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Most Respected Honourable Prime Minister,

We Indians are congratulating ourselves for our electoral victory in Lok Sabha elections. Today we are besides ourselves with pure joy and happiness that we are witness to this historic victory as stake holders. For millions of us, this auspicious day will stay in our memory as a daydream till our last breath. And you are the architect-in-chief for making this dream come true. We are utterly grateful to you for allowing us the pleasure of witnessing this day.

I know I will be branded as Modi Bhakt by our left leaning liberal friends and intelligentsia, who are well educated from elite institutions but use their education and intellect to pander to forces inimical to our national interest, culture and pride. As an average Indian I no longer care. On the contrary I will take this epithet of Modi Bhakt as a Badge of Honour because then I will see myself as an ardent follower of the greatest nationalist, unifier, visionary, nation-builder and statesman of independent India. I know millions of Indians will echo these very sentiments.

However, the purpose of this open letter is not what has been summarized thus far. Intention is to bring to attention major national issues which an average Indian would like you to fast track and bring to fruition in next five years of your tenure as PM. These issues assume more relevance if India has to become a 5-trillion-dollar economy by 2024. These debatable issues are outlined as under:-

Uprooting Terror Infrastructure from South Asia.

We understand that terror is a very profitable industry for many powerful entities like global corporations, business houses and some nations. Terrorist activities are aimed at breaking up a nation and its resolve of maintaining sovereignty. This is multi-trillion dollar business for global corporations, which inter alia includes profiting from nations' war efforts through Arms' Sales, nations' massive reconstruction efforts after devastation from war, and claiming ownership of a weak nations' resources. Hence we find various entities with seemingly divergent ideologies gang up to work towards the common purpose of terror. Most common example is that of communists (believing in no religion) giving support to Jihadis (extreme religious fundamentalists). Its money that makes the mare go!

In order to become a 5 trillion dollar economy from 2.7 trillion dollar present economy, we will need enormous foreign investment in India. For that we need to quickly dismantle the terror infrastructure and ecosystem in South Asia so that investors feel safe to invest heavily here. The following should be the focal points of  our action:-
  1. Destroy Ecosystem of Mughalistan. Concept of Mughalistan has been formalized by Pakistan through Mughalistan Research Institute in Bangladesh funded jointly by ISI and DGFI (Director General Forces Intelligence, Bangladesh). Map released show that Pakistan and Bangladesh are planned to be connected through J&K, Mewat, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. All Jihadi organisations, including Al Qaeda, LeT, JeM etc have given support for the creation of Mughalistan. If we have to prevent second partition of India, we need to act fast to destroy terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Eastern beach-head Bangladesh. We need to start cleansing process from West Bengal which is fast becoming  part of the Eastern beach-head. Today this is far bigger danger and challenge than Naxal Movement.
  2. Identify and Neutralize Pak Deep State. Terror activities in South Asia are planned, funded and propagated by Pakistan deep state.We need to identify and target our efforts to decimate this machinery in totality. Global and regional cooperation in this endeavour should also be sought.
  3. Neutralize Naxal Movement. Remaining districts under naxal influence should be freed and brought fully under Indian administrative control. For that the overground naxals who give ideological and administrative support, fund and arm the underground combat naxals have to be rounded up without any compunction. They are the actual perpetrators of terrorism and their extinction will automatically finish off the naxal movement without a bullet
Championing Cause to Free Baluchistan

Active international diplomacy should be undertaken to help Baluch attain independence.. World bodies like UN have to realize that there has been forced occupation of a free country called Baluchistan by Pak Army. Before the partition of Undivided India, Baluchistan was an independent country. That means Baluchistan was not part of Undivided India. After partition of Undivided India, Pakistan came into existence. Then how can Baluchistan be part of Pakistan!! 

Forced occupation of independent Baluchistan by Pak forces has escaped the attention of world opinion, media and bodies for past 70 years. This needs to be urgently corrected and it is our moral obligation to bring this issue to international focus with all diplomatic might at our command. 

