not as strong as originally thought.

We also had our Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index. In November it was 16, in December, it’s 14. Remember zero is the boom bust. Our numbers are going down, slowing down a little bit, but still strong.

Looking at next week, of course Monday is a Holiday, so it’s only a four-day week. Tuesday is going to be a pretty quiet day. Not much economic news being reported. We do have some good news on Wednesday, all before the afternoon session, same with Thursday. Friday is going to be a quiet day as we roll into yet another holiday.

A lot of times the people who stick around for the week between the Christmas Holiday and the New Year’s Holiday are those extreme voices, so a lot of times, the market does interesting things during that week when most of the, if you will, level headed investors, exit the building.

All right, let’s look at our watch list, by going to trading tools, and watch list. Our covered call writing candidate and our option trading candidate filters identified quite a few tickers. We’ll evaluate these new tickers all highlighted in yellow for liquidity and patterns, before adding them permanently to our watch list. Moving on to our Trading Tools tab and our Daily Picks sub-tab. Here you’re going to find our Trading Trainer ‘Daily Picks’ report generation tool. We’re going to do a deeper dive on our indexes by looking at volume and trends.

Our volume was incredibly low today, again a testament to investors checking out early. Our trends across the board show bull.

Looking at our template algorithm filters, these mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers, that’s going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality’s doing as well as what to look for in our watch list. As you can see here with our trend continuations, not really a lot of triggers going on there or confirmations, but we do notice that there is a lot of long term bull trend.

Our trend following templates, the trend reversal and short-term trend test templates, these are showing that there’s some range contraction taking place, but that for the most part, we’re in a bull trend across the board.

Our Bollinger Band width index is getting tighter and tighter. Still wide at eights, but our candlestick bar count is also well into the double digits.

Soon we’ll be in the place where we can see possibly potential breakouts, little ways from that now. We need to let the patterns mature.

Let’s move on to our charting. We’ll go to the Trading Tools tab and the Charting sub-tab. We’ll start with a quick review template. This is a template that has a six-month chart with a linear scale, has open high low close bars, and a separate pane for volume and volume average. To that, we’re going to add our 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have the simple moving averages added to the quick review template here in the user defined area of my personal profile. We’re going to take that user defined template and apply it to our indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once this chart loads, team, I am going to expand it to full screen.

First thing I’m going to do is, because it is the holiday weekend, is go to a two-year, weekly chart.

As you can see, this week was very much a stall week on light volume. Still higher highs, and higher lows tell us we have a weekly bull polarity. Let’s switch to our six-month, daily chart.

This whole past week after gapping up on Monday morning, we stalled. Today was just yet another stall day. Yet our 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages trend up and so does our seven. Volume this week has been incredibly low. Volume today was even lower. Let’s look at our five-minute chart.

Our five-minute chart just shows that we’ve had a week of sideways chop in a very tight range. Back to our daily chart. Let’s go ahead and look at our notes. We closed at $24,754.06. We’re still between our support and resistance lines, everything remains the same. We still have a bullish bias. Again, we do notice that we’re in a moment of range contraction. That means either a top is being found, or more likely it looks like we’re testing the long-term bull trend.

Let’s look at our NASDAQ Exchange. For starting, we’ll go ahead and move over to our two-year, weekly chart where we can see a continuing uptrend.

Again, this week, we see a gap up at open and slow trickle down. Volume was low this week. Moving back to a six-month, daily chart.

Like the Dow, this past five trading days, after a gap up on Monday morning, just basically stalled. Volume decayed away. Still, our 7-day simple moving average is up. Our 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages are all trending up. We’ll look at our five-minute chart.

In our five-minute chart, we can see the sideways chop. Back to our daily chart. Let’s take some notes. We closed at $6,959.96, everything else remains up. Again, we can see the range contraction this week. Still, we’ll keep our bullish bias. We don’t act on leading indicators, we simply take note of them as a trigger and begin to look for lagging indicators. Those lagging indicators are not present.

Let’s look at the S&P 500 Index. This is the index that most represents our watch list. We’ll start with a two-year, weekly chart.

Again, a stall week, but still an up-trending week. Volume was light this past week. Moving to our six-month, daily chart, our 30, 50, and 200 simple moving average continue to point up along with our 7-day simple moving average.

Volume today was low. Volume this past week was low, and again, like the other two of the big three indexes after a gap up on Monday, a sideways choppy channel. Looking at our five-minute chart, we can see the sideways chop in a tight trading range.

Back to our daily chart, looking at our notes. We closed at $2,683.34. Everything remains up and bullish. We are taking note of the range contraction. Either a top is being found, or we’re testing the long-term bull trend. These again are leading indicators. We take note of the trigger and we again look for lagging indicators which are nowhere near being confirmed.

Looking at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. Looking at the weekly, two-year chart.

It continues to move up. Switching back to our six-month, daily chart, the 7, 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages continuing to trend up.

Even on the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, we can see the gap up on Monday, and the stall. It is the range contraction for this past week. Our trading bias remains bullish.

Moving on to the VIX Volatility Index. We are starting with a weekly, two-year chart, with a 40-week simple moving average.

We can see that the implied volatility moved around, but is incredibly low, and is well below the 40-week moving average. Switching to a six-month, daily chart, with a 200-day simple moving average.

The 200-day simple moving average is analogous to the 40-week simple moving average seeing as how there are five trading days per week. It shows that the implied volatility for the last five trading days has been well below and is even pulling down on what we call the mean, or the 200-day simple moving average. There is some chop. We ended today with a little bit of an increase as people hedge before they go away for the holiday. Our VIX is up 2.91%, closing at $9.90.

Our overall trading bias is bullish.

Our broad market personality is trending up, and over bought. We’re in range contraction. We basically have confusion and uncertainty among investors.

The market is responding to the following, including but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks (whatever is in the news headline at the moment), US fiscal policy or lack thereof, US Federal Reserve Monetary..

