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Since the start of the bear market, we have seen decreases of around 80-90% from the all-time highs, but that doesn’t apply to the Binance coin as it is again on its all-time high level against the price of Bitcoin making it the most resilient cryptocurrency in the bear market.
Since the price is in an upward trajectory again and is on the level of the all-time high against the price of Bitcoin, in this analysis we are going to further examine where the price is heading next.
Binance Coin Price Analysis BNB/USD
Looking at the daily chart of Binance coin against the US dollar we can see why is the price of Binance coin against the price of Bitcoin at its all-time high level again. The price of Bitcoin against the US dollar has been depreciating from 24th of December when the Minor WXYXZ correction started developing after the impulsive move that started on 15th of December last year, while the price of Binance coin against the US dollar has been increasing in that period.
From 7th of December when the interaction with the triangle’s support line has been made the price of Binance coin has been in an uptrend and has increased by 140.35% coming from $4.089 where the interaction with the triangle’s support was made, measured to the current interaction with the resistance found on the intersection between the triangle’s resistance line at around and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at around $10.
Considering the context – the price has increased exponentially until January when it reached $22.7174 at its all-time high and has been in correction all throughout 2018 coming to $4 at its lowest which was a decrease like in the case of other cryptos of around 80%, but is now 57% from its all-time high unlike most cryptos, we could possibly be seeing the start of a breakout to the upside.
The 2018 correction was the three-wave WXY correction of the Intermediate count which is why if the correction ended on the Y wave the increase we have seen from 7th of December could be the start of another impulsive move as a continuation of the prior uptrend.
The interaction with the triangle’s resistance line hasn’t immediately rejected the price instead we are seeing today a strong green candle indicating that the buyer’s momentum is still very much present. If the price continues its upward trajectory and breaks out from the triangle’s resistance line the possibility of this upswing of 7th of December being an impulsive move will increase, but if the price gets rejected and start moving again to the downside we could either see that this increase was the continuation of the WXY correction, in which case it would be labeled as the second wave X, or a pullback for the establishment of strong support before another attempt for a breakout.
Zooming into the 4-hour chart we can see that the price action created an ascending wedge at first which is a corrective structure and considering that the price was in the downward trajectory prior to its formation a breakout to the downside have looked more probable. Instead, the price broke out from the upside and that with strong momentum as the last increase was about 58% in one go coming from $6.15 to at around $10. This increase has been labeled as the 3rd wave out of the potential 5 wave impulse.
Considering that I have counted three waves and they wave showed correctional movement the possibility of it being over is equally high as the possibility of the breakout to the upside, as it could have very much been the continuation of the Intermediate WXY correction, so in order to validate either scenario we are going to see where this current retracement takes the price.
If the price is now headed down for another correction line an ABC Zigzag or another sideways correction and doesn’t enter the territory of the previously broken ascending wedge or doesn’t go below 0.236 Fibonacci level at around $7.4538 but finds support there, then the breakout scenario will become more likely. But if the price continues moving lower and goes below the 0.236 Fibonacci level then the possibility of the scenario in which this was the second wave X would become higher.
If the second scenario is in play that would mean that what we are currently seeing is the start of the development of the Z wave as the second prolongation of the WXYXZ correction which would most likely result in the price going for another lower low compared to the one on 7th of December and another interaction with the triangle’s support line which could even be to the beginning of the exponential increase we have seen in 2017 which would be around $2.738.
The price of Binance coin has been in an upward trajectory for over a month and has managed to recover more than double in the evaluation, but has now come to the first significant resistance point to the upside which is why we are now going to see the price starting to pull back.
With the price currently showing signs of weakness as its struggling to maintain the lower high (as indicated by the wick from the upside on the current 4-hour candle), we can say that the down move has most likely already started.
From the depth of the pullback, we are going to see which scenario gets validated but my primary count is bullish as I have to follow the Principle but my intuition is telling me that this was the second wave X especially considering the market context so we are soon going to get a confirmation on either projection.
After dismissing its claims last year, a federal court has finally granted victory to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in its case against blockchain assets exchange Blockvest.
Judge Gonzalo P. Curiel of the U.S. Court for the Southern District of California placed a preliminary injunction against Blockvest LLC and its founder, Reginald Buddy Ringgold (otherwise known as Rasool Abdul Rahim El) based on past securities violations and newly developed evidence which supports the conclusion that “there is a reasonable likelihood of future violations.”
As described in the ruling, Blockvest is a registered Wyoming company “set up to exchange cryptocurrencies but has never become operational.”
SEC Scores a Major Victory
The Judge ruled that after reviewing evidence and submitted briefings, it concludes that the defendant may have violated federal securities laws by promoting unregistered securities. The Court has placed an injunction against the startup and its founder to prevent further violations.
