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Round 18 of the AFL season features a host of clashes that will go a long way to determining the makeup of both the top four and top eight.

Adelaide v Essendon @ Adelaide Oval Friday 19th July, 19:50 (AEST)
Adelaide  Essendon
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Brown, Keath, Hartigan B Redman, Hooker, Gleeson
HB Seedsman, Talia, Smith HB McKenna, Hartley, Saad
C Knight, Greenwood, Milera C McGrath, Merrett, Zaharakis
HF Lynch, Walker, Sloane HF Guelfi, Francis, McDonald-Tipungwuti
F Betts, Jenkins, Murphy F Parish, Brown, Clarke
FOL O’Brien, M Crouch, B Crouch FOL McKernan, Snelling, Shiel
I/C Kelly, Mackay, Atkins, Laird I/C Ambrose, Stringer, Heppell, Langford


History:
Played 38: Adelaide 19 v Essendon 19.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 1, 2018: Adelaide 12.15 (87) lost to Essendon 14.15 (99).

Final Thoughts: The Bombers are on fire, having won five of their last six. A last-gasp win against North Melbourne last weekend has seen them into $1.45 in Palmerbet’s top eight market. They face an Adelaide side coming off the back of a 95-point win – but don’t be fooled by the result. A worrisome Suns outfit were simply never in the contest and while they’ll take the handy percentage points, Don Pyke will understand that this week presents a far tougher test. Brad Crouch has had 30+ disposals in seven of the Crows’ last eight games at Adelaide Oval. Can he turn it on again on Friday night?

Tip: Line: Essendon +14.5 @ $1.90

Richmond v Port Adelaide @ MCG Saturday 20th July, 13:45 (AEST)
Richmond Port Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Astbury, Broad, Grimes B Houston, Clurey, Bonner
HB Houli, Vlastuin, Edwards HB Hartlett, Jonas, Byrne-Jones
C Short, Prestia, Bolton C Duursma, Rockliff, Amon
HF Rioli, Castagna, Lambert HF R. Gray, Howard, Motlop
F Riewoldt, Stack, Lynch F Westhoff, Dixon, Rozee
FOL Soldo, Cotchin, Martin FOL Lycett, Powell-Papper, Boak
I/C Graham, Baker, Ellis, Chol I/C Broadbent, Butters, S. Gray, Sutcliffe


History:
Played 31: Richmond 12 v Port Adelaide 18 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2019: Port Adelaide 14.8 (92) lost to Richmond 15.9 (99).

Final Thoughts: The Tigers are back. Big time. After three straight wins, they’ve come screeching in from $18 premiership chances to $5.50. Richmond are an absolute juggernaut at the MCG during the day, having won their last 16 games at the home of footy during the daylight hours. The race for the top four is absolutely on (Richmond are now into $2.15 with Palmerbet) and a win here will naturally firm them in that market. The Power, on the other hand, are on the slide after back-to-back losses at home. Their first quarter effort against the Lions was particularly disappointing, and supporters are looking for a response. And fast.

Tip: Total score: Under 163.5 @ $1.90

Carlton v Gold Coast Suns @ Marvel Stadium Saturday 20th July, 14:10 (AEST)
Carlton Gold Coast
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Plowman, Jones, Simpson B Lukosius, Hombsch, Harbrow
HB Newman, Weitering, Thomas HB Joyce, Hanley, Ellis
C O’Brien, E. Curnow, Setterfield C Heron, Brodie, Fiorini
HF Gibbons, Casboult, Silvagni HF Sexton, Wright, Miller
F Fisher, McKay, Kennedy F Lemmens, Day, King
FOL Kreuzer, Cripps, Murphy FOL Witts, Swallow, MacPherson
I/C Petrevski-Seton, Walsh, Lang, Dow I/C Ballard, Burgess, Dawson, Rischitelli


History:
Played 11: Carlton 6 v Gold Coast 5.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2019: Gold Coast 8.11 (59) defeated Carlton 8.9 (57)

Final Thoughts: It’s the cellar-dweller battle. The AFL 17th and 18th best sides go head to head this weekend, except one team is in far better knick than the other. The Blues are on a roll under interim coach David Teague who, despite being told was leading the club on ‘training wheels’ by Chris Judd, has led the Blues to three wins in their last four. Carlton’s starting price ($1.21) is the shortest they’ve been in some time, and perhaps reflective of the dire state the Suns currently see themselves in. However, the Suns have covered the line in each of their last seven matches at Marvel. Could they do it again?

Tip: Line: Gold Coast +31.5 @ $1.90

Greater Western Sydney v Collingwood @ Giants Stadium Saturday 20th July, 16:35 (AEST)
GWS Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Davis, Taylor, Williams B Maynard, Roughead, Quaynor
HB Whitfield, Haynes, Shaw HB Aish, Howe, Adams
C Tomlinson, Hopper, Daniels C Phillips, Pendlebury, Sidebottom
HF Reid, Cameron, Greene HF Brown, Cox, Hoskin-Elliott
F Lloyd, Himmelberg, Finlayson F De Goey, Mihocek, Varcoe
FOL Simpson, Perryman, Taranto FOL Grundy, Treloar, Crisp
I/C Deledio, Stein, Hill, Mumford I/C Appleby, Crocker, Mayne, Sier

 

History: Played 8: GWS 2 v Collingwood 6.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 25, 2018: Collingwood 9.15 (69) defeated GWS 9.5 (59).

Final Thoughts: The Giants are in free-fall, having somehow lost four of their last five. Their 27-point loss last week to the Tigers was compounded by the news star midfielder Stephen Coniglio has likely played his last game for the season. The Pies, on the other hand, responded to criticism last week in the best possible way. In knocking off the Eagles by a point, they’ve made a big statement that they’re still a huge force in 2019. And given the Pies have won seven of their last eight away games, are they set for another big win on the road?

Tip: To get 30+ disposals: Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) @ $2.10

Brisbane v North Melbourne @ The Gabba Saturday 20th July, 19:25 (AEST)
Brisbane North Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Hodge, Andrews, Bailey B Williams, Thompson, Macmillan
HB Witherden, Gardiner, Rich HB Pittard, Tarrant, Atley
C McCarthy, Neale, Robinson C Dumont, Anderson, Polec
HF Rayner, Hipwood, McCluggage HF Simpkin, Larkey, Thomas
F Cameron, McStay, Zorko F Zurhaar, Brown, Ziebell
FOL Martin, J. Berry, J. Lyons FOL Goldstein, Higgins, Cunnington
I/C Christensen, Adams, Answerth, McInerney I/C Turner, Durdin, Wood, Hrovat


History:
Played 37: Brisbane 16 v North Melbourne 20 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 2, 2019: North Melbourne 13.9 (87) lost to Brisbane 16.11 (107).

