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Dear Friends, 

Hello from VERY hot Los Vegas. I flew down here for a few days to attend a training event.  For those of you who don’t know me well, I’m a self-proclaimed self-improvement junkie. In both my self-improvement work and my professional training in leadership, marketing, and amazing customer service, there is never a shortage of skills to learn and implement. This kind of engagement provides fire in my belly to be the best I can be, in and out of the office. For me, it’s impossible to be good at real estate without striving to be better in all areas of my life.Summer is often a time that things can slow down in terms of selling.  This is a shame because we have plenty of buyers looking. Often, sellers like to hold their properties from the market until after Labor Day. In most cases, this is a mistake. Depending on the property type, summer is a fantastic time to sell:  supply is lower, but demand is still quite high. If you know anyone wanting to sell, we do need inventory so please have them reach out for a no pressure, no strings attached consultation. I would be happy to chat with them about their specific situation.

This newsletter takes a look at the Bay Area as a whole. While I usually focus on SF, it’s fun to see what’s going on around us.  For instance, holy smokes – Oakland has really seen amazing appreciation!  Also please do keep in mind that I have strong relationships with many of the top agents all over the Bay Area, so if you’re looking to buy or sell anywhere, I can introduce you to the best of the best. If I don’t know someone personally, I will find someone for you who does.

On the home front, Praveen and I just celebrated our 13th wedding anniversary.  True to my style, we always have a thorough “review” of our relationship and we both passed!  I feel so lucky that Praveen not only humors me in this endeavor but that he has such a good attitude about it. I think many spouses would be resistant and think it’s silly or annoying, but I find this time away to connect and set intentions for our life to be an integral part of our happiness together and our ability to build our dream life. I pinch myself regularly because I can’t believe that we have it so good. Here is one of my favorite photos from a recent photo shoot we did:

Please enjoy this month’s newsletter that takes a look at Bay Area appreciation trends, and everything from billionaires in mansions to flippers and fixer-uppers.
Wishing you and yours the very best,
Ruth
(415) 846-4571
SFMarketNews.com
From Billionaires in Mansions
to Flippers & Fixer-UppersJune 2018
The county and city appreciation percentages in the chart above were calculated by averaging changes in both median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. We also incorporated S&P Case-Shiller SF metro area calculations based upon its algorithm breaking the market into thirds by price segment. Each city and county includes within itself a wide variety of individual real estate markets of different price segments and varying dynamics, so these percentages are broad generalities. It is impossible to know how they apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.IMPORTANT NOTE: As with stock market (or bitcoin) performance, comparative appreciation rates in housing markets vary wildly depending on the exact start and end dates of the analysis.


Bay Area Median Home Price Trends
since 1990 

Major Factors in Bay Area Appreciation
The appreciation rate and market dynamics of each individual Bay Area market since 2011 has each been affected by a mix of different factors – to greater or lesser degrees:1) Being at the center of the high-tech boom (San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara); 2) proximity to the central counties, but with significantly lower housing costs (Alameda County and especially Oakland are prime examples): 3) being affected to an outsized degree by subprime financing and the 2008-2011 distressed-property price crash (Oakland and many outlying, less expensive areas); 4) relative affordability: in recent years, as home prices soared, the highest pressure of buyer demand moved to less costly markets within and between counties; 5) substantially increased supply due to new construction (SF condo market); 6) increases in the average size of homes sold (+13% in SF); and 6) the general national economic recovery: U.S. home prices have appreciated by about 49% since hitting bottom in 2011.This chart illustrates the dynamics of the enormous appreciation rate in Oakland since 2011, following its drastic crash in prices during the market recession: Chart: Oakland median price changes. And this chart based on Case-Shiller data illuminates the vast differences in the magnitude of bubbles, crashes and recoveries of different home price tiers: Chart: Appreciation Trends by Price Segment.  Generally speaking, the most affluent neighborhoods, with the most expensive homes, have appreciated less on a percentage basis (but more on a dollar-increase basis) than more affordable neighborhoods – especially over the past 2-3 years. This dynamic also occurred in the latter period of the last housing boom. There were sometimes specific local factors, such as the terrible fires in Sonoma, or the opening of the new Apple spaceship headquarters, which played roles in boosting home prices in their locales. 