On the injunction, the judge noted that the Court found “reconsideration is warranted based upon a prima facie showing of Defendants’ past securities violation and newly developed evidence which supports the conclusion that there is a reasonable likelihood of future violations.”
By newly developed evidence, Curiel was referring to the defendant’s counsel motion to withdraw from representing him and his firm based on the defendant’s instruction for the law firm to “file certain documents that counsel could not certify.” Going on to add that, when the counsel refused to file those documents, “Defendants attempted to file such documents with the Court without counsel’s permission or signature, and the documents were rejected by the Court Clerk.”
Beyond Ringgold’s request for his counsel to carry out actions that were unethical, the law firm, Corrigan & Morris LLP, complained about the defendant’s failure to pay for work done. Late payment and accusatory remarks traced to defendants have led to a “complete breakdown in the attorney-client relationship,” the firm explained in its motion to withdraw.
The SEC had suspended Blockvest’s Initial Coin Offering (ICO) in October through an emergency court order, over whether Blockvest’s tokens, BLV tokens, were registered under U.S. securities law. The court had tossed the case out, stating that the SEC had failed to demonstrate that the BLV tokens were in fact securities based on Howey Test.
“At this stage, without full discovery and disputed issues of material facts, the Court cannot make a determination whether the BLV token offered to the 32 test investors was a ‘security,” the documents read.
Thus, Plaintiff [the SEC] has not demonstrated that the BLV tokens purchased by the 32 test investors were ‘securities’ as defined under the securities laws.
The Court had subsequently denied the regulator’s request for an injunction against the blockchain startup, among other demands.
SEC’s Battle with ICO Operators
ICO operators have not had it easy with the SEC. Last November, the financial watchdog had imposed civil penalties against two operators over unregistered securities.
The agency had settled with CarrierEQ Inc.(Airfox) and Paragon Coin Inc. The arrangement involved the operators to return the funds raised to investors, file periodic reports with the Commission and pay a $250,000 as penalties.
The imposition of the penalties implies both firm’s tokens were deemed to have been securities and are, therefore, required to be registered with the Commission under U.S. federal laws.
Channel factories are an intermediate layer between Bitcoin’s blockchain and the Lightning Network (LN) proposed by Conrad Burchert, Christian Decker, and Roger Wattenhofer in a paper in 2017. Initially called ‘Scalable Funding of Bitcoin Micropayment Channel Networks,’ the concept has become commonly known as ‘channel factories.’
Channel factories are designed to reduce the number of on-chain transactions required for opening and closing LN channels. You can think of them as channel super-highways that can exist between many users without increasing the number of on-chain transactions necessary to open and close channels.
Users can open and close virtually unlimited numbers of channels, having the potential to drastically reduce the on-chain burden of the LN if it scales to a popular global payments network of millions of users.
Background on LN Channels
Opening an LN channel between two participants requires a transaction to fund the channel and open it with commitments of their BTC balances to the Bitcoin blockchain. Once the channel is open and funded, users can exchange BTC back and forth as many times as they wish within the confines of the balance in the channel that is transferred back and forth between them.
The magic is securely updating the channel state balance without publishing on-chain transactions.
Closing the channel also requires an on-chain transaction, where the channel balance is published on the Bitcoin blockchain. However, there are two primary limitations of the bidirectional channel setup.
The requirement for on-chain open/close transactions does not scale well with LN adoption because of the limitations in Bitcoin’s on-chain capacity.
Funds (BTC) are locked into the channel.
First, as the number of users of Bitcoin’s LN increases, the amount of on-chain transactions will also increase drastically — especially if each user is opening multiple channels. Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction capacity can easily handle the LN open/close transactions now, but if it is to reach its desired level of adoption the problem needs to be addressed.
For example, if 1,000 active LN users are seeking to open 5 channels each, then that creates 10,000 on-chain transactions. The more users, the more problematic the strain on Bitcoin becomes.
Second, the fixed amount of BTC in an LN channel is inconvenient, especially when the need to rebalance channels arises or refilling channels is required. Low channel balances are suitable for two interacting parties but are not ideal for peak performance of the LN which would require routing nodes and payments hopping between nodes.
The channel factory paper highlights these two problems and strives to provide a scalable solution where users can create an arbitrary number of channels as part of a group — drastically reducing the costs of blockchain transactions. According to the paper:
“For a group of 20 users with 100 intra-group channels, the cost of the blockchain transactions is reduced by 90% compared to 100 regular micropayment channels opened on the blockchain. This can be increased further to 96% if Bitcoin introduces Schnorr signatures with signature aggregation.”
