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For immediate release Contact 312-388-1782
One month from the November 6th election, Governor Bruce Rauner faces a steep, uphill climb for re-election, according to the latest Illinois Poll. If it wasn’t before, the 2018 Illinois Governor election has turned into a referendum on Rauner’s four years in office. According to the poll, the Governor is beset by not only a large deficit in the head to head contest with his Democratic opponent, but also by low personal favorability ratings, low job approval, a relatively poor showing by the rest of the statewide Republican ticket, still tepid support among self-identified conservative voters (54.2%) and that voters choices are beginning to be set in stone. In addition, Rauner cannot expect to be helped by President Trump, who has exactly the same low favorability rating as Rauner (35.2%).
Democratic challenger JB Pritzker has a lead of nearly 16 points over the incumbent Republican Governor with a month to go before the November 6th election, according to the poll. Pritzker leads Rauner 47-4% to 31.5%. Third-party candidates Conservative Sam McCann and Libertarian Kash Jackson received 7.3% and 6.1% respectively, according to the poll, while 7.6% are undecided.
The support for both McCann and Jackson appears to hurt Rauner’s chances to win more than Pritzker’s, according to the poll. Those who chose the third-party candidates are largely self-identified conservative or Republican voters who traditionally vote for the Republican candidate. Nearly 23% of Republican voters chose McCann (14.6%) or Jackson (8.3%). Only 2.8% of Democratic voters chose one of the third party candidates.
The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters was conducted September 27-October 2nd, 2018. The margin of error is 2.8%. The poll was conducted by live callers and answered on both land lines (637) and cell phones (571).
Since 2001, Victory Research has conducted a semi-monthly statewide poll called The Illinois Poll. Victory Research does not have a client in the Illinois Governor’s race. Victory Research’s website iswww.illinoispoliticsblog.com.
The poll highlights other problems for the Republican Governor. Perhaps the Governor’s biggest path to re-election is that a large majority of voters have already made their minds up in the Governor’s race.
After making a choice among the Governor candidates, voters were asked, “Would you say your mind is made up, or is there still a chance you could change your mind,” fully 82.5% of voters said they have made their mind up on their choice for Governor, with no chance to change their mind. Of the Governor’s supporters, 92.1% have made their mind up, while 94.2% of those who chose Pritzker have made up their mind. There is some room for movement among the third-party candidates, the poll shows. Of those who chose Conservative candidate Sam McCann in the poll, 62.5% have made their mind up while 37.5% say they could change their mind, while only 43.2% of Libertarian candidate Kash Jackson’s voters have definitely made their mind up, while 56.8% could change their mind.
Combined with those who say they are undecided in the race, those who haven’t definitely made up their mind totals 17.5%. With a sixteen point deficit, barring some new bombshell information that jars some of Pritzker’s support loose, Governor Rauner needs to nearly run the table among those voters in order to win the election, according to the poll.
Another hurdle to re-election for Governor Rauner is his low favorable rating and his low “re-elect” number. On both questions, the Govenor’s numbers are under water. Combining voters who have a strongly favorable and a favorable opinion of the Governor, his approval rating stands at 35.2%, while his disapproval rating (unfavorable + strongly unfavorable) stands at 56%.
On the re-elect question, only 35.8% of likely voters say he “deserves another term in office,” according to the poll. 58.3% of likely voters say that Rauner does not deserve another term in office, while 5.9% say they are undecided on the question. Rauner is also hampered by relatively weak showings by the rest of the Republican candidates on the statewide ticket.
Of the other statewide offices, only the Attorney General campaign is competitive, according to the poll. Democrat State Senator Kwame Raoul leads Republican candidate Erika Harold by nearly eleven points (44.2-33.4%). Libertarian candidate Bubba Harsy receives 4.5% while eighteen percent are undecided.
Incumbent Secretary of State Jesse White leads the Democratic ticket with 64.4%, according to the poll. Republican candidate Jason Helland receives 20.1%. Libertarian candidate Steve Dutner receives 1.9% of the vote while 13.6% are undecided.
