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<p> The SP500 CFD had a very strong start going into 2019, gaining more than 15% up to the week before Easter. In fact, the SP500 CFD was up more than 10% in the first three months of 2019 - which has happened only ten times since 1950, with the SP500 CFD closing higher for the rest of the year nine out of those ten times (with 1987 being the only exception). </p><p> When looking at the chart below, we not only see that the SP500 CFD gained for three months straight (which has happened just 19 times since 1950, with the SP500 CFD subsequently closing the year stronger 18 times). But we also see that the SP500 CFD didn't close Q1 below December's low, which has happened 34 times since 1950, and in all cases, market participants saw the full year rise higher in terms of total return. </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-sp500-advantage"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/6daa8f8570546020f7b9327baea63834.png"></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><em>MT5</em></a><em> with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE Add-on</em></a><em> SP500 CFD Daily chart (between January 24, 2018, to April 12, 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em> </p><p> In 2014, the value of the SP500 CFD increased by 11.39%, in 2015, it fell by -0.73%, in 2016, it increased by 9.54%, in 2017, it increased by 19.42%, in 2018, it fell by -6.24%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 36.8%. </p><p> <br> </p><p> With that being said, traders could profit from the bullish price action once again on March 21, with a strategy you can learn more about in one of Admiral Markets' educational webinars. <br> <br> But before we take a deeper look into the trading setup and the trade of this specific day, let's review the 3 steps of the S&P500 open range breakout strategy: </p><ol> <li><em>Define open range between 3:30pm and 4:15pm (CET)</em></li> </ol><ol start="2"> <li><em>Identify the advantage: based on the 15-min-EMA (10)</em> </li> </ol><ul> <ul> <li>SP500 CFD trades <strong>above </strong>→ <strong>long</strong></li> <li>SP500 CFD trades <strong>below </strong>→ <strong>short</strong></li> </ul> </ul><ol start="3"> <li><em>Trade the break of the open range in direction of the identified advantage.<br></em> <br> <em>Stop above/below the high/low of the range (= 1R), take profit: "time take profit", meaning that the trade is taken out manually at 9:50pm (CET) if it wasn't stopped out before</em></li> </ol><p> <br> </p><p> In the following, let's go through these three steps and see how the setup would have performed on March 21: </p><ol> <li>The high and low between 3:30 and 4:15pm (CET) can be found between 2,814 and 2,834.7 points, so the open range is<strong> 2,814 - 2,834.7</strong></li> </ol><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-sp500-advantage"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/58d9ccbeeae0701f8cb25daf193d81a4.png"></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on SP500 CFD 15 minute chart (between March 20, 2019, to March 22, 2019). Accessed: April 10, 2019, at 12:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em> </p><p> <em><br> </em> </p><ol start="2"> <li>As you can see in the chart above, the SP500 CFD initially traded above the EMA(10) on a 15-minute time frame (blue line). That resulted in the fact that only long trades were taken and this only if the SP500 CFD breaks out on the upside of the open range. </li> </ol><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-sp500-advantage"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/5b63a36ef7056a7934511d43a6797148.png"></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on SP500 CFD 15 minute chart (between March 20, 2019, to March 22, 2019). Accessed: April 10, 2019, at 12:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. </em></p><p> <em><br> </em> </p><ol start="3"> <li>As you can see in the chart above, the SP500 CFD broke out of its open range on the upside and started to move in direction of the breakout in the minutes and hours to come. <br> <br> The stop was placed at the low of the range, resulting in a risk of 20.7 points. <br> <br> Since the setup works with a time stop out/take profit in case of the trade not being stopped out during the trading day, it is taken out at 9:50pm (CET). Following this rule, we did as such and took the trade out at 2,857 points. <br> <br> This resulted in a profit for the day and for the setup of 22.3 points and a profit factor of 22.3 points : 20.7 points = 1.08 : 1.<br> <br> A final note: a profit factor close to and below one could be a warning sign that the move on the upside in the SP500 CFD could be a little extended and be a signal of becoming more careful in regards to intraday long engagements. </li> </ol><p><em><br></em></p><p> <em>Check out Admiral Markets' most competitive conditions on the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30"><em>DAX30 CFD</em></a><em> and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours! </em> <em>To test Admiral Markets DAX offering in combination with the described strategy above </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo"><em>register for a free demo account</em></a><em> today and experience the live market risk free!</em> </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-sp500-advantage"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/0bb80f35beb6c2a9918a6ad83049b6d9.png" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!" rel="" style=""></a></a> </p><p> <em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em> </p><ol> <li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li> <li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li> <li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li> <li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li> <li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li> <li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li> <li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li> <li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li> </ol><p><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em></p>
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<p>Since going public in 1997, Amazon finally managed to reach a $1 trillion valuation in 2018. While the company's stock price has struggled at different times in its history, it still amounts to a dizzying 80,000% share price growth. Much of this growth is down to its founder, Jeff Bezos.</p><p><em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/amazon-billion-dollar-failures"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/5459a2922c4b6a92ccdbdf487182d760.png"></a></em></p><p>Bezos' annual letter to shareholders is high on the reading list of every investor. And, after releasing the letter in early April, it has investors on high alert. In this article, we explore the contents, the impact on its share price and the possible trading opportunities for Amazon stock. </p><p><br></p><h2>Jeff Bezos' Multi-Billion Dollar Warning</h2><p>"Amazon will be experimenting at the right scale for a company of our size if we occasionally have multi-billion dollar failures," Bezos said in his annual shareholder letter. "We will work hard to make them good bets, but not all good bets will ultimately pay out."</p><p>For most investors, having the CEO of a trillion-dollar company talk about having multi-billion dollar failures may be cause for concern. However, Bezos is no ordinary CEO. After founding Amazon as an online bookstore in 1994, Bezos has built Amazon's revenue stream from a multitude of places such as Amazon Studios, Amazon Electronics, Amazon Grocery, Amazon Cloud (AWS), a raft of artificial intelligence products and government contracts, and their world famous Amazon.com e-commerce site. </p><p>Of course, Bezos also sustained a positive attitude in his letter, rather than just warning signs, stating that: "The good news for shareowners is that a single big winning bet can more than cover the cost of many losers." Sage advice for many traders! But where will this big winning bet come from? Will it be Amazon's foray into the $3 trillion a year health care market? Internet deliveries from outer space? Only time will tell, but analysing Amazon's share price and viewing analyst expectations could give us a headstart. </p><p><br></p><h2>What Do Amazon's Analyst Expectations Suggest?