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HotForex Analysis by Stuart Cowell - 9h ago

Draghi’s comments that rate cuts and further QE are on the agenda was all the markets needed. EUR dived, Equities rallied and non-yielding Gold breached $1350 again.

Mario moves the markets | June 18, 2019 - YouTube

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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HotForex Analysis by Andria Pichidi - 9h ago

Stock markets are on the rise in pre-market dealings amid elevated hopes that the core central bank will deliver further accommodation in the near term. Dovish comments from the ECB’s Draghi, along with softer Eurozone data, boosted expectations that the ECB will deliver easier monetary policy soon. 

European bourses recovered on this combination of dovish Draghi comments and the plunge in German ZEW investor expectations. Draghi not only confirmed that further easing will be necessary should the outlook not improve, but also that rate cuts and asset purchases are part of the central bank’s toolkit. 

Meanwhile, Eurozone HICP inflation was confirmed at just 1.2% and trade data showed a sharp correction in exports, which further fueled easing hopes as the Ifo institute joined the Bundesbank and downgraded its growth forecast for Germany. 

A much lower than anticipated outcome which confirms that investors are in full on crisis mode and are increasingly convinced that geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit risks will lead to a marked downturn in the global economy, with the export-oriented German economy in particular vulnerable to an environment that is increasingly hostile for global trade. The current conditions indicator for Germany actually fell less than feared, but expectations are clearly  increasingly depressed, which ties in with the fact that market based indicators of inflation expectations  are starting to also look worrying  to the ECB.

The GER30 has jumped 1.2%, while CAC 40 and Italian MIB outperformed with a better than 1% rally. The UK100 is 0.8% higher, while the USA500 is up 0.5%.

The strong jump of GER30 today raised doubts of the continuation of the bearish outlook for the index. The asset managed to break 3-week Resistance, hence the next level to be watched is at May 16 high at 12,318.90 and then year’s peak at 12,444.00. The floor meanwhile, lifted to 12,090.50 (at 50-day SMA). Immediate Support though is set at the latest daily up fractal and last week’s high, at 12,244.87, and at Friday’s peak (12,201.00).

Daily Momentum indicators are increasingly benign with RSI rising to 60 area, while the MACD lines turn positive as signal line retests neutral zone. With yesterday’s daily range of just 50 ticks (the ATR is currently around 67 ticks) this is clearly a market waiting for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

A closing today  above the 12,200 area could suggest the turn of the outlook into a positive one in the medium term. This could suggest a retest of the year’s peak. On the flipside, a return back to the 5-day range, could imply that the market is still under big downside pressure.

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The ECB Forum from Sintra, Portugal is the venue of a potentially significant speech from ECB President Mario Draghi. Euro is trading mixed so far today, with a weak GBP and in-demand JPY.

"Attention on Draghi this morning" | June 18, 2019 - YouTube

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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HotForex Analysis by Andria Pichidi - 17h ago
FX News Today
  • Wall Street was managed modest gains, supported by a better than 1% rise in industrials which offset a drop in materials. The markets generally shrugged off a sharp drop in the Empire State manufacturing index and a weaker than expected NAHB housing market index.
  • Asia stock market gains were capped by caution ahead of the Fed meeting.
  • Topix and Nikkei lost -0.88% and -0.81% respectively as the Yen strengthened, the Hang Seng continued to recover and moved up 0.70% after being pressured by political protests last week.
  • The ASX gained 0.54% after getting cut a boost from RBA meeeting minutes signaling another rate cut could be underway.
  • GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed.
  • US futures are slightly in the red.
  • Speculation that the Fed will signal rate cuts is mounting and in Europe ECB officials seem to be readying further easing measures, while the BoE is widely expected to remain on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner
  • AUDUSD also fell to a 5-month low, at 0.6833. The underperformance of the Australian follow was catalyzed by the release of the RBA minutes to the June policy meeting, which saw the central bank cut its cash rate to a record low of 1.25%. The minutes showed that the RBA is of a mind to ease policy again, as soon as July, given prevailing concerns about unemployment and disinflation. AUDJPY pegged below 3-year lows at 74.50, hence next Support is at June 2016 low at 72.40 . 
  • GBPJPY has hit fresh lows, and the yen has remained bid amid a backdrop of continued sputtering in global stock markets. GBPJPY daily volatility has fallen from 140 pips in February to less than 120 today. Key Support levels for both pairs sit at 133.80 and 132.30 respectively.
Main Macro Events Today
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.
  • BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)
  • ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)
Support and Resistance levels

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Stock markets remain cautious ahead of central banks, with Fed and BoE decisions, but also the ECB’s annual conference in Sintra coming into view.