Final Thoughts: The Lions are into $9 for the flag after being $64 less than a month ago. Their rise upwards this season has been nothing short of remarkable. Having secured a spot in the top four, they’ll be desperate to hold on. But this week is far from a gimme, and the Roos should provide a stern test. While the Lions have won their last seven Saturday matches in Queensland, Rhyce Shaw’s young squad are looking to bounce back from a gallant last-gasp loss to rival Essendon last weekend. Should they wish to maintain their slimming finals hopes, they’ll need four points at The Gabba.

Tip: Line: North Melbourne +17.5 @ $1.90

Fremantle v Sydney @ Optus Stadium Saturday 20th July, 20:10 (AEST)
Fremantle Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Wilson, Hamling, Ryan B Melican, Rampe, O’Riordan
HB Blakely, Duman, S. Hill HB Mills, McCartin, Lloyd
C B. Hill, Conca, Langdon C Jones, Parker, Hewett
HF Tucker, Walters, Switkowski HF Fox, Reid, Florent
F Matera, Lobb, McCarthy F Hayward, Blakey, Papley
FOL Sandilands, Cerra, Mundy FOL Aliir, Kennedy, Heeney
I/C Logue, Brayshaw, Bewley, Darcy I/C McLean, Rowbottom, Clarke, Stoddart

 

History: Played 34: Fremantle 14 v Sydney 19 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 9, 2018: Sydney 17.9 (111) defeated Fremantle 7.10 (52).

Final Thoughts: The Swans looked almost certain to go past the Blues last weekend, but bottled it at home on a windy Saturday afternoon. As such, their slim finals hopes are all but dashed, looking certain to miss the finals for the first time since 2009. Nevertheless, John Longmire’s young side are on the path to continuous improvement, and are a chance to knock off a Freo side who are much further in the mire. With four straight defeats, Ross Lyon is staring down the barrel of another year outside the top eight. A win on Saturday night is non-negotiable, if anything to calm the growing discontent from fans. However they’ll have to do so without skipper Nat Fyfe, who is a huge out.

Tip: To get 25+ disposals: George Hewett (Syd) @ $2.50

Geelong v Hawthorn @ MCG Sunday 21st July, 13:10 (AEST)
Geelong Hawthorn
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Tuohy, Taylor, Bews B O’Brien, Frawley, Impey
HB Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart HB Burgoyne, Sicily, Hardwick
C Miers, Kelly, Dangerfield C Scully, Howe, Henderson
HF Dahlhaus, Ratugolea, Rohan HF Breust, Wingard, Puopolo
F Ablett, Hawkins, Guthrie F Hanrahan, Lewis, Shiels
FOL Stanley, O’Connor, J. Selwood FOL McEvoy, O’Meara, Worpel
I/C Smith, S. Selwood, Henry, Clark, Atkins, Kolodjashnij, Parsons, Simpson I/C Birchall, Stratton, Ceglar, Cousins, Nash, Minchington, Smith, Gunston


History:
Played 165: Geelong 90 v Hawthorn 74 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 5, 2019: Hawthorn 13.12 (90) lost to Geelong 17.11 (113).

Final Thoughts: One of the competition’s biggest rivalry resumes this weekend on what should (hopefully) be a Sunday afternoon cracker. The Cats are unbeaten in their four games at the MCG this year, and will want to maintain that record as we head towards September. The Hawks have hit some form and look more of a chance in this clash than what they would have three weeks ago. They also rarely get beaten badly, and have lost their last six away games by 1-39 points. Further, three of the last four games between these two clubs have finished with a margin of 15 points or less. Are we set for another tight one?

Tip: Margin: Geelong by 1-24pts @ $3.00

Melbourne v West Coast @ TIO Traeger Park Sunday 21st July, 15:20 (AEST)
Melbourne West Coast 
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Lever, May, Jetta B Hurn, Barrass, Sheppard
HB Petty, Frost, Hibberd HB Jetta, McGovern, Cole
C Hunt, Harmes, Jones C Gaff, Yeo, Masten
HF Lewis, Petracca, Fritsch HF Cameron, Darling, Rioli
F Oliver, Preuss, Salem F Ryan, Kennedy, Allen
FOL Gawn, Viney, Brayshaw FOL Hickey, Redden, Shuey
I/C Lockhart, C. Wagner, Neal-Bullen, Dunkley, J. Wagner, Baker, Hannan, Smith I/C Waterman, Sheed, Petruccelle, Watson, Nelson, Schofield, Williams, Allen


History:
Played 52: Melbourne 17 v West Coast 35.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 9, 2018: West Coast 13.7 (85) defeated Melbourne 9.15 (69).

Final Thoughts: Less than 12 months ago these two clubs played off in a preliminary final, but oh how things have changed since then. The Eagles have remained one of the competition’s forces, while the Dees have slid that far down the ladder that they’ll be in 17th without a win here (provided Carlton beat the Suns). And recent history isn’t pretty reading, either. The Eagles have won each of the last four clashes by a margin of more than 40 points. Adam Simpson is still eyeing off second spot (and with that, a home qualifying final) and after last week’s loss against the Pies, will see this as a huge chance for four points on the road.

Tip: Total score: Over 166.5 @ $1.90

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium Sunday 21st July, 16:40 (AEST)
St Kilda Western Bulldogs
Pos Player Pos Player
B
Coffield, Brown, Savage B Johannisen, Trengove, Crozier
HB Wilkie, Carlisle, Clark HB Duryea, Cordy, Wood
C Billings, Ross, Newnes C Hunter, Smith, Lipinski
HF Hind, Bruce, Dunstan HF Suckling, Schache, Lloyd
F Lonie, Membrey, Langlands F Naughton, Bontempelli, Dickson
FOL Marshall, Gresham, Steele FOL English, Dunkley, Macrae
I/C Acres, Paton, Parker, Sinclair, McKenzie, Rice, Joyce, Rowe I/C West, Richards, Liberatore, Dale, Williams, Daniel, Smith, Morris


History:
Played 160: St Kilda 81 v Western Bulldogs 76 (3 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 3, 2019: Brisbane 16.11 (107) defeated Port Adelaide 13.12 (90).

Final Thoughts: The Dogs are on the charge, continuing an unlikely charge towards September. At 8-8, they’re now a huge chance following wins against Port Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne. But they’re not an overly clinical side when priced as favourites, winning just four of their last seven. The Saints on the other hand are coming off a tough week which saw it say goodbye, perhaps expectedly, to their coach Alan Richardson. With Brett Ratten now at the helm, can he follow the lead of Rhyce Shaw and David Teague to make an instant mark as senior coach?