</h2><p>Out of 45 <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/analyst/amzn">surveyed</a> brokers and investment banks, 40 have a buy rating on the stock and five have an 'overweight' rating. In fact, many investment banks such as RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank and the Credit Suisse Group, initiated their buy ratings this year. Of course, this never means the stock price will just go up - but it does show that these big investors feel positive about the fundamentals of the company. </p><p>In fact, out of these surveyed brokers and investment banks, the average price target for the stock is $2,128, with the highest target at $2,450 and the lowest target at $1,850. While these are merely just the opinions of different analysts, the figures represent some possible upside in Amazon's share price from its current level. What does the chart tell us?</p><p><br></p><h2>Trading Amazon Stock CFDs</h2><p>The long-term price chart of Amazon, shows a clear trend higher, as shown below:</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/amazon-billion-dollar-failures"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/4197a050bb5502a8b8978e7189921686.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5 Supreme Edition</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/amzn"><em>AMZN</em></a><em>, Weekly - Data range: from April 10, 2011, to April 15, 2019, accessed on April 15, 2019, at 11:28 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p><p>Zooming in to more recent price action on the daily chart and it is clear there is some upside left before the median price target for different analysts of $2,128, as shown below:</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/amazon-billion-dollar-failures"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/f089c590d01e37b1a8e5650f2fa752ea.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, AMZN, Weekly - Data range: from November 15, 2017, to April 15, 2019, accessed on April 15, 2019, at 11:33 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p><p>This type of analysis can be useful for traders in choosing a directional bias on the stock. As recent price action shows, markets do not just move in a straight line. Therefore, traders will often use technical analysis tools and indicators to help identify possible entry and stop loss levels that provide low-risk buying opportunities. You can learn more about online stock trading strategies for this year in <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-strategy/forex-cfd-markets">'Forex & CFD Markets 2019'</a>. </p><p>One of the best ways to test your strategies, trading tools, theories or ideas is by using a <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo">risk-free demo trading</a> account for the MetaTrader 5 platform so you can access global stocks, currencies and commodities starting today. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/products/stocks"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/amazon-billion-dollar-failures"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/3d8c10c3e40088590547fd874b07f4d3.png" style="" alt="Open a Trader's ROom account and begin trading today!" rel=""></a></a></p><p><em>The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor) based on personal estimations.</li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li><li>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure">risks.</a></li></ol>
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<h2>Economic Events 15th of April – 19th of April 2019</h2><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/e279b2874c12dd18aa6bd3c4855ca184.png" alt="Economic evnts calendar" rel="" style=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Economic Events Calendar April 15 – 19, 2019 - </em><em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar">Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar</a></em></p><p><br></p> <h2>DAX30 CFD</h2><p>The outlook for the DAX30 CFD in the days leading up to Easter seems very positive. </p><p>Even though the ECB didn't deliver anything new in regards to its planned TLTROs or the rumours around tiered deposit rates for European banks, a no-deal Brexit seems off the table (at least for now). And while we still have to wait for a trade deal between the US and China, the fact that the DAX30 CFD didn't see significant selling pressure on the latest "TTT" (<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1115578769518018560" target="_blank">Trump-Tariff-Threat</a>) after the WTO found that the EU subsidies for Airbus had adversely affected the US, and tariffs on 11 billion USD of EU product are on its way - is a positive sign. </p><p>That said, the SP500 CFD adds to this optimism: over the last 21 years, the SP500 CFD has gained on average 21 points within the time span of the 15th to 19th of April in 76% of the cases or 16 years. </p><p>With this in mind it seems likely, that the DAX30 CFD will stabilise around if not significantly push above 12,000 points before Easter with a potential sharp drop in volatility into the mid of the week.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the picture stays positive as long as we trade above the SMA(200) and the target around 12,500 points stays active.</p><p>Only a drop below the SMA(200) and 11,250 would clearly darken the technical picture.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/555eab1ff00e07a4fbcd7504642b8d3c.png" alt="DAX30 CFD index daily chart" rel="" style=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><em>MT5</em></a><em> with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE Add-on</em></a><em> DAX30 CFD daily chart (between November 23, 2017, to April 12, 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.</p><p>Check out Admiral Markets' most competitive conditions on the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30">DAX30 CFD</a> and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours!</p> <h2>US Dollar</h2><p>Our analysis of the US dollar hasn't significantly changed over the last week of trading. While 10-year US Treasury yields keep on stabilising, the ECB didn't deliver anything new in regards to the monetary policy with Draghi pointing to the next meeting in June and market participants still wait on details around the US/Chinese trade deal.</p><p>With that in mind, and the prolonged Easter weekend ahead, subdued volatility is to be expected from Wednesday onwards. With no expectations of further details regarding the trade deal between the US and China coming, we don't see significant pushes on the up- or downside for the USD in the coming days. </p><p>The technically relevant levels are around the range 97.00 points on the upside where an upwards break activates 98.00 points as a potential target, while on the downside the region around 95.00 is of high importance.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/b8473132e4d1fb186630495ccafb9296.png" alt="USD index daily chart" rel="" style=""></a></p><p><em>Source: </em><a href="https://www.barchart.com/" target="_blank">Barchart</a> <em>- U.S Dollar Index - Weekly Nearest OHLC Chart (between May 2016 to April 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT</em></p><p>Don't forget to <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars/admiral-markets-weekly-market-outlook-1">register</a> for the weekly webinar "Admiral Markets' Weekly Market Outlook" with Jens Klatt, every Friday at 12pm London time! It's your opportunity to follow Jens as he explores the weekly market outlook in detail, so don't miss out!</p><p><br></p> <h2>Euro</h2><p>During the last week of trading, all eyes were on the ECB. The ECB elected to hold, as expected, all rates at their current levels, MRO at 0%, Depo at -0.4%, and communicated that it sees rates staying at present levels at least through the end of 2019, while planning to reinvest the QE debt for an extended period of time after its first rate hike. </p><p>Even though all of this was expected, the ECB did not make any references to TLTROs or tiered deposit rates which could have realistically resulted in a push to and below 1.1200 for the EUR/USD. </p><p>Instead, the currency pair saw only a short push on the downside from which it quickly recovered. Nevertheless, the used lingo from Mario Draghi at the press conference where he reinforced that all instruments are available underlined that the overall outlook for the Euro stays bearish. </p><p>This is probably especially true after US president Trump brought back potential tariffs on EU products worth 11 billion USD, adding to rising recession fears in the EU.