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CRUDE OIL recovers further higher on correction. Support lies at the 53.00 level where a break will expose the 52.30 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 52.00 level. Further down, support comes in at the 51.50 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 53.50 levels. Further out, resistance comes in at the 54.00 level. A break above here will aim at the 54.50 level and then the 55.00 level followed by the 55.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength. All in all, CRUDE OIL recovers further higher on correction.
The forex market completely ignores economic data, and the movement in the market creates political events, investors follow US conflicts with China, the European Union. I managed to catch some good trades, where I could earn more than 200% a year over two months. A new trend in the market is expected at the meeting of the FOMC on Wednesday, as well as at the G-20 summit in late June. The euro may fall to 1.10 and below, and gold will increase to 1400. You can join my trade here: https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/589700
Speaking of oil, we expected the Norges banks to raise policy rates by 25bp. The Interest rate path from March meeting explicitly commits to a hike. Yet, the policy adjustment is likely to be a ‘dovish hike’, considering the negative macro backdrop. Norway’s growth is hovering around 3% with strong labor market pressuring inflation (in-line with forecasts). With the hike fully priced in the real question is what is next? Global yields have fallen sharply as market pricing in easier policy from the Fed. Oil prices, despite risks to supply, prices have fallen 20% from April’s highs. Above a hike this week, markets are pricing in 6-7 bps of tightening for the rest of 2019. Interesting the Norges Board will only learn of the FOMCs strategy after their own decision. A dovish hike and pilling back calendar-based forward guidance will be a short-term negative for NOK (especially considering how short the markets are already in NOK).
Clearly, we are not in the 1990’s were the smallest disturbance in the middle-east would cause chaos in energy markets. Tension is rising in the Gulf region as attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have put the US and Iran on a collision course. Despite traders being caught short, as they anticipate further weakening of global demand, the upwards bounce was limited. On Friday, the IEA reduced global oil demand growth in 2019 for a second consecutive month highlighting demand issues that have been bulldozing oil prices downwards. Yet the long-term outlook for oil looks stronger especially at $51 brl. The trade is reported to be short the front-end while building longs on the back end of the curve (locking in a cheap price for future delivery) in expectation of steepening. The middle of the forward curve remains ultra weak and complicated (markets understand that the forward curves is not a reliable forecast of futures prices). With the middle-east gulf region on a hair trigge
Trade uncertainties, Trump’s pressure to cut interest rate and weakening economic data: all seems blurred as to how the Fed should react. Market interpretation should play an important role in the future development of the greenback as well. Treasuries continue to gain traction, with yields lowest in over a year across all maturities as expectations of Fed Funds Rate cuts, uncertainties amplify. Although no rate cuts are expected for Wednesday meeting, changes in forward guidance and the Fed’s dot plot are largely anticipated.
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In the precious mine, which is below the moving averages on the hourly chart, resistance levels of 1341 - 1344 - 1349 may be on the daily pivot 1338. 1334 - 1331 - 1327 supports can be followed in the fall.
Gold Prices at Major Resistance Levels / 1349 Major Resistance Level / Daily Change -0.12%
Gold prices have retreated from the 14-month highs as investors turned their attention to Wednesday's Fed meeting.