Tip: Margin: Western Bulldogs by 25+ points @ $2.30

The post AFL Tips & Preview – Round 18 appeared first on Palmerbet..

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While Geelong remains the AFL premiership favourites, two other ‘big cats’ have shortened considerably in recent weeks – the Tigers and Lions.

It was only a few short weeks ago that both Richmond and Brisbane were being scoffed at as premiership hopes. The Tigers, going into the bye on the back of three straight losses, were seemingly setting themselves for a mediocre end to 2019. After round 14 they sat a distant $18 in Palmerbet’s AFL premiership market – a far cry from the $5 they started the season at. Similarly, the Lions went into the bye after a loss to (at the time) bottom-placed Carlton. After their bye, they sat at an incredible $64 to win this season’s flag.

But multiple wins on the bounce for both clubs has changed everything. Their premiership windows are now, all of a sudden, wide open.

Tiger time

First, Damien Hardwick’s side knocked off the under-fire Saints; sure, an expected win. Next, they obliterated the Suns – again, expectedly. That win, however, was decidedly clinical, and you had the sense they were building. And then, on the weekend, they made their biggest statement of the AFL season, knocking off the Giants by 27 points. It was a warning to the rest of the competition, that they were far from an outside chance in 2019. Rather, they were right up there with the best. The victory has now seen them into $5.50.

In any weather 😄☔️#AFLTigersGiants #gotiges pic.twitter.com/xxn9czoK07

— Richmond FC 🐯 (@Richmond_FC) July 14, 2019

It’s not just the AFL premiership market that the Tiges have made big strides in. Now into fifth, they’re back in the top four hunt, too. At the bye, Richmond were at $6.50 to earn themselves the double chance this September. Yet the aforementioned three straight wins has seen them into $2.15 in that market. And with their twin key forwards gelling on the weekend, things are looking ominous for the rest of the AFL competition.

What does the forward-line dynamic between Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt mean for Richmond's finals hopes?

WATCH: Channel 9 | #9FootyClassified pic.twitter.com/dXrY967tbe

— Footy Classified (@FootyClassified) July 15, 2019

Lions roaring

Like the Tigers, Brisbane have hit a purple patch. Starting the season as $71 premiership hopes, and only slightly into $64 just a matter of weeks ago, Chris Fagan’s young side are now incredibly into $9 to take out the biggest prize in footy this September.

So, Brisbane can win the flag…#AFLPortLions

— Sam McClure (@sam_mcclure) July 14, 2019

A spot in the AFL top eight (which now seems all but guaranteed) would snap a ten-year finals drought for the Lions. But they won’t be content with just top eight. Given they’re now into third, they’ll want to secure the top four in the coming weeks. Currently, they’re $1.55 in that market with Palmerbet (they started the season at $12).

Chris Fagan chucking the verbals from the back row of the bench as well! #AFLPowerLions pic.twitter.com/txvFZ9kYCm

— Mitch Cleary (@cleary_mitch) July 14, 2019

Dissecting the run home

Naturally, one of the most important aspects of determining where both clubs will finish comes down to their fixture for the remainder of the AFL season. They read as follows:

  • Richmond: Port Adelaide (home), Collingwood (away*), Melbourne (away*), Carlton (home), West Coast (home), Brisbane (home).
  • Brisbane: North Melbourne (home), Hawthorn (away), Western Bulldogs (home), Gold Coast (home), Geelong (home), Richmond (away).

*Still at the MCG

The biggest take out from that is that Brisbane play four of their last six games at home. The last game of the season, however, they travel to the MCG to play, ironically, the Tigers. Could it be a straight shootout for the double chance?

Is Richmond-Brisbane game a chance to be the Friday night game in Round 23?

Might decide fourth spot.

— Kingy 📻 (@tom_king79) July 14, 2019

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The post AFL – Big Cats Roar Into Flag Hopes appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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Round 17 of the AFL season saw the Pies silence growing critics, Freo’s woes continue and the Lions confirm that they’re the real deal.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Pie night in the West

The win could hardly have meant more for a beleaguered Collingwood. Backs to the wall, they prevailed by a point against an in-form West Coast side to reaffirm belief. The Pies’ quality has come under question in recent weeks, with consecutive losses to sides outside the AFL top eight. And the form slump saw them drop from $3.75 premiership chances with Palmerbet to $7. Given their drop in output, they started Friday night’s clash as $2.98 outsiders.

But the ensuing win, by the smallest of margins nonetheless, sees them back into $5.50 in the flag market. Importantly at this stage of the season, it also firms them in the top four market. Nathan Buckley’s troops are now $1.35 to earn the double chance in AFL season 2019.

A win for the ages.#AFLEaglesPies #GoPies pic.twitter.com/Ew1eHb5CYq

— Collingwood FC (@CollingwoodFC) July 12, 2019

#AFLEaglesPies
That’s the best win of any club in 2019 when you add in the scrutiny/pressure this week and last.
The Eagles were just ramping up for Sept.
Darcy Moore out of game.
4 losses for @CollingwoodFC in a row would’ve been poison.
Magnificent last two minutes#sidebyside

— Mark Allen (@MarkAllenGolf) July 12, 2019

Lions real deal

Another week, and another performance that solidifies the Lions position as a genuine flag chance this AFL season. In blowing Port Adelaide out of the water (despite start as $2.31 outsiders) with a seven goals to two opening term, Chris Fagan’s young side are now a game clear inside the top four. Their run home, too, is favourable. With four games at the Gabba in their final six games, they are now $1.55 to finish in the top four. Happy days at the Lions’ den.

I don’t think there’s any other player in the league that puts their body on the line for the team as much as @MitchRobinson05 does. Sensational. 🦁 #AFLPowerLions

— Kate Coombes 🌸 (@KateCoombes13) July 14, 2019

Freo slide further

No side has slipped further in the last month than Fremantle. And another loss on the weekend – their fourth straight – sees their season all but done. The defeat in Launceston to Hawthorn sees them slip way out to $15.05 to make the AFL finals with Palmerbet, after being a favoured $1.62 just four weeks ago. The Hawks, on the other hand, are on the charge. But their tilt at a top eight spot might just prove a little too late…

Happy Hawks in Tassie 😃#AFLHawksFreo pic.twitter.com/eP6skc9E8w

— Michael Willson (@MichaelCWillson) July 13, 2019

Season done for Swans

Barring a freak run of results, it would seem Sydney’s loss to Carlton on Saturday afternoon has sealed the Bloods’ fate this AFL season. A fortnight ago the Swans had shortened into $4.50 to make the finals after a strong run of results. Despite being 6-8, games against Essendon and Carlton meant they were a chance to be an even 8-8. But two weeks later it’s curtains on their 2019. A poor loss to the Blues (despite starting as $1.34 favourites) sees them way out to $16 and seemingly out of the finals race.

