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Let’s go back to December 2018. The market was rapidly falling, the fear was palpable, there was blood in the streets … and then what happened? The Fed capitulated on their rate hike schedule. The market cheered and rallied from a V-shaped bottom back to the previous all-time high. Everyone likes a rally, but let’s ... Read more

The post Wile E. Coyote Market appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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If you took the average human, let’s say 6’ feet, or 72 inches tall, and the top of the head was the high where we began our retracement and the lows (or zero) were his feet, then the .618 retracement would be “about” where you’d find the belly button. Think of it as more of an art than a science, and of course it does differ but I’ve found it to be generally true. More importantly I’ve found it helps me remember a key retracement in the analysis of swings in the market.

The post The Belly Button Level appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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There are as many trading styles, principles, and methods as there are snowflakes in a Denver blizzard. So why am I addressing this particular one? Well, because it’s extremely relevant this week. Unless you have been hiding under a market rock, you are aware that the market has now sold off fairly sharply for 2 ... Read more

The post The Risk of Buying Breakouts appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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Let’s talk stock trends. What are a couple of things we want to see when a stock is trending? Higher highs and higher lows combined with momentum. But how do we know when the momentum in a trend is cooling off and it’s time to GTFO (Get the Funds Out)? That’s where the 10X Bars ... Read more

The post Let’s Talk About Stock Trends appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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Going into the end of last year the market saw a strong reversal back down to long term support levels. S&P went down to monthly support, and for a second looked as if it would continue to tumble. However, going into the last few days of December, the market started to bounce and confirmed support would continue to hold. At the start of 2019 we continued to show strength and have now seen a bounce to bring us close to our all time highs.

The post The Year of Chop appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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I am sure we have all heard the phrase “don’t fight the Fed”, but do we really know what that means?

The post The Fed is in Charge of the Punchbowl appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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2019 began just as everyone predicted, the Fed capitulating on rate hikes for the year and even hinting that a reduction in rates was possible. Of course, we’re only kidding as many traders were caught wrong-footed by the quick change in sentiment.

The post The Bond Market vs. The Fed and China appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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As we change the calendars to 2019, it is important to look forward to the next year to see what opportunities and challenges face the markets. We see 2019 as a year fraught with landmines of volatility; however, volatility is the lifeblood of trading so we want to be prepared for what may come. We ... Read more

The post Threats or Opportunities? What to Look for in 2019 appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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Today, I went into the market with a bearish sentiment. Why? This is the last day of the year, and it’s hard to imagine major buy programs coming in with the market closing negative on the year. I wanted to play that with S&P futures, but my setup never really came through. Generally, when you ... Read more

The post Looking to 2019: Can the S&Ps Reverse This Bearish Trend? appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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Danielle Shay discusses the continued stock market decline on Yahoo Finance, The Final Hour with Seana Smith, after the Plunge Protection Team was called in late Sunday evening. Will the comments by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin be a catalyst to bring the market higher? Danielle doesn’t think so, calling it a weak attempt to assuage investor ... Read more

The post S&Ps Entered Bear Market Territory Today – Where is Santa? appeared first on Simpler Trading.

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