Estimating intergenerational mobility in developing countries is difficult because matched parent-child income records are rarely available and education is measured very coarsely. In particular, there are no established methods for comparing educational mobility for subsamples of the population when the education distribution is changing over time.
In his paper, Sam Asher resolves these problems using new methods in partial identification and new administrative data, and studies intergenerational mobility across groups and across space in India. He finds that the intergenerational mobility for the population as a whole has remained constant since liberalization, but cross-group changes have been substantial. Rising mobility among historically marginalized "Scheduled Castes" is almost exactly offset by declining intergenerational mobility among Muslims, a comparably sized group that has few constitutional protections. These findings contest the conventional wisdom that marginalized groups in India have been catching up on average. The paper also explores heterogeneity across space, generating the first high-resolution geographic measures of intergenerational mobility across India, with results across 5600 rural subdistricts and 2300 cities and towns.
Todd Moss, CGD senior fellow and executive director of the recently-launched Energy for Growth Hub, on why the Hub was created, how big the energy gap is, and why the tradeoff between residential and industrial energy isn’t really a tradeoff at all.
Jonathan Tepper, Co-author, The Myth of Capitalism
Sarah Miller, Deputy Director, Open Markets Institute
Charles Kenny, Director of Technology and Development, Center for Global Development
Evidence from US-based firms like Google, Facebook, and Amazon shows that market concentration and the failure of competition policy has had grim effects on productivity and inequality. Indeed, across a handful of industries, only a couple of massive firms control the majority of decisions Americans make as consumers. But what effects does market consolidation have on the rest of the world?
In this special CGD Partners Council event, Jonathan Tepper and Denise Hearn, authors of the forthcoming book, The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition, and Deputy Director of Open Markets Institute Sarah Miller will discuss the global implications of market concentration and the failure of competition policy. The discussion will be moderated by Charles Kenny, Director of CGD’s Technology and Development Program.
A quarter-century after the empirical growth literature set out to explain why poor countries aren’t catching up with rich ones, cross-country regressions have mercifully gone out of fashion. But in the interim, the core facts have changed.
Education policymakers care about more than just test scores. They probably care a lot about making policies that will help them get re-elected. They might care about particular people or places that have been historically disadvantaged. And perhaps they care about building a more integrated society: breaking down social barriers by putting children from different socioeconomic backgrounds in the same classrooms and positively influencing interracial or interclass attitudes and social behaviour.
Prospects for Economic Growth and Global Development in 2018 - YouTube
Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group, World Bank
Eswar Prasad, Tolani Professor of Trade Policy, Cornell University
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development
Masood Ahmed, President, Center for Global Development (moderator)
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2018 recognizes that the global economy is enjoying a long-awaited broad-based cyclical recovery. In this favorable environment, the Bank expects growth in emerging and developing countries to continue during the next couple of years. But this is no time for complacency. Forces depressing potential output growth will continue unless countered by structural policies. While most commentators focus on the recent cyclical upturn, the new World Bank report presents a sober analysis of long-term growth prospects.
Director of the World Bank's Development Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose will give a brief presentation of the report and will then participate in the panel discussion, moderated by CGD president, Masood Ahmed.