In this venture we can get the support of US and China. US should be happy with a free Baluchistan giving terror free access to Afghanistan. China should be convinced that their Gwadar Port development will be best served in an independent Baluchistan, free from double-crossing, blackmailing and terror tactics of Pakistan.


Internationalize Kashmir Issue 

Kashmir became integral part of India from the moment Instrument of Accession was signed by Maharaja of Kashmir. This irreversible process was followed as Rule of Partition by other princely states who became part of India. We should ask for vacation of our occupied territory with UN intervention.


Abolish Article 370 and 35A  

Article 370 & 35A is discriminatory to the population of J&K. They have right to equal opportunity as rest of India. It is dishonesty to say that J&K is an integral part of India if we are unable to provide full benefits of growing India to Kashmiris due to restrictions imposed by these dubious Articles.


Proactive Steps to Make India a Manufacturing Hub

US-China trade war has thrown up a favourable situation for India to position itself as a prospective Manufacturing Hub in this region. 40 US companies have already exhibited their willingness to relocate to India. Sincere efforts should be made to attract more of these US companies to India by rolling out the proverbial red carpet. This will help generate employment and promote exports, thereby greatly boosting the economy


Debar Communism from Electoral Process

Communists believe that "Political power grows from the barrel of a Gun" Political parties which believe in this terrorizing philosophy should not be constitutionally allowed space in a democratic electoral process. In a democracy, liberal and accommodating thought process does not mean that an ideology which abhors democracy should be allowed to participate in electoral process. It is akin to giving political space to sworn naxals and jihadis.

When we allow communists to take part in electoral process, we are basically allowing them opportunity to seize power democratically in some weak moment of our nation. Once in power, will the communists allow democratic institutions to function or turn the country into a communist regime? Aren't we being selfish when we are leaving scope for our future generations to be doomed to live under a communist regime after having ourselves enjoyed all the fruits of democracy?

This needs a national debate. Debarring communists does not mean excluding socialist ideology, which is perfectly compatible in a democratic country. If a communist party believes in democracy then why would it call itself communist. And if its stated ideology is communism then why is it taking part in a democratic process. Answer is to usurp power and turn the country into a communist country. Very frightening thought!


Anti Conversion Act

Mass religious conversions are an internal and external threat to our nation. These conversions have the power of causing internal strife in our society and can also be the cause of demand for cessation from India. Hence it is of utmost importance that we pass an Anti Conversion Bill in Parliament at the earliest. Those opposing this Bill may contend that this Bill is not necessary as no such thing takes place in India. If  that is the case then they shouldn't be worried because the law will never be invoked and hence there will not be any case for contention. It will only act as a precautionary measure.


Correcting our Historical and Cultural Heritage

Strength of a nation lies in its cultural and historical pride. But if these facts are distorted by occupation forces over centuries, then that nation forever remains a weak and slavish nation. Our nation has been through this very situation and has not been unshackled so far. We need to employ the best experts to correct this anomaly without any guilt and shame.


Conclusion. I may have been inaccurate and off the mark in elucidating some points. However those points may be ignored and work in remaining points may please be undertaken with full gusto. If all points mentioned herein are of no consequence, I may please be excused for the same.


Sincerely Yours,
Surajit Debnath

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Keep your ears to the ground. This meteoric rise of US equity markets is unsustainable. It is bound to fall like a ton of bricks. Reason - the rise has been without proper foundation. It is as if some deep pocketed cartel has decided to off load its portfolio in equities and switch to some other market . To start doing that, the prices have been jacked up so that more investors join the band wagon, believing that bull market is intact, alive and kicking. That is far from the truth.

To understand what is happening in market, you will have to refer back to my last Sunday blog post here What's in Store for US Markets in 2019 ?

In my forecast for the month of January 2019, I had envisaged Dow going above 24000 level. But  not in such a fast and furious fashion!! I had also mentioned that Dow will reach 25000 by end January or February. But it seems that this market is in a tearing hurry to reach 25000.

What is causing concern to me is that the present rise is with low trading volume. That is typical of times when big players haul up prices as a part of process of distribution.