</p><p>But especially this aspects holds chances of a short-squeeze in the Euro which we made already a topic in <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears">last week's market outlook</a> where we stated, that </p><p><em>[…]the Short exposure in the EuroFX future in the CoT in combination with a potential favourable trade deal struck between the US and China, could positively spill-over to the Euro and be good for a sharper short squeeze and a push back towards 1.1400.[…]</em></p><p>Nevertheless, for the next few days before Easter, we should not expect huge volatility and the EUR/USD stabilising in the region between 1.1200 and 1.1400. A (surprising) break below 1.1180/1200 makes further losses very likely and levelling the path down to 1.0900/0950: </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/2f8f83364491d6696c5ef17caff4465a.png" style="" alt="EUR/USD index daily chart" rel=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between November 29, 2017, to April 12, 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 11.9%, in 2015, it fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 16.5%.</p><p><br></p> <h2>JPY</h2><p>Over the last week of trading, the USD/JPY was capable of holding above 111.00 and go for another stint towards 112.00. </p><p>This is usually considered a positive sign, however, since the upcoming Easter weekend and the to be expected subdued volatility usually speaks for a potential risk-on market environment in which the JPY should normally underperform. </p><p>That said and in combination with the ongoing stabilisation in 10-year US Treasury yields, the bullish seasonal pattern in the SP500 CFD which we discussed in the DAX30 CFD section above and the long awaited US/Chinese trade deal, new yearly highs and a push above 112.00 seems to have a quite high likelihood. </p><p>If a break above 112.00 happens, further gains up to 114.50/115.00 become an option. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/23354607c707a1141dbe23d0952e3bca.png" style="" alt="USD/JPY index daily chart" rel=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY 4-hour chart (between January 12, 2019, to April 12, 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.</p><p><br></p> <h2>Gold </h2><p>The technical picture for Gold remains not only very interesting with the potential head-shoulder formation on a daily chart, but also somehow bearish. </p><p>Even though Gold bulls made an attempt to push the yellow metal back above 1,300 USD, the precious metal closed the week below this current psychologically relevant level, bringing the neckline and the important support region around 1,275/277 USD back into the focus of market participants. </p><p>While the upcoming, prolonged Easter weekend leaves chances of high volatility and a break in the day to come low, a thinning out market environment could result in a surprising and sharp break of 1,275 USD. Such a downward break activates the region around 1,235/240 USD as an initial target on the downside. </p><p>The risk for Gold bulls would be negated if they succeed in reconquering 1,325 USD with a daily close at best. Such a push higher would clearly activate 1,350 USD and the crucial resistance zone around 1,360 USD: </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/c619218421cc8c4992610f94a9bd85af.png" style="" alt="Gold index daily chart" rel=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 14, 2018, to April 12, 2019). Accessed: April 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/easter-low-volatility"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/beceb48e5a040b515d6f483d1c20589f.png" style="" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!" rel=""></a></a></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li></ol><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em>
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<p>After a shocking US employment data report in March - showing only 20,000 jobs were added to the US economy - the release of the April's payrolls number was always going to be hugely important.</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/87259486ea8e14beef90bff525bfe7a2.jpeg" alt="USD Payroll data shocks the market" rel="" style=""></a></p> <p>In today's article, we explore why the US Non-Farm Payroll figure is the hottest news item on the monthly calendar, what the April jobs report means for the market and why the USD/JPY is presenting some interesting trading opportunities. </p><p><br></p> <h2>What is US Non-Farm Payroll?</h2><p>The US Non-Farm payroll figure, or NFP for short, measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry, for the previous month. The number is typically released on the first Friday of every month at 2.30pm CET and you can track the release, along with other news items using a <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar">Forex Calendar</a>. </p> <p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps the figure a closely guarded secret until its release. However, economists and analysts suggest a forecast the payroll figure could be. Traders typically position themselves accordingly before, during and after the release of the actual figure. </p> <p>If payrolls are higher than forecast, the US dollar typically rises. If payrolls are lower than forecast, the US dollar typically falls. However, the magnitude of the difference between the actual figure and the forecast figure plays an important role, as well as how much 'expectancy' is already priced in from traders who position themselves before the release. </p><p><br></p> <h2>Why is US Non-Farm Payroll Important?</h2><p>Payroll figures and employment numbers in any country are considered high impact news items. One of the reasons is simple - job creation shows the strength or weakness of an economy. </p> <p>If business conditions are good, companies will hire more people. If more people are employed, more spending takes place in the economy. The more spending that takes place, the better it is for business and the cycle keeps on going. Of course, if business conditions are not good, then companies are less likely to hire more people which means less spending in the economy and the start of weak economic growth. </p> <p>Investors move money around based on where they think the best growth will take place - which is why the employment number is the hottest item on the economic calendar at the beginning of each month. </p><p><br></p> <h2>How to Trade US Non-Farm Payroll</h2><p>In the first week of April, the US Non-Farm Payroll figure beat market expectations posting a gain of 196,000 jobs against an expected 172,000. However, at the same time, another important figure related to employment numbers is also released. It is related to the growth in wages and is called Average Hourly Earnings. </p> <p>While the NFP figure showed a rise in the number of jobs added to the economy, the Average Hourly Earnings data showed a drop in the price businesses pays for those jobs. In fact, the market was expecting a slight drop from the month before of 0.3% but the actual figure came in at just 0.1%. </p> <p>So how did the market react? Let's look at the thirty-minute chart of the USD/JPY:</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/6ca6852710d6478e34c702b1e4259be2.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5 Supreme Edition</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/usdjpy"><em>USD/JPY</em></a><em>, M30 - Data range: from April 4, 2019, to April 8, 2019, accessed on April 8, 2019, at 11:08 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>In the screenshot above, the blue arrow shows the thirty-minute candle after the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll. The candle is relatively large and ended as a <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-basics/everything-you-need-to-know-about-candlestick-trading">doji candle</a>, which represents indecision because the open and close of the candle are very close together and towards the middle of the entire candle's length. Traders could have expected this after a mixed report which showed a positive number in payrolls but a negative number in wages. </p> <p>However, was the high of the thirty-minute candle random? Let's zoom out of the USDJPY chart and look at the bigger picture. </p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/51f3722083c8770c6487801e16a42999.