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Hi Team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, December 8, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We are also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. And because it is the weekend, we’re going to look at both daily and weekly charts. But before looking at any charts, team, we’re going to login to the Trading Trainer “Learning Community” web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. And of course, once we have logged into the “Learning Community” web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendation sub-tab.

Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, December 11’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights and its sub-tabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background, in another browser tab or another browser window, depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its sub-tabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own, after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s click on our Index Stats.

Team, our trading bias remains bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.49% today on light, below average New York Stock Exchange volume, and for this past week it gained 0.40% on light, below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. The tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.40% today on light, below average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and for this past week fell 0.11% on light, below average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps shown by the S&P 500 Index gained 0.55% today and gained 0.35% for this past week.

Moving on to our secondary indexes. Our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 gained 0.53% today and 0.40% for this past week. Our mid caps shown by the S&P 400 Index gained 0.39% today and fell 0.20% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, edged down 0.05% and edged up 0.09% respectively for today, and fell 0.98% and 0.99% respectively for this past week. The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.58% today and gained 0.23% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index fell 5.71% today and fell 16.19% for this past week to an incredible low of 9.58. Our gold ETF edged down 0.01% today and fell 2.56% for this past week. And our oil ETF gained 1.41% today and fell 1.54% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our Economic Calendar by going to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar sub-tab. Team, the first thing I need you to do is read today’s Market Reflections summary, and then let’s fast forward to Monday, December 11, and read our Market Focus Pointers.

Also, on Monday, December 11, we have our International Perspective and Simply Economics reports. These once-a-week reports give us an idea of what happened the previous week and what to expect for the week to come. These foundational, unbiased reports are worth our read over the weekend.

Back to Friday, December 8.

The employment situation was released. For October, non-farm payrolls month-over-month change were at 261,000. We revised that October number down to 244,000. For November, it came in at 228,000, higher than expectations. Our unemployment rate in October was at 4.1% and that’s where it stayed for November. Our participation rate was at 62.7% in October and that’s where it stayed for November. Our average hourly earnings month-over-month change in October was flat. That number was revised down to a drop of 0.1%. And then for November, we see a gain of 0.2%. The average hourly earnings year-over-year change in October was up 2.4%. We revised that number to be only up 2.3%, and then the November number shows being up 2.5%. The average work week in October was 34.4 hours. In November, it’s 34.5 hours. Consumer sentiment was reported. Last time we reported 98.5. This time we’re reporting 96.8. And wholesale trade was reported. Inventories, the month-over-month change in September were up 0.3%. We revised that number to be up only 0.1%. And then for October, inventories actually shrunk by 0.5%.

Again, taking a look at next week. Monday we have our job opening and labor turnover survey report. Tuesday and Wednesday we have our Federal Open Market Committee meeting happening, beginning on Tuesday, ending on Wednesday. We have our wholesale and our retail inflation. We have import and export prices. We have our retail sales and our manufacturing numbers. It’s a busy week for economic news.

Let’s take a look at our watch list by going to Trading Tools tab and the Watch List sub-tab. Our Option Trading candidate filter has quite a few tickers that are reaffirming their position on our watch list. They are already there. The ones that are new are highlighted in yellow in both our Covered Call Writing and our Option Trading candidate filter. We will evaluate these new tickers for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Trading Tools tab and our Daily Picks sub-tab. Here you can find our Trading Trainer Daily Picks report generation tool. We are going to do a deeper dive on our indexes by taking a look at volume and trends.

Our volume is about the same, slightly lower, compared to Thursday. It is about the same as the 50-day simple moving average, slightly lower. It is about the same as the 200-day simple moving average, and especially on the New York Stock Exchange is lower. The oscillator compared to the oscillator average is lower. Today looks like it was a little bit of a lackadaisical day in the markets. Short duration trends are somewhere between neutral and bearish. Long duration trends are for the most part bullish.

And back this up a notch, let’s invoke our templates. These template algorithm filters mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers. That is going to give us an idea what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch list.  Our trend continuations are showing a little bit of bullishness.

Our short-term trend test is showing a little bit of uncertainty: Are we bull? Are we bear? Zero days of trend in one direction or the other.

Our Bollinger Band Width indexes are wide. We’ve got 7’s, 9’s, 10’s. Our bar count is single digits.

Team, let’s take a look at our charts. We’ll start with our Quick Review template. This is a six-month daily chart, linear scale with open-high-low-close bars and a separate pane for volume and volume average. And to that Quick Review template, I’m going to add the 30, the 50, and the 200 day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I’m going to add these lagging indicators to the Quick Review template in a user-defined template found here in my personal profile. I’m going to apply this user-defined template to the indexes, specifically starting out with a Dow Jones Industrial Average.

As soon as this chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen. And we’ll begin, because it is the weekend, with a weekly two-year chart.

You can see that we went high again, although it’s not a classic S-bar. It is higher than the previous close. Volume was a little bit less. Still, higher highs, higher lows. We have a weekly bullish bias on the Down Jones Industrial Average. Let’s switch to a six-month daily chart.

30, 50, 200, all trending up. Today was an up day on lighter volume. Our 7 day continues to trend up and is oriented above the 30 and the 50. Switching over to a five-minute chart.

Our five-minute chart shows morning gains and then afternoon stall with some bargain buying right in the last few minutes of professional hour. Back to our daily chart. Let’s take a look at some notes. We closed at $24,329.16. All is up. All is bullish.

Moving to the NASDAQ, starting with a weekly two-year chart.

The NASDAQ was basically a stall this week. Still, one stall week doesn’t make a down market. In fact, it’s well within the ascending channel. Higher highs, higher lows keep us with a bullish polarity on the weekly chart. Switching back to the six-month daily chart.

Today, we gapped up and slid down during the day. Our 7 is still oriented above the 30 and the 50. Today was a light volume day. Our 200 continues to trend up. Our five-minute chart shows the gap up and then the slow profit-taking throughout the day.