Meanwhile, interim coach David Teague’s young Blues are up and about. Young star Sam Walsh starred again on the weekend, and has firmed into a strong $1.25 to take out this season’s AFL Rising Star award.

Three wins for @CarltonFC in 5 weeks

Three wins for Carlton in the 93 weeks before that#AFLSwansBlues

— Joshua Kay (@js_kay) July 13, 2019

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The post AFL – Round 17 in Review appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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After consecutive defeats to clubs outside the AFL top eight, is Collingwood’s recent woes becoming more than just a hiccup?

A fortnight ago, despite beating the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley savaged his side’s performance. Buckley said the nine-point win was “the worst we’ve played for a long time” and criticised the effort of his troops. Some said the comments were a bit harsh, considering they had notched their ninth win in 10 games. But it would prove a taste of what was to come. In the two games since that clash, the Pies have lost to both North Melbourne and Hawthorn – clubs that are both outside the AFL top eight. The considerable dip in form has seen them drop from $3.75 second-favourites for the flag, now out to $7 with Palmerbet.

So, are they still premiership hopes?

Hawthorn take down the Pies!#AFLHawksPies pic.twitter.com/1GS2gDxaSo

— 7AFL (@7AFL) July 5, 2019

Have a look at the Pies Inside 50’s in the last 5 weeks. This is a broken team structurally.

— Terry Wallace (@thelistmanager) July 5, 2019

Double chance under threat

The sheer number of wins accumulated by the Pies (currently in third place at 10-5) in the first half of the season leaves them still with a strong chance of finishing in the top four. And as decades of finals footy attests to, the vast majority of AFL premiership sides finish in the top four. But with GWS and Richmond (fifth and sixth respectively) circling, Collingwood’s once handy buffer no longer exists. Before the loss to North Melbourne, the Pies were an almost-certain $1.10 to finish in the top four with Palmerbet. But recent wobbles has now seen them out to $1.70.

“There’s a lot of holes in Collingwood’s game and I think slowly they’ve started to be found out.” https://t.co/w1FDt08wLV

— Triple M Footy (@triplemfooty) July 6, 2019

Leigh Matthews on 3AW prematch yesterday. “Collingwood looked passive” at the first bounce. Remarkably Steele Sidebottom agreed. Matthew Lloyd: “I would love seven days with Mason Cox. He has a massive technical issue. Imagine what McGovern will do to him.”

— Jon Ralph (@RalphyHeraldSun) July 7, 2019

Tough road ahead

Unfortunately for Buckley, the fixturing gods have given Collingwood no respite in the coming weeks. They travel to Perth on Thursday for a Friday night clash against perhaps the AFL’s most in-form side in West Coast. Adam Simpson’s Eagles outfit have beaten the black and white on the last four occasions, including last year’s grand final. And given they’re coming off a breathtaking 91-point win in last week’s derby, they start as solid $1.40 favourites. Collingwood are currently $2.98.

Have Collingwood’s off-field distractions contributed to their form? Scott Pendlebury spoke exclusively about the Jordan De Goey incident.

WATCH: Channel 9 | #9FootyClassified pic.twitter.com/VOQrnNv49f

— Footy Classified (@FootyClassified) July 8, 2019

And that’s not it. The aforementioned GWS and Richmond, both yapping at the heels of the Pies on the AFL ladder, face off against Buckley’s boys in the next two weeks. There’s a distinct possibility that, should Collingwood not pick itself up off the floor quick smart, they’re back towards the bottom of the top eight.

Lions the new upstarts?

Last year it was the young Pies that stunned the competition at this time of the year. From rounds 9-16 the Pies won seven on the bounce, by an average of 34 points a game. There was an enormous amount of positivity emanating from the club, as even outside fans began to warm to the AFL’s traditionally most-hated club.

But could this year’s version of Collingwood 2018 be the Lions? Most footy fans knew the Lions were on the rise, but only some would have picked them for them to finish in the top eight this AFL season. Another year getting games into the kids and 2020 could be their year, or so the footy world thought. But all of a sudden, after a brilliant month was capped off with a win over the Giants on Sunday, they’re genuine top four contenders at $2.10 with Palmerbet.

Ladder position for @brisbanelions after round 16…

2010 1️⃣3️⃣
2011 1️⃣5️⃣
2012 1️⃣3️⃣
2013 1️⃣3️⃣
2014 1️⃣7️⃣
2015 1️⃣8️⃣
2016 1️⃣7️⃣
2017 1️⃣8️⃣
2018 1️⃣6️⃣
2019 4️⃣

🦁 🚀 #AFLGiantsLions

— Joshua Kay (@js_kay) July 7, 2019

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The post AFL – Is The Panic Button Closer Than Pies Think? appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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After consecutive defeats to clubs outside the AFL top eight, is Collingwood’s recent woes becoming more than just a hiccup?

A fortnight ago, despite beating the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley savaged his side’s performance. Buckley said the nine-point win was “the worst we’ve played for a long time” and criticised the effort of his troops. Some said the comments were a bit harsh, considering they had notched their ninth win in 10 games. But it would prove a taste of what was to come. In the two games since that clash, the Pies have lost to both North Melbourne and Hawthorn – clubs that are both outside the AFL top eight. The considerable dip in form has seen them drop from $3.75 second-favourites for the flag, now out to $7 with Palmerbet.

So, are they still premiership hopes?

Hawthorn take down the Pies!#AFLHawksPies pic.twitter.com/1GS2gDxaSo

— 7AFL (@7AFL) July 5, 2019

Have a look at the Pies Inside 50’s in the last 5 weeks. This is a broken team structurally.

— Terry Wallace (@thelistmanager) July 5, 2019

Double chance under threat

The sheer number of wins accumulated by the Pies (currently in third place at 10-5) in the first half of the season leaves them still with a strong chance of finishing in the top four. And as decades of finals footy attests to, the vast majority of AFL premiership sides finish in the top four. But with GWS and Richmond (fifth and sixth respectively) circling, Collingwood’s once handy buffer no longer exists. Before the loss to North Melbourne, the Pies were an almost-certain $1.10 to finish in the top four with Palmerbet. But recent wobbles has now seen them out to $1.70.

“There’s a lot of holes in Collingwood’s game and I think slowly they’ve started to be found out.” https://t.co/w1FDt08wLV

— Triple M Footy (@triplemfooty) July 6, 2019

Leigh Matthews on 3AW prematch yesterday. “Collingwood looked passive” at the first bounce. Remarkably Steele Sidebottom agreed. Matthew Lloyd: “I would love seven days with Mason Cox. He has a massive technical issue. Imagine what McGovern will do to him.”