The part about Schnorr signatures is important as the inclusion of Schnorr Signatures into the Bitcoin protocol is on the horizon and offers a suite of enhanced efficiency and privacy features for the network. Combined with channel factories, Schnorr signatures enable much more compact channel factory transactions when they are published on-chain.
Channel factories are empirically multi-party micropayment channels that consist of groups of participants creating one-to-one channels off-chain. The same method for broadcasting the close of an LN channel can be optimized to open another channel concurrently. In effect, channel factories leverage this capacity for creating and terminating off-chain channels without the need for broadcasting to the Bitcoin blockchain. According to the paper:
“Funds are committed to a group of other users instead of a single partner and can be moved between channels with just a few messages inside this collaborating group, which reduces the risk, as an unprofitable connection can be quickly dissolved to form a better connection with another partner.”
Channel factories lock in multi-party channel funds using a ‘hook transaction,’ which opens shared ownership of the deposited funds between the parties. The clever component that enables the funding of many multi-party channels is called the ‘allocation,’ where one or many sequential transactions can retrieve the locked funds of the multi-party channel as an input and fund multiple channels with their outputs. According to the paper:
“The allocation effectively replaces the funding transactions of a number of two-party channels.”
The hook enables a user to withdraw their funds from a channel if the other parties become non-cooperative. Opening secondary payment channels within a channel factory are essentially instantaneous as the channel factory itself has a sufficient amount of confirmations — users are creating channels within a channel.
Additionally, channel factories remove the risk among the participating parties using timelocks and an invalidation tree where only one path of the tree is broadcastable following the expiration of the timelocks. No single party or colluding parties can arbitrarily spend the channel factory funds due to restrictions derived from multi-sig.
Settlement consists of the parties in the channel factory cooperatively deciding to close the channel, and only the hook and settlement transaction are published on the blockchain. However, settlement of secondary payment channels falls into three primary options:
Commit final state of the secondary channel to the blockchain.
Update balances within the broader channel factory.
Open a n
The aggregate coordination required for larger channel factories rises, but they still retain the ability to function with only two on-chain transactions despite arbitrary group sizes. The implications of large channel factories are compelling for the organic growth of the LN.
Advantages, Risks, and Future Development
Channel factories are convincing improvements for the LN when considering the limitations in moving funds between channels for rebalancing. Rebalancing problems arise when one party of a bidirectional channel has a lopsided sum of the channel balance, and the other party cannot send them BTC because their end of the channel is too low.
“A new allocation is set up, which replaces every channel with a balanced new one while keeping the total stake of each party the same,” details the paper.
Channel factories can subsequently enable funds to be moved between channels, create new channels, or remove old channels — all without broadcasting to the blockchain.
Channel factories also have unique benefits in complex systems. In Bitcoin’s LN, channel factories have the potential to increase the depth of the connections between large groups of nodes. In effect, this would accelerate the speed of payment hops between nodes that people do not have direct channels open with.
With channel factories, the overlap between large channel factories would enable shorter paths between participants of separate groups, making the LN more distributed while simultaneously strengthening its connections.
Conversely, large channel factories have a notable deficiency. The number of parties capable of closing the channel factory rises in a higher order system and remove the ability to move funds between secondary channels following the broadcast of the hook and settlement transaction to the blockchain.
Such scenarios are not directly malicious — as no user funds are lost or stolen — but can be wielded by base users to increase the mining fees paid for the extra blockchain space that the channel factory requires — causing inconvenience for secondary payment channel users in the process. Cooperative users can decide on settlement solutions outside of publishing the path to the invalidation tree, however.
Overall, channel factories are a convincing proposition for the expansion and scalability of Bitcoin’s LN. The LN’s adoption is rapidly swelling, and channel factories are a practical tool for supplementing the network’s scalability via better on-chain efficiency and rebalancing of secondary payment channels for a more liquid payment ecosystem.
Blockchain is still a niche market. One of the biggest problems for blockchain adoption is how regular people will interact with blockchains. WAX has been an innovator in connecting gamers who want to trade unique digital items, and now their WAX Block Explorer takes market openness to a whole new level.
WAX or Worldwide Asset eXchange, was created by the same team that developed OPSkins. The idea is simple; let gamers who have valuable digital assets trade them in a safe, transparent marketplace. With more than 400 million gamers around the world, there is a massive potential market for platforms that facilitate trade of collectibles & other items within the gaming community.
The next step for WAX is the introduction of a slick interface, called the WAX Explorer, that includes a a visual representation and 3d viewing of all items with descriptions and also details for all transactions taking place on the WAX Blockchain.