 

San Francisco County Median Price Trends since 1993
Within SF, appreciation rates have diverged between houses
and condos due to classic supply and demand factors. 
Many more analyses specific to San Francisco County and its neighborhood markets can be found here: San Francisco Market Report
Bay Area Median Condo Prices by County
Year-over-year changesCondos are the distinctly more affordable home purchase option, though that is less true in San Francisco than in other counties. Indeed, overall in the city, condos sell at higher price per square foot values than houses, but, of course, average condo size is much less. 
The high-tech boom has led to a considerable divergence between Bay Area and national home price appreciation rates, as illustrated in this graph based on Case-Shiller data: Long-Term Home Price Appreciation TrendsFixer-Uppers: Median Sales Prices 
Bay Area Luxury Home MarketsThere are very expensive neighborhoods and enclaves throughout the Bay Area, but the fabulous creation new wealth has supercharged Silicon Valley high-end real estate sales above all others.
How much luxury home one gets for the money varies considerably between counties. On a dollar per square foot basis, the highest values are found in San Francisco luxury condos, often high-rise units with utterly spectacular views.
Bay Area Real Estate Market Dynamics
Sales by Price SegmentThese next 2 charts break out house and condo sales in the 9-county Bay Area by price segment. (We roughly estimate another 10 to 12% of such home sales were not reported to MLS, and not included below.)
San Francisco & San Mateo close the gap in dollar
volume sales due to their high home prices.
The above chart tracks dollar volume sales for houses, duets, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit residential buildings. If the sales of larger multi-unit residential buildings and commercial buildings were included, sales volumes would soar for some counties. For example, in San Francisco, 74% of all transfer taxes collected in 2017 related to property sales of $10m+, the vast majority of which were larger apartment buildings and commercial properties.


Home and Lot Sizes 

As the economy recovered from the recession, people began to buy larger houses, which is one factor in increasing median home sales prices. The average size of houses sold in San Francisco increased 13% over the period, but is still far below those in Marin, and in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda in Central Contra..
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Dear Friends, 

Summer is here!  …And I’m going to be another year older this month – a high-five to all my fellow Cancers out there!  We’re anticipating a little slow down in the market over the next couple of months as we usually do for the summer season – fewer listings and fewer buyers.  We’ve already seen some offer dates come and go without offers and a number of expired listings without a sale.  But, there are plenty of homes for my clients to buy!

This newsletter has good insights about a variety of ways to look at the market – appreciation values all over the Bay Area (with Oakland seeing the highest increase), lot sizes in different counties (SF has the lowest), costs of fixer-uppers (which is what $1M gets you in many areas) and lots of other interesting data points.  Enjoy!

Janeen
(415) 713-6590
SFMarketNews.com
From Billionaires in Mansions
to Flippers & Fixer-UppersJune 2018
The county and city appreciation percentages in the chart above were calculated by averaging changes in both median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. We also incorporated S&P Case-Shiller SF metro area calculations based upon its algorithm breaking the market into thirds by price segment. Each city and county includes within itself a wide variety of individual real estate markets of different price segments and varying dynamics, so these percentages are broad generalities. It is impossible to know how they apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.IMPORTANT NOTE: As with stock market (or bitcoin) performance, comparative appreciation rates in housing markets vary wildly depending on the exact start and end dates of the analysis.


Bay Area Median Home Price Trends
since 1990 

Major Factors in Bay Area Appreciation
The appreciation rate and market dynamics of each individual Bay Area market since 2011 has each been affected by a mix of different factors – to greater or lesser degrees:1) Being at the center of the high-tech boom (San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara); 2) proximity to the central counties, but with significantly lower housing costs (Alameda County and especially Oakland are prime examples): 3) being affected to an outsized degree by subprime financing and the 2008-2011 distressed-property price crash (Oakland and many outlying, less expensive areas); 4) relative affordability: in recent years, as home prices soared, the highest pressure of buyer demand moved to less costly markets within and between counties; 5) substantially increased supply due to new construction (SF condo market); 6) increases in the average size of homes sold (+13% in SF); and 6) the general national economic recovery: U.S. home prices have appreciated by about 49% since hitting bottom in 2011.