— Jon Ralph (@RalphyHeraldSun) July 7, 2019

Tough road ahead

Unfortunately for Buckley, the fixturing gods have given Collingwood no respite in the coming weeks. They travel to Perth on Thursday for a Friday night clash against perhaps the AFL’s most in-form side in West Coast. Adam Simpson’s Eagles outfit have beaten the black and white on the last four occasions, including last year’s grand final. And given they’re coming off a breathtaking 91-point win in last week’s derby, they start as solid $1.40 favourites. Collingwood are currently $2.98.

Have Collingwood’s off-field distractions contributed to their form? Scott Pendlebury spoke exclusively about the Jordan De Goey incident.

WATCH: Channel 9 | #9FootyClassified pic.twitter.com/VOQrnNv49f

— Footy Classified (@FootyClassified) July 8, 2019

And that’s not it. The aforementioned GWS and Richmond, both yapping at the heels of the Pies on the AFL ladder, face off against Buckley’s boys in the next two weeks. There’s a distinct possibility that, should Collingwood not pick itself up off the floor quick smart, they’re back towards the bottom of the top eight.

Lions the new upstarts?

Last year it was the young Pies that stunned the competition at this time of the year. From rounds 9-16 the Pies won seven on the bounce, by an average of 34 points a game. There was an enormous amount of positivity emanating from the club, as even outside fans began to warm to the AFL’s traditionally most-hated club.

But could this year’s version of Collingwood 2018 be the Lions? Most footy fans knew the Lions were on the rise, but only some would have picked them for them to finish in the top eight this AFL season. Another year getting games into the kids and 2020 could be their year, or so the footy world thought. But all of a sudden, after a brilliant month was capped off with a win over the Giants on Sunday, they’re genuine top four contenders at $2.10 with Palmerbet.

Ladder position for @brisbanelions after round 16…

2010 1️⃣3️⃣
2011 1️⃣5️⃣
2012 1️⃣3️⃣
2013 1️⃣3️⃣
2014 1️⃣7️⃣
2015 1️⃣8️⃣
2016 1️⃣7️⃣
2017 1️⃣8️⃣
2018 1️⃣6️⃣
2019 4️⃣

🦁 🚀 #AFLGiantsLions

— Joshua Kay (@js_kay) July 7, 2019

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The post AFL – Pies slide in flag market appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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Round 17 of the AFL season kicks off with a clash between last year’s grand finalists, before two further intriguing matchups between top eight sides. It’s all to play for. 

West Coast v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 12th July, 20:10 (AEST)
West Coast Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 53: West Coast 28 v Collingwood 24 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 3, 2019: Collingwood 11.10 (76) lost to West Coast 15.8 (98).

Final Thoughts: Have the Pies reached at least a mini crisis point? Having scraped through some unconvincing wins in the past two months, they’ve now lost consecutive games to clubs outside the top eight. And all of a sudden, they’ve gone from $3.75 flag hopes to $7. And to make matters worse, there’s little respite for Nathan Buckley’s side in the next month. In facing West Coast at Optus Stadium on Friday night, they play a side chock full of confidence looking to inflict their fifth straight win over the black and white. Then, the next fortnight sees them up against GWS, then Richmond. Whatever the result in Perth, the Pies are desperate to send a signal to their fans that 2019 isn’t fizzling out. 

Tip: Line: Collingwood +17.5 @ $1.93

Sydney v Carlton @ SCG Saturday 13th July, 13:45 (AEST)
Sydney Carlton
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 228: Sydney 94 v Carlton 128 (6 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 3, 2019: Carlton 10.14 (74) lost to Sydney 14.9 (93).

Final Thoughts: The Swans’ season is hanging by a thread after a luckless loss to Essendon last weekend. While their youngsters again shone, an inability to take chances in front of goal and some poor umpiring cost them a chance to go 7-8. Now, at 6-9, there’s very little margin for error for the rest of the season, and that starts on Saturday at the SCG. Carlton have rejuvenated themselves under David Teague, but will find it tough against a side that beat them at home earlier this season. Further, the Blues haven’t won at the SCG since 2011. The Swans are still without Callum Sinclair, however, and the patch job of Reid and Aliir may allow Kreuzer to have a field day in the ruck, and dictate things for the Carlton midfield.

Tip: Total score: +158.5 @ $1.90

Hawthorn v Fremantle @ UTAS Stadium Saturday 13th July, 14:10 (AEST)
Hawthorn Fremantle
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 35: Hawthorn 27 v Fremantle 8.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 19, 2018: Fremantle 7.11 (53) lost to Hawthorn 17.10 (112).

Final Thoughts: The Hawks kept their slim finals hopes alive last week with a close win over Collingwood, but they’ll need an almost faultless season to remain in the hunt. Quite incredibly, Alastair Clarkson’s side is yet to win back-to-back games at any stage in 2019. However they’ll take confidence in the fact they’ve beaten the Dockers on each of the last five occasions. They’ll likely take even further confidence in the fact that Fremantle, all of a sudden, look shot this season. A 91-point thrashing in Derby 50 last week – their ninth consecutive loss to the Eagles – has seen them blow out from $2.60 to $8.05 chances to make the top eight with Palmerbet.

Tip: Winning Margin: Fremantle by 1-39pts @ $3.30

Essendon v North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium Saturday 13th July, 16:35 (AEST)
Essendon North Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 157: Essendon 99 v North Melbourne 57 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 5, 2019: North Melbourne 7.16 (58) lost to Essendon 17.14 (116).

Final Thoughts: With four wins in their last five, the Bombers have hit form – and you can tell. Signs of the free-flowing football has returned, and all of a sudden they are showing the hallmarks of a finals side. Their purple patch has seen them shorten from $3 chances to make the eight, now into $1.85 with Palmerbet. Similarly, North Melbourne have won four in five and like the Dons, are giving supporters reasons to smile. And when you consider where the Roos were in the wake of Brad Scott’s sacking, the North faithful are in fact beaming. Interim coach Rhyce Shaw has instilled a certain hardness and fluidity. A win here (depending on percentage) could even see them overtake Essendon. All to play for.

Tip: Head-to-head: North Melbourne @ $2.05

Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide @ Metricon Stadium Saturday 13th July, 19:25 (AEST)
Gold Coast Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 12: Gold Coast 0 v Adelaide 12.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 5, 2019: Adelaide 18.11 (119) defeated Gold Coast 6.10 (46).

Final Thoughts: After their 11th straight loss against Richmond last weekend, the Suns are now $1.15 to finish with the least wins in 2019 with Palmerbet. In conceding 100 points in the first half, Stuart Dew’s side were unravelled by the Tigers, and things could get ugly should they fail to win another game in 2019. To make matters worse, Gold Coast have never won against Adelaide in 12 opportunities – the only team they haven’t beaten in their history. But the Crows are far from impressing at the moment, either. A poor loss in the showdown last weekend has asked questions of their 2019 credentials. A confidence-boosting win, however, is very much expected here.