Back to our daily chart. We closed at $6,840.08. Our low $6,831.61. We’ll have to identify where we have our support and our resistance. It looks like we have resistance at $6,760, and it looks like we have support at $6,900. And with these readjustment here, we’ve got a new boundary condition. Otherwise, everything is up and everything is bullish. Higher highs and higher lows.

Let’s move on to the S&P 500 Index, the index I feel like most represents our watch list. We’ll go to our weekly two-year chart, and we see that this week was a stall week but was still above the previous week.

Still a bullish polarity. Moving to our six-month daily chart.

Today we gapped up and continued up. Light volume. 200’s up. 50 day is up. 30 day is up. 7 day is up. Our five-minute chart shows our gap up and some of the gains in the morning session.

Actually looks just like it was a choppy session. Again in the last 10 minutes of trading, we saw some bargain buying. Back to our daily chart. $2,651.50 was our closing price. Our low is $2,644.10. We’ll go ahead and say, “Closed above resistance.” Yes, yes, yes, yes. Up, up, up. Bullish, bullish.

Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index has all of our simple moving averages moving up. We’ll start with our weekly two-year chart, where we continue to see upward movement.

Bullish indeed. Again, back to our six-month daily chart.

Our 30 is up. Our 50 is up. Our 200 is up. Our trading bias remains bullish.

Taking a look at our VIX Volatility Index, starting with a weekly two-year chart with a 40-week simple moving average.

We are ending the week clearly below the 40-week simple moving average at all-time lows. Moving to a six-month daily chart with a 200-day simple moving average, which is similar to the 40-week simple moving average, simply because 40 weeks when there are five days per week adds up to 200 days.

Over the last two days, our implied volatility has dropped as people felt comfortable relinquishing their hedges. Today, we dropped 5.71% to close at 9.58.

Our overall trading bias does remain bullish.

Our broad market personality is trending up. We are overbought. We have been seeing light volume. Confusion and uncertainty among investors.

By the way, next Friday is options expiration day, and so it’s important that if we’re trying to trade any long positions this upcoming week, that we go out to our January options or even further, as there’s no more premium and expiration is looming very close with expiration next Friday. So it’s time to roll out your options and your plans.

The market is responding to the following, including but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks, the U.S. fiscal policy, the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy which there’s a FOMC meeting next week, the monetary policies of China, Europe, and Japan, the price of oil, U.S. economic news including employment, housing, manufacturing, and retail, and of course the market news including mergers, acquisitions, initial public offerings, public companies going private, and earnings.

That’s all I’ve got, team. Please take care.

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, February 2, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at the representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Down Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We are also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend, we’re going to look at both daily and weekly charts.

But before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to login to the Trading Trainer Learning Community Web Portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course, once you’ve logged into the Learning Community Web Portal, team, I want to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab, and further to the Recommendations subtab. Team, take a look at the recommendations for Monday, Feb 5. You’re also going to find an audio commentary here. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window, depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own, after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments.

In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Chart of Interest video series, let’s start right at our Index Stats subtab.

Index Stats

Our trading bias remains Bullish. Our industrials, shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell 2.54% today on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange volume and fell 4.12% for this past week on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks, shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index, fell 1.96% today on heavy, above average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and fell 3.53% for this past week on heavy, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps, shown by the S&P 500 Index, fell 2.12% today and fell 3.85% for this past week. Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 fell 2.19% today and fell 3.87% for this past week. Our midcaps, shown by the S&P 400 Index, fell 2.02% today and 3.88% for this past week. Our small caps, shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, fell 2.12% and 2.06% respectively for today, and fell 3.68% and 3.78% respectively for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index fell 2.22% today and fell 4.05% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index shot up 28.51% for today and shot up 55.95% for this past week. Our gold ETF fell 1.31% today and fell 1.31% for this past week. Our oil ETF fell 1.51% today and fell 1.51% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar by going to our Economic Calendar subtab. First thing I’d like you to do, team, is take a look at the Market Reflections summary. Then I’d like you to fast forward to Monday, February 5, and take a look at the Market Focus pointers.

Calendar Feb 5th

Also on Monday, February 5, you will see our International Perspective Report and our Simply Economics Report. These two reports are must-reads for the weekend. They take into consideration what happened the previous week and talk about what to expect for the week to come. Take a moment over the weekend and review these reports.

Going back to today, Friday, February 2, we released our employment situation.

Calendar Feb 2nd

In December, non-farm payrolls were up 148,000. We revised that number to be up 160,000. In January, we reported up 200,000. Our unemployment rate in December, 4.1%. That’s where it stayed in January. Our participation rate in December was 62.7%. That’s what it was in January as well. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% in December. We revised that number this time around to actually be an increase of 0.4%, and then increased another 0.3% in January. Year over year, average hourly earnings in December were up 2.5%, revised this time around to be 2.7%, and in January, 2.9%. The average work week went down slightly. In December, it was 34.5 hours, in January, 34.3 hours.

Consumer sentiment was reported. This is the final numbers for January. We’re reporting 95.7. Prior was 94.4.

Our factory orders were reported. In November, month over month change was up 1.3%. We revised that November number this time around to be up 1.7%. That’s where we came in at December, 1.7%.

Looking to next week, Monday looks like a quiet day. We have our services indexes being reported. Tuesday, International Trade and the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey. Otherwise, again, a quiet day. Actually, the week looks somewhat quiet as well.

Team, let’s take a look at our watch list by going to our Trading Tools tab and our Watch List subtab. We do have a couple tickers identified by our option trading candidate filter. The one that is not highlighted is already on our watch list. It’s simply reaffirming its position there. The other one we will evaluate for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Daily Picks report generation tool, we’ll do a deeper dive on our indexes by looking at volume and trends.

Price Volume

Our volume for today, not so exciting, similar to yesterday and similar to the simple moving averages. Our short-duration trends are bearish. Our long-duration trends are bullish. When I see that, I’m thinking that I’ve either found myself a top or I’m testing the long-term bull trend. Only maturity of these patterns will differentiate which of those they are. That is quite important to know, as they are opposite patterns.