This chart illustrates the dynamics of the enormous appreciation rate in Oakland since 2011, following its drastic crash in prices during the market recession: Chart: Oakland median price changes. And this chart based on Case-Shiller data illuminates the vast differences in the magnitude of bubbles, crashes and recoveries of different home price tiers: Chart: Appreciation Trends by Price Segment.  Generally speaking, the most affluent neighborhoods, with the most expensive homes, have appreciated less on a percentage basis (but more on a dollar-increase basis) than more affordable neighborhoods – especially over the past 2-3 years. This dynamic also occurred in the latter period of the last housing boom. There were sometimes specific local factors, such as the terrible fires in Sonoma, or the opening of the new Apple spaceship headquarters, which played roles in boosting home prices in their locales.

 

San Francisco County Median Price Trends since 1993
Within SF, appreciation rates have diverged between houses
and condos due to classic supply and demand factors. 
Many more analyses specific to San Francisco County and its neighborhood markets can be found here: San Francisco Market Report
Bay Area Median Condo Prices by County
Year-over-year changesCondos are the distinctly more affordable home purchase option, though that is less true in San Francisco than in other counties. Indeed, overall in the city, condos sell at higher price per square foot values than houses, but, of course, average condo size is much less. 
The high-tech boom has led to a considerable divergence between Bay Area and national home price appreciation rates, as illustrated in this graph based on Case-Shiller data: Long-Term Home Price Appreciation TrendsFixer-Uppers: Median Sales Prices 
Bay Area Luxury Home MarketsThere are very expensive neighborhoods and enclaves throughout the Bay Area, but the fabulous creation new wealth has supercharged Silicon Valley high-end real estate sales above all others.
How much luxury home one gets for the money varies considerably between counties. On a dollar per square foot basis, the highest values are found in San Francisco luxury condos, often high-rise units with utterly spectacular views.
Bay Area Real Estate Market Dynamics
Sales by Price SegmentThese next 2 charts break out house and condo sales in the 9-county Bay Area by price segment. (We roughly estimate another 10 to 12% of such home sales were not reported to MLS, and not included below.)
San Francisco & San Mateo close the gap in dollar
volume sales due to their high home prices.
The above chart tracks dollar volume sales for houses, duets, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit residential buildings. If the sales of larger multi-unit residential buildings and commercial buildings were included, sales volumes would soar for some counties. For example, in San Francisco, 74% of all transfer taxes collected in 2017 related to property sales of $10m+, the vast majority of which were larger apartment buildings and commercial properties.


Home and Lot Sizes 

As the economy recovered from the recession, people began to buy larger houses, which is one factor in increasing median home sales prices. The average size of houses sold in San Francisco increased 13% over the period, but is still far below those in Marin, and in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda in Central Contra Costa County.
Marin & Diablo Valley also have the largest median lot sizes.
Homeownership & Tenant-Occupancy PercentagesOf the 9 Bay Area counties, only San Francisco has a higher percentage of renters than of homeowners (though certain cities of other counties do as well).
On the issue of rent and eviction controls, people have a tendency to vote their own..
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San Francisco Real Estate

No Let-Up in Demand So Far in 2018

March 2018 Update

————————————————————

So far in 2018, the market seems to have brushed aside any concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, and new federal tax law changes. It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand is competing ferociously for a limited supply of listings. This is especially true in the more affordable home segments, and particularly for house listings. The situation is somewhat more complicated in the highest price ranges, especially in the luxury condo segment where supply has been rapidly increasing. Of course, whatever the property type or price segment, it all ultimately depends on the specific property, and its location, appeal, preparation, marketing and pricing.

As an example of what is going on so far in 2018, our dollar volume SF home sales here at Paragon is up 38% for January and February as compared to last year, though admittedly we are outperforming the general market, which is still up by 8% (per Broker Metrics for MLS sales).


San Francisco Median Home Price Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005

San Francisco Price per Sq.Ft. Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005

These first two charts above compare year-over-year median and average home values for the same 3-month period, December through February, since 2005. For the past 3 years, appreciation for houses has dramatically outpaced that for condos. This is mostly a factor of supply as new-construction condos have poured onto the market, while the supply of house listings has continued to dwindle in the face of high demand.