Tip: To get 30+ disposals: Rory Laird (Adelaide) @ $2.37

Geelong v St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium Saturday 13th July, 19:25 (AEST)
Geelong St Kilda
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 214: Geelong 129 v St Kilda 84 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2018: Geelong 15.13 (103) defeated St Kilda 7.14 (56).

Final Thoughts: Despite a loss last week to the Dogs, Geelong remains a game clear on top of the AFL ladder. But a lacklustre final term was probably cause for concern for Chris Scott, who will welcome a return home to GMHBA Stadium this weekend. In truth, it’s difficult to see the Saints getting near the ladder leaders. Coach Alan Richardson remains on thin ice to maintain his position beyond this season, having lead his side to just one win in the last five. Further, it’s been 20 years since the Saints pulled off a win down the highway, having lost the last eight in a row. Their likely hope (and tip below) is preventing a blowout.

Tip: Line: St Kilda +45.5 @ $1.87

Richmond v Greater Western Sydney @ MCG Sunday 14th July, 13:10 (AEST)
Richmond GWS
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 11: Richmond 7 v GWS 4.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 3, 2019: GWS 19.11 (125) defeated Richmond 10.16 (76).

Final Thoughts: Every time the Giants threaten to blow the season open, they go and lose a game they shouldn’t have. Last week, at home to the Lions, Leon Cameron’s side were poor, and allowed the young Lions to dictate proceedings despite being on home turf. The loss further highlighted questions of whether they can be counted as a true premiership hopeful. The Tigers, on the other hand, waltzed in over 100 points by half time against the Suns and had a bruise-free win. With key players back in the last fortnight, they could begin to time their run for another tilt at premiership success with a win on Sunday. They’re yet to beat a side ahead of them in 2019. Could they snap that at the ‘G?

Tip: Margin: Richmond by 1-24pts @ $3.20

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium Sunday 14th July, 15:20 (AEST)
Western Bulldogs Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 165: Western Bulldogs 76 v Melbourne 88 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 17, 2018: Melbourne 18.11 (119) defeated Western Bulldogs 10.9 (69).

Final Thoughts: The Dogs caused one of the upsets of the season last weekend by knocking off the ladder-leading Cats at Marvel. With two big wins in a row, they’re now an outside chance to make the finals in 2019. They couldn’t, could they? Melbourne were far less convincing in overcoming the Blues, but avoided further embarrassment with a last-gasp win. Their last quarter fizzle was in stark contrast with the Dogs’ dare and dash. In fact, the Dees have won just five of 15 last quarters in season 2019. And for that, amongst a host of other reasons, it’s difficult to see a Dees side playing for mere pride getting up in this one.

Tip: Total score: Over 167.5 @ $1.90

Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval Sunday 14th July, 16:40 (AEST)
Port Adelaide Brisbane
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 36: Port Adelaide 18 v Brisbane 16 (2 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 3, 2019: Brisbane 16.11 (107) defeated Port Adelaide 13.12 (90).

Final Thoughts: The match of the round is saved for last, with a Sunday evening cracker in the City of Churches. Both sides are coming off the back of perhaps their best respective wins of the season – Port Adelaide a season-defining effort in the Showdown, and the Lions a win over the fancied Giants in Sydney. Chris Fagan’s side haven’t beaten the Power in Adelaide since 2012, but with the dangling carrot of four points to maintain their shock top-four position, they’ll be rapid in their hunt for back-to-back wins. At 8-7, Ken Hinkley equally needs the win to maintain their quest for September action.

Tip: Margin: Brisbane by 1-39pts @ $2.88

The post AFL Tips & Preview – Round 17 appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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Round 16 of the AFL season saw three top-four sides beaten in a hugely entertaining weekend of footy that threw the race for finals wide open.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Underdogs deliver…yet again

Last weekend, in round 15, four considerable upsets took place. And this weekend, we saw another three. The Western Bulldogs ($3.35 pre-game with Palmerbet), Brisbane ($3.07) and Hawthorn ($2.78) all saluted to keep their finals’ hopes alive. What made the results all the more amazing was they were all against top-four sides (at the time) in Geelong, Collingwood and GWS. The Dogs were particularly impressive in their win, and overrun the ladder-leading Cats (who had won nine of their last 10) in one of the performances of the AFL season. Two weeks ago the Dogs’ AFL season appeared shot, but upset wins over Port Adelaide away, and now Geelong on the weekend has seen them back in with a top eight chance (click here for updated futures markets).

Bulldogs Fight & Bulldogs Roar #AFLDogsCats pic.twitter.com/O3NUYf3gUf

— Michael Willson (@MichaelCWillson) July 6, 2019

Pies slip further

While the Cats went down unexpectedly, the small blip has done little to dent their premiership chances. The same can’t be said, however, for Collingwood. In losing to Hawthorn on Friday, there is now serious questions being asked of Nathan Buckley’s side. The Pies have lost back-to-back games to sides outside the top eight, and appear structurally wayward. And with games against West Coast, GWS and Richmond to come, things will need to change, and fast. Palmerbet’s early market has them as $2.85 outsiders for Friday night’s clash against the Eagles in Perth.

Leigh Matthews on 3AW prematch yesterday. “Collingwood looked passive” at the first bounce. Remarkably Steele Sidebottom agreed. Matthew Lloyd: “I would love seven days with Mason Cox. He has a massive technical issue. Imagine what McGovern will do to him.”

— Jon Ralph (@RalphyHeraldSun) July 7, 2019

Lions roar

When do we consider Chris Fagan’s Brisbane side a genuine AFL premiership chance? Now? In knocking over the Giants away from home, the Lions again showed they’re not content with a mere finals spot in season 2019. No, they want top-four and the premiership. Brisbane’s first success at the venue coincided with the home side’s first loss there this season. The 20-point win takes them to fourth, and shortened them in almost all futures markets (click here to see updated prices).

Cam Rayner pounces on Heath Shaw's mistake! #AFLGiantsLions pic.twitter.com/ry54GXdLD2

— AFL (@AFL) July 7, 2019

Brisbane has played with intensity associated with playing in September. This is Brisbane's biggest win under Chris Fagan. The Lions have been simply outstanding. #AFLGiantsLions

— Adam White (@White_Adam) July 7, 2019

Tigers quietly go about business

And finally, after welcoming some senior players back and registering two comfortable wins, things have settled back at Tigerland. Their 56-point opening terms against the Suns was the highest of any side this AFL season. One of the more interesting tweets to come out of the weekend was the one below. Is this 2017 all over for the Tiges?

