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How was April like for Singapore market?
STI gained a nice 5.85% in April as it broke pass 2 major resistances in a single month. The sentiments in April was generally upbeat as US and China continue to move along positively in the trade talk, US corporate earnings remain healthy and DBS (a major component of the STI) posted solid earning for 2018.



How was the portfolio performance in March?
My system's SG portfolio made a slight loss of 0.79% this month as one of the stock in the portfolio China Everbright made a 12% loss on the last trading of the month and thus pulled the portfolio into the reds again despite the great performance of Penguin Intl which has risen 12.50%. Fortunately again, position sizing saved the portfolio from large drawdowns - the same advice, never put all the eggs into one basket. In addition, patience is crucial here. Despite having several consecutive red quarters, I will still continue to follow the strategy and trading rules strictly and systematically, while patiently waiting for profit to return as this strategy has been backtested to outperform the market in the long run. That is one of the most important rule of systematic trading.

Total return since inception fell slightly to +35.94%.



April return: -0.79% (ES3: +6.22%)

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +35.94%.

What's going to happen in May?
The system has been bullish since February 2019. However, despite the huge run-up of STI in April, the overall market sentiments has plateaued since April. The adage 'sell in May and go away' could be a potential risk to the market. We will have to monitor closely because if the market reverses, it could happen pretty fast. To know first hand where the market is heading every week, subscribe to our subscription package. Visit our main page to find out more.

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How was April like for US stock market?
April was a rather good month for the US stock market with S&P500 and NASDAQ breaking new all time highs while Dow Jones is closing in on its own record high. The bull remained strong as investors are optimistic about trade talks between US and China and the earning reports of 80% of companies beat expectation. The US economy remains strong and unemployment is at all time low. For the month of April, Dow Jones made a 2.56% gain, while S&P500 gained 3.93% and NASDAQ gained 4.74%.



How did the portfolio perform in April?
My US portfolio made a slight gain of 1.27% in April. None of the stocks made huge gain and none plummet as well. Total return since inception is now +68.19%.



Portfolio March return: +1.27%

Portfolio YTD return: -0.89%

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +68.19%

What is going to happen in May?
Overall market has been bullish after the Fed's decision to refrain from rising rates this year.  However, since March, the overall market appears to have plateaued despite the indexes breaking new high  This discrepancy is something to take note as it could mean the market is going to reverse (or it could be just taking a breather). To follow closely and get weekly updates of where the market is heading, do subscribe to our premium service. Visit our main page to find out more.


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Here are some of the Singapore stocks caught in the system's radar for this week. Number of breakout stocks remained high.  Do not forget to check out our system's performance on our main page.

Company descriptions and charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance.



Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGX: Z74)
Singapore Telecommunications Limited provides a portfolio of communication and technology, and infotainment services to consumers and businesses in Asia, Australia, and Africa. It operates through three segments: Group Consumer, Group Enterprise, and Group Digital Life.
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Telecom Services




Bumitama Agri Ltd. (SGX: P8Z)
Bumitama Agri Ltd., an investment holding company, produces and trades in crude palm oil (CPO), palm kernel (PK), and related products for refineries in Indonesia. It is involved in cultivating oil palm trees; and harvesting and processing fresh palm fruit bunches (FFB) into CPO and PK.
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Farm Products



United Overseas Bank Limited (SGX: U11)
United Overseas Bank Limited provides financial products and services. The company's Group Retail segment provides deposits, insurance, card, wealth management, investment, and loan and trade financing products for personal and small enterprise customers.
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks - Regional - Asia







Yongnam Holdings Limited (SGX: AXB)
Yongnam Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides engineering and construction services in Singapore, Hong Kong, and rest of Asia. The company's Structural Steelworks division engages in the engineering coordination, detailing, and fabrication and erection of structural steel.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Engineering & Construction




Singapore Post Limited (SGX: S08)
Singapore Post Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides postal, e-commerce logistics, and retail services in Singapore, the United States, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Postal, Logistics, eCommerce, and Property.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Business Services
PropNex Limited (SGX: OYY)
DPropNex Limited provides an integrated real estate services in Singapore. It operates through five segments: Real Estate Agency Services, Real Estate Project Marketing Services, Administrative Support Services, Property Management Services, and Training Services.
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Services