We are not enthusiastic about monthly median price movements since they tend to bounce around without great meaningfulness due to a number of factors, and sales volumes are very low in the first 2 months of the year, but, for what it is worth, the SF median house price soared to a new high in February 2018 to $1,715,000 (100 sales across 70-odd neighborhoods, reported to MLS by 3/7/18 – late reported sales may affect this price). Monthly median condo prices have generally been jogging up and down within a relatively narrow range since 2015. Chart: Chart: SF Monthly House & Condo Median Sales Prices

————————————————————

Appreciation by San Francisco District
by Year since 2004

The next 2 charts glance at house value appreciation in major districts around the city, from most affordable to more expensive to most expensive. As mentioned before, houses in more affordable neighborhoods have seen the most competitive market dynamic, and most consistent appreciation, in recent years.

It can be challenging to measure appreciation in the most expensive price segments, because, firstly, there are not that many sales, and secondly, because of the huge range of sales prices within those segments ($3m to $30m for luxury houses in SF; $2m to $22m for condos and co-ops), but it may well be that their values have mostly plateaued since 2015, or in some instances, ticked down. This can be seen in the second chart below with average dollar per square foot values declining a little in the most expensive house district in the city, Pacific Heights-Marina. But, again, it all depends on the specific property, its location and circumstances.


Median House Sales Prices by District
since 2004

Average Price per Square Foot House Values
since 2004

We have hundreds of other analyses on San Francisco neighborhood house and condo prices and appreciation trends: SF Neighborhood Values & SF Neighborhood Appreciation Trends.

Or simply contact us regarding the neighborhoods you are specifically interested in.

————————————————————

San Francisco Luxury Home Market

Luxury home sales started off very strong in 2018, but the supply and demand dynamics are softer than in the general market. In the ultra-luxury condo market, in those neighborhoods where new, high-price condo construction is concentrated, supply is now outpacing demand. We just did a massive update of our luxury home analysis and it can be found in its entirety here: Paragon Luxury Market Report.

Below are a few samples of charts in the complete report.


Year-over-Year Sales Comparisons
First 6 Weeks of the Year

Active Luxury House Listings by District

SF Luxury House Sales by Era of Construction

Active Luxury Condo & Co-op Listings by District

Supply & Demand: Ultra-Luxury Condos & Co-ops

————————————————————

Long-Term Trends in Inventory

Only about 2% of house owners are putting their homes on the market each year, which is incredibly low by historical measures. About 5% of condo owners sell their homes each year, plus the new-construction condos that come on the market. This dynamic has made houses into the scarce commodity, and has fueled dramatic house price appreciation.

New Listings Coming on Market
Long-Term Trends

Active Listings on Market at End of Month
Long-Term Trends

Short-Term Trends: Seasonality

We are just heading now into the biggest sales season of the year, running from March through mid-June. The real estate market in the city is significantly affected by seasonality, and the luxury segment is even more fiercely affected. We shall also see if rising interest rates (if they continue to rise) or the changes in the federal tax law start to have any significant dampening effects on demand.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) br>
General Market

New Listings Coming on Market
Luxury Home Market

————————————————————

Selected Supply & Demand Statistics

The following charts illustrate 3 of the classic indicators of market heat, and all of them speak to the feverish real estate market we have seen so far in 2018. However, the market is clearly hottest in the non-luxury price segment, and cooler in the highest price ranges, which is illustrated in the fourth chart below.

Average Days on Market
Year-over-Year Comparisons

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
by Month

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Year-over-Year Comparisons

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
by Property Type & Price Segment

The market is softer in the highest price ranges
especially for the most expensive condos

————————————————————

Average $/Sq.Ft. Value by House Size

All things being equal, house size and price per square foot go in opposite directions, i.e. a smaller house will sell for a lower sales price but a higher dollar per square foot value. This has to do with land value and the cost of systems, kitchens and baths. This is why, comparing two periods of time, it is possible that median sales prices can go up while dollar per square foot values go down, or there is a significant mismatch in the appreciation rates – the average size of the houses sold significantly changed between the periods, which happens sometimes. The charts below are of 2 districts with both a good number of sales and relatively homogenous values within the district.

In both the cases below, the difference in price per square foot between smaller houses and the largest houses runs about $200, a 15% to 20% difference.

