I have no idea. I guess not, but could Weber end up being the next coach? Could he do it on the same contract? It feels more and more like it to me, he's signed with the team for a long time, they got him to announce the draft.
It seems that we are not far away from closing the books on who won the Domi-Galchenyuk trade now that Domi had his breakout season and led the scoring in Montreal with his best year to date while Galchenyuk became the bag of pucks traded to PIT on a Phil Kessel cap dump (PIT has 2nd lowest cap space in the league). But was this forseeable? Did ARZ really get fleeced by Bergevin?
A lot of people were stoked about getting Domi. The Bergevin-haters tried to get ahead of the spin and pointed to his empty net goals to denigrate his value. I actually thought Domi was overhyped because of the Toronto connection. Turns out all this was unfair and that the story is more complicated. I should have checked the stats before being so dismissive.
Domi's offensive struggles with ARI were well known, and his breakout 70pt season this year with MTL is also well known (see his scoring numbers here). The two big questions that stand for me: a) How much of Domi's troubles in ARZ were caused by playing on a bad team (bad coaching, bad teammates) and was an improvement foreseeable with MTL (better coaching, better teammates). more offensive style? b) Do Domi's numbers this season represent a breakout year and a new norm, or a career year?
To answer this, we check his relative contribution to team goals by looking at the difference between goals scored by his team when he's on the ice and when he's off the ice per 60 minutes (GF60rel). These are shown for goals for (GF), goals against (GA), and percentage differential (GF60-GA60/GF60*100) to balance offensive and defensive contributions. Shot attempt stats (Corsi, if you prefer jargon) (CF60,CF60%) are posted to verify results for robustness (i.e to see if results hold up across various metrics).
Relative stats (team on-ice minus team off-ice) for players > 500 min/season 5v5; Ranks in brackets for (team, league).
The results clearly show that Domi was held back offensively by playing on a bad team. His GF60rel has actually been consistently around 0.90, tops for his teams (only Shaw did better this year) and among the top tier (around 50th) in the league (this year, he was between Nikita Kucherov and Roman Josi). His teammates just score more goals when he's on the ice than when he isn't. It's clear that he has consistently be doing something right to make his teammates better players.
His strong offensive drive more than compensated for his bad defensive numbers with Arizona (GA60rel, positive is bad because more on-ice goals against) . Make no mistake, these numbers were bad; he was worst on the team and ranked 523/579 in league his last season in Arizona. However he maintained a net positive contribution in goals to his team (GF%60) when on the ice. He was a still net asset because he was pure mint on offense.
His shot attemp totals (CF60) are consistently ranked below his GF60rel (11th, 3rd, 12th vs. 1st, 1st, 2nd). Conventional wisdom would hold that this would predict an eventual decrease in on-ice goal production, but it hasn't happened in 3 years. One explanation is that Domi generates higher quality opportunities when he's on the ice.
His CF%60rel shows a huge drop from 8th on ARZ to 16th in MTL while his actual CF60 shoots up to 63.1 from 58.5. This is a reflection of Montreal as a whole generating a huge number of shot attempts. So while Domi doesn't generate as many shots as his teammates in Montreal, it appears that the quality of his shots are better. Hence moving to a team that puts offense at a premium and generates more shots appears to have opened up more opportunities for Domi. Playing with more offensive linemates and a more offensive style has enabled him to generate more quality scoring opportunities and to score more. Hence his increase in scoring, according to these metrics, should have been predicted. Bergevin did his homework.
The results clearly show that Alex Galchenyuk was a much worse bet than Domi. His 0.69 GF60rel was actually good in 2016-17 (second best on team), but not as good as Domi's. The bottom dropped out of his 5on5 offense in his last year in Montreal, becoming the worst on the team, with the same result in Arizona this year.
Even in a good year offensively 2017-18, Galchenyuk's lousy defense made him a drag on the team, and left him with aGF%60rel=-6.4, 15th on the team in his controbution to team scoring. He was even worse in this regard the last two years as the bottom fell out on his offensive contribution.
It's pretty clear that ARZ did not do their homework on Galchenyuk, and really should have known better. To be fair, perhaps they thought ahead and knew that his attractive "show-me" contract made him easy to move on a cap dump (which turned out to be the case). It was pretty clear to me though that Galchenyuk was a KHL-level player: I was happy to get something for him that was more than a 2nd round draft pick. For Galchenyuk, it's really a last chance at an NHL shot playing with Crosby/Malkin. If he can't score 30 goals now, there's no more excuses, and he is done in the NHL.
I guess Ghostisbehere is staying in Philly? I haven't heard his name mentioned in trade discussions in a couple of months. We are too good to get a high draft pick, but not a contender yet either. I want another big trade/acquisition this summer.
Armchair GM Thread Think you know better than Marc Bergevin? This is your time to shine! Here you can discuss hypothetical trades, free agents, prospects, and the like. Remember to hear people out and be respectful of their opinions.