Fed outlooks led the charge, with the futures pricing in a cut as soon as July, thanks to rising tensions in the Middle Ease, elevated uncertainties over a US-China trade deal, signs that the tariffs are weighing on growth, and low inflation.

The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) is anxiously awaited for guidance and any signs of near term easing signals. Along with Chair Powell’s press conference, this meeting also includes a new forecasts and dot plot. A rate cut is not really in the cards, but the policy statement should support the dovish undertone.

Meanwhile, this week’s economic data should provide a neutral backdrop for the Fed as there’s nothing slated that will alter current outlooks for moderate growth and inflation trends.

As for the wider outlook, it was never expected a rate cut as soon as June, and Friday’s retail sales and production data took much of the immediate easing wind out of the markets’ sales. However, the FOMC is highly projected to throw the markets a bone in the form of a shift in language, which will be seen as a dovish twist versus the tone from May 1.

The Fed should remove the word “patient” and replace it with something akin to Chair Powell’s June 4 remark that the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Ironically, the FOMC’s use of “patient” in January signaled a dovish shift, but if it was retained next week “patient” would have more hawkish connotations. Also, it will be difficult for Powell to credibly assert the softer trend in inflation is “transitory,” but he can say the Fed is “monitoring.” These factors will keep expectations alive for an easing in policy down the road.

As for QE, it’s unlikely to be changed given the trimming in the roll-off that just went into effect in May (it would not be good for credibility’s sake). And even though officials will no longer say the balance sheet is on “auto pilot,” we suspect that’s how they view it internally.

The Fed’s forecast revisions will reveal the extent to which the Fed is willing to resist market pressure to mark down their Fed funds rate assumptions in the dot-plot, and their economic forecasts as well. The new dot plot projections should show no change in the target rate in either 2019 or 2020, versus a median prior assumption of a quarter point hike in 2020. Some new estimates will likely show a rate cut this year, versus prior estimates that showed a “hard deck” at the current 2.4% rate, and Bullard may even dissent against an unchanged stance. The estimated longer run rates should be trimmed as well. Prior Fed GDP estimates low-balled the outlook for 2019, and it look like that there is room for hikes in the lower-end estimates despite renewed trade war fears.

Elsewhere, a BoJ announcement highlights a somewhat thin Asian docket, with no change seen to the current extraordinarily accommodative policy setting. In Europe, the slate of economic data should not undermine the ECB’s doves, while an appearance by the ECB’s Draghi will be closely followed for dovish leanings.

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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NZDJPY has remained buoyant at 70.70 after bouncing from a 5-month low on Friday at 70.42, on Yen selling. This price action comes with there being little directional impulse in stock markets in Europe or Asia, but also as Kiwi leads gains since Asia Pacific trading amid better risk sentiment.

Markets are anticipating major central banks to maintain their accommodative policy postures if not to suggest a more dovish stance. The Fed, BoJ, and BoE all meet this week and though none is expected to change rates, market participants will be eager to gauge any shift in tone.

In Japan, the BoJ meets Wednesday-Thursday, and it is widely expected to maintain unchanged policy, attached with more-stimulus-if-needed-down-the-road guidance. Last week, Governor Kuroda told Bloomberg that the central bank had further tools in its stimulus toolkit, though he said further accommodation was not needed at the present juncture.

In data, Japan’s May trade report (Wednesday) should see the prior JPY 56.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 1,000 bln deficit. May national CPI (Friday) should see overall inflation fall to 0.6% y/y from 0.9%, while on a core basis, we expect a 0.5% y/y reading versus 0.9% in April.

Both the BoJ and this week’s data releases are unlikely to have much directional bearing on the Yen. US-China trade tensions have taken a back seat ahead of next week’s G20 gathering, although the lack of preparatory ministerial-level meetings before the summit suggests that the best that could be hoped for is cordiality between the two sides. If not, the is JPY expected to resume its upwards path, driven by safe-haven demand.

Hence, the pair could return down to year’s lows. Today’s under-performance of the Yen reflects the overbought performance of the Yen so far, hence it looks like a correction of the trend.

As the asset moved to the upside so far today, and on the break of the latest up fractal at 70.71, further intraday incline is expected, with next immediate Resistance at 70.80-70.85 (50-period EMA in the hourly chart and midpoint of Friday’s bearish candle). Support is set at 70.60 (23.6% Fib level). A closing today above 70.85 could suggest the retest of a 20-day EMA at 71.40 within the week, however, this scenario looks doubtful, as intraday bullish candles look to shrink something that suggests that incline is already running out of steam.