In any case we have the complete course chart of Dow for 2019.   Keep referring to it when in doubt. I will keep you posted of the developments. Traders should not think of buying at this point. For selling, let the current up-leg top out first, which I shall indicate in advance.

Remember it is still a bear market and 23000 in Dow can be easily achieved in coming days. So trade with adequate caution against upcoming volatility.
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In the wee hours of last Monday, I had scripted a chart  for Nifty for the complete year 2019  in my last blog post. Idea was to test my understanding of the behavior of Indian equity market going forward. By doing so we will be able to gauge whether this understanding stands the test of time. At any juncture if we find Nifty deviating from the charted course, it will serve as an alarm bell and we can then carry out mid course correction.

So far in this week Nifty has done exactly as scripted. I had opined that Nifty will be range bound between 10500 and 11000. You can revisit my last blog post here Indian Equity Market View For Year 2019


In today's trading sessions, Nifty had reached level of 10930. If my script has to play out, tomorrow Nifty should be travelling southwards. Permabulls may please take note of this and try to be careful in tomorrow's trading session. Do not get carried away by the strong Nifty recovery in today's late afternoon trade from 10845 to 10930 level. Nifty finally closed today at 10905.

Why should Nifty fall tomorrow? It could be for myriads of reasons like Brexit woes, China slowing or market participants getting weighed down by domestic political risks. When the actual destabilizing news finally percolates down to retail investors, action would have already taken place in market. We will only be scrambling for cover. That is where my scripted chart will help you to be cautious. Keep referring to it for future guidance.

As per the strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis, market is totally efficient with market prices quickly adjusting to reflect all types of information, both public and private(inside) information. This basically means that both technical and fundamental analysis of stock market is useless and investing/trading in such market is like throwing darts (random walk theory). With my script on Nifty's future path for the year 2019, I wish to debunk this theory.


Feedspot List For Global Top 100 Stock Blogs

With your blessings, I take the liberty to announce that this blog has been featured in global list of Top 100 Stock Blogs by Feedspot. It has given me immense pleasure and satisfaction and has filled me with dollops of josh to continue writing for you. I am truly humbled with this astounding honor.
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Nifty index is the bellwether for Indian stock markets. Tracking Nifty will essentially give us insight into expected behavior of Indian equities. It is the beginning of year and hence is good time to track Nifty.

Nifty is presently in sideways move, displaying very low volatility. It is expected to remain within the range of 10500 to 11000 for the next couple of months. That is primarily due to the upcoming General Elections and market participants are in no mood to fully commit themselves either way.

What Happens After March

After March things will crystallize to a large extent as to whether present incumbent NDA has the upper hand in the upcoming elections or not. Let us analyze the two outcomes :-

  1.  NDA Has Upper Hand : In that case you will see Nifty drift down to 10300 level. That will be for accumulation purposes for big market players. In other words, if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April, you may safely assume that NDA is going to win the elections, since the big boys of the market think so. Hence you should also accumulate stocks if you find Nifty at 10300 level in April.
  2. NDA Does Not Have Upper Hand :  In such a scenario you will find Nifty racing to 11200 level on low volumes. This means that movers and shakers of markets are expecting NDA to lose the elections and hence are carrying out the process of distribution of stocks. Hence you should also sell major part of your portfolio if you find Nifty at 11200 level at the beginning of April.
What Happens after the Elections

In case NDA wins the elections you can expect Nifty to make new highs beyond its all time high of 11760. But in case NDA loses then it is going to be be one hell of a slide down into a bottomless pit. I would not be surprised if we see 7000 level in Nifty if NDA loses the upcoming General Elections.

Your Views

Do express your views on the subject in the Comments Section. With your views we may be able to understand this beast named equity markets better!!
In case you have any queries, do post them here and I shall be happy to get back to you. Watch this space for I shall be updating you at appropriate moments as Nifty makes its moves going forward.

Happy trading and investing!
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Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed just shy of 24000 . This gave Dow an impressive 2.6% gain from the start of year 2019.

What next is the the million dollar question that begs an answer. I am going to provide some insights which should answer this question.