Incumbent Comptroller Susana Mendoza leads her Republican challenger former State Senator Darlene Senger by a nearly two-to-one margin (51.9%-25.9%). Libertarian candidate Claire Ball receives 7.6% while 14.6% are undecided, according to the poll.
Incumbent Treasurer Michael Frerichs has a nearly fifteen point lead over his Republican challenger Jim Dodge (43.5%-28.6%). Libertarian candidate Michael Leheney received 5.6% of the vote, while 22.4% are undecided, according to the poll.
Polling Results
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August 16, 2018 For more information
For immediate release contact Rod McCulloch 312-388-1782
On Governor’s Day at the Illinois State Fair, Democratic challenger JB Pritzker leads incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner by nearly eleven percent (41.1%-30.2%), according to the latest Illinois Poll. Conservative Party candidate State Senator Sam McCann is at 8.8% and Libertarian Party candidate Kash Jackson received 1.6% in the poll. Almost a fifth of voters (18.3%) say they remain undecided.
The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters was conducted August 12-14, 2018. The margin of error is 2.8%. The poll was conducted by live callers and answered on both land lines (614) and cell phones (594).
Since 2001, Victory Research has conducted a semi-monthly statewide poll called The Illinois Poll. Victory Research does not have a client in the Illinois Governor’s race. Victory Research’s website is www.illinoispoliticsblog.com.
Pritzker’s lead is built on a huge advantage in largely Democratic Chicago, where he leads the Governor 67.3%-9.2% and to a lesser extent in suburban Cook County, where Pritzker leads by ten percent (40.8%-30.7%), although Pritzker is not close to 50% in the Cook County suburbs.
Senator McCann’s candidacy clearly hurts Governor Rauner’s re-election chances more than Pritzker’s campaign at this point, according to the poll. McCann, who has been critical of the Governor on some conservative issues, attracts the support of 14.6% of self- identified Republican voters in the poll, and only 1.6% of self-identified Democratic voters. Combined with the 3.5% of self-identified Republican voters who say they are for Libertarian Jackson, and the 6.7% of those voters who say they are undecided, nearly a fourth (24.8%) of all Republican voters are not currently supporting the incumbent Republican Governor.
Geographically, outside of Cook County, McCann’s candidacy hits double digit support in the areas of the state where Governor Rauner performed the best in 2016 when he defeated Governor Pat Quinn.
In Northern Illinois, for example, Rauner defeated Quinn by twenty percentage points in 2016 (57.9%-37.8%). In the poll, Rauner is ahead of Pritzker by less than four percentage points (38.5%-34.6%), with McCann breaking double digits at 10.8%. In Central Illinois in 2016, Rauner crushed Quinn by almost thirty percentage points (61.8%-32.6%). Now, Rauner and Pritzker are locked in a dead heat in the region (33.3%-32.4%), with McCann at 15%. Finally, in Southern Illinois, the area of Rauner’s greatest margin in 2016 (62.2%- 32.2%), the three candidates are locked in a virtual tie, (Pritzker 27.3%, Rauner 27.3%, McCann 23.4%), according to the poll.
In a separate question, respondents were asked if Governor Rauner deserves to be re- elected to a second term in office. Less than a third (31.0%) of voters said Rauner does deserve to be re-elected while 57.2% said he does not, according to the poll. 11.8% are undecided.
On this question too, Rauner’s campaign is vulnerable to the conservative third party challengers. The first term Governor, who faced a contentious conservative challenger in the primary in State Representative Jeanne Ives, has not completely won over conservative voters back to his side. Among self-identified conservative voters, barely half (52.4%) say he deserves to be re-elected.
Polling Results
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For immediate release
For more information 312-388-1782
In the first poll released after new petition filings, Democrat JB Pritzker leads incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner by 15 % in a four way race including Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann and Libertarian Kash Jackson.
The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters was conducted June 26-28, 2018. The margin of error is 2.8%. The poll was conducted by live callers and answered on both land lines (631) and cell phones (577).
Since 2001, Victory Research has conducted a semi-monthly statewide poll called The Illinois Poll. Victory Research does not have a client in the Illinois Governor’s race. Victory Research’s website is www.illinoispoliticsblog.com.