Now I’d like to use my template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with looking for patterns in the numbers. I’m going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers. That’s going to give me an idea what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch list. We’ve had such a pullback against the long-term trend that our reactive template is triggering.

Template1

So is our Chaiken template.

Template2

These are called trend continuation templates, basically telling us that the leading indicators are extremely oversold. The next piece is to see a confirmation, where our lagging indicators say that we’ve resumed our trend in the up direction.

Template3

Notice how long the bull trend has been. Our short-duration trend and our trend reversal template are showing full-on bearishness for the last three or four trading days. Our Bollinger Band Width Index is tightening up. We’re still in the sixes and sevens. Our bar counters are in double digits, as we’re in a moment of range contraction.

Team, let’s go to Trading Tools tab and our Charting subtab. We’ll start with the Quick Review Template. This is a six-month, daily chart. We have a linear scale and we’re using open high-low close bars. We have a separate pane for volume and volume average. To that I add my 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have these simple moving averages added to the Quick Review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’m going to apply that template to the indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once the chart loads, team, I will expand it to full screen.

As you can see, we are having a correction. In fact, today was an extreme correction. Our first analysis will be to go to a weekly, two-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart

As you can see here, this was a down week. But if you look at the overall trend, we actually simply went from resistance of our ascending channel down to support. We still have a bullish polarity. Volume this week was heavy. Returning to a six-month, daily chart, today was a very down day, closing below the 30-day simple moving average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart

Still, our simple moving averages are trending up. The seven-day has caught up with price and has turned down, but yet no crossing. A couple down days does not make a down market; a healthy trend retrace. They have moments of range contraction. Team, let’s take a look at the five-minute chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-minute chart

Team, compared to the previous days of trading, where we had gaps down and then sideways choppy movement, today was a full-on broad market selloff. People are taking profits. We closed at $25,520.96. Our level of support is at $24,750. Our level of resistance is at $26,000. Otherwise, we still have a bullish polarity across the board. Our bias is bullish. We’re in a retracement, a range contraction.

Let’s take a look at our NASDAQ. We’ll start with a weekly, two-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart

Similar to the Dow, this week was a heavy down week on heavy volume. Yet, we closed above support of the ascending channel. Our polarity remains bullish. Returning to the six-month, daily chart, our seven has turned but has not crossed the 30 or the 50.

NASDAQ daily chart

Price is still above the 30, 50, and 200. They are all trending up. Our lagging indicators are not switching from bullish yet. We have a higher high and we still have a higher low. Our polarity is bullish. Taking a look at our five-minute chart, again a broad market selloff today compared to the other days, which were sideways choppy, profit taking on the table.

NASDAQ 5-minute chart

We closed at $7,240.95. We have support at $7,150. We have resistance at $7,300. Our trading bias still remains bullish. We’re in a retracement. We’re in range contraction.

S&P 500 Index. This is the index I feel like most represents our watch list. We will start with a weekly, two-year chart.

S&P 500 weekly chart

We pulled back greatly this week, but still, our close was above the ascending level of support. Our weekly polarity remains bullish. Returning to a six-month, daily chart, we can see today was a down day today, closing right at the 30-day simple moving average.

S&P 500 daily chart

The 30, 50, 200 remain trending up. Our seven now is lagging price in the down direction but still hasn’t made any crossings. Again, price retracements and range contraction is actually healthy for any trend. Going to a five-minute chart, we see our selloff today compared to the sideways chop of the last days before.

S&P 500 5-minute chart

People took profits. We closed at $2,762.12. Our resistance is at $2,750. Our support is at $2,800. Our trading bias still remains bullish. Our polarity, our higher highs and higher lows, still remains bullish. Again, a week of down actually strengthens and reinvigorates a trend.

New York Stock Exchange Composite Index starting with a weekly, two-year chart.

New York Stock Exchange weekly chart

Again, a down week, as we saw across the board. Still, support is below where we closed. Switching to a six-month, daily chart.

New York Stock Exchange daily chart

We really took a beating today, with the close well below the 30-day simple moving average. Still, the 30-day remains trending up. So does the 50 and the 200-day. We’re going to keep our bullish trading bias.

Taking a look at the VIX Volatility Index, beginning with a weekly, two-year chart with a 40-week simple moving average.

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Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.

This Episode’s Panel:

– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com

— Steven Place of Investing With Options

The post Timing Research Show, Analyze Your Trade Episode #18 appeared first on Trading Trainer.

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, January 26 with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes on our watchlist, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend we’re going to take a look at both daily and weekly charts. But, before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to log into the Trading Trainer Learning Community web portal by going to login.TradingTrainer.com and of course once we’ve logged into the Learning Community web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendations subtab. Team, take a look at the Recommendations we have for Monday, January 29’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments.

In the meantime, for this particular broad market analysis of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s go right to the Index Stats subtab.

Index Stats

Our trading bias remains bullish. Our industrials, shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gained 0.85% today on light, below average New York Stock Exchange volume, and gained 2.09% for this past week on light, below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 1.28% today on flat, above average NASDAQ exchange volume, and gained 2.31% for this past week on heavy, above average NASDAQ exchange weekly volume. And, our large caps, shown by the S&P 500 Index gained 1.18% today and gained 2.23% for this past week.

Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 Index gained 1.27% today and 2.27% for this past week. Our midcaps, shown by the S&P 400 Index gained 0.4% today and 0.81% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 Index and the Russell 2000 Index, two different perspectives on our small caps, gained 0.31% and 0.4% today, and gained 0.36% and 0.65% for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.92% today, and gained 1.89% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index fell 4.32% today, and fell 1.69% for this past week. Our gold ETF edged up 0.08% today and gained 1.31% for this past week. Our oil ETF gained 1.38% today and 4.09% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar by going to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar subtab. First thing I would like you to do is on today’s heading, read the Market Reflection summary. Then, fast forward to the Monday, January 29 heading and read the Market Focus pointers.