Frasers Property Limited (SGX: TQ5)
Frasers Property Limited, a real estate company, owns, develops, and manages an integrated portfolio of properties. It operates through four business units: Singapore, Australia, Hospitality, and Europe and rest of Asia. The company's assets range from residential, retail, commercial, and business parks to industrial and logistics in Singapore, Australia, Europe, China, and Southeast Asia.
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Services




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Here are some of the Singapore stocks caught in the system's radar for this week. Number of breakout stocks increased with many coming from big caps. Even SGX:ES3 (STI ETF) is caught in the radar. However the small caps stocks are generally not performing that well comparatively. This divergence is something worth taking note of. Do not forget to check out our system's performance on our main page.

Company descriptions and charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance.



SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (SGX: ES3)
The fund's investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the performance of the Straits Times Index.
Sector: n/a
Industry: n/a





The Hour Glass Limited (SGX: AGS)
The Hour Glass Limited, an investment holding company, retails and distributes watches, jewelry, and other luxury products in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, and Hong Kong.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Luxury Goods




Centurion Corporation Limited (SGX: OU8)
Centurion Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, develops, owns, and manages workers and students accommodation assets in Singapore, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Australia, and internationally. The company conducts its operations through Workers Accommodation, Student Accommodation, and Others segments.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Lodging




First Resources Limited (SGX: EB5)
First Resources Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the palm oil production activities in Singapore and Indonesia. The company operates through two segments, Plantations and Palm Oil Mills, and Refinery and Processing.
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Farm Products




Wilmar International Limited (SGX: F34)
Centurion Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, develops, owns, and manages workers and students accommodation assets in Singapore, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Australia, and internationally. The company conducts its operations through Workers Accommodation, Student Accommodation, and Others segments.
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Farm Products







DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05)
DBS Group Holdings Ltd provides financial products and services in Singapore, Hong Kong, rest of Greater China, South and Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through Consumer Banking/Wealth Management, Institutional Banking, Treasury Markets, and Others segments.
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks - Regional - Asia




Keppel Corporation Limited (SGX: BN4)
Keppel Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the offshore and marine, property, and infrastructure businesses in Singapore, China, Brazil, other Far East and ASEAN countries, and internationally.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Engineering & Construction




SATS Ltd. (SGX: S58)
SATS Ltd., an investment holding company, provides gateway services and food solutions in Singapore, Japan, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Food Solutions, Gateway Services, and Others.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Airports & Air Services




CapitaLand Limited (SGX: C31)
CapitaLand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and manages real estate properties in Singapore, North America, Europe, Asia, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through CapitaLand Singapore, CapitaLand China, CapitaLand Vietnam, and CapitaLand International segments.
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate - General







Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SGX: SV3U)
Soilbuild Business Space REIT (“Soilbuild REIT”) is a Singapore and Australia-focused real estate investment trust (“REIT”) with a portfolio of business parks and industrial properties used by industries engaging in manufacturing, engineering, logistic, warehousing, electronics, marine, oil & gas, research and development and value-added knowledge-based activities.
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: REIT - Industrial




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How was March like for Singapore market?
STI didn't make any gain in March as the market whipsawed throughout the month. The slowing down of the global economy particularly China and Europe has been putting pressure on the market. Investors were also spooked by the US Treasury yield curve inversion and the turmoil created by the Brexit. For the month of March, STI only made a minuscule gain of 0.0059%.

How was the portfolio performance in March?
My system's SG portfolio made a slight loss of 0.61% this month as one of the stock in the portfolio Japfa made a 12% loss. Fortunately as the system only allocates a fraction of total capital per stock, losses were kept in check. That's why all this while I kept emphasizing on position sizing and cutting losses which has kept my trading going and protected my profit despite the losing streaks the portfolio has encountered (while waiting for profit to return).Total return since inception fell slightly to +37.03%.



March return: -0.61% (ES3: -0.09%)

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +37.03%.

What's going to happen in April?
The system has been bullish from February to March. However, currently system is expecting the SG market to be in a plateau (in other words, whipsawing). The gloomy global economy outlook will continue to pressure the stock market as we enter into April. To know first hand where the market is heading every week, subscribe to our subscription package. Visit our main page to find out more.

