The EUR/USD pair looks heavy this week, getting closer to the level of 1.2300, on the back of ongoing demand for the US currency. Seems that US bulls are still keeping control over the market, thereby forming widespread trend. However, today all eyes will remain glued to the release of FOMC minutes, which will be especially interesting in view of recent uptick in the US inflation, as investors are awaiting for fresh updates regarding further Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the FOMC protocols, investors will also pay attention to the data from the US housing market, however, the US dollar price dynamics will remain the decisive factor for the pair, since we were able to make sure of this earlier.
(Bear side). For sales positions under the (down H1) rollover, goals may be equal (S1 / S2 / S3 / up H4).
(Side of bulls). For alternative short-term purchases, corrections may be equal (key levels of resistance / down H1), with the condition of breakdown up to (R1 / R2 / up H4 broken), under the condition of reversal formation from (EMA522 / S1 / S2).
EURUSD: With the pair retains weak and vulnerable to the downside on correction. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.2400 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.2450 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.2500 level where a break will expose the 1.2550 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.2300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.2250 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.2200 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.2150. All in all, EURUSD faces further bear threats on correction.
The greenback continues to gain, yet reasons are still vague. Is it shorts unwinding, reaction to renewed bond sell-off's, risk aversion or catchup to wide yields spreads? There is no shortage of optimism around the US economic health (accelerated by massive fiscal spending) but balanced out by bearish commentary over equities and twin deficits. US 10yrs yields are now edging back up after US Presidents day but still below Valentine’s day high. Failure of EURUSD to break new highs at 1.2555 put the pair in corrective mode. Should German ZEW and EU PMI coming in weaker than expected plus ECB sounding less hawkish we should get continuation of pair bearish trend.
Cryptocurrencies got off to rocky start in February amid a broad sell-off that wiped out $550 billion from the crypto market. However, the market got through this bad patch and started to recover as the mood of investors improved progressively. On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin rose around 5% and hit $11,646, the highest level since January 29th. The price is approaching a key resistance area at around $12,000 (previous highs), while the 50-day moving average currently lies at $12,260.
Investors have shown a lot of patience recently as they did not jumped back into Bitcoin after the sharp sell-off. However, they are slowly coming back into crypto and are carefully avoiding to giving way to panic buying.
The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market after it reached new lows last week. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, is growing for the third consecutive day. At the beginning of the European session, the futures on the DXY index traded with an increase near the mark of 89.50.
The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is close to the highs observed last week. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.92% on the eve of the first trading day in the US this week. On Monday, US markets were closed due to the day off (President's Day).
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