The above effect does not always apply: For example, in Pacific Heights, the biggest houses are also often in the most prestigious locations with the best views, and so command a premium in price per square foot despite their size. And this often does not apply to condo sales, because bigger units are often built higher up in the building, with more expensive finishes, delivering better (or staggering) views, and thus selling for higher $/sq.ft. values.


————————————————————Rising Mortgage Interest Rates

Short-Term Trends

Long-Term Trends

Debt in America

One of the macro-economic factors of concern is that debt levels, of virtually every kind, are hitting new highs in the country (and in the world). This has been heavily subsidized by the historically low interest rates prevailing in recent years, but rates appear to be headed upward, and increasing debt often plays a big role in market cycles.

Debt Taken On to Invest in Financial Markets
(Often a Sign of Investor Over-Exuberance)

Household Non-Housing Debt
Credit Cards, Student Loans, Car Financing

Household Mortgage Debt Service Ratio

The amount of total mortgage debt in the country is now about the same as at its last peak in 2008 (not illustrated on this chart), but because of the plunge in interest rates since then, the ratio of mortgage debt service to disposable income was close to an all-time low in mid-2017. Interest rates have been rising since then, but are still about 30% lower than in 2007. The good news is that so much of mortgage debt in America is now in fixed-rate loans at very low interest rates, which adds much stability to economic conditions, a stability grievously lacking at the time of the 2008 financial markets crash.

Link to additional charts on debt

Additional reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Real Estate Reports Page

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.
Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

————————————————————

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.


© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Ruth Krishnan
SF Realtor #01862279
ruth@ruthkrishnan.com
(415) 846-4571
ruthkrishnan.com
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A Survey of San Francisco Bay Area
Real Estate MarketsFebruary 2018
Dear Friends,

I hope everyone is having fabulous February!  In this month’s newsletter, we have taken a wide look at the Bay Area markets.  One of my favorite charts below shows how many square feet you would get in various parts of the Bay Area if you had 1 million dollars to spend.  Apparently, for a million dollars you could get around 600 SqFt in Palo Alto, 700 SqFt in Pacific Heights, or almost 3,900 SqFt in Alamo!

Spring seems to have arrived early to the SF market and we the Krishnan Team have been very busy prepping many homes about to hit the market. Coming soon, we have a super hip place on Natoma Street in SOMA that can be used as a single family home, a two-unit building, or even a commercial building.  We are fortunate to have listed this home a few years back and feel honored the person who bought it has reached out to us to help sell it once more. See the write up on SF Curbed from the previous time we sold this building.  Stay tuned for many more listings to come, including a few of the sweetest single family homes in Noe Valley, Merced Manor, and Inner Sunset as well as a spacious condo on 3rd Ave in theInner Richmond.

On a personal note, one of my core values is to grow and find ways to constantly push myself. For that reason, I have really enjoyed building a network of stellar agents all around the Bay Area.  I regularly meet with a few groups of the very top-performing Realtors in the Bay Area.  We focus on sharing ideas, on challenges, and on brainstorming solutions to help us be our best selves.  If you are ever looking for an agent outside of San Francisco, let me know. Chances are, I will have a great Agent to introduce you to.

In family news, Roshen lost his two front teeth and has the cutest toothless smile ever!!  After recovering from pneumonia and jetlag, I am struggling to get back to my morning routine.  I know that getting back to it will give me more energy throughout the day and help me feel centered, calm, and energetic. Although I need to try harder to get back to my routine, the extra sleep I have been getting lately has been very much needed and enjoyed.  If you have ideas on how to get motivated or inspired to get your butt out of bed and start your day right, I would love to hear them.  I’m going to start by revisiting the book, Miracle Morning. I will let you know how it goes.

As you know, we are always here for you! Feel free to email or call us if we can help in any way.  Please do send us an introduction to anyone you know who might be thinking of buying or selling. It’s never too early to consult a Realtor for ideas and strategies.