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How was March like for US stock market?
For the month of March, all 3 major indexes ended in the positive territory despite increased concerns over the dim global economic outlook specifically in Europe and China as well as the inversion of the closely watched 3-mth to 10-yr Treasury bill. Investors cheered the Fed's decision to refrain from hiking the rates for the year. Dow Jones posted of a monthly gain 0.05%, S&P500 1.79% and NASDAQ 2.61%. For the first quarter of 2019, the major indexes have recorded gains of between 11% and 17%, their best stretch since 2009.

How did the portfolio perform in March?
My US portfolio has did not perform well in March as one of the stock in the portfolio (VHI) plummet 30% in a single day due to bad earnings. Fortunately once gain, position sizing saved the portfolio from disaster as only a small portion of the capital is allocated to each stock. The portfolio ended the month with a loss of 5.25% while SPY rose 1.81%. Total return since inception is now +65.73%.



Portfolio March return: -5.25%

Portfolio YTD return: -2.35%

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +65.73%

What is going to happen in April?
Overall market has been bullish after the Fed's decision to refrain from rising rates this year. As mentioned  in last month's report, the uptrend would remain strong and continue into March. True enough, that was what happened. However, moving into April, the bull appears to be weakening. As of now, it is not clear if this weakening will result in a reversal downward or the bull is just taking a breather. To follow closely and get weekly updates of where the market is heading, do subscribe to our premium service. Visit our main page to find out more.


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In May last year, I wrote extensively about how the yield curve inversion can be used as a reliable indicator of a stock market decline. It was correct 7 out of 8 times since the data was available in 1960s. You can check out the posts I wrote in May 2018 at:

  1. Is Negative Treasury Yield Curve a Good Leading Indicator for a Stock Market Crash? You'll want to know...
  2. More Observations on the Treasury Yield Curve. Fasten Your Seatbelt.



Yesterday the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady and indicated that there will be no more rate hikes for the rest of the year. The benchmark funds rate would be kept in a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. The Fed's recent dovish stance and the global economic slowdown has pressured bond yields as investors moved their money to less risky assets.

I have been using the 10-Yr to 1-Yr Treasury yield curve for my analysis. Some say I should use the 10-Yr to 2-Yr which is more widely observed. To me, 1 year or 2 years doesn't make much of a difference. I prefer the former because there are more data freely available. As of this writing, the difference between 10-Yr to 1-Yr has fallen to 0.07 (It was 0.70 ten months ago). the difference between 10-Yr to 2-Yr current stood at 0.12.





And yes if you are observant enough, currently the 1-Yr rate is higher rate than 2-Yr. Here is how the current yield curve across the different maturities look like.

From the chart above, you can see that all the shorter term rates (1-mth, 2-mth, 3-mth, 6-mth and 1-yr) are already higher than some of the longer term rates (2-yr, 3-yr, 5-yr and 7-yr) and the shorter term rates are considerably higher than they were at the start of 2018. In my previous post, I was expecting the inversion to happen around the 4-5% region. From the looks of it, it would be tough to even reach 3%. The lower the rates, the lesser fire power the Fed has to deal with the impending headwind.

What is going to happen next? 
It is almost certain that the 10-Yr to 1-Yr (and 2-Yr) will invert soon. And with so many people looking at it, it could turn out to be even sooner when self fulling prophesy kicks in. 7 out of 8 times when it happens, a stock market sell-off will follow. It could be another 1.5 years like what happened in the 2008 Great Recession or it could have already started like in 1973. Remember we had a knee jerking roller coaster style correction last year? Those declines may have jolly well be the start of the next sell-off.




What will DIYQuant do?
As mentioned in previous post, the yield curve inversion is a great leading indicator to have but the lead time is not granular enough for DIYQuant. A range of lead time between 0 and 1.5 years is too wide. If you have sold off when the yield curve inverted in 2007, you would have missed a 1.5 years of the following bull run. DIYQuant trading model depends on a proprietary indicator called Market Wide Trend Analysis (MATA) that so far had been able to accurately indicate the market reversal in February 2018, October 2018 and the bullish reversal in late December 2018. Check out below posts on how MATA accurately predicted the market reversals. Still, I would not ignore an inverted yield curve.