The WAX Explorer Makes Blockchain Easy
There are some pretty slick interfaces for crypto wallets and exchanges. If you want to look at what is actually happening on a blockchain, there aren’t many great interfaces for you to use. A lot of technical knowledge is needed, and they all approach tokens as a commodity.
Unique tokens or Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) like the ETH-721, which is why CryptoKitties can exist, aren’t like a bitcoin or regular token. NFTs have distinct properties that are hard to view when using a standard blockchain explorer, but the WAX Explorer is changing that.
Items that are traded on WAX are highly visual and unique, and that the visual component of them is often one of the main reasons they are coveted and cause extremely varying degrees of value. This makes it important for items trading on the wax blockchain to have a visual representation rather than just a string of numbers and letters common on other block explorers
“Designing the WAX Explorer in the same way that block explorers were designed for commodity-style token trading would be like Amazon having just SKU numbers and weight information for its products instead of photos and videos showing shoppers what the product looks like.”
Great Tools to Grow Blockchain Use
In addition to giving gamers a way to easily see any relevant data about the condition of certain NFT items, the WAX Explorer generates a 360-degree image of WAX Stickers and VGO Items.
WAX 3D Item Viewer Service | VGO Skin: Anubis - YouTube
WAX isn’t shy about expressing its desire to see blockchain catch on. The company said that,
“If the blockchain community’s goals is mass adoption of blockchain technology among general consumers, then block explorers – and blockchain-based products overall – shouldn’t be designed so that only blockchain-savvy people can easily use and understand,”
in a blog post that describes all the features of the new WAX Explorer.
There is little doubt that new technologies like blockchain will create both an ‘intimidation factor’ in the general population, which can make adoption a slow process. Game development studios are also opposed to using any kind of money, or monetary instruments, within their games.
The Shift Away From Established Models
One of the reasons why gaming companies might not like items that can be shared across platforms is that it undermines their control over a gaming environment. This looks a lot like the same struggle that cryptos have with established financial authorities and governments. Creating regulations is a necessary part of any society, but most Western cultures are founded on ideals like individual freedom and the right to political representation.
These ideals haven’t been able to take root in the world of video games, probably because of the economic model that drives game development. In order for a game designer to make money, they have to monetize the game’s development directly, either by selling the game, or subscription to play it.
A common platform on which a meta-game structure exists was outlined in the recent movie “Ready Player One”, and this model could be the next phase of global interactive game development. WAX Explorer makes it a lot easier to inspect supported NFTs, and could be an integral part of game development going forward.
Can Bitcoin become a digital version of gold? While many onlookers have mulled over this pertinent question for years on end, in the eyes of Mike Novogratz, the flagship cryptocurrency is well on its way to achieving such a status.
Bitcoin Is Gold On Crypto’s Periodic Table
In a comment issued to Bloomberg TV’s Middle East branch, Novogratz, the founder of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital Holdings, remarked that just as each element on the periodic table corresponds to an atomic number, Bitcoin is the only viable store of value in the cryptocurrency landscape. The former Goldman Sachs partner even noted that Bitcoin’s slow block times and low transactional throughput just accentuate that it is like gold, likening storing the cryptocurrency to how precious metals are kept in Fort Knox.
This isn’t the first time that Novogratz, once the roommate of Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, has taken to public forums to pledge his allegiance for the digital gold argument. On an appearance on CNN Business in September of last year, Novogratz made a comment that was quite reminiscent to the aforementioned. He claimed that Bitcoin has been “vested with a store of value [status}” by investors, adding that utility tokens, blockchain-based security assets, and other subsets of cryptocurrencies won’t ever come close to becoming digital gold.
While Novogratz is adamant in his belief that Bitcoin is more digital gold than anything else, some have claimed that this is pure hearsay. Industry commentator Jason Smith personally remarked that BTC “already is money,” rather than an asset of a different classification. Moreover, in Satoshi’s magnum opus, the original Bitcoin whitepaper, the cryptocurrency’s premise was explained as a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system.”
It’s Gold, Not Digital Cash
Regardless, most, not just Novogratz, have come to the conclusion that the project in its current state is much better suited as a digital store of value than some semblance of a medium of exchange.
Even Nick Szabo, a contender for being the face behind the Satoshi Nakamoto moniker, had made comments that the cryptocurrency has many values that make it resemble the precious metal. In a surprising comment made at the inaugural Israel Bitcoin Summit, the American cryptographer noted that central banks may look into replacing their gold holdings for Bitcoin, especially due to the former’s “physical vulnerability.”