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, USD/JPY, Daily - Data range: from March 7, 2018, to April 8, 2019, accessed on April 8, 2019, at 11:16 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>In the daily chart of the USD/JPY above, there are two <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/the-most-valuable-support-and-resistance-levels-in-forex-cfd-trading">resistance lines</a> that intersect at one price level. Traders often use horizontal resistance lines and trend resistance lines as areas to sell, or short, from. In this instance, the high of the thirty-minute candle after the release of NFP, moved into the resistance lines as shown from the two blue lines on the chart above. </p> <p>Combining higher timeframe with lower timeframes can be very useful in finding clarity during high impact news events. Many traders will use the lower timeframes to enter positions based on the direction of the higher timeframe, to try and achieve high reward setups relative to their risk. </p> <p>So what's next for the USD/JPY?</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/477b79493e36e6a13a93d2bc597293c2.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, USD/JPY, Weekly - Data range: from December 18, 2011, to April 10, 2019, accessed on April 10, 2019, at 10:10 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>In the above long-term chart of USDJPY it is clear to see the overall market is trading within the upper resistance and lower support lines, highlighted in blue. Longer-term traders may use these levels to help in their trading decisions, whereas shorter-term traders will look at more recent price data, as the chart below shows. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/51fd8538f910cdff635ab5293ce35872.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, USD/JPY, Daily - Data range: from July 20, 2018, to April 8, 2019, accessed on April 8, 2019, at 11:28 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>With mixed employment results, it is clear to see the momentum higher in the USD/JPY has waned. As this slowdown in momentum has occurred at major resistance lines, sellers could stay in control of the market - possibly back down to the next level of support denoted by the ascending blue line on the chart above. </p> <p>However, if buyers can break through its current resistance lines, then more will likely join in - fuelling a bigger push to the upside. Either way, there seem to be some very interesting trading opportunities to test out. Sign up for a free <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo">demo account</a> to trade in a risk-free environment.</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/products/stocks"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/usd-payrolls-shocks-market"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/4cb378b0612b1627f9dacf235b6c7a09.png" style="" alt="Open an account and begin trading stocks today!" rel=""></a></a></p><p><em>The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor) based on personal estimations.</li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li><li>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure">risks.</a></li></ol>
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<p> The DAX30 CFD not only saw a very positive first quarter for 2019, but also a very strong start into April with new yearly highs. Many traders may have wondered whether it was possible to profit from this sharp bullish rally, and here's a specific strategy how. </p><p> Thanks to a known bullish seasonal pattern in the DAX30 CFD in the time frame between March 7, until April 3, it would have been indeed possible. </p><p> <br> </p><h3>Seasonal Pattern in the DAX30 CFD</h3><p> The key parameter of this seasonal bullish pattern is as follows: between March 7, until April 3, for the past 16 years, the DAX30 CFD saw an average gain of 292 points for 12 of those years, and lost on average 109 points over the remaining, with a maximum loss of 271 points. </p><p> <br> </p><h3>How to Trade The DAX30 CFD Seasonal Pattern</h3><p> But now the interesting question: <strong>how do we prepare to trade this?</strong> </p><p> We want to use the following plan: </p><ol> <li><em>After the identification of the profitable seasonal window, enter the market on the closing price of the starting date on March 7, (21:59 CET) at 11,492 points.</em></li> </ol><ol start="2"> <li><em>Identify the maximum loss within the seasonal period. Then, have a look at the daily chart and the indicator ATR(14). <br> <br> If the maximum loss is above the ATR(14) reading, round it up to the next round number and use it as worst-case-stop. <br> If the maximum loss is below the ATR(14) reading, use the ATR(14) as your stop-width (rounded up to the next round number). </em><br> <br> Since the ATR(14) in the DAX30 CFD, on a daily time frame, was trading around 126 points, we want to use the maximum loss of the window of 271 points as our worst-case stop which we placed at 11,220 points. </li> </ol><ol start="3"> <li><em>Look at the average gain of the seasonal pattern. Place the take profit away this average gain from your entry point. <br> </em><br> The average gain of the seasonal pattern is 292 points within the defined period. So, after entering the trade on the opening price of March 7, at 11,492 points, we add those 292 points from it to get our take profit level at 11,784. </li> </ol><ol start="4"> <li><em>If the trade is not stopped out in this way, it does not reach its take profit within the seasonal period - end the trade market on the closing price of the identified. <br> </em><br> The Take Profit was hit on March 19, around two weeks after the entry of the trade happened. </li> </ol><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-april-seasonal-pattern"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/2a2fc39eda72c4d301e52de36d598bf5.png" style="" rel="" alt="DAX30 CFD hourly chart"></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><em>MT5 </em></a><em>with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE</em></a><em> Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between February 26, 2019 to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em> </p><p> In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%. </p><p> Check out Admiral Markets' most competitive conditions on the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30">DAX30 CFD</a> and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours. To test Admiral Markets DAX offering in combination with the described strategy above <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo">register for a free demo account</a> today and experience the live market risk free! </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-april-seasonal-pattern"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/9e6caf6a8347060746bc5a8a2a8e7599.png" style="" rel="" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!"></a></a> </p><p> <em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em> </p><ol> <li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li> <li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li> <li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li> <li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li> <li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li> <li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li> <li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li> <li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li> </ol><p> <em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em> </p>