After 16 rounds in 2017, @Richmond_FC were
6th on the ladder, 9 wins, 6 losses, 105.3%
After 16 rounds in 2019,
6th on the ladder, 9 wins, 6 losses, 103.0%#gotiges

— George Megalogenis (@GMegalogenis) July 6, 2019

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The post AFL – Round 16 in Review appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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Round 16 of the AFL season features a host of rivalry clashes, including the Derby and Showdown under lights on Saturday evening.

Hawthorn v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 5th July, 19:50 (AEST)
Hawthorn Collingwood
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 164: Hawthorn 67 v Collingwood 97.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 1, 2018: Hawthorn 15.11 (101) defeated Collingwood 9.13 (67).

Final Thoughts: Two out-of-form sides kick off round 16, in an intriguing Friday night clash. The second-placed Pies have had a fortnight to forget, bookended by the suspension of Jaidyn Stephenson and their worst performance of the season – a 44-point loss to North Melbourne. The Pies were smashed around the ball by a harder, more ferocious Roos outfit, something that incensed coach Nathan Buckley. If anything, one would expect that aspect of their game to return in this clash. The Hawks are also down in the dumps, having lost four on the trot. They were gallant, and came of-so-close last week against the Eagles, but fell just short. On a more positive note, the Hawks have an incredible recent record against the Pies, winning 11 of the past 12 encounters.

Tip: Line: Collingwood -18.5 @ $2.00

Essendon v Sydney @ MCG Saturday 6th July, 13:45 (AEST)
Essendon Sydney
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 221: Essendon 131 v Sydney 89 (1 draw).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 8, 2019: Sydney 11.11 (77) defeated Essendon 10.12 (72).

Final Thoughts: The Swans are on a roll, having won five of their last seven games. A win here, and against 17th-placed Carlton next week on home soil would take them, quite incredibly, to 8-8 (despite starting the season 1-6) and well in the finals hunt. But that will be far from John Longmire’s thinking who needs to first devise a plan against the dangerous Bombers who were superb in their upset win over GWS last week. At 7-7, a win could take the Dons into the top eight for the first time since round five. You’ll remember when these teams played earlier in the year, a bizarre finish took place as Swans skipper Dane Rampe tried to climb the goalpost after the siren. Essendon felt hard done by there, and have a shot at revenge on Saturday afternoon.

Tip: Head to head: Sydney @ $2.40

Gold Coast v Richmond @ Metricon Stadium Saturday 6th July, 14:10 (AEST)
Gold Coast Richmond
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 8: Gold Coast 3 v Richmond 5.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 21, 2018: Gold Coast 7.9 (51) lost to Richmond 19.11 (125).

Final Thoughts: The Suns’ losing streak has extended to 10 and they are now $1.20 favourites in Palmerbet’s ‘least wins 2019’ market. A season that began with some promise has now turned exceedingly difficult for young coach Stuart Dew. But in their first game back at Metricon in a month, can they put in a competitive showing? Richmond are only just inside the eight, but have welcomed back some stars in recent weeks. As such, it’s tough to see the Tigers going down here. With games against GWS, Port Adelaide and Collingwood to come, nothing short of a win is good enough for Damian Hardwick.

Tip: Winning Margin: Richmond by 1-39pts @ $2.10

Adelaide to Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval Saturday 6th July, 16:35 (AEST)
Adelaide Port Adelaide
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 46: Adelaide 24 v Port Adelaide 22.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 8, 2019: Port Adelaide 9.14 (68) lost to Adelaide 13.10 (88).

Final Thoughts: Showdown 47 is set to be a cracker, with both sides looking to solidify their spots in the top eight. Port are still reeling from last weekend’s loss to the Dogs – a game they would have pencilled in four points. And with games against Brisbane, Richmond and Greater Western Sydney to come in the next three weeks, a win for Ken Hinkley’s side is vital. To do so, however, they’ll need to reverse recent history. The Crows have won seven of the last eight Showdowns and the last time they lost to a side outside the top eight was way back in round four.

Tip: Line: Adelaide -7.5 @ $1.90

Western Bulldogs v Geelong@ Marvel Stadium Saturday 6th July, 19:25 (AEST)
Western Bulldogs Geelong
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 160: Western Bulldogs 56 v Geelong 102 (2 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 9, 2019: Geelong 21.7 (133) defeated Western Bulldogs 13.11 (89).

Final Thoughts: A stirring win over the Power in the wet has kept the Dogs’ faint finals hopes alive. But only just. Luke Beveridge’s side are still $6.50 outsiders to finish in the top eight with Palmerbet, but another upset – this week against ladder leaders Geelong – would see them shorten yet again. Is it do or die yet? Well, a loss would see them to 6-9 – an exceedingly difficult spot to make the finals from. Whether the Dogs have the depth across the park to match the experienced Cats is perhaps the more important question for this game. Geelong has won four of their last five against the Dogs, and another win here would see them maintain their two-game buffer at the top.

Tip: To get 25+ disposals: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong) @ $3.60

Fremantle v West Coast @ Optus Stadium Saturday 6th July, 20:10 (AEST)
Fremantle West Coast
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C

History: Played 49: Fremantle 20 v West Coast 29.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2019: West Coast 10.9 (69) defeated Fremantle 7.14 (56).

Final Thoughts: It’s Derby time, edition 50. And it’s set to be a beauty. Both sides were involved in thrillers last week – the Eagles getting up against the Hawks at the MCG and the Dockers losing out to (then) bottom-placed Carlton. The loss has had serious repercussions for their finals aspirations, given they would have pencilled it in for four points. Ross Lyon’s side is now in a fight with four other clubs for eighth. And after losses to the Blues and, before that Melbourne, the Dockers are now desperate to return to the winners’ circle. These sides met earlier in the year, where the Eagles own by 13 points. Incredibly, they’ve actually won the last eight derbies in a row.

Tip: Line: Fremantle +16.5 @ $1.95

Carlton v Melbourne @ MCG Sunday 7th July, 13:10 (AEST)
Carlton Melbourne
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 212: Carlton 118 v Melbourne 92 (2 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 9, 2018: Carlton 7.8 (50) lost to Melbourne 25.9 (159).

Final Thoughts: The last time these sides met, in round nine last year, the Blues were thrashed by a whopping 109 points. But quite incredibly, just over a year later, the two clubs are separated by just four points on the ladder. Carlton’s dream start under David Teague has put a pep in their step, and culminated in a stirring win over Freo last week – comfortably their best performance of the season. Despite their recent momentum, the Dees start as fairly solid $1.43 favourites with Palmerbet. Gallant in their loss against Brisbane last week, Melbourne’s return to a tighter brand of footy will mean they’ll fancy themselves for four points here.