Just days ago, Barry Silbert, the chief executive of the New York-based Digital Currency Group, exclaimed that Bitcoin has already won the digital gold race. Citing anecdotal evidence, Silbert explained that when millennials are clamoring for a store of value, they’ll turn to the cryptocurrency, not gold. The Digital Currency Group founder even commented that the legacy money currently situated in gold holdings will eventually flock to Bitcoin, especially due to the digital asset’s decentralized, secure, and non-sovereign characteristics.
Former Blockchain product manager Dan Held once even embarked on a rant to underscore his belief that Satoshi never meant for Bitcoin to inherently be digital cash, but a store of value that transcends traditional boundaries.
1/ Satoshi’s Vision is a silly endeavor, as it doesn’t matter what it was, we are where we are now. However, those pushing the “Bitcoin was first made for payments” narrative insist on cherry-picking sentences from the white paper and forum posts to champion their perspective.
As reported by Blockonomi on a previous date, in a sweeping 47-part Twitter thread, Held noted that Satoshi him or herself mentioned gold, long-term value growth, Bitcoin’s status as a commodity, and even scarcity. This in and of itself led the commentator to conclude that the pseudonymous coder didn’t intend for the first iterations of Bitcoin to be used actively in day-to-day life through digital merchants.
This was far from the end of Held’s argument. The co-founder of crypto asset manager Interchange drew attention to the network’s cardinal commandments — 21 million BTC supply cap, ten-minute blocks, and block size caps — claiming that Satoshi could have altered these values to push the digital money narrative. But the cryptocurrency godfather didn’t.
JP Morgan, the multinational banking and financial services powerhouse, has announced its development of JPM Coin, the firm’s new stablecoin-like token pegged to the U.S. dollar, and its forthcoming deployment in payment settlement trials later this year.
The launch of the token marks the first time a major U.S. bank has moved to create its own cryptocurrency-inspired asset. JPM Coin will be built on the Quorum blockchain, which is a private fork of Ethereum that Morgan engineers have been working on since 2016. The company had previously considered spinning off Quorum into an independent project.
Morgan is reportedly planning to make the digital coin interoperable with other mainstream blockchains in the future. JPM Coin will start out being deployed in limited payments trials. Notably, Morgan processes trillions of dollars’ worth of transactions daily.
JP Morgan blockchain head Umar Farooq noted that the JPM Coin would initially be targeted toward facilitating large international settlements, conducting securities transactions, and replacing the use of dollars in the company’s treasury services operations.
“The applications are frankly quite endless; anything where you have a distributed ledger which involves corporations or institutions can use this,” Farooq said on the news.
“Pretty much every big corporation is our client, and most of the major banks in the world are too,” he later added.
JPM Coin will rely on a deposit system, where tokens will only be accessible after a fiat deposit has been made to the bank. At this point, the tokens can be used by clients to make blockchain-based payments. The firm will “burn” the requisite amount of tokens when clients cash out their coins.
Mainstream Media Calls It Cryptocurrency, Experts Say Nay
Blockchains are, by definition, public and open systems. JPM Coin will be closed and permissioned, and analysts and pundits throughout the cryptocurrency space have quickly jumped on these points.
“I see folks referring to it as a cryptocurrency — it’s not a cryptocurrency,” Jerry Brito, executive director of non-profit research organization Coin Center, said in the wake of the announcement.
“A cryptocurrency is one that is open and permissionless, if you want to download it, you don’t need permission; you just need some software.”
And others have questioned the value proposition of the token project since it won’t enjoy the advantages inherent to more open cryptocurrencies.
“It appears that JPMorgan’s new cryptocurrency, JPM Coin, is just like all the other cryptocurrencies tied to the value of a dollar, but less useful, because it can’t move anywhere beyond the walls of JPMorgan,” New York Times correspondent Nathaniel Popper noted on Twitter.
Bad News for Ripple?
Cryptoverse payments play Ripple is trying to make the international payments system SWIFT obsolete in the years ahead. But with the launch of JPM Coin, its stable of competitors just got that much more stacked.
JP Morgan’s breadth and reach in mainstream financial circles means it has massive advantages over Ripple if the firm eventually goes full steam ahead on using JPM Coin to facilitate its sprawling international settlements business. As saturation amid blockchain payments providers continues to increase, many institutions turning to the blockchain space will feel more comfortable relying on a trusted brand in Morgan compared the upstart Ripple.
But it’s not only JPM Coin that’s bringing the competition.
Last month, SWIFT announced it was linking Corda, the blockchain project of Ripple competitor R3, to its Global Payments Innovation framework, or GPI. The link-up gives SWIFT customers the ability to settle cross-border payments via blockchain.
Whatever ends up happening, it’s clear Ripple has major competition moving in on its turf. Whether the company can weather the saturation and come out on top in the mainstream is an open question for now.