All my best,

Ruth
Krishanan Team

SFMarketNews.comBay Area Home Price Maps Our newly updated median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.
————————————————————
Bay Area Q4 2017 Median House Sales Prices
Bay Area 2017 Median Condo Sales Prices

One cannot draw many conclusions regarding the new year market by looking at January data, whose low volume of sales mostly reflects offers accepted in December, however, so far, it appears that the low-inventory/ strong-buyer-demand dynamic is continuing in 2018. One recurring situation in recent years is that buyers jump back into the market in January in larger numbers than sellers getting their homes listed to sell – setting up a mismatch between supply and demand. Typically, many more listings will start pouring onto the market in February and March, and a much better idea regarding where the market is heading in 2018 will be possible once spring selling season data starts coming in.

Since questions constantly arise as to how one development or another is affecting or may affect Bay Area real estate markets – new tax laws, the high-tech boom, interest rates, financial markets, new home construction, climate change, and so on – our chief market analyst has made an attempt to identify and quantify the factors currently at play: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Real Estate Markets

————————————————————

Year-over-Year Home Price Appreciation Rates
Comparing 2017 Median Sales Prices to 2016 Prices


————————————————————Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
& What You Get for $1 Million in the Bay Area
 

Your great aunt gives you a check for a million dollars to buy a home, so you go down to the real estate store to fill your cart. Below are some examples of how much home you would get for your money at 2017 average dollar per square foot rates: In Palo Alto, you could buy 626 square feet of home, and in Vallejo, 3817 square feet, with many other options in between.
————————————————————Bay Area Luxury Home Markets
Though San Francisco is a major player in luxury home sales, Silicon Valley – Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties together – has over 3.5 times as many homes selling for $2m and above. All 3 counties have similar average dollar per square foot house values in this high-price category. SF dominates the luxury condo market, and these condos, on average, sell at the highest per square foot values in the Bay Area. Marin, Alameda and central Contra Costa Counties have smaller luxury home segments, but you start to get more for your money.
————————————————————
Market Dynamics Overviews
The decline in active listings available to purchase has played a significant role in pressurizing the market in recent years, especially as buyer demand has increased over the same period during which supply has dropped.
Since median sales prices are so often quoted and compared, it adds context to look at the average size of houses in the different markets. (Comparing median prices to average sizes is not ideal, but you get the idea.)

New Housing Construction
This chart below from the November 2017 Housing Inventory Report issued by the SF Planning Department is for 2016, but illustrates how new housing construction in Alameda County has recently accelerated ahead of San Francisco and Santa Clara. Our larger analysis of this report, which focuses mostly on San Francisco, can be found here: SF New Home Construction Report
Days on Market, Overbidding Asking Prices
& Months Supply of Inventory
————————————————————Interest Rate Trends
Interest rate changes will certainly be one of the main factors to keep an eye on in 2018, as they play a huge role in housing affordability.
Bay Area Unemployment Rate Trends
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Yet Another Dramatic Jump in San Francisco
Median House Price to over $1,600,000April 2018 Report
Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns about recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel heated neighborhood markets throughout San Francisco.
Houses have become the scarce commodity in San Francisco: Few new houses are built in the city anymore, and house owners are selling less frequently than ever. In Q1 2018, the SF median house sales price soared almost 24% above the Q1 2017 price of $1,300,000, and over $100,000 above the recent peak in Q4 2017. Neighborhoods with house prices under $1.5 to $2m are, in particular, experiencing frenzied buyer demand. Median condo sales prices also continue to increase on a year-over-year basis, but at slower rates due to the significant quantities of new-construction condos coming on market.
Median Sales Price Changes by Quarter
since 2012 
Median sales prices often fluctuate by quarter or season.
Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

Longer-Term Median Sales Price Changes
since 2005, 12-Month Rolling Figures12-month-rolling median sales price figures will always be behind the curve during periods of rapid appreciation, but are excellent for illustrating long-term trends, as they reduce the effects of large, anomalous or seasonal fluctuations.

Long-Term Home Price Trends
Bay Area vs. National Appreciation since 1987
per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The Case-Shiller Index does not use median sales prices to measure appreciation, but instead employs its own algorithm. This chart compares the national home price appreciation trend with that for high-price-tier houses in the 5-county SF Metro Area. The high price tier applies best to most of the markets in San Francisco, Central-Southern Marin, San Mateo, and Diablo Valley & Lamorinda.

In this chart, home prices in January 2000 are designated at a value of 100, thus the reading of 248 in December 2017 signifies a price that has appreciated 148% in the 18 years since then. Notice how similar the national and Bay Area trend lines are, with appreciable variations occurring after the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble and crash, and during the most recent Bay Area high tech boom.