  1. How my system predicted the recent downturn? By looking at the data objectively
  2. Once Again DIYQuant System Predicted the Market Reversal
  3. This Stock Market Decline has been Foretold Months Ago. It's all in the Data

This article is based on my own analysis and my own opinion of the outcome. This does not constitute an investment advice and readers should perform own due diligence when making investment decisions.


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Here are some of the Singapore stocks caught in the system's radar for this week. Number of breakout stocks fell by half. Hmmm... let's hope this is not the market reversal just market taking a breather. Also do not forget to check out our system's performance on our main page.

Company descriptions and charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance.




ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited (SGX: C52)
ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a land transportation company. It offers public bus and charter bus services; rail services; motor vehicle evaluation and other related services; public taxi services through the rental of taxis to hirers; car rental, and car care and leasing services; outdoor advertising services; and taxi booking services. The company also provides vehicle inspection and other related services; non-vehicle testing, inspection, and consultancy services; coach services; private hire services; crash repair services; bus station services; professional and building inspection, and engineering services; charge card facilities; and charter, coach, and terminal services.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Railroads





Ascendas Hospitality Trust Stapled Units (SGX: Q1P)
Ascendas Hospitality Trust (“A-HTRUST”) was listed in July 2012 as a stapled group comprising Ascendas Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (“A-HREIT”) and Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust (“A-HBT”), established with the principal investment strategy of investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate used predominantly for hospitality purposes, as well as real estate related assets in connection with the foregoing.
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Services




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Here are some of the Singapore stocks caught in the system's radar for this week. Still a healthy number of them. The bull run is still intact despite the recent sell-off. Also do not forget to check out our system's performance on our main page.

Company descriptions and charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance.




Hanwell Holdings Limited (SGX: DM0)
Hanwell Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies provisions and household consumer products in Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Japan. The company operates through two segments, Consumer Essentials Consumer Business and Strategic Investments Packaging.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Packaging & Containers



Stamford Land Corporation Ltd (SGX: H07)
Stamford Land Corporation Ltd, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages luxury hotels in Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand. The company operates through five segments: Hotel Owning and Management, Property Development, Property Investment, and Others.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Lodging







Koufu Group Limited (SGX: VLB)
Koufu Group Limited, an investment holding company, manages and operates food and beverage establishments in Singapore. The company's Outlet & Mall Management Business segment operates 47 food courts, 14 coffee shops, 1 hawker center, and 1 commercial mall in Singapore, as well as 1 food court in Macau.
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Restaurants



DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05)
DBS Group Holdings Ltd provides financial products and services in Singapore, Hong Kong, rest of Greater China, South and Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through Consumer Banking/Wealth Management, Institutional Banking, Treasury Markets, and Others segments.
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks - Regional - Asia




Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd (SGX: C29)
Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in the construction, property development and investment, and hospitality businesses primarily in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, and Maldives. The company operates through Construction, Property Developments, Property Investments, Hospitality, and Corporate and Others segments.
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Engineering & Construction




Note: These stocks are part of the system's watchlist and may or may not eventually be purchased by the system due to various reasons such as risk management, market sentiments etc. Readers are advised to do their own due diligence. 

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How was February like for Singapore market?
Singapore stock market started the month strong, spurred by the Chinese New Year rally and the rally in the US stock market. Investors were also optimistic that a trade deal will be struck between US and China. However, the market made a reversal nearing the end of the month as weak data from China economy dampened investors' mood and the abrupt end of the US-North Korean Summit increased risk in the trade negotiation between US and China. STI ended the month with a slight gain of 0.71%.

How was the portfolio performance in February?
My system's SG portfolio made a slight loss of 0.30% this month due to the market reversal nearing the end of the month. Total return since inception fell slightly to +37.87%.



February return: -0.30% (ES3: +0.85%)

Total return since inception (since June 2016): +37.87%.

What's going to happen in March?
System has turned bullish in February. Despite the little reversal at the end of the month, it still maintains its bullishness at the moment. With the US stock market still going strong, I would expect to see SG market continue to march north in the month of March. To know where the market is heading every week, subscribe to our subscription package. Visit our main page to find out more.

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