Bitcoin price finally rebounded after forming a strong support at $3,400. BTC/USD rallied above the $3,550 resistance, traded towards the $3,800 resistance, and later corrected lower. The current price action is positive and there could be more gains in bitcoin and altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), ripple (XRP), bitcoin cash (BCH), litecoin (LTC) and EOS.
Bitcoin price surged above the $3,550 and $3,620 resistance levels.
Ethereum price broke a crucial declining channel with resistance near $106 and settled above $115.
Ripple price is forming a significant breakout pattern with resistance at $0.3130 and support at $0.3000.
EOS price rallied recently above the $2.55 resistance and tested the $3.00 barrier.
INO and TKN rallied more than 150% during the past 7 days.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
After forming a solid support base near $3,400, bitcoin price started a strong upward move. BTC/USD broke the key $3,550 resistance area to move into a bullish zone and start a decent uptrend.
Bitcoin Price Chart: Click to Enlarge
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the price broke many hurdles on the way up, including $3,620 and the 21 simple moving average (4-hours). More importantly, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at $3,450.
The upward move was strong as the price climbed above the $3,700 resistance and traded towards the $3,800 resistance. A high was formed at $3,800 and later the price started a downside correction.
It declined below the $3,700 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,404 low to $3,800 high. However, there is a strong support formed near the $3,625 and $3,640 levels.
Besides, it seems like there is a key bullish flag forming with resistance near $3,700 on the same chart. Should bitcoin break the channel resistance, the price could resume its upward move above $3,750. The main resistance is at $3,800, above which the price may perhaps test the $4,000 level in the coming days.
On the downside, the $3,600 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,404 low to $3,800 high are important buy zones. However, the main support is near the $3,550 level, which is a pivot zone and acted as a resistance earlier.
Therefore, dips remain supported near the $3,600 and $3,550 levels. On the upside, a break above $3,700 and $3,800 is needed for an acceleration towards the $4,000 and $4,200 resistances.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum price also formed a strong support near the $100-102 zone. ETH/USD gained bullish momentum this week and broke many resistance levels, including $110 and $115.
Ethereum Price Chart: Click to Enlarge
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the price traded as low as $102 and later climbed above the $110 resistance. During the rise, there was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance near $106. The price traded above the $115 resistance and settled above the 21 simple moving average (4-hours).
Buyers gained control above the $120 and $125 levels. A high was formed at $130 and later the price corrected lower. It declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $102 low to $130 high.
However, the $120 support area is acting as a decent barrier for sellers. Moreover, there is an ascending channel formed with support at $122 on the same chart.
On the upside, the price must break the $128 and $130 resistance levels to trade further higher. The next stop for buyers could be near $140 or $144. On the other hand, if there is a downside break below the channel support, the price might test the $116 support area.
The 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $102 low to $130 high is also near the $116 level to act as a solid support. Overall, there are high chances of more gains in Ethereum price as long as it is above the $116 support.
Ripple Price Analysis
Ripple price spiked higher on a couple of occasions above the $0.3200 resistance level against the US Dollar. However, XRP/USD buyers failed to retain strength, resulting in bearish and range moves above the $0.3000 support area.
Ripple Price Chart: Click to Enlarge
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the price traded as high as $0.3427 recently and later corrected lower. It declined heavily and broke the $0.3200 and $0.3000 support levels. The price even broke the $0.2950 support and the 21 simple moving average (4-hours).
A low was formed at $0.2900 and later the price started an upside correction. Buyers pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $0.3427 high to $0.2900 low.
However, the upward move was capped by the $0.3250 resistance and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $0.3427 high to $0.2900 low. Ripple trimmed gains and it is currently consolidating above the $0.3000 support area.
More importantly, there is a significant breakout pattern formed with resistance at $0.3130 and support at $0.3000 on the same chart. If there is an upside break above $0.3130 and $0.3150, there could be a solid wave towards the $0.3250 and $0.3350 resistance levels.
Conversely, a downside break below the $0.3000 support might increase bearish pressure on XRP and it could decline towards the $0.2900 or $0.2850 support in the coming sessions.
EOS Price Analysis
EOS price was one of the best performers as it broke the key $2.50 and $2.55 resistances against the US Dollar. After trading in a broad range for a long time, buyers finally took over and pushed the price above the $2.55 and $2.60 resistances.
EOS Price Chart: Click to Enlarge
Looking at the 4-hours chart, the price climbed above the $2.60 and $2.70 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. There was even a close above the $2.65 level and the 21 simple moving average (4-hours).
The price traded towards the $3.00 resistance and formed a high at $3.06 before starting a downside correction. It traded below the $2.90 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $2.31 low to $3.06 high.