As always, market dynamics often vary significantly by specific location, property type and price segment, and median prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as fluctuations in luxury home and new construction sales, and in the average size of homes sold). Late reported sales may affect the median sales prices illustrated in the quarterly chart, though typically only to a minor degree.A condensed version of our report on the ups and downs in the market over recent decades: SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

 

Overbidding Asking Prices in San Francisco
Sales Price to List Price % by Property Type, 12-Month Rolling Figures
Overbidding reflects buyer competition for new listings. It is a pure supply and demand issue, and this chart illustrates the respective heat of property-type markets in the city. However it should be noted that some agents have adopted a strategy of underpricing their listings, which will artificially increase overbidding percentages.

San Francisco Median Sales Prices by NeighborhoodReflecting Sales Reported to MLS 10/1/17 – 4/5/18
Neighborhoods with a Minimum of 12 Sales in Period
(except Presidio Heights) 

Below is a glance at recent house and condo median sales prices broken out by neighborhood for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so – basically since autumn sales began to close. There are many SF neighborhoods that did not have at least 12 sales during the period and these were not included, because the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistical analysis. The only exception was Presidio Heights: It holds the title for both highest house and condo median sales prices, so we included it even though it had only 11 sales of each property type.Note: In recent years, the Pacific Heights median house sales price has typically been running close to $6m, far above its price in the table below. But median prices can fluctuate dramatically in the most expensive neighborhoods: This is due to the relatively small number of sales and the enormous range in individual sales prices. Absent some definitive market event, sudden, abnormal spikes up or down in neighborhood values should always be taken with a grain of salt until confirmed over the longer term.There are 10 Realtor districts and 70-odd neighborhoods in the city, and here is a link to a detailed San Francisco Neighborhood Map.


If you would like information on a neighborhood not included here, please let us know.The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends
Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing in droves, that more people are leaving than arriving, that Silicon Valley is over, and this may spell disaster for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad – but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years – which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams – more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth


San Francisco & Bay Area populations continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years. 
The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down. 
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Trends
since 2005

SF New Housing Construction Pipeline
There are approximately 65,000 housing units in the SF Planning Department pipeline, which includes condos, apartments, and affordable and social project housing in various states of plan submittal, review, approval, permit issuance and construction. The construction of new rental units continues to outpace new-condo construction in San Francisco, an interesting shift which just began a couple years ago. More projects continue to enter the pipeline, but some of the really big projects, such as Treasure Island and Candlestick, do not seem to be making much headway toward breaking ground.

Mortgage Interest RatesInterest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.
MEDIAN List Rents by County
Short-Term Trends since 2011

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

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We thought it would be fun to show you a quick “before and after” of a place we recently sold. Rather than selling a property “as is”, we put a ton of work into each listing to make it look its best. Our sellers love the results!  This home sold for over a half a million dollars above list price.  

BEFORE:     and AFTER:    

By taking out the outdated carpet and revealing lively hardwood floors we we able to add some color and life back into the room. We also added a fresh coat of paint to the walls to re-energize the space.

BEFORE:     and AFTER:    

Sometimes it is hard to see the value in a home, but taking the extra time to update the property before bringing it to market we help the buyer to see the true value of each property.

BEFORE:     and AFTER:    

We are so happy for our sellers! If you know anyone who needs our services, please send them our way – we would love to help.

KRISHNAN TEAM
CalBRE#01862279

(415) 735-5867

info@ruthkrishnan.com

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SF Homes | 355 3rd Ave Inner Richmond - YouTube

355 3rd Ave in Inner Richmond

Immaculate, spacious, enchanting home

3 bed, 2 bath condo
1 car parking in garage
Year built: 1900 (per tax)
Sq Ft: 1,422 (per appraisal)
In-unit laundry
2 fireplaces
HOA $489
Wine fridge & built-in glass rack
Granite countertops & stainless steel appliances
Hardwood floors
Expansive shared backyard
Private balcony

Immaculate, spacious, and charming home in the heart of the Inner Richmond!

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath condo boasts a gracious open floor plan, high ceilings, 2 fireplaces, and enchanting original details.