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<h2>Economic Events April 8 – 12, 2019</h2><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/2a8d7cef4db0946c63845a9609263922.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Economic Events Calendar April 8 – 12, 2019 - </em><em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar">Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar</a></em></p><p><br></p> <h2>DAX30 CFD</h2><p>Last week, DAX30 CFD bulls finally pushed through and reconquered the SMA(200) on a daily time frame, landing back above 12,000 points. This arrived followed by hopes of a coming solution to the trade conflict between the US and China, and a weaker Euro stabilising only slightly above 1.1200.</p><p>From a purely technical standpoint, the mode looks a little extended on the upside and a consolidation, probably a short pullback towards 11,800/830, a little lower towards 11,700 points in the upcoming days seems to be favoured, while on the other hand the way up to 12,500 points is levelled. </p><p>Nevertheless, despite all the optimism, one should definitely be careful: with time running out in regards to the Brexit deal, a no-deal scenario became very likely over the last week. </p><p>And if no deal between the EU and the UK can be struck by Friday, a sharp drop in the DAX becomes a serious possibility. In general, the picture looks very similar to the DAX30 CFD in June 2016, the week before the initial Brexit vote, where the DAX gained nearly 1,000 points or 10%+ the days before the vote, only to drop over 1,000 points and more on the day of. </p><p>Such a scenario is once again a possibility, and should be taken into account when engaging in the current bull run in the German index. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/1b611c07f47fa557cfb72874791d1b3d.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><em>MT5</em></a><em> with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE Add-on</em></a><em> DAX30 CFD daily chart (between November 23, 2017, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. </em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.</p><p><em>Check out Admiral Markets' most competitive conditions on the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30"><em>DAX30 CFD</em></a><em> and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours! </em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <h2>US Dollar</h2><p>While our overall scepticism towards the US dollar is still ongoing after the dovish Fed report on March 20, the stabilisation of 10-year US Treasury yields and solid economic data for the US economy over the last week, paint an optimistic picture for the coming days.</p><p>We should take care to watch the stabilisation in US yields as they could start to shift, particularly if speculation grows around the uncertainty of the trade conflict between the US and China as it is currently holding business back, as markets await a deal to be struck.</p><p>On the other hand, we should remember that the US dollar could see some heavy selling if a trade deal is struck, since China, but also regions like the EU or Japan, would not face any pressure to weaken their currencies against the dollar to counter any negative effects of tariffs on their exports. </p><p>Technically, the US Dollar index future remains bullish, as long as it trades above 95.00 points, making another test of the region around 97.50 points an option: </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/6fc3b7cda02c96433fb6e6d6b2a99c60.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: </em><a href="https://www.barchart.com/"><em>Barchart</em></a> <em>- U.S Dollar Index - Weekly Nearest OHLC Chart (between May 2016 to April 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT</em></p><p><em>Don't forget to </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars/admiral-markets-weekly-market-outlook-1"><em>register</em></a> <em>for the weekly webinar "Admiral Markets' Weekly Market Outlook" with Jens Klatt, every Friday at 12pm London time! It's your opportunity to follow Jens as he explores the weekly market outlook in detail, so don't miss out!</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <h2>Euro</h2><p>The price action in the Euro has been subdued over the last week of trading, with the EUR/USD currency pair still trading slightly above 1.1200. Interestingly enough, the solid US economic data looks to be interpreted as positive, but not positive enough to initiate a break lower in the EUR/USD.</p><p>But, over the next few days, enough potential trigger events are on the agenda, such as the ECB rate decision on Wednesday. While it seems difficult to see any change in the rhetoric of the central bank in terms of rates or the plans to issue new TLTROs in the second half of 2019, it will be interesting to see how advanced talks are in regards to tiered rates for European banks. </p><p>As discussed in our <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/ecb-rumours-gold-disappoints">last weekly market outlook</a>, a decision like this from the ECB would clearly signal that rates would stay low for a very long time to come, and contrary to the currently expected first rate hike at the end of 2020. It would leave the Euro vulnerable to a significant downward drop. If this happens, an initial target can still be found in the region of the duplicated range between 1.1200 and 1.1500, around 1.0900/0950. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/08d2223ca9da7f64de4dbd41e8a4d045.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between November 29, 2017, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 11.9%, in 2015, it fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 16.5%.</p><p><br></p> <p>However, when looking at the short exposure in the EuroFX future in the Commitment of Traders Report, and not only spotting a potentially favourable trade deal between the US and China (which would implicitly mean favourable trade negotiations between the US and EU), but also a last-minute solution in regards of a Brexit deal, the Euro could be good for a sharper short squeeze and a push back towards 1.1400:</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/504c98a2b4bed6a52b23963f0b5074a2.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Barchart</em> <em>– EuroFX Future (E6) - Weekly Nearest OHLC Chart (between May 2016 to April 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <h2>JPY</h2><p>In our <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/ecb-rumours-gold-disappoints">last weekly market outlook</a>, we pointed out that, despite the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields and the uncertainty surrounding Turkey and their collapsing currency which has the potential for a spill-over effect on other emerging markets, the Yen couldn't reach a profit. </p><p>Beginning a week ago last Monday, with an initial stabilisation of 10-year USTs, the USD/JPY pushed back above 111.00 and has the potential to mark new yearly highs in the coming days, especially if a trade deal between the US and China is finally struck. </p><p>But despite the optimism, chances of a no-deal Brexit has risen significantly over the last days, and if no effective deal is found by Friday, April 12, the JPY could see some heavy capital inflows due to an unwinding of carry trades. </p><p>If the expected rise in volatility comes with a drop below 109.70, a dynamic push down to around 108.50 seems very likely. </p><p>But, before this scenario develops and becomes a reality, the bullish outlook for the USD/JPY remains intact. And if the USD/JPY bulls push the currency pair back above 112.00, further gains up to 114.50/115.00 becomes an option.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/3a3f97319ffbf63726c3dfd060e94cda.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY 4-hour chart (between January 12, 2019, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.</p><p><br></p> <h2>Gold </h2><p>With the ongoing stabilisation of the 10-year US Treasury yields over the last week, and rising speculation of a trade deal being struck in the near future between the US and China, Gold wasn't capable of reconquering the level of 1,300 USD. </p><p>That said, it's becoming more likely that the precious metal will go for a significant test of the region around 1,275/277 USD in the coming days. If a downward break happens, further losses down towards 1,240 USD becomes very likely, and the head-shoulder formation in the chart below will most likely play out.</p><p>However, we want to remember what we said regarding the DAX30 CFD above: with time running out in terms of a Brexit deal, a no-deal scenario is increasingly likely over the last week.</p><p>If this really happens, the resulting volatility and uncertainty would definitely favour Gold in the short-term, with a sharp rise back above 1,300 USD where we would quickly see further gains up to 1,320/330 USD.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/a48ca246eaf15bce8a6a4ababa9241cf.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 14, 2018, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. </em></p><p>In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-brexit-fears"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/c5ec9004e506265a368908b1405fa72c.png"></a></a></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li></ol><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em>