However, there is a short-term connecting bullish trend line in place with support at $2.80 on the same chart. It seems like there are two possible scenarios. First, the price continues to move higher towards the $3.00 and $3.10 resistance levels.
Second, the price breaks the trend line and tests the $2.65 support area before a fresh upward move. Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $2.31 low to $3.06 high is also near the $2.68 level to act as a support.
During the past 7 days, a few small cap altcoins rallied and posted gains more than 100%, including INO, TKN, EMPR, UBT, CARD, DIM and LTO (trading volume more than $50K). Out of these, INOR rallied around 400% and TKN gained nearly 180%.
To sum up, bitcoin price clearly moved into a positive zone above the $3,550 and $3,600 levels. Having said that, BTC buyers need to gain strength above $3,700 and $3,800 to push the price further higher. If they continue to struggle, there could be a bearish reaction in BTC and altcoins such as Ethereum, ripple, EOS, stellar, XRP, BNB, ADA, LTC, TRX, XMR and NEO.
The market data is provided by TradingView, Bitfinex.
Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG) says that Bitcoin already won the race to become the number one cryptocurrency in the industry. Silbert, who is also the founder of Grayscale Investments also believes that most altcoins will go to zero, a position held by other industry commentators such as top Bitwise Asset Management executive, Matt Hougan.
Bitcoin is King
Speaking to CNBC, Silbert declared that the race to becoming the king of the cryptocurrency arena was already over with Bitcoin being the undisputed winner. According to the DCG chief, the top-ranked cryptocurrency is already de facto digital gold.
Commenting on the matter, Silbert opined:
“I’m convinced that whatever money is in gold is not going to stay in gold. That gets handed down to millennials [and] I’m highly confident a lot of that will go into bitcoin.”
Silbert’s position comes from the fact that the people in the ‘baby boomer’ generation are either retiring or getting close to retiring. According to a recent Accenture study, $30 trillion wealth belonging to the generation born immediately after World War II is already being passed down to the younger generation.
Investment habits have also changed over the cause of decades, and this wealth transfer should, in theory, see a shift from assets like gold to digital commodities like Bitcoin. Developing industry improvements concerning custody, as well as the entry of notable names like Fidelity Investments also improve the viability of Bitcoin as an asset.
Speaking to Joe Rogan at the start of February 2019, Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, declared BTC to be the most likely candidate for a native Internet currency. According to Dorsey, Bitcoin was born of the Internet and is an embodiment of what a genuinely globalized and decentralized world ought to be.
Most Altcoins Will go to Zero
Concerning altcoins, Silbert appeared significantly less enthusiastic, declaring:
“I’m not a believer in the vast majority of digital tokens and believe most will go to zero.”
Many altcoins emerged on the back of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom which saw developers and entrepreneurs introducing projects and tokens tied to those projects that supposedly revolutionized several aspects of the global business process. In time, many observers began to question the economic viability of many of these tokens.
Also, regulators across the world wary of increasingly fraudulent activities in the ICO arena began to shine the spotlight on these projects. Suffice to say that many continue to fail to live up to their initial lofty ambitions. Also, many projects have ended in lawsuits over claims of fraud and other malpractices.
For Silbert, the ICO craze was merely an opportunity for people to raise money on worthless tokens. In the coming months and years, the DCG boss expects many of these tokens to die out.
Matt Hougan: 95 Percent of Cryptocurrencies Will Die Out
Silbert’s sentiments regarding altcoins greatly mirror that of Bitwise executive Matt Hougan. Speaking during a recent interview with Barry Ritholtz, Hougan declared that 95 percent of cryptocurrencies held no value and would eventually become useless.
The head of global research at the asset management firm said that a situation similar to that of the dot-com era would occur in the cryptocurrency industry. At the end of the cleanse, Hougan believes the only cryptos left standing will be the ones with a solid value proposition.
From yesterday the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap has declined by around $2,13B as it was $122,74 at its highest point yesterday. The evaluation has pulled back to the support line of the currently horizontal range in which it is consolidating after an exponential increase we have seen on Friday.
Market Cap: $120,110,369,694
24h Vol: $20,128,272,598
BTC Dominance: 52.8%
The evaluation is still stuck inside the horizontal resistance zone as you can see from the global chart below, so I breakout to either side is possible as there are two opposite logic here in interpreting the current stagnation – either the buyers are going to interpret this as that the price isn’t going higher and they will turn into sellers, or new buyers are going to interpret this as that the price isn’t going lower which is why they are likely going to get in.
Bitcoin’s price dominance has been increasing slightly as it came from 52.48% at its lowest point yesterday to 52.8% where it is currently sitting.