Calendar January 29th

Also, read the once a week reports labeled International Perspective and Simply Economics. These two reports are must-reads. They include information about last week, as well as what to expect for this upcoming week. Take a moment over the weekend and review these reports.

Let’s go back to today, Friday, January 26.

Calendar January 26th

Our durable goods orders were released. New orders for November month over month were 1.3%. We revised that up to 1.7%. And, for December, 2.9%. Year over year new orders were 8.2% in November, revised up to 8.7%. And, in December, 11.5%. Now when we factor out the volatile transportation, month over month in November was down 0.1%. We revised that up to be up 0.3%. And, for December, up 0.6%. That means year over year when we factor out the volatile transportation, in November we were up 7%, revised up to be 7.5%. And, in December we were up 8.2%. Now, when we really narrow it down to just the core capital goods, month over month in November we were down 0.1%. We revised that number to be up 0.2%. And, in December we were down 0.3%. That means year over year in November, we were up 8.1%. We revised that number to be up 8.4%. And, in December we’re at 8.4% as well.

Taking a look at our gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, last time we reported our real gross domestic product, quarter over quarter change, seasonally adjusted annual rate at 3.2%. This time we’re reporting 2.6%. The gross domestic product price index, quarter over quarter change, seasonally adjusted annual rate was 2.1% last time, and 2.4% this time. And, our real consumer spending, quarter over quarter change, seasonally adjusted annual rate was 2.2%. It is 3.8% this time.

Our international trade in goods, last time we had a deficit of $69.7 billion. That was in November. We revised that to be even higher. We revised it to be a $70 billion deficit. And in December, we’re reporting a $71.6 billion deficit.

Fast forwarding to next week, we have good economic news all throughout the week starting with Monday early in the morning with Personal Income and Outlays. We have a FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday, ends on Wednesday. And, we have our employment numbers throughout the last half of the week.

Let’s take a look at our watchlist by going to our Trading Tools tab and our Watchlist subtab. You can see we have quite a few tickers identified by our option trading candidate filter. The ones that are not highlighted in yellow are already on our watchlist, simply reaffirming our position there. The ones highlighted in yellow, we need to evaluate them for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Daily Picks report generation tool. Doing a deeper dive on our indexes by taking a look at volume and trends.

Volume and Trends

Our volume was about the same as it was yesterday, about the same as the 50-day, and about the same as the 200-day. It has been strong, and the short and the long duration trends have been bullish. Backing this up, taking a look at our template algorithm filters, these mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present it with the raw data of our index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watchlist.

Template1 20180126

As you can see here, our trend continuation templates are coming up empty, but the long duration trends are in high double digits if not in triple digits.

Template2 20180126

Our short term trend test and trend reversal tests are showing basically that we’re in a moment of range contraction.

Template3 20180126

Our 5-day simple moving average count is showing a strong movement in the short duration. We still have large Bollinger Band Width Indexes, and our bar count is still in the single digits.

Team, let’s take a look at our Trading Tools and our Charting subtab. We’ll start off with our Quick Review template. This is a 6-month, daily chart. It has a linear scale and it uses open-high-low-close bars. To that I’d like to add our 30-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I’ve applied these simple moving averages to my Quick Review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’m going to apply this user-defined template to the index tickers, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once this chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen so you don’t have to squint.

We’re going to start by looking at a weekly, 2-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart

This week was a fantastic up week on healthy volume. Our polarity is bullish. Zooming into our 6-month, daily chart, today was a nice S-bar, although volume was light.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart 20180126

Our simple moving averages are all trending up. Let’s take a look at our 5-minute chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-min chart 20180126

Our 5-minute chart shows nice gains today, especially in the afternoon and during professional hour. Taking a look at our notes, we closed at $26,616.71. Our low was $26,425.35. We will take a note that says, “Closed above resistance.” Otherwise, our lagging indicators are still pointing at bullish. We’re in range expansion.

Moving on to the NASDAQ Composite Index. Zooming out to a weekly, 2-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart

Again, a beautiful S-bar week on nice volume. Our weekly polarity is bullish. Zooming into our 6-month, daily chart, we’ve had a bit of a stall this week after some early week gains and a nice finish today.

NASDAQ daily chart

Volume was healthy. Our simple moving averages are all trending up. Zooming into our 5-minute chart, we can see a nice uptrend day today.

NASDAQ 5-min chart

Back to our daily chart. We closed at $7,505.77. Our low was at $7,431.22. We’ll take a note that says, “Closed above resistance.” All our other lagging indicators are pointing at a bullish trading bias, and our personality is range expansion.

Moving on to the S&P 500 Index. This is the index I feel like most represents our watchlist. Zooming out to a weekly, 2-year.

S&P 500 weekly chart

Beautiful S-bar week on healthy volume. Our polarity is bullish. Zooming into a 6-month, daily chart.

S&P 500 daily chart

Beautiful S-bar day after a handful of stall days starting off the week quite bullish. Volume dipping down but still healthy. Our simple moving averages are all trending in the bullish direction. Zooming into our 5-minute chart, we see a healthy uptrend today.

S&P 500 5-min chart

Zooming out to our daily chart, we closed at $2,872.87. Our low was $2,846.18. We’ll take a note that says, “Closed above resistance.” Our lagging indicators are pointing at bullish. Our trading bias is range expansion.

Moving on to the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. Zooming out to a weekly, 2-year chart.

New York Stock Exchange weekly chart

Beautiful S-bar. Nice weekly polarity in the bullish direction. Zooming into a 6-month, daily chart, again, beautiful S-bar closing out the week.

New York Stock Exchange daily chart

Our trading bias remains bullish.

Our VIX Volatility Index. Zooming out to a weekly, 2-year chart with a 40-week simple moving average.

VIX weekly chart

Our VIX is higher than our simple moving average, despite closing a little bit down. Our simple moving average is incredibly low as it has been pulled down over the previous months. Still, it looks like there’s been some additional hedging on the top end of the scale for what is usual in this most unusual time.

Zooming into our 6-month daily chart, switching to a 200-day simple moving average, you can see here a little bit clearly that the VIX is resting above that simple moving average, and yet it still is incredibly low.