Forecast for Next Week

Come Monday, DJIA should see a steep drop. It will be due to the patience of the market participants running out over Federal Shutdown. Thereafter there will be volatility for the week with DJIA visiting levels above 24000 and below 23000.

Forecast for Month of January

Month of January will present a good opportunity for traders to profit from going long from sub-23000 level. From this level there is excellent chance of profiting till the level of 25000. This may not be achieved fully in January, but certainly by February we can see 25000 in Dow.

Forecast For First Half 2019

The first half of 2019 will be spent in volatility with Dow between levels of 23000 and 25000. I would expect the bias in this yo-yo journey to be southwards, but this can said with certainty as the action unfolds. I am basically saying that Dow will be moving sideways for the first half of 2019 between the levels of 23000 and 25000. However, jubilant reactions to some unexpected good news may allow Dow to reach levels of 26000.

Forecast For Second Half 2019

Second half of 2019 will see either continuation of sideways movement with southwards bias or an effort to reclaim level of 27000. High probability is the former case of slow Southward Drift so as to be positioned for a good sell off by 2020 -2021.

Here the reason lies in the inversion of US Treasuries' Yield Curve of 2 year and 5 year maturities. Now market participants will be keenly watching the yield curve of 2 yr and 10 yr maturities which is presently flat with narrow yield difference of 17 basis points. This hints that yield curve of these papers has high probability to invert anytime in future.


Early Signals if Dow Movements were to Differ From Above Forecasts

Let us now list the various early signs that will tell us that Dow will behave differently from what I am predicting :--

  1. If Dow fails to reach 25000 level and violates 22000 level on closing basis, then we will see much lower levels in 2019.
  2. Alternatively, if Dow crosses above 27000 level on closing basis, then new highs will be made.
  3. If sideways movement takes place between levels of 22000 and 24000, then we will find Dow at lower levels than 22000 in 2019.
Seeking Views

I have charted the entire Dow movement for 2019. Anyone wishing to seek the detailed reasons for each of these forecasts is most welcome to do so in Comments Section and I shall be delighted to provide the reasons.

I shall also be updating you on weekly movements as and when appropriate. Your views will be highly appreciated by me and other readers. Your views may provide some new insights from which all of us may benefit.

Keep trading in 2019 with profit!

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First we witnessed widespread and sometimes violent protests saying  "Trump is not my President". Then there were protests to allow "Illegal Immigration" to carry on unchecked in US. Close on its heel came protests against "Travel Ban" from seven countries to US.

Then Michael Flynn had to resign from post of National Security Adviser due to leak that he had spoken to a Russian diplomat, Sergey Kislyak.

Now pressure is being applied for resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions for having spoken to the same Russian diplomat.



Phew! that's quite some action for Trump-bashers to orchestrate in such a short span of time. But you already have inside information on Illegal Immigration and Travel Ban through my post
Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

As for conversing with Russians, you have the low down in my last post

Now let us understand the logic behind screams of "Trump is not my President" in US and other world capitals. And that is exactly what we are going to do today. 

To begin with, let us ask some straight questions to these protesters. And if they cannot answer these questions honestly, then they should eschew their unreasonable demand for Trump to step down. Here we go :-
  1. If a democratically elected leader is not your President, then who do you think should be your President - Army Chief, CIA Chief , Fed Chief or some Chieftain of your tribe? What twisted undemocratic logic, coming from those who plan to save US !! Will someone please tell them that US is the world's oldest democracy, and such wishes have no place in a democratic setup.
  2. Why were the protests happening even while Trump was taking oath of office? At that point in time, Trump had not signed any executive order or trampled any democratic value or violated any constitutional law. Then why, why, why? That reeks of well orchestrated plan set in motion by some shadow power. We may dwell on that at some later date.
  3. Do the protesters want Hillary Clinton, who lost the election to Trump, to be officially declared the President? In that case they have to first make amendment to Constitution to read thus " US Government will henceforth be of the protesters, by the protesters, for the protesters. Silent majority will have to remain passive spectators"
Think it over. This thinking exercise is meant both for the protesters and silent majority. After all it is your country and you have to decide whether you want to continue breathing in  a democratic setup or in a messy anarchic cauldron that the protesters are seeking.