Tip: Margin: Melbourne by 1-39pts @ $2.00

North Melbourne v St Kilda @ Blundstone Arena Sunday 7th July, 15:20 (AEST)
North Melbourne St Kilda
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 159: North Melbourne 79 v St Kilda 78 (2 draws).

Last Meeting: AFL Round 23, 2018: St Kilda 14.10 (94) lost to North Melbourne 17.15 (117).

Final Thoughts: North Melbourne’s recovery under interim coach Rhyce Shaw has been nothing short of incredible. They followed up a strong victory over Richmond a few weeks ago with a 44-point dismantling of Collingwood on Saturday night which – again, incredibly – has brought them into the finals hunt. They’re now an outside $6.50 to finish in the eight. The Saints, also at 6-8, are $12 owing to a tougher draw to come and a poor percentage. Either way, this result on Sunday afternoon is big. Despite their close proximity on the ladder, North start as strong favourites in this one and should walk away with four points.

Tip: Line: North Melbourne -24.5 @ $1.93

Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane Lions @ Giants Stadium Sunday 7th July, 16:40 (AEST)
GWS Brisbane
Pos Player Pos Player
B
(Teams to come) B
HB HB
C C
HF HF
F F
FOL FOL
I/C I/C


History:
Played 8: GWS 6 v Brisbane 2.

Last Meeting: AFL Round 14, 2018: Brisbane 12.10 (82) lost to GWS 16.13 (109).

Final Thoughts: The Giants let a huge chance (and with it, an opportunity to further solidify their top four hopes) go last week with a last-gasp loss to Essendon. But they pick themselves up for another clash, this time against an equally exciting Brisbane Lions outfit. Leon Cameron’s side has a very impressive record over the Lions. With six wins and two losses, their win percentage of 75% is better than against any other AFL side. Chris Fagan’s young side keep on clocking up the wins but this week represents one of their toughest tasks for the year. Added to the fact that the Giants are 4-0 on the back of losses in 2019, they’ll certainly have their work cut out.

Tip: To get 30+ disposals: Stephen Coniglio @ $1.91

The post AFL Tips & Preview – Round 16 appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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With a top seven seemingly locked in, five clubs appear to be battling it out for the last AFL finals spot in 2019. We assess each club’s chances, and their run home.

Five doesn’t go into one. It’s a square (or pentagonal) peg-in-a-round-hole situation in the AFL at present. Five clubs – Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, North Melbourne and Sydney – are vying for the last spot in the 2019 AFL finals series. Sure, one of the current top seven could slip down, or one of 13th or 14th make a miraculous rise, but Palmerbet’s current prices suggest not. The top seven are all $1.14 or better to remain in the top eight, while 13th or below are all $12 or worse. As such, it’s likely a five-way race for eighth. Below, we assess each club’s chance of grabbing the chance at September action.

Essendon (28pts,$2.00 to make the top eight)

The heaviest-fancied (only just) of these five is the Dons, who shortened from $2.50 into $2 after a stunning win over the Giants in round 14. The Dons could hardly have had a better weekend, not only knocking off an AFL premiership hopeful, but seeing close rivals Port Adelaide and Fremantle both lose games they were fancied to win. John Worsfold’s side are also blessed with a favourable run home. In their last eight games, they play against just one top-four side (Collingwood in round 23).

Incredibly, Essendon haven’t a final since 2004. It’s high time they do so given the historical success of the club. Could 2019 be that year?

"There's enormous pressure on him and the team now to achieve this year and to make the finals this year."

Essendon great Tim Watson feels the pressure is mounting on coach John Worsfold | https://t.co/QXN63l1MY2 | #AFL pic.twitter.com/mmfbYGYjdR

— SEN 1116 (@1116sen) June 23, 2019

Port Adelaide (28pts, $2.25)

The Power blew a chance to remain in the eight with an upset loss to the Dogs on Saturday night. Despite starting as $1.32 favourites with Palmerbet, Ken Hinkley’s side couldn’t overcome a determine Dogs outfit in the wet. The loss is made worse by the fact that the Power have a fairly difficult month ahead. Starting with Adelaide in the Showdown this weekend (which they start as $2.23 outsiders), Port then face three top-eight sides in a row in Brisbane, Richmond and GWS. It goes without saying that the next month will likely define their season.

It’s not the loss that I’m shocked by, but it’s the worst @PAFC performance of the year that has me stunned. The Jekyll and Hyde season continues….

Where to from here Port fans? #AFLPowerDogs

— PowerFromPort (@PowerFromPort) June 29, 2019

Fremantle (28pts, $2.68)

Similarly to the Power, Freo also blew a chance to maintain breathing space with fellow finals hopefuls after a last-gasp loss to (then) bottom-placed Carlton. Going in as strong $1.29 favourites, the Dockers were poor in a loss that simply shouldn’t have happened. After kicking the first five goals of the game, they switched off and allowed the beleaguered Blues back into the game. Thankfully for Ross Lyon, his side face just two top-eight sides in their remaining eight games of AFL season 2019. But they also play three sides mentioned in this piece (Sydney, Essendon, Port Adelaide) which will likely determine their chances.

Courageous win by the Blues…great scenes after the game. How much is that going to hurt Freo’s finals chances? Going to be a big buildup to derby 50 this week.

— Adam Papalia (@adampaps) June 30, 2019

Sydney (24pts, $4.50)

Five wins in their last seven has seen the Swans, incredibly, back in the AFL finals frame. But only just. As long as $16 chances back in round seven (after which they sat 1-6), strong recent form by the young Swans has revived their season. A favourable recent draw has also helped. After beating the Suns on the weekend, John Longmire’s side face Essendon, Carlton and Fremantle in the coming weeks. One would think two wins within those three games is a minimum for the Bloods.

Nick Blakey soars 🙌#AFLSwansHawks pic.twitter.com/E4NMNScCij

— AFL (@AFL) June 21, 2019

North Melbourne (24pts, $6.50)

The biggest outsider of the bunch, North Melbourne has incredibly re-entered the AFL finals frame with three wins in their last four games. And they’ve done it under interim coach Rhyce Shaw who is suddenly being mentioned as a candidate for the full-time role. After round nine the Roos were $18 outsiders to make the eight but have shortened into $6.50 with impressive wins over Richmond and Collingwood. Their run home is a mixed bag, featuring winnable games against St Kilda, Melbourne and Hawthorn, but tough matchups against West Coast, Geelong and Brisbane.

What a win. Pressure fantastic from the get go! I think the players have voted for Rhyce Shaw! #AFLPiesNorth #North150

— Ross Payne (@RossPayneAU) June 29, 2019

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The post AFL – The five-way battle for eighth appeared first on Palmerbet Blog.

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