The bright and airy great room showcases a generous living room with an elegant fireplace and enormous bay window,

a dining area, and a fabulous open kitchen.

The gourmet kitchen is a dream come true, with sweeping granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and sparkling white cabinetry.

It’s easy to imagine hosting lavish gatherings in this lovely space.

Next to the great room lies the first bedroom, which boasts a big bay window and ornate crown molding.

Down the hall, the serene second bedroom delights with its very own fireplace adorned with colorful tile and a stained glass panel.

The expansive master bedroom is truly stunning,

with an ensuite bath,

walk-in closet,

and a private balcony

overlooking rows of gardens below.

There is also in-unit laundry,

hall storage,

and a sun-drenched full bath with an oversized soaking tub.

Enjoy access to a huge shared backyard

with a patio surrounded by grass and flowering trees.

LiveInnerRichmond.com

Interactive floor plans & more photos in the website

Top 1% SF Team
lic#01862279

info@ruthkrishnan.com
(415) 735-5867

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SF Homes | 1858 10th Ave Inner Sunset - YouTube

1858 10th Ave Inner Sunset

Immaculate, spacious, enchanting home

2 bed, 1 bath + an office/den
2 car tandem garage
Year built: 1921 (per tax)
Sq Ft: 1,160 (per appraisal)

 Welcoming living room & 1 decorative fireplace

Exquisite built-in buffet

Cheerful kitchen

Hardwood floors

Balcony & veggie/flower garden

Fabulous backyard with a vineyard

Immaculate, spacious, and charming home in the Inner Sunset!

This 2 bedroom, 1 bath single family home boasts hardwood floors, crown molding, built-ins, and plenty of expansion potential.

The bright and welcoming living room showcases a decorative fireplace  and built-in bookshelves.

The house features a spacious formal dining room,

and a fabulous kitchen.

The kitchen is cheerful and well appointed, with plentiful cabinet space and abundant natural light.

It’s easy to imagine hosting lavish gatherings in this lovely space.

The large front bedroom includes two picture windows overlooking the tree-lined street.

The serene second bedroom overlooks the lush green hillsides of Twin Peaks.

A bath completes the main floor.

The and a nice balcony where a cup of coffee can be enjoyed while watching the sunrise.

The backyard is huge and there are native plants that surround a vineyard with rows of Riesling vines.

There is extra storage space and expansion potential.

Enjoy access to the garden

with avocado trees, strawberries, flowers.

LiveInnerSunset.com 

Interactive floor plans & more photos in the website

Top 1% SF Team
lic#01862279

info@ruthkrishnan.com
(415) 735-5867

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SF Homes | 355 3rd Ave Inner Richmond - YouTube

355 3rd Ave in Inner Richmond

Immaculate, spacious, enchanting home

3 bed, 2 bath condo
1 car parking in garage
Year built: 1900 (per tax)
Sq Ft: 1,422 (per appraisal)
In-unit laundry
2 fireplaces
HOA $489
Wine fridge & built-in glass rack
Granite countertops & stainless steel appliances
Hardwood floors
Expansive shared backyard
Private balcony

Immaculate, spacious, and charming home in the heart of the Inner Richmond!

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath condo boasts a gracious open floor plan, high ceilings, 2 fireplaces, and enchanting original details.

The bright and airy great room showcases a generous living room with an elegant fireplace and enormous bay window,

a dining area, and a fabulous open kitchen.

The gourmet kitchen is a dream come true, with sweeping granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and sparkling white cabinetry.

It’s easy to imagine hosting lavish gatherings in this lovely space.

Next to the great room lies the first bedroom, which boasts a big bay window and ornate crown molding.

Down the hall, the serene second bedroom delights with its very own fireplace adorned with colorful tile and a stained glass panel.

The expansive master bedroom is truly stunning,

with an ensuite bath,

walk-in closet,

and a private balcony

overlooking rows of gardens below.

There is also in-unit laundry,

hall storage,

and a sun-drenched full bath with an oversized soaking tub.

Enjoy access to a huge shared backyard

with a patio surrounded by grass and flowering trees.

LiveInnerRichmond.com

Interactive floor plans & more photos in the website

Top 1% SF Team
lic#01862279

info@ruthkrishnan.com
(415) 735-5867

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