Protest as much as you like, democracy allows for that. But at least protest with some democratic rationale. You cannot protest for removal of a democratically elected leader, just because silent majority endorses him and you do not. 

Time to wake up and spread the word!
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Trump policies and beliefs are being criticized and condemned through the length and breadth of US and the world. Protests continue till date and seems to be increasing by the day. Before you get swayed by the protests, ask yourself the following questions:
  1. Why should anyone object to plans to stop illegal immigration from southern borders of US?
  2. Why create furore over travel ban on seven countries, viz Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen & Somalia?

Illegal Immigration 
Anything illegal should be immediately stopped. That is the Rule of Law- bedrock of any democracy. If President Trump is trying to stop illegal immigration, why should there be such massive resistance from US citizens? Are you in favor of illegal activities?Here President Trump is brave enough to risk his political career in order to uphold democratic values in the oldest democracy of the world.  You are invited to give your opinion on following views :-
  1. There will always be vested interest groups to protest against Trump's plans to stop illegal immigration from Mexico. Please remember that Illegal Immigration is big business involving numerous agencies and mega bucks.
  2. Illegal migrants fall easy prey to criminals. When they cannot find legal work, criminal organizations like drug mafia step in and provide work to these illegal migrants. Why should you allow conditions wherein criminal activities get boost in US?
  3. Do not get swayed by what Press says. Get to the bottom of any policy. Is it advantageous to your safety and security or not? President Trump has taken a historic and bold decision to stop illegal immigration into US, unmindful of his own popularity and world opinion. Very few politicians on planet earth can exhibit such courage!
As for Press and world opinion, please discount them since they form part of interest group. If illegal immigration is such a virtue then seek answer to following :-
  • Why did Italy sign numerous accords with Gaddafi's Libya to stop illegal migrants to reach Italy's shores? Even after realizing that Gaddafi's regime was committing horrendous human rights violations to the returned migrants, Italy still carried on returning illegal migrants to Libya and kept filling the coffers of Gaddafi with compensation. Where was free Press and world opinion then?
  • Why couldn't Australia accept illegal migrants into their society? These migrants were just a handful, and yet Australian PM went ahead and convinced Obama to accept them into US society. In Australia these illegal migrants were isolated and kept in inhuman conditions in offshore islands. No free Press or world capital erupted in indignant protests.
  • Why did UK embrace Brexit, which was primarily against open door immigration policy of EU? Can they now turn around and organize massive protests on the streets of London on issue of illegal migration from Mexico.
  • Why did EU enter into deal with Turkey to absorb illegal migrants in lieu of money? Where is free press and world opinion on such double standards?
Do understand that every nation has to look after its own safety and security. President Trump is doing just that for US and has the courage to stick his neck out against  overwhelming world opinion and hostile press.

As for negative Press, please realize that mainstream Media is owned and controlled by big corporations and conglomerates. They have myriad economic and vested interests globally. You need to take their opinion with a pinch of salt and decide on issues based on national interest.


Travel Ban
President Trump has issued an executive order to temporarily ban travel from seven countries, subject to review after 90 days. Iran,Iraq, Sudan,Somalia,Syria, Libya & Yemen figure in this list of temporary travel ban. Looking at this list, can you put hand on your heart and say that this executive order is against national interest? You are invited to express your opinion to following views :-
  1. Is US dumping ground for world migrants? If world opinion is so sharp on travel ban by President Trump, why hasn't any country come forward to accept these migrants? On the contrary EU agrees to pay 6bn Euros to Turkey to stop migrants from Arab countries entering EU.
  2. Why migrants from these seven countries are insisting on crossing the Atlantic and landing on US soil? Closer home, they can seek refuge in affluent nations like Qatar(highest per capita income in world), Brunei(5th highest per capita income), Kuwait(6th highest per capita income), UAE(9th highest per capita income), Saudi Arabia(10th highest per capita income) and other oil rich gulf countries like Bahrain etc. US is just 14th on this list of per capita income of countries and yet there is such a do or die situation being painted for their temporary ban to US. 
US and other western democratic societies have evolved painstakingly over the decades with certain value system which is inherent and intrinsic to their behavioral pattern. These societal mores and customs have now become ingrained in their outlook to life and way of living, conforming to democratic values.