VIX daily chart

The VIX closed down 4.15%. Closed at $11.10.

Our overall trading bias does remain bullish.

Our broad market personality does remain in a long term uptrend with range expansion, and of course our leading indicators are overbought.

Our market is responding to the following, including but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks. US fiscal policy or lack thereof. US Federal Reserve monetary policy. As we mentioned there’s a monetary policy meeting coming up this week. Monetary policies of China, Europe, and Japan. The price of oil steadily creeping up. US economic news including employment, housing, manufacturing, and retail, and of course market news, including mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, public companies going private, and earnings.

That’s all I’ve got, team. Please take care.

The post Broad Market Analysis – January 26, 2018 appeared first on Trading..

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, January 19, with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We are also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Vix Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend, we’re going to take a look at both daily and weekly charts.

Before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to login to the Trading Trainer Learning Community web portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course, once we’ve logged into the Learning Community web portal, team, I’m going to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab, and further to the Recommendations subtab. Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, January 22’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Charts of Interest video series, let’s go right to our Index Stats subtab.

Index Stats 20180119

Our trading bias does remain bullish. Our industrials, shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gained 0.21% today on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange volume. For this past week, it gained 1.04% on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks, shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index, gained 0.55% today on flat, above average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and for this past week, gained 1.04% on flat, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps shown by the S&P 500 Index gained 0.44% today and for this past week gained 0.68%.

Moving on to our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 Index gained 0.33% today and 0.9% for this past week. Our midcaps, shown by the S&P 400 Index, gained 1.07% today and 0.67% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, gained 1.48% and 1.33% respectively for today, and gained 0.71% and 0.36% respectively for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.51% today and gained 0.68% for this past week. Our VIX Volatility Index fell 7.77% today and gained 10.93% for this past week, closing at $11.27 per share. Our gold ETF gained 0.44% today and fell 0.43% for this past week. Our oil ETF fell 0.31% today and fell 1.17% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar by going to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar subtab. The first thing that I am going to have you do is take a look at today’s Market Reflections summary. After you’ve read today’s Market Reflections summary, please fast forward to Monday, January 22’s trading session and click on the Market Focus pointers. Read these pointers closely. Also on Monday, January 22nd, you’ll see the once a week International Perspective and Simply Economics reports.

Calendar Jan 22

These two reports do come out weekly. They are perfect reads for the weekend. It’s good for us to take those under our advisement as they summarize what happened the previous week and talk about what’s coming up for the week to come with respect to economic news, both domestically and internationally. These are must-reads.

Let’s go back to today, Friday, January 19.

Calendar Jan 19

Consumer sentiment was released. Last time we reported 95.9. This time a little bit lower, 94.4. That’s all we reported this week. A lot of focus was on whether or not the US federal government would be shutting down moving forward. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for the week to come. Monday should be a very quiet economic news day. Same with Tuesday. Starting Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, we’ve got some economic news queued up. A lot of news. We will probably pay attention to whether or not the federal government in the United States actually does shut down.

Let’s move forward. Let’s take a look at our Trading Tools tab and our Watch List subtab. Quite a few tickers identified by both our covered call writing and our option trading candidate filters. The candidates that are not highlighted in yellow are already on our watch list. They’re simply reaffirming their position there. The other candidates that are highlighted in yellow, we need to evaluate their liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Trading Tools tab and our Daily Picks subtab, here you’re going to find the Trading Trainer “Daily Picks Report Generation” tool. We’re going to do a deeper dive on our indexes by looking at volume and trends.

Volume Trends 20180119

Our volume is about the same as it was yesterday and about the same as the 50-day simple moving average. The New York Stock Exchange is slightly higher than the 200-day simple moving average. The NASDAQ is slightly higher as well. The oscillator shows that we’ve had consistent volume on the heavier side for this past week. As you can see here, our short and long-duration trends are clearly bullish.

Now let’s take a look and use our template algorithm filters. These filters mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of our index tickers. This is going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch list. As you can see here, our trend continuation templates are all neutral.

Template 1

However, our long-term trend counts are extremely high, again reinforcing the long-term bull trend. Looking at our trend following templates applied to the indexes, our trend reversals are full-on bullish.

Template 2

Our short-term trend test is mixed between neutral and bullish, telling us that some of our candidates may be in a phase of range contraction versus range expansion.

Template 3

Taking a look at our sideways channeling pattern alteration template, our Bollinger Band Width Indexes are all very wide, pegging the 10 bar max. Our bar count is in the single digits.

Let’s take a look at our Trading Tools tab and our Charting subtab. We’ll start with our Quick Review template. This is a six-month, daily chart with a linear scale and open high-low close bars. We’ll also have a separate pane for volume and volume average. To this we’re going to add our 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have these simple moving averages added to the Quick Review template here in a user-defined template in my personal profile. I’m going to apply this user-defined template to my indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once this template loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen. That way you won’t have to squint to see these.

First thing we’ll do, because it is the weekend, is take a look at a weekly, two-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly chart

We can see, again, another high established, this time, a doji bar. Still higher highs, higher lows, good volume. Even on a four-day week, our polarity and trend on the weekly chart is bullish. Moving back to a six-month, daily chart, it looks as if the days have been a moment of range contraction but not enough to call this a top, not at this point.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart

Our trends are all trending up. Our volume is healthy. Our polarity is bullish. Let’s take a look at our five-minute chart. Our five-minute chart, today, shows simple sideways chop.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-min chart

In fact, it’s not even chop; it’s just sideways movement. Back to our daily chart. Let’s take some notes. We closed at $26,071.72. That means we’re still above resistance. Our low was at $25,942.83. It looks like we’ve established a level here. It looks like our level could be $26,000, and our resistance obviously would go to the next highest number. In this case let’s go with 26,500. All other indicators are pointing up. Our bias is bullish. We have a bull trend with current range contraction.