Rauner, already the underdog in every published poll since the primary, is hurt more by the presence of the two new candidates than is Pritzker, according to the poll. McCann and Jackson combined receive more than 17% from self-identified Republicans and only 1.2% from self-identified Democrats, according to the poll. In addition, the two new candidates take significant support from Rauner in Central and Southern Illinois, according to the poll.
In the four way race, Pritzker is ahead or tied in every geographic region of the state except the collar counties, where Rauner holds a slight lead (41.9%-38.3%), as well as in Southern Illinois (32.8%-32.0%). McCann’s support hits double digits in Central Illinois, where he is from (11.6%), and in southern Illinois (10.2%).
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May 31, 2018 For more information
For immediate release contact 312-388-1782
https://www.facebook.com/VictoryResearch/
www.illinoispoliticsblog.com
@ilpolster
On the day the Illinois General Assembly passed a state budget, incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner trails Democratic challenger JB Pritzker by fifteen points (47.3%-32.2%) according to the May edition of The Illinois Poll. The poll shows that a lingering division in the state’s Republican Party still hampers the Governor’s re-election bid. Last month’s Illinois Poll showed Pritzker with an 18% lead over Rauner.
The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters was conducted May 22-24, 2018. The margin of error is 2.8%. The poll was conducted by live callers and answered on both land lines (644) and cell phones (564).
Since 2001, Victory Research has conducted a semi-monthly statewide poll called The Illinois Poll. Victory Research does not have a client in the Illinois Governor’s race. Victory Research’s website is www.illinoispoliticsblog.com.
According to the poll, Governor Rauner has less overall support among Republicans than Pritzker has from Democrats. Of respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, Rauner beats Pritzker 67.2%-12.9%, but among self-identified Democrats, Pritzker leads 75.2-7.8%.
Geographically, according to the poll, Pritzker has a wide lead in reliably Democratic Chicago (75.6%-10.6%) and Suburban Cook County (55.7%-25.0%). Rauner has a narrow lead in the Collar Counties (40.6%-39.9%), Northern Illinois (42.3%-38.5%) and Central Illinois (35.7%-35.3%). Rauner has opened a substantial lead in Southern Illinois (46.1%-29.7%), according to the poll.
Pritzker leads among both male (44.8%-32.6%) and female (49.5%-31.9%) voters, according to the poll. Pritzker also leads among white voters (42.1%-37.1%), African-American voters (73.6%-8.8%), and Latino voters (48.2%-27.7%).
A separate question was asked about whether respondents believe that Governor Rauner “deserves to be re-elected to a second term in office.” 34.1% of respondents said yes, while 53.1% of respondents said no. Those who said Rauner deserves re-election saw a slight uptick from the April Illinois Poll when 32.7% said he did.
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VICTORY RESEARCH
312-388-1782
Poll of 2018 likely Illinois general election voters conducted May 22-24, 2018, Margin Of Error 2.82%
If the election for Governor and Lt Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were?
Governor Rauner Pritzker Dk/Und
Total 32.2% 47.3% 20.5%
Male 32.6% 44.8% 22.7%
Female 31.9% 49.5% 18.7%
Chicago 10.6% 75.6% 13.8%
Cook County 25.0% 55.7% 19.3%
Collars 40.6% 39.9% 19.5%
Northern 42.3% 38.5% 19.2%
Central 35.7% 35.3% 29.0%
Southern 46.1% 29.7% 24.2%
White 37.1% 42.1% 20.8%
African-American 8.8% 73.6% 17.6%
Latino 27.7% 48.2% 24.1%
Other 41.4% 39.7% 19.0%
Democrats 7.8% 75.2% 17.0%
Republicans 67.2% 12.9% 19.9%
Independent 37.8% 36.1% 26.1%
Liberal 18.2% 69.3% 12.5%
Moderate 23.3% 54.0% 22.6%
Conservative 55.7% 18.1% 26.2%
18-30 26.0% 46.6% 27.4%
31-45 34.7% 49.1% 16.2%
46-60 30.7% 47.9% 21.5%
Over 60 35.1% 45.1% 19.7%
Contact Victory Research
www.illinoispoliticsblog.com https://www.facebook.com/VictoryResearch/ @ilpollster
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