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Discuss all things MMA betting

  • Flair bets between users should be made in the weekly "Friday Flair Betting Thread"
  • No separate betting related posts will be allowed 48 hours before or after this post, and at no time should you submit posts just referencing your individual wagers.
  • Visit r/mmafantasy and r/mmapredictions for more discussion.

Odds and Resources:

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Please bet responsibly. If you feel like you are betting too much you can follow these links for help:

Click here to message the Mods of rMMA | Link to previous General Discussion Threads | Link to Moronic Monday Thread | Link to Technique & Training Tuesday | Link to Thursday Betting Thread | Link to Friday Flair Betting Thread |

Link to rmma's Thick, Solid and Tight Meme Guide Vol. 3 | Link to rmma's Fight Pass viewing recommendations | Link to rmma's 2017 Reddit MMA Awards

Interested in modding? Please fill out the mod application found here. Do not leave a comment about this in the thread. You can send us modmail if you have questions.

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If you haven't seen my posts, I've been the one generating the Whole-History ratings for MMA, you can find the previous posts here; Previous Posts and the current ratings here; MMA Ratings

During the process of this, I've collected data on over 300,000 fights and since I had a few minutes to spare, I thought I'd have a look at the win rates for fighters moving up or down weight classes.

To automate this, I've considered a 'move in weight class' any time someone fights in a different weight class than their two previous fights, for example, Max Holloway fought at 155lbs recently after his last 2 fights were at 145lbs, so that is counted as a weight class change. When he fights at 145lbs again, that will not count because he only fought once at 155lbs, but the fight before that was at 145lbs.

I've excluded draws and no-contests entirely, since they aren't a huge factor and it's tricky to know how to count them anyway.

Here's what I've discovered, I've marked rows in bold where the change has produced >=50% wins;

Moving Up
New Weight Class Wins Losses Win Rate
115lbs 63 73 46.3%
125lbs 303 310 49.4%
135lbs 1199 1049 53.3%
145lbs 2174 1874 53.7%
155lbs 3062 2710 53%
170lbs 3356 2836 54.1%
185lbs 3006 2365 55.9%
205lbs 1972 1562 55.8%
225lbs 522 309 62.8%
265lbs 1258 1191 51.3%
Total 16915 14279 54.2%

Moving Down
New Weight Class Wins Losses Win Rate
105lbs 117 99 54.1%
115lbs 503 386 56.5%
125lbs 1527 1393 52.2%
135lbs 2149 2065 50.9%
145lbs 2603 2597 50%
155lbs 2478 2502 49.7%
170lbs 1818 1871 49.2%
185lbs 1042 1090 48.8%
205lbs 644 661 49.3%
225lbs 184 185 49.8%
Total 13065 12849 50.4%

What it would seem like from initially looking at this;

  • Moving down a weight class is only really beneficial when you're very small, where the difference in size is more obvious.
  • Moving down a weight class isn't likely to be (initially) very beneficial and you're no more likely to win than staying where you are.
  • Moving up a weight class gives you more of an advantage at the heavier weights, where size differences are less noticeable.
  • Moving up a weight class, unless you're very light in weight, is probably going to give you an advantage, either due to hydration level or due to a speed advantage.

Obviously there's a lot more going into each fight than the weight class change, but I thought it was at least an interesting data set to work out!

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Welcome to rMMA's General Discussion Thread!

Discuss your favorite fighters, the upcoming card or something you forgot to bring up in this week's Moronic Monday thread.

Click here to message the Mods of rMMA | Link to previous General Discussion Threads | Link to Moronic Monday Thread | Link to Technique & Training Tuesday | Betting Threads | Link to Friday Flair Betting Thread |

Link to rmma's Thick, Solid and Tight Meme Guide Vol. 3 | Link to rmma's Fight Pass viewing recommendations | Link to rmma's 2018 Reddit MMA Awards

Custom flairs: here are two ways to obtain a custom flair:

  • place and lose a flair bet in the Friday thread
  • draw a MS Paint-style image for the sub

The rules for the drawing are simply that it must be a ridiculous MMA-related scenario. If you would like a custom flair, send a message to us with a link to your drawing and your flair request. We'll probably grant it.

Interested in modding? Please fill out the mod application found here. Do not leave a comment about this in the thread. You can send us modmail if you have questions.

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