Moving to the NASDAQ, starting with a weekly, two-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart

Again, another up week, although this was a doji bar week. Polarity is up. Volume looks good, especially for a four-day week. Switching back to a six-month, daily chart, our trends are pointing up.

NASDAQ daily chart

We seem to be trending in range expansion versus range contraction. Let’s take a look at our five-minute chart.

NASDAQ 5-min chart

Today we had a gentle trend. We’ve had trends for the last three days. Let’s move back to our daily chart, take some notes. We closed at $7,336.38. Our low was $7,297.29. Going to take a note here, “closed above resistance.” Until we get a complete open high-low close bar outside of our zone, we will not be adjusting our support and resistance numbers. Still, everything is bullish. We’re in range expansion. All of our lagging indicators are pointing up.

Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 Index. This is the index I feel like most represents our watch list. We’ll start with a weekly, two-year chart.

S&P 500 weekly chart

Same as the other two, we can see a doji bar, but an up week nevertheless. Good volume even for a four-day week. We have our bullish polarity pointing up. Let’s switch to our six-month, daily chart.

S&P 500 daily chart

Here you can see mostly an uptrend with a little hint at running out of gas. Range contraction. As for today, we’ve started the range expansion again. Our simple moving averages are pointing up. Take a look at the five-minute chart, our five-minute chart shows that we stalled for most of today until the end of the day.

S&P 500 5-min chart

Late afternoon into professional hour we trended up. Back to our daily chart, let’s take some notes. We closed at $2,810.30. Our low was $2,798.08. Again, we’ll take a note, “closed above resistance.” We won’t adjust our support and resistance levels until we’ve got a complete open high-low close bar outside of the zone. Our trading bias remains bullish. We’re in range expansion.

Take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. Looking at our weekly, two-year chart, everything’s pointing up.

New York Stock Exchange weekly chart

Switching back to our six-month, daily chart, again range expansion.

New York Stock Exchange daily chart 20180119

Our lagging indicators are all pointing up. We’ll keep our trading bias at bullish.

Looking at the Vix Volatility Index, starting with a weekly, two-year chart, looking at a 40-week simple moving average, we can see that the implied volatility has increased.

VIX weekly chart

In fact, we are above our 40-week simple moving average. It looks like we’re getting some activity in the secondary market as some investors seem to be hedging against any surprise price action, maybe leading into the earnings or maybe just because we’re extremely, extremely overbought. Let’s move to our daily, six-month chart.

VIX daily chart

We’ll use a 200-day simple moving..

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Hi, team. This is A.J. Brown with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, January 12, with your Trading Trainer weekend and holiday edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the broad market by taking a look at representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Down Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the VIX Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend holiday edition, we’re going to look at both daily and weekly charts. But, before looking at any charts, team, we’re actually going to login to the Trading Trainer Learning Community Web Portal by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course, once we’ve logged in to the Learning Community Web Portal, team, I want to direct you right to today’s Daily Insights tab and further to the Recommendations subtab.

Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Tuesday, January 16’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. You’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing automagically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s Daily Insights tab and its subtabs. It will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments. In the meantime, for this particular Broad Market Analysis of this Chart of Interest video series, let’s go right to the Index Stats subtab.

Index Stats

Our trading bias remains bullish. Our industrials, shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gained 0.89% today on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange volume, and gained 2.01% for this past week on heavy, above average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks, shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index, gained 0.68% today on flat, above average NASDAQ Exchange volume, and gained 1.74% for this past week on flat, above average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Our large caps shown by the S&P 500 Index gained 0.67% today and 1.57% for this past week.

Let’s take a look at our secondary indexes. Our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 gained 0.71% today and 1.56% for this past week. Our midcaps, shown by the S&P 400 Index, gained 0.27% today and 1.53% for this past week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, gained 0.37% and 0.33% respectively for today, and gained 2.11% and 2.05% respectively for this past week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 0.63% today and 1.46% for this past week. Our Vix Volatility Index gained 2.83% today and 10.2% for this past week., closing at still a remarkable low of $10.16. Our gold ETF gained 1.21% today and 1.3% for this past week, and our oil ETF gained 1.34% today and 4.55% for this past week.

Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar. We’ll go to our Daily Insights tab and our Economic Calendar subtab. First thing I’m going to have you do, team, is read today’s Market Reflections summary. Then, let’s fast forward to Tuesday, January 16.

Calendar, January 16

You’ll see here our Market Focus pointers. Read through that. Also you will see the International Perspective and the Simply Economics reports. These once-a-week reports are worthy of your time spent over the weekend going through them thoroughly. They summarize what happened the previous week and discuss what’s planned for the week to come. They are must-read reports.

Let’s move back to today, Friday, January 12.

Calendar, January 12

The Consumer Price Index was released. In November the month over month was 0.4%. The year over year was 2.2%. Factoring out food and energy in November, the month over month was 0.1%. The year over year was 1.7%. Fast forwarding to December, the Consumer Price Index, otherwise known as retail inflation, month over month was 0.1%, and year over year, 2.1%. When you factor out the more volatile food and energy, the month over month came in at 0.3%, the year over year, 1.8%.

Taking a look at the once-a-month retail sales reports. Our November numbers for retail sales was up 0.8%. That November number was revised to be up 0.9%. For December, we’re reporting up only 0.4%. Factoring out the automobile sales, in November they were up 1%. We revised the November numbers this time around. The November numbers this time are coming in at 1.3%, a little bit better. Then the December numbers came in much lower at 0.4%. Finally, factoring out the volatile automobile and gas sales, for November we reported 0.8%. We went back and revised that number to be up 1.2%. Our December numbers were only up 0.4%.

Taking a look at business inventories. Month over month for October, we were down 0.1%. We revised that number to be flat. In November, we’re reporting business inventories going up 0.4%.

Looking forward to next week, Monday is a trading holiday. Markets are closed. Tuesday, a quiet day reporting New York manufacturing. Wednesday, we see Industrial Production reported. We also see the Beige Book, which is the report that is released prior to the next FOMC meeting. We’re starting to get some housing data latter in the week. On Thursday we see Mid-Atlantic manufacturing reported. Consumer sentiment mid-month is this Friday. Not a quiet week but also not a loud week for economic news.