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<p>The race is on. After Apple and Amazon briefly became trillion dollar companies in 2018, investors are rushing to find the next behemoth. One of the top candidates is Microsoft, which at the beginning of April 2019, had a market capitalisation of $913.15 billion - inching ever so close to the coveted title.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/trillion-club-for-microsoft"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/61beb89fd3a758c48005628ce73ed913.jpeg" style="" alt="Will Microsoft be the next $1 trillion company?" rel=""></a></p><p>In this article, we explore what market capitalisation is, whether or not Microsoft can make it to the trillion dollar club, and the potential trading opportunities around it. </p><p><br></p> <h2>What Is Market Capitalisation?</h2><p>When investors or analysts refer to a company's market capitalisation or market cap, they are referring to the total dollar value of all the company's shares held by investors (commonly called outstanding shares). The metric is calculated by multiplying a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. </p><p>For example, a company with 50 million shares selling at $100 per share would have a market cap of $5 billion (50 million multiplied by 100). The size of a company, or the market cap, is a useful measure because it can help investors with managing portfolio risk. Typically, the market cap of companies are split into three separate groups:</p><ol><li>Large-cap companies: These companies typically have a market cap of $10 billion or more. They are companies that have been around a long time, offer stability and a steady rise in share price and dividend payments.</li></ol> <ol><li>Mid-cap companies: These companies typically have a market cap between $2 billion and $10 billion. These are generally companies that are in the process of expanding and while they are deemed higher risk than large-cap companies, they offer more growth potential. </li></ol> <ol><li>Small-cap companies: These companies typically have a market cap between $300 million and $2 billion. These are generally companies that are new and are considered high risk due to their age and size. </li></ol><p>Microsoft fits firmly in the large-cap group which is why its race toward a trillion dollar valuation has already gathered so much attention from investors and analysts. Can the company do it? Let's find out.</p><p><br></p> <h2>Will Microsoft Be The Next $1 Trillion Company? </h2><p>It's no secret that many investors had left the Windows and Office company for dead, largely thanks to the astonishing growth in competitor Apple. However, Microsoft is likely to go down in the history books in how a company can reinvent itself. Currently, the company's market cap has surpassed that of Apple. </p><p>The turnaround in the company has largely been due to a change in leadership and strategic vision. As recently as 2013, former CEO Steve Ballmer, bought out mobile phone maker Nokia in a vision to make Windows devices the ones to own, once again. </p><p>Just five years later, new CEO Satya Nadella, shut down Windows as an operating division and split the team into two new divisions for Azure Cloud Computing and Office 365. It is cloud computing which has investors most excited. After all, the sector is expected to <a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/news/825767/can-microsofts-market-cap-hit-1-trillion-in-2019">grow</a> into a $400 billion industry by 2020. </p><p>If Microsoft can reach a $1 trillion market cap, it will be largely due to the growth of its cloud computing services. </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/trillion-club-for-microsoft"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/066ec66f1798b9234e19f036242bbc8d.png" style="" alt="Microsoft market cap" rel=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Ycharts</em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <h2>Trading Microsoft Stock Towards A $1 Trillion Market Cap</h2><p>It is estimated that Microsoft needs to trade around the $130 per share price level, to be considered a trillion dollar company (provided the share count remains the same). With the stock price opening at around $118 at the beginning of April 2019, there is still some ways to go. </p><p>However, some analysts have already placed Microsoft on their 'outperform' list, with RBC Capital Markets <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/analysts-opinions/microsoft-corp--outperform-669423">suggesting</a> a $130 price target. That's all good in theory, but what does the price chart show us? After all, a price chart is the truest representation of all the buyers and sellers of Microsoft stock.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/trillion-club-for-microsoft"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/2a2ebd70b099ca5564261f8e6105eaa2.png" style="" alt="Microsoft index chart" rel=""></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5 Supreme Edition</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/msft"><em>MSFT,</em></a><em> Weekly - Data range: from December 27, 2015, to April 2, 2019, accessed on April 2, 2019, at 12:44 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</em></p> <p>It is clear to see from the above weekly chart of Microsoft's stock price, that buyers are in control of the market. This clear trend can help traders identify their trade direction bias. Viewing the lower timeframes such as the daily chart can help in timing trades with entry, target and stop loss levels. </p><p>In the daily chart below, Microsoft's stock price is trading above the 20 exponential moving average, as shown by the blue wavy line. <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-indicators/exponential-moving-average">Moving average</a> indicators are useful in identifying long term trends, but are also useful in identifying areas of <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/the-most-valuable-support-and-resistance-levels-in-forex-cfd-trading">support or resistance</a> for traders buy and sell within.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/trillion-club-for-microsoft"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/e67b5676999b83b3aad3b7200f41bd5c.png" style="" alt="Microsoft index chart" rel=""></a></p><p>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, MSFT, Daily - Data range: from November 26, 2018, to April 2, 2019, accessed on April 2, 2019, at 12:49 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>In Microsoft's case, buyers have been stepping into the market when the stock trades around the 20 exponential moving average. And on March 8, ended as a bullish pin bar reversal, also known as a <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-strategy/forex-price-action-trading-strategy">hammer candle</a>. </p><p>Traders could have entered on the break of the pin bar's high at $111.70. A <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-basics/what-is-stop-loss-in-forex-trading-and-how-to-set-it">stop loss</a> could have been placed at the pin bar's low at $108.80. Trading with a volume of 10 lots, which is the equivalent of 10 shares, then if the entry price was triggered and then went to hit the stop loss, the trader would have lost approximately $29. </p><p>In this instance, the stop loss was not hit. If the trader trailed their stop loss to the low of each buyer bar, the stop loss would have been executed on March 22, at $117.40. This would have resulted in an approximate profit of $57. </p><p>Are you keen to experiment with your own trading ideas? Then sign up for a free <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo">demo account</a> to trade in a risk-free environment.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/products/stocks"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/trillion-club-for-microsoft"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/0c1956c00595707b780a6fe669c91982.png" style="" alt="Open an account and begin trading today!" rel=""></a></a></p><p><em>The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor) based on personal estimations.</li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li></ol><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks.</em></a>
