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MCX Jul Cotton Closed Lower On Thursday Due To Profit Booking

ICE cotton closed lower on dismal export data. USDA Export Sales report showed just 72,044 RB of 18/19 upland cotton sold in the week of June 20. While the US exports were tallied at 322,603 RB, down 12.28% from the same time last year.

The Cotton Advisory Board, estimated (provisional) cotton production this season (Oct 2018 to Sep 2019) to be 337 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Import of cotton in the 2018-2019 cotton season is expected to be 22 lakh bales, almost seven lakh bales higher compared with the previous season. In the current season, we see higher imports of about 31 lakh bales due to higher domestic prices. As per DGCIS, exports of cotton from India is down by 27% in first 3-months of 2019 compared to last year while imports up by 12%.

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Turmeric Futures Edged Lower To Close At 6,298 Rupees Per 100 Kg On Thursday Due To Fresh Sell By The Market Participants.

Prices have breached 6,300 levels for the second time this week due to good rains in South peninsula and higher deliveries at Exchange. For June, about 3400 tonnes of delivery allocation is done till 21st June against 10 tonnes delivery last year. Turmeric exports during the month of March, up 25.5% y/y to 13,140 tonnes (Vs 10,473 t), as per govt data. While, turmeric exports in 2018/19 is up by 19.2% compared to last year. Country exported about 1.33 lakh tonnes of turmeric in FY 18-19 compared to 1.11 lt last year. In 2018/19, production is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government.

Turmeric futures expected to trade under pressure on higher stocks with traders and farmers. Moreover, good progress to monsoon rains in Turmeric growing areas may pressurize prices further as season progresses.

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NCDEX Jul Soybean Edged Higher For The Fourth Consecutive Session On Thursday Due To Short Covering 


CBOT Soybean closed lower on Thursday on reports of weak exports data and forecast of dry weather in coming weeks which will enhance sowing activities. USDA Export Sales report indicated just 168,175 MT of old crop soybeans sales during the week of June 20, below expectations. Chinese imports of soybeans were down 24% in May from the same month last year at 7.36 MMT, with 977,024 MT from US.

However, monsoon rains will be very crucial in next two weeks as sowing is slow. As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean was 53,000 ha so far, down about 57% from last year acreage of 1.24 lakh ha. Soybean arrivals for the Oct-May period pegged at 84.75 lt, up by 19.4% on year as per SPOA report. Until April, country crushed about 67.8 lt of soybean compared to 60.5 lt last year. In the 3rd advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.43 lt (Vs 109.33 last year). USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year

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Turmeric futures edged lower to close at 6,376 rupees per 100 kg on Wednesday due to profit booking by the market participants.

Prices have improved after it slipped to 12-weeks low (6,230 levels) on Monday due to higher deliveries at Exchange. For June, about 3400 tonnes of delivery allocation is done till 21st June against 10 tonnes delivery last year. As per Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of March, up 25.5% y/y to 13,140 tonnes (Vs 10,473 t). While, turmeric exports in 2018/19 is up by 19.2% compared to last year. Country exported about 1.33 lakh tonnes of turmeric in FY 18-19 compared to 1.11 lt last year. In 2018/19, production is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government. 

Turmeric futures expected to trade under pressure on higher stocks with traders and farmers. However, improving export demand and forecast of below normal rains in the turmeric growing areas of the country may support prices as season progresses
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ICE cotton futures moved up more than 1% on optimism over ease of trade dispute between US and China.

Market participants covered their short positions in view of scheduled meeting between US president Trump and Chinese President Xi in G20 summit under which they might resolve the trade dispute between them. Most active Dec delivery cotton futures moved up by 1.08% and closed the day at 66.43 cent/lb. At domestic front, MCX cotton futures for July bounced back on Wednesday following firmness in ICE cotton futures. Moreover, adverse weather condition for planting progress in central region also helped prices to trade on positive bias. Calander Spread between July and June futures reached up to -600 on Wednesday. Most active July delivery cotton futures traded at MCX settled the day at Rs 21720 per bales higher by 1.59%

However, cotton planting has been higher in Gujarat by 29% y/y as about 7.67 lakh hectare of area was sown under cotton till 24th June in Gujarat compare to 2.41 lakh hectare of prior year. Farmers in northern region of India has shown good interest to cultivate cotton over the other commercial crop due to better realization thereby overall acreages of cotton in northern states like Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana has increased during year 2019-20 

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NCDEX Jul Soybean edged higher on Thursday due to short covering

However, monsoon rains will be very crucial in next two weeks as sowing is slow. As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean was 53,000 ha so far, down about 57% from last year acreage of 1.24 lakh ha. Soybean arrivals for the Oct-May period pegged at 84.75 lt, up by 19.4% on year as per SPOA report. Until April, country crushed about 67.8 lt of soybean compared to 60.5 lt last year. In the 3 rd advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.43 lt (Vs 109.33 last year). USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year.