Let’s take a look at our watch lists by going to the Trading Tools tab and Watch Lists subtab. We have tickers identified by our Option Trading candidate filter. We have two that are NOT highlighted in yellow. These tickers are already on our watch list. They are simply reaffirming their position there. Actually, as I scroll down, it’s not two, it’s three. But there are many other candidates highlighted in yellow. These need to be evaluated for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

Moving on to our Trading Tools tab and our Daily Picks subtab, here you’re finding our Trading Trainer “Daily Picks Report Generation” tool. We’re going to take a look at our indexes and do a deeper dive by looking at volume and trends.

Volume and Trends

Volume was about the same today as it was yesterday, about the same as the 50-day, slightly higher. About the same as the 200-day, slightly higher. Our oscillator is showing us that we haven’t had consistently strong volume compared to the oscillator average. Our short and long-duration trends are strongly bullish.

Taking a look at our template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present them with the raw data of the index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch lists. Our trend continuations are very much neutral.

Template1

Our short-term trend test and our trend reversal tests are bullish.

Template 2

Our five-day simple moving average count trend has many days, eight days of trading, behind it. What that tells us is that our current range expansion is going for a record in a number of days.

Template 3

Our bar counts are at zero, meaning that we’re still outside of our Bollinger Bands as we continue to march higher. A lot of lagging indicators have not turned yet, but a lot of our leading indicators are telling us that we are extremely overbought. So let’s watch those lagging indicators carefully.

In the meantime, let’s go to our Trading Tools tab and our Charting subtab and let’s start with our Quick Review template. This is a six-month, daily chart with a linear scale and open high-low close bars. To that I’m going to add my 30, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have these simple moving averages added to the Quick Review template in a user-defined template found here in my personal profile. I’m going to apply that user-defined template to the indexes, specifically starting out with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once this chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen.

Because it is the weekend holiday edition, we’ll start with a weekly two-year chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly 20180112

As you can see, we had a beautiful S-bar this week on strong volume. Our highs are higher, our lows are higher, our weekly chart has a bullish polarity and a bullish bias. Let’s switch to a six-month, daily chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average daily 20180112

We had a beautiful S-bar day. Our simple moving averages are pointing up. Our volume today and the past days has been strong. Let’s take a look at our five-minute chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 5-min 20180112

Okay, this is a little bit different. We have some gains and then some sideways movement. But the gains were all in the first hour, maybe hour and a half of the session, and the rest was sideways movement. That’s a very difficult daily S-bar than one where we see trending throughout the day. Back to our daily chart. We will look up our notes. The Dow closed at $25,803.19. Our low was at $25,633.08. We will take a note that says, “Closed above resistance.” We only adjust our support and resistance levels when we have a complete open high-low close bar outside of the zone. In the meantime, we’re going to keep a bullish trading bias on our Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Let’s switch to evaluating the NASDAQ Composite Index. We will start with a weekly, two-year chart.

NASDAQ weekly chart 20180112

This past week was a beautiful S-bar on heavy volume. Let’s move to a six-month, daily chart.

NASDAQ daily chart 20180112

Simple moving averages are pointing up. Today we had a beautiful S-bar as well. Respectable volume. Let’s move to our five-minute charts.

NASDAQ 5-min chart 20180112

The gains for today occurred in, again, the first 90 minutes to two hours, and then the rest of the day was sideways motion. That’s a lot different picture than gains throughout the day. Still, we had an up day. Let’s take a look at our notes. We closed at $7,261.06. Our low was $7,205.18. I feel like we want to use a level of $7,150 for our support. We want to use the next level of resistance, possibly 7,300. This is psychological round number resistance. Our trading bias across the board on the NASDAQ remains bullish. We have range expansion.

Let’s take a look at our S&P 500 Index. We’ll start with our weekly, two-year chart.

S&P500 weekly chart 20180112

Beautiful S-bar. Good volume for the week. Scaling back to a six-month, daily chart.

S&P500 daily chart 20180112

Beautiful S-bar for today, great volume, simple moving averages trending up. Zooming into a five-minute chart, gains in the morning session, even just early morning session.

S&P500 5-min chart 20180112

Late morning, all afternoon, even professional hour just sideways motion, not even choppy. Back to our daily chart. We closed at $2,786.24. Our trading bias remains bullish. We are in range expansion.

The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, starting with a weekly, two-year chart, shows a beautiful S-bar for the week.

New York Stock Exchange weekly chart 20180112

Pulling back to a six-month, daily chart, there was a beautiful S-bar for today.

New York Stock Exchange daily chart 20180112

Our trading biases and simple moving averages are all bullish. There is range expansion.

Our VIX Volatility Index, starting with a weekly, two-year chart with 40-week simple moving average.

VIX weekly chart 20180112

As you can see, price is pulling down our 40-week simple moving average because we’ve been at extremely low VIX readings for, gosh, coming up on nine months. Our readings are still low, although this week we kind of edged up just a little bit. Let’s switch to a six-month, daily chart with 200-day simple moving average; very similar to the 40-week simple moving average, as there are five trading days in every week.

VIX daily chart 20180112

As you can see, we are still remarkably low but not off our lowest lows. We are up 2.83%. We closed at $10.16 a VIX share.

Our overall trading bias remains bullish.

Our broad market personality is a long-term uptrend. We’re in range expansion. However, our leading indicators are overbought.

The market is responding to the following, including, but not limited to, transient external stochastic shocks, the US fiscal policy, the US Federal Reserve monetary policy; the monetary policies of China, Europe, and Japan; the price of oil; US economic news including employee, housing, manufacturing, and retail; and the market news, including mergers, acquisitions, initial public offerings, public companies going private, and earnings.

That’s all I’ve got team. Please take care.

The post Broad Market Analysis – January 12, 2018 appeared first on Trading Trainer.

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