Hourly momentum indicators have been improved, however, they are still negatively configured.  The daily momentum indicators continue to signal further downwards movement for the asset, with MACD lines forming a bearish cross within the negative area and RSI close to 30.

Therefore, overall outlook remains bearish for the asset from the technical but also the fundamental perspective. Medium term Resistance is set at 71.20 (Friday’s peak), 71.40 (20-day SMA). Support at 70.35 (day’s low).

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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HotForex Analysis by Andria Pichidi - 2d ago

Anticipation is the driver – Geopolitical tensions continue to cap gains and investors are cautious ahead of this week’s closely watched Fed meeting.

Anticipation is the driver | June 17 2019 - YouTube

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meeting in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In UK, voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. In the data-front, ficus turn on inflation and Retail sales. Monday – 17 June 2019
  • Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

Tuesday – 18 June 2019

  • RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation).
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affect the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March.Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.
  • Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations having plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). However, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.
  • Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while at an annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
  • Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”.
  • Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
  • Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.

Click here to access the Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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HotForex Analysis by Andria Pichidi - 5d ago

GBPUSD

The pound has been relatively steady in recent sessions versus the other major currencies, on net, though has retained a heavy tone for want of avid buyers. This comes after a five-week phase of Brexit-related underperformance as markets factored in the delayed Breixt process, the success of the Brexit Party in the EU parliamentary elections in the UK, and the forced resignation of Theresa May.

The Brexit process is now frozen as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. Boris Johnson remains the strong favourite. Whoever it is, the new PM should be installed in No.10 by the end of July, little more than three months until the October 31 Brexit deadline.

Given that there has been no sign that the EU will give any ground on the Northern Ireland backstop issue, the new PM will find themselves in exactly the same predicament/quagmire that consumed Theresa May — trying to find a politically viable Brexit solution as the the head of a weak minority government in a deeply divided parliament, facing an uncompromising EU.

If Boris, a notorious opportunist, is the new PM, then it is expected that he would try and use the credible threat of leaving the EU without a deal in the hope of shifting Brussels out of its red lines. If this endeavour were to fail, which it is assumed it would, he might then call a general election in the hope of stealing the thunder of the newly formed Brexit Party (which dominated EU parliamentary elections in the UK), looking for clear a mandate both for his prime ministership and for a no-deal Brexit.

This backdrop should maintain the pound’s Brexit discount, which it is estimated to have oscillated between 10 and 15% in trade-weighted terms since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016. Cable has resistance at 1.2700 and Support 1.2610.

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The IEA has cut its 2019 estimate for oil demand in its latest monthly report, blaming trade tensions and the associated consequences on the outlook for global growth. The agency stated that the worsening trade outlook is “a common theme across all regions,” and that “the consequences for oil demand are becoming apparent.”

The  USOIL prices are presently down 0.3% on the day, at $52.12. Crude prices rallied yesterday following news that two oil tankers had been attacked in the Gulf of Oman, which the US has blamed on Iran. Developments on this front warrant close scrutiny, though for now crude looks to be remaining in the grip of an overall bear trend.

The WTI benchmark (USOIL) prices are down 3.6% w/w and by over 16% from month-ago levels. The IEA stated that US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan supply, and OPEC-led output quotas, along with disrupted Libyan supply, are only having a limited impact on supply, while surging US supply and increased production from Brazil, Canada and Norway would add to an increase in non-OPEC supply, estimated to be 1.9 mln bpd this year and 2.3 mln bpd in 2020.

Currently in the commodity markets, the USOIL is traded at low $52 area, with lack of direction so far today, but in general in June, as it bounces between $50.50-$54 range. Despite the 2-week consolidation within the range, the asset is forming lower highs this week, supporting USOIL weakness. Hence the medium term outlook remains bearish since mid April, while the upcoming week could be key for the future performance of oil, even-though fundamentals are bearish as well.

From the technical perspective, MACD is negatively configured well below neutral zone, while RSI has improved slightly but remains trapped oversold zone. Therefore USOIL needs to present a sufficient rally (more than $57) for the negative outlook to change.

Yesterday’s high at $54.43 is the immediate Resistance for the asset. However the Key Resistance and Support levels for the USOIL are $54.80 and 2-week low at $50.15 respectively. A break below the latter could open the doors towards 2018 lows, while a break above Resistance could retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $56.60 and the round $57.00 level.

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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