President Trump is simply trying to preserve these Western democratic societal values by imposing this travel ban. Consider the following thoughts, which are factual and are in no way a judgement on any societal values being right or wrong :-
  • Migrants from these seven countries have a different value system ingrained in them over centuries. Democracy is not part of their way of life. Recently some had violently brought about regime change in the name of democracy but still failed to install democratic governments. Do you want these values to get imported to US society?
  • Democracy does not mean only democratic rights without responsibilities. First responsibility in democracy is maintaining sovereignty and integrity of your nation. Nation state does not mean that there will be only one sect, or religion or ethnic group. People from these seven countries have been brought up to believe to fight for rights of only one community, with scant respect for anyone else. Their generations have struggled over years to bring down regimes primarily on sectarian lines. Do you want to be swamped by such value system in US society?
  • Religion is basically a matter of faith between an individual and God. Religious places are meant to cater for facilitating this union between man and God. But religious places in Islam are fully integrated with politics of that country and remain in forefront of political discourse on daily basis. Are you ready to accept religion to interfere in US politics in times to come?
President Trump is taking all steps to save democracy in the last and oldest bastion of true democracy. European nations will wake up to do the same at some later date.

You may have different views on all that has been said above. Do give your valued comments with facts and reasoning. There maybe many aspects that I have overlooked. Do shed light on missed aspects and I will feature them in my next blogpost with your credits.
Do seek comments from your friends and family also, and let me know differing views or more details on the subject for better understanding of a complex issue.
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What is this hullabaloo about US official talking to Russian counterpart? What on earth is wrong in engaging with Russia? Is Russia an enemy state which is trying to wage war with US? Has  Russia made any attempt to invade US through conventional or proxy war? If not, then how is Russia perceived to be an enemy state for US wherein Russians are considered anathemas?

Let us analyze in detail the questions that have arisen here. But before that let's draw your attention to my last blog-post which analyzed the controversial decision of President Trump on Illegal Immigration and Travel Ban . You may like to dig out facts here in Trump's Era - Acts to Save Democracy For Future Generations

Russian Untouchability  

President Trump has rightfully declared that he wants to establish cordial relations with Russia. It takes courage as a US politician to go against long held popular bias and negative sentiments about Russia. Surely such intentions cannot be construed as a populist move!

It is high time to bust this myth about Russia being an enemy state to US. Consider the following myth busting facts and then form your own opinion :-
  1. Russia is not USSR and we are not in Cold War Era. Today Russia is as much concerned about maintaining peace and harmony in the world as any other right minded democratic country. It has shown remarkable commitment to fight terror with commendable success.
  2. On the contrary, NATO is Cold War Era outfit which needs urgent overhaul to meet the challenges of present day geo-political realities. It should throw out member countries with proven record of links with terrorist organizations. Time and again Russia has given enough proof to world, for NATO to act against its terror-linked member countries. But nobody cares! Now tell me, who is acting against world peace - Russia or Arms Lobby controlled NATO ?
  3. Russia is just another democratic country, maybe with an extra dose of national pride and identity. But what is wrong with that? Open ended left liberal Democracy needs to evolve with time into something more meaningful that caters for national interest also. That is the only way forward for Democracy to survive. If not, we will soon find present democratic countries hurtling towards becoming chaotic regimes like those in Middle East and most of Africa.
Russia Vs Saudi Arabia