CBOT Soybean closed lower on Tuesday on forecast of dry weather in coming weeks which will enhance sowing activities. Money managers in soybean futures and options trimmed their net short position by 35,848 contracts as of 6/18 to -55,307 contracts according to COT data. Chinese imports of soybeans were down 24% in May from the same month last year at 7.36 MMT, with 977,024 MT from US.
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Turmeric futures closed higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday due to short covering

It slipped to 12-weeks low on Monday due to higher deliveries at Exchange. For June, about 3400 tonnes of delivery allocation is done till 21st June against 10 tonnes delivery last year. As per Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of March, up 25.5% y/y to 13,140 tonnes (Vs 10,473 t). While, turmeric exports in 2018/19 is up by 19.2% compared to last year. Country exported about 1.33 lakh tonnes of turmeric in FY 18-19 compared to 1.11 lt last year. In 2018/19, production is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government.

Turmeric futures expected to trade under pressure on higher stocks with traders and farmers. However, improving export demand and forecast of below normal rains in the turmeric growing areas of the country may support prices as season progresses
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ICE cotton futures traded in a limited range on Tuesday as market remained cautious

Cotton prices are likely to trade sideways to down today mainly due to improved supply outlook supported by rise in imports. India has imported about 9.28 lakh bales of cotton till end of May during year 2018-19 out of the estimated imports about 31 lakh bales and rest of the imports is likely to arrive in upcoming weeks. Moreover, picking of sowing activities along with the well progress of monsoon rainfall could be other factor which may keep prices under pressure in near term.

Moreover, recovery in US dollar index also capped the major upward move in cotton on Wednesday. US dollar index closed at 96.14 Dec delivery up by 0.17%. ICE cotton futures for Dec delivery settled the day at 65.72 cent/lb, marginally down by 0.02% from the previous close. At monsoon front, Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan & Madhya Maharashtra, some parts of north Arabian Sea and south Gujarat and some more parts of Madhya Pradesh.

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NCDEX Jul Soybean edged higher on Tuesday due to technical bounce

CBOT Soybean closed lower on Tuesday on forecast of dry weather in coming weeks which will enhance sowing activities. Money managers in soybean futures and options trimmed their net short position by 35,848 contracts as of 6/18 to -55,307 contracts according to COT data. Chinese imports of soybeans were down 24% in May from the same month last year at 7.36 MMT, with 977,024 MT from US.

The prices have been under pressure due to expectation of higher planting and sufficient stocks in the physical market. Moreover, slow down in soymeal exports is also a worry. As per SEA, country export only export 40,000 tonnes of soy meal in May down 41.4% y/y. Moreover, for Apr-May period, India shipped out about 58,470 tonnes of soybean meal down 59% compared to last year. Soybean futures expected to trade sideways due to advancement of monsoon rains in Central India. Moreover increasing edible oil imports and declining meal exports may put extra pressure on Oilseeds as the sowing season progressing.

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MCX Jun cotton edged lower on Monday on reports of good start to cotton planning in Gujarat.

Gujarat area under cotton is higher by 15% as in 17th June 2019 at 1.61 lakh hac. However, as per farm ministry report, acreage under cotton in the country was 18.18 lakh ha so far, lower than 20.68 lakh ha from a year ago. Recently, CAI has projected cotton exports at 46 lakh bales (Vs 69) due to higher prices and smaller crop size.

ICE cotton closed edged higher on Monday, supported by a weak U.S. dollar and anticipation of positive trade outcome in G20 meeting. The presidents of the United States and China are set to meet next week in Japan and markets are hopeful the world's two biggest economies could see an end to their long-standing titfor-tat tariff dispute. NASS indicated that cotton planting is wrapping up, with 96% completed vs. the 98% average pace. Outlook

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