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<p> The first ten days of April will probably be of special interest for EUR/NZD traders. While the currency pair went for a test and short stint below the 2018 yearly lows, it saw a significant pullback last Wednesday. This came in response to the RBNZ stating that the next shift in interests will most likely be downward, and the likelihood of yet another downwards drop in the coming days is very high from a seasonal perspective. </p><p> <br> </p><h2>Seasonal Pattern in EUR/NZD</h2><p> In fact, there is a historically significant probability of a falling EUR/NZD between April 1-10. In 15 out of the past 20 years, the EUR/NZD dropped an average of 235 pips, while losing only 106 pips on average during the remaining five years, with a maximum loss of 240 pips. </p><p> <br> </p><h2>How to Trade The EUR/NZD Seasonal Pattern</h2><p> But now the interesting question: how can we trade this? </p><p> We want to use the following plan: </p><ol> <li><em>After identifying the profitable seasonal window, enter the market on the opening price of the starting date on April 2 (23:00 CET), at 1.6516. </em></li> </ol><ol start="2"> <li><em>Identify the maximum loss within the seasonal period. Then, have a look at the Daily chart and the indicator ATR(14). <br> </em><br> If the maximum loss is <strong>above </strong>the ATR(14) reading, round it up to the next round number and use it as <strong>worst-case-stop</strong>. <br> If the maximum loss is <strong>below </strong>the ATR(14) reading, use the ATR(14) as your <strong>stop-width</strong> (rounded up to the next round number). <br> <br> Since the ATR(14) in the EUR/NZD on a daily time frame is currently trading around 110 pips, we want to use the maximum loss of the window of 240 pips as our worst-case stop which we place at 1.6756. </li> </ol><ol start="3"> <li><em>Look at the average gain of the seasonal pattern. Place the take profit away this average gain from your entry point. <br> </em><br> The average gain of the seasonal pattern is 235 pips within this period. So, after entering the trade on the opening price of the 02nd of April at 1.6516, we subtract those 235 pips from it to get our Take Profit level at 1.6281. </li> </ol><ol start="4"> <li><em>If the trade is not stopped out as such, it does not reach its take profit within the seasonal period - end the trade market on the closing price of the identified period (in the chart below you can see a yellow <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se">smart line</a> on the right for exactly that purpose). </em></li> </ol><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-pattern-eurnzd-april"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/d9cc406aef80352c9039831ab6e7f7df.png"></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5">MT5 </a>with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE</em></a><em> Add-on EUR/NZD Daily chart (between December 16, 2017 to March 29, 2019). Accessed: March 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em> </p><p> In 2014, the value of the EUR/NZD fell by 7.3%, in 2015, it increased by 2.5%, in 2016, it fell by 5%, in 2017, it increased by 11.7%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 2.0%. </p><p> Check out Admiral Markets' most competitive conditions on the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30">DAX30 CFD</a> and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours. To test Admiral Markets DAX offering in combination with the described strategy above <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/forex-demo">register for a free demo account</a> today and experience the live market risk free! </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/seasonal-pattern-eurnzd-april"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/4eb2fcb4f76f942ecf157b2396f336c9.png" style="" rel="" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!"></a></a> </p><p> <em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em> </p><ol> <li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li> <li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li> <li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li> <li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li> <li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li> <li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li> <li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li> <li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li> </ol><p><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em></p>
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<p>Did you know there is a stampede of billion-dollar Silicon Valley companies lining up to go public this year? This could be the opportunity to invest in high-growth companies like Facebook, or Netflix, at the very beginning! Let's look at the Lyft IPO in more detail and whether or not it should be on your watchlist.</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/lyft-ipo-booms"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/0fd81831778085ae35044dfa3ae531a1.jpeg" alt="Trade Lyft with Admiral Markets today!" rel="" style=""></a></p><p>In its long-awaited IPO, the number two US ride-hailing giant and Uber competitor Lyft, kicked off its initial public offering on March 29, by offering 32.5 million shares to market at $72 per share. </p><p>It was extremely successful and opened its first day on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange at $87.24 - a whopping 21% above its IPO price! By the end of the day, the stock finished 8.7% higher from its listing price, closing at $78.29 - giving the company a market value of around $22.4 billion. </p><p>The surge higher was partly due to the share offering being oversubscribed. But while some investors are keen on investing in Lyft, let's look into the company in more detail and see what the future may hold for this billion dollar company. </p> <h2>Who is Lyft?</h2><p>Lyft is a ride-hailing company which launched in 2012. While it may not be as well known as its competitor Uber, it is the United States' second-largest ride-hailing company. Here are some key essentials to know about the company:</p><ol><li>Lyft's market share in the U.S. is around 29%</li><li>Lyft only operates in the US and Canada at this time</li><li>Lyft completes around 1 million trips per day</li><li>In 2018, they completed 103% more trips than the year before</li><li>Lyft increased their gross bookings by 76% from 2017 to 2018 to $8.1 billion</li></ol><p>Some investors are certainly pleased with these statistics. In fact, some were so pleased the share price surged 21% above its listing price. Admiral Markets offers the chance to <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/about-us/news/trade-lyft-shares">trade Lyft stock</a>, so you can take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. </p> <h2>Should You Invest In The Lyft IPO?</h2><p>While Lyft's growth numbers look impressive, they are still a very young technology startup. The risk with investing in these young companies is the fact that many of them take years to turn a profit, and may continually show large fluctuations in its share price. For example, Tesla's share price has risen wildly, a near 2,000% higher since its IPO in 2010 - yet it still does not make a profit. </p><p>Technology companies are known to aggressively reinvest every cent into growing the company. This is why even after Lyft lost $688 million in 2017 and burned through another $911 million in 2018, institutional investors (the investors of a company before it goes public), valued the company at $15.1 billion in its last funding round before its IPO. </p><p>Tech companies are often valued on the possibility of future growth, which is why a tech company's stock price can rise even though it shows no profit. Of course, not all companies see a rising stock price from their IPOs, so doing your own due diligence and understanding the risks of investing are important. </p> <h2>Will The Lyft IPO Help Grow The Company?</h2><p>One of the main reasons a company offers its shares to the public is to raise capital in order to grow. Through the Lyft IPO on March 29, the company raised $2.34 billion. Investors will be looking for a return on their capital. If future earnings look promising, more investors will join in to help lift the share price. If future earnings do not look good, some investors will jump ship looking for the next best opportunity. </p><p>So what does Lyft have in store for the future? </p><p>Firstly, the company is betting big on autonomous rides. In 2018, Lyft launched its Aptiv fleet, a self-driving service, in Las Vegas. So far they've made over 30,000 trips. Secondly, Lyft is branching out into all forms of urban transport and mobility. In 2018, they bought out the biggest bike-sharing company in the US. However, investors will be keen to see how they can take the fight to Uber. </p> <h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Lyft's IPO is the first of 2019, and could mark the beginning of a historic year for tech IPOs. Many investors are using the Lyft IPO to test their theories and strategies for Uber's $120 billion IPO in April. How are you preparing to trade?</p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/lyft-ipo-booms"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/1fc6f324b8444e9f68d714a970146a2c.png" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading Lyft today!" rel="" style=""></a></a></p><p><em>The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>The analysis is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor) based on personal estimations.</li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li></ol><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks.</em></a>