What is so democratic about Saudi Arabia that US loves? In the same vein, what is so undemocratic about Russia that US avoids like plague? Glance through the following revelations and decide for yourself :-
  1. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia are separated from US by Atlantic Ocean and hence pose no geographical boundary threat. However, by propagating and funding Wahabi/Salafi ideology, Saudi Arabia has helped create many terrorist organizations/regimes. Wahabi/Salafi ideology is the most radical form of Islam known to mankind. By that yardstick Saudi Arabia should be anathema to US, but is its closest ally in Middle East. Russia has no such radical proclivity and yet is perceived as enemy state. Don't you find that hypocritical?
  2. Russian and US scientists cooperate in many technological fields to make life on earth better for mankind. On the other hand, Saudi interaction with US has always been to find ways to expand its regional power through blackmail or machinations of Machiavellian dimensions.
  3. Russia helps regimes in their fight against ISIS, as does US. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia provides clandestine financial, material and moral support to ISIS while condemning them with forked tongue.

Do you still want to fault President Trump for trying to initiate better relations with Russia? President Trump is trying to align democratic forces, without any bias. He does not carry any baggage of past hostilities and is genuinely trying to make America Great again. But that upsets very powerful vested interest groups who had earlier managed to corrupt previous US administrations, and we all know that. Ever wondered how ISIS and Clinton Foundation are both funded by Saudi regime? More on that some other time.

If you think differently from what has been said in preceding paragraphs, do pen down your thoughts in 'Comments' section and we shall discuss your point of view in the next blog-post. But if you agree, then do lend your support wholeheartedly to President Trump's efforts to make US safe, secure and Great again. That will help European nations to wake up and smell the coffee, thereby helping democracy survive. We owe at least that to our future generations!.
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It was tantalizing moment when Dow Jones touched historic milestone of 20000 on Friday 06 Jan 2017. It was  a moment to celebrate, specially for me. Way back in Oct 2014 I had predicted this milestone in Dow while commenting  in a MarketWatch column. Dow was then at 16400 level.

My comment had elicited a response from a reader and I decided to start this blog to track Dow's journey to projected 20000. To get the drift, check out my first blog post Dance of Dow. 

You can also access the above referred MarketWatch column here. My comments can be viewed in the Comments section

Out of my four predictions on movement of Dow, three have so far come true. My fourth and last prediction is the most frightening. It is Dow's fall to 10000 from level of 20000.

What possibly can be reason for such a cataclysmic fall to 10000? You may find an answer to this in my earlier blog post
Bears Sharpening Daggers - US Markets in Danger of Bear GripCrude and  Brexit have already done their bit in shaking the markets. China still remains the elephant in the room.
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As of this moment Dow is trading  at 17716, down114 points. Traders be ready to jump into trade as discussed below.

What we are going to discuss today is for traders' eyes only. Investors please do not try this risky strategy that I am going to discuss today. One has to be nimble footed and there is no room for fat fingers.

I will be giving Dow levels to trade. Scrips which are co-related with Dow movement can also be traded, keeping given Dow levels in view. I hope I am clear. If yes, let's trade ;-


Condition # 1

  • If Dow falls down to 17400/17450, then buy.
  • Sell your position when Dow bounces back to 17850/17900
  • To square off this trade should not take more than a week.
  • If this trade materializes then you stand to gain 400/500 Dow points in quick time.
Condition # 2
  • If Dow does not breach today's low of 17700, then wait for right conditions for sell to develop.
  • Dow is going to trade sideways, so sell will come if Dow takes bounce from 17700.
  • I will let you know in advance when sell conditions develop.
By now you must be aware that I had predicted these volatile trade conditions on 15 Apr 2016, when I had recommended exiting long positions in Dow. For those who are visiting this page for the first time, you may like to read that post titled Bears Sharpening Daggers -US Markets in Danger of Bear Grip

Further I had mentioned in this post that 18000/18200 is selling zone in Dow and bears would like to ferociously defend this last known territory. In that post, I have also discussed about my apprehension of "Bull Trap", which seems to be turning out correct.

Today I am giving out this trade, mentioned in Condition # 1 above, only for traders. From 15 April 2016 onward we have been unemployed as mentioned in my earlier post Out of Work But Thankfully Out of Danger - US Markets Dive

I am reminded of the cliche "Better safe than sorry". 
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