Bitcoin Price BTC/USD
From yesterday’s high at $3715 the price of Bitcoin has decreased and fell from there to below the level of yesterdays open to $3652 at its lowest point today. The price is currently at $3658 which is an overall decrease of only 0.79% from yesterday’s open.
Looking at the 15-min chart we can see that the price is still in a retracement zone which is turning out to be a descending channel. I have counted three ABC corrections out of which the current one is to the downside which constitutes a WXY of a higher degree.
As the price has been in an upward trajectory the descending channel is viewed as a retracement so after it ends more upside would be expected but before it ends we are most likely going to see some further sideways movement and a slight depreciation in price as the support needs to be established before the attempt to break the current resistance can be made.
If the price comes down again to the descending channels support that would be around $3615, but if it goes below the descending channels support we might see a decrease back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level at around $3500 area.
Hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a sell.
From yesterday’s high at $3.037 the price of EOS has fallen by 8.32% to its lowest point today at $2.784 but has started to gain some minor upside momentum since and is currently sitting at $2.8181
On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has broken the resistance line off of the falling wedge where it was correcting from 24th of December. But it has been stopped out at the resistance found around the ascending channel’s upper line at the vicinity of the first X wave from the Minor WXYXZ correction.
Like in the case of Litecoin, the wave structure implies that another move to the upside should be expected after the current retracement ends for a higher high compared to the one labeled as the Intermediate W wave (orange). The current retracement needs to end at first so I would look out for interaction with some of the support levels potentially around 0.236 Fibonacci level before the expected 5th wave starts developing.
The price target for the mentioned 5th wave and the end of the WXY correction would be slightly higher than 0.382 Fibonacci level, but it could very well end there as the 3rd wave ended lower.
Cryptopia, a New Zealand-based cryptocurrency exchange, has not had the best start to 2019. As per the hack it experienced last month, which resulted in a multi-million dollar token heist, New Zealand police initiated an investigation of their to own ascertain whether or not the platform could have prevented the hack, or worse, was someway involved.
However, it has now been reported that New Zealand Police have given Cryptopia the all clear to resume trading activities. Whilst New Zealand Police have also indicated that they are still engaged in the final stages of their investigation, this should indicate at the very least that Cryptopia themselves were not involved in any internal malpractice.
It is important to note that whilst New Zealand authorities have given the green light for Cryptopia to re-open, it remains to be seen when or if the platform will decide to proceed.
High Tech Crime Group Confirm That Nothing is Stopping Cryptopia From Re-Opening
Whilst it was New Zealand Police that initially took on the case, this was eventually passed on to the High Tech Crime Group. According to Detective Inspector Greg Murton, who spoke with the New Zealand Herald, the investigatory unit have “Finished the main part of the work required by the High Tech Crime Group at Cryptopia’s business premises, although HTCG staff remain there finishing up aspects of their work”. Murton continued to clarify that the final stages of the investigation are not preventing the exchange from re-opening their doors to the public.
Interestingly, when Murton was asked whether or not the team responsible for running the exchange were likely to have criminal charges put against them, the detective refused to comment.
For those looking for clarity on the specific amount stolen, as well as the underlying mechanism that allowed the hackers to succeed in their criminal endeavors, this still remains unclear.
At the time of writing, the general consensus within the industry is that the amount stolen amounted to $16 million worth of cryptocurrency tokens, or $25 million New Zealand Dollars. This figure was initially brought forward by a blockchain analysis firm called Elementus.
Through the use of an Ethereum blockchain analysis tool used by the research firm, Elementus believe that $16 million worth of Ethereum and other ERC-20 tokens were stolen. However, as the analysis engine only covers tokens that run on the Ethereum blockchain, the researchers at Elementus argue that the total amount may in fact be higher.
Total Figure of Stolen Funds Still not Clarified
Whilst Cryptopia director Pete Dawson would not confirm the exact amount that was stolen from their internal servers, he did state that the figures being reported by the media were misinterpreted. Moreover, Cryptopia founders Rob Dawson and Adam Clarke have also failed to notify the public of the exact amount that was stolen, which, taking in to account that the hack happened just over a month ago, is somewhat surprising. We are also yet to ascertain what policy the team at Cryptopia are going to implement with respect to lost customer funds, if any at all.
Whilst it remains to be seen whether or not the exchange will decide to re-open its doors now that it has the green light from New Zealand authorities, it also remains unclear as to what affect this will have on Cryptopia’s customer base. Although various exchanges that have previously been accustomed to an external hack and since recovered, research suggests that this has been in direct response to a customer re-payment plan for those that have had funds stolen.