A couple of two-year-old horse races at Beverley, both restricted auction stakes which often go to form horses.
The two divisions are interesting although not the easiest of races to consider for betting opportunities.
2:15 Beverley -
Rod Millman has an interesting juvenile taking part over this 5f sprint in the shape of Betty's Hope, a daughter of Anjaal a bargain buy at just £3,000. This bay filly was no match for Archie Watson's Lady Kermit who showed no signs of greenness at Kempton a couple of weeks back. At this time of year, it is difficult to assess form. The angle here is that Millman's two-year-olds on their second start often go very well. The downside is that they either win or finish unplaced, so if betting, it is probably wise to go for a straight win rather than eachway. In addition, this January foal has a plum draw in stall one. Priced about 7/2, has claims although I will be taking a watching brief unless drifting to bigger odds.
2:50 Beverley -
This second division is worth a second look. Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and his two-year-olds are worthy of respect on their second start. Gin Gembre made his debut at Windsor when finishing a credible fourth of nine. There was some money for this son of Dandy Man, which adds to the idea this February foal has an element of ability. This 4,500 euro foal increased in price at the yearling sales (24,000). It is difficult to assess the form of that race although the winner, Chasanda, trained by David Evans, looks a fair filly beating mostly a field of colts. I was left with the impression that Gim Gembre was pretty fit for his debut and ridden with some gusto. Today's race is pretty weak being pretty restrictive, which, as mentioned, favours, form horses. With valuable racecourse experience and a good draw, this looks a fine opportunity. The price doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I think Gin Gembre has very good claims here but the price would need to drift to tempt me to put my hand in my pocket.
The two-year-old season is slowly gathering pace. It can be a tricky time of the year if you are searching for bets. They are usually very good or very bad. The classic Mark Johnston type of debutante which equates to an easy winner or poor loser.
He has started the season with spirit. A fair winner in Xcelente at Thirsk, and a few others running into places.
A couple of two-year-old races for Monday.
2:30 Windsor - A big old Fillies' Novice Auction Stakes. Most look pretty cheap buys. I see a couple have come in for money.
Archie Watson's Lambeth Walk could well start odds on. He has notched up a few winners with Electric Ladyland, Lady Kermit (who flew home), and another nice prospect in Exclusively who had a battle with Tim Easterby's Iva Go at Redcar, the pair drawing clear of the field. You will notice that all three winners have been priced 4/1 & less SP. Saxon Gate Stable must have a sharp string of juveniles. Watson has done remarkably well with his horses since coming on the training scene in 2016. Last year, saw a smart string of juveniles including Shumookhi, Nate The Great and Soldiers Call. The latter winning four of his eight starts including a Listed, Group 3 & Group 2 (Flying Childers) and narrowly denied at Group 1 when third in the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines in France.
It's very unlikely Lambeth Walk will achieve those dizzy heights but time will tell her story. The stable is in tremendous form with his two-year-olds and they go particularly well when strongly fancied in the betting.
The other horse for money is Tom Dascombe's, Dr Simpson. This bay daughter of Dandy Man has been well backed on the exchanges with a few punters bagging odds as big as 6/1. I noticed someone laid a bet of £1000 at 4.6 (7/2), so there is no lack of optimism and still plenty of people wanting similar odds for good money. His debutantes have decent stats at 7/1 & less SP. They can win at bigger odds too so a very capable trainer who know what it takes to win a race. Dr Simpson will need to be pretty smart to win from the draw (1) unless the going changes or the horses run down the middle of the course or far rail. It is a wide draw with fourteen runners, but a sharp two-year-old can often negate that if speedy enough from the stalls. I must say, it would put me off betting.
I will be taking a watching brief.
2:20 Pontefract -
Sees a seven-horse race with three two-year-olds once raced. Mark Johnston's Alminoor was sent off favourite at Musselburgh and I doubt punters or connections thought they would finish second. Bryan Smart's Proper Beau battled hard and won at odds of 10/1, the duo pulling many lengths clear of the third (who has been beaten since).
Alminoor will start at prohibitive odds (depends how you bet) but looks a tough nut to crack.
Danny Ocean is quite interesting. I would be tempted to have each way bet on this horse if drifting to fair odds (5/1), but rather have three places. This son of Dandy