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<p>It was only a few weeks ago that US president Donald Trump received a classified 'Section 232' national security report submitted by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Having taken 270 days to create, the report - the contents of which have not yet been made public - has American allies and business entities extremely worried.</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-crash-trump-tariffs"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/8a419d1e99d1ab4b2a496f46a01ab996.jpeg"></a></p> <p>Even though Trump has 90 days to decide whether or not to act upon the recommendations, there are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-autos/us-agency-submits-auto-tariff-probe-report-to-white-house-idUSKCN1Q706C" target="_blank">fears</a> that the report contains tariffs of up to 25% on millions of imported cars and parts. These fears have been felt the strongest in Germany, and rightly so. Last year, the United States <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-germany-cars-factbox/factbox-german-exposure-to-us-tariffs-on-european-car-imports-idUKKCN1QB2H1" target="_blank">bought</a> a whopping USD 31 billion worth of German vehicles and car parts. </p> <p>Auto tariffs could wipe out much of Germany's economic growth and even though they are yet to be put in place, it has already affected the DAX 30 stock market index. In this article we explore the fundamental and technical picture of the DAX 30 and whether the index could crash 30% lower this year. </p><p><br></p> <h2>The Biggest Negative Influences On The Dax 30 This Year</h2> <p>As the German economy relies heavily on export manufacturing, its stock market is heavily influenced by global economics. And, with the world currently facing some of the most challenging economic events since the 2008 financial recession, there have been some major influences on the DAX 30 index already this year:</p> <ul><li>Earlier this month, Germany's top economic experts slashed their growth <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/976777bc-4a33-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62" target="_blank">forecast</a> for 2019 from 1.5% to just 0.8%, confirming a significant slowdown in Europe's largest economy. The markets reacted accordingly, selling off from the day of this announcement. </li></ul> <ul><li>China is Germany's third largest customer, yet export orders have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46875113" target="_blank">dropped</a> for that market more than any other in the last six years. While the Asian powerhouse has enjoyed years of aggressive growth and expansion, there have been hints of problems in the last year. This is largely due to a slowdown in domestic spending as well as the current trade war with the United States. </li></ul> <ul><li>Brexit continues to weigh on Europe. While the UK has borne the brunt of its decision to leave the EU, investors have remained cautious with regards to Europe as a whole. The uncertainty surrounding the UK's departure from the EU and the impact this will have remains highly uncertain - especially with European elections later this year. </li></ul> <ul><li>Trump's war on trade. The United States is Germany's largest trading partner. However, Trump has indicated he could impose tariffs of 25% on German cars and parts imported into the US. This would be a huge blow to Germany's economy, and many investors have started to run for the exits. However, as Germany also place tariffs on US car imports there is a possibility of achieving 'middle ground' between them. </li></ul> <p>Analysing the price chart of the DAX 30 index is perhaps the most important type of analysis we can do, as it tells us what traders and investors think about the fundamental news, and most importantly, how they are acting on it. Let's take a look:</p><p><br></p> <h2>Could The Dax 30 Index Drop 30%?</h2> <p>Below is a weekly chart of the DAX 30 Index CFD, which tracks the underlying DAX 30 stock market index:</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-crash-trump-tariffs"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/a3191af3e2d40fd9e0cf7df6e5c82341.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5 Supreme Edition</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/start-trading/contract-specifications/instrument/dax30"><em>DAX 30</em></a><em>, Weekly - Data range: from January 22, 2012, to March 26, 2019, accessed on March 26, 2019, at 12:40pm GMT. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. </em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>It is clear to see the recent sell-off in the index in 2018 due to some of the fears already mentioned above. The DAX 30 has since recovered some of its fall, but now trades at an important level. The red horizontal line indicates a level of <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/the-most-valuable-support-and-resistance-levels-in-forex-cfd-trading">resistance</a> which traders will typically use to initiate short positions, or come out of long positions. </p> <p>The red horizontal line also intersects with the 50 weekly period <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-indicators/exponential-moving-average">moving average</a>. Both of these have already acted as a resistance as sellers have stepped in and pushed the market lower. If the sellers remain in control and push the market down to the historical lows of 2013 it would represent a near 30% decline as highlighted by the yellow box in the monthly chart below:</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-crash-trump-tariffs"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/c969afb6a54417faf8bd3b12bc69a80d.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets MT5 Supreme Edition, DAX 30, Monthly - Data range: from June 1, 2005, to March 26, 2019, accessed on March 26, 2019, at 12:52 pm GMT. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. </em></p><p><em><br></em></p> <p>What is most beneficial when trading around support and resistance levels, is the fact they offer levels for buyers and sellers to lean against. In this instance, sellers have stepped in off the resistance level. If Trump does indeed slap tariffs on German automakers, or the global economy continues in its slow down, lower prices for the DAX 30 index are likely. </p> <p>However, trading and investing is not just about buying or selling. It is also about understanding the possible obstacles that lie ahead. For example, if Trump does not decide to commit to the tariffs, or if global economic growth starts to gain momentum again, then higher prices could be likely for the DAX 30 index. </p> <p>If buyers can break above the red horizontal resistance line in the chart above, then they have overcome the first obstacle and more buyers may decide to step into the market. This is why the current price level of the DAX 30 is being widely watched by traders all over the world. </p><p><br></p> <h2>Conclusion </h2> <p>The DAX 30 index is at an interesting juncture in which buyers or sellers could retain control for an extended period of time. Typically, when the fundamental picture and price action analysis both result in the same outlook, big trends are likely to develop. Are you prepared for it?</p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/dax30-crash-trump-tariffs"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/34055092fc30f39e06161447f1229ef6.png" style="" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!" rel=""></a></a></p> <p><em>The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor) based on personal estimations.</li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li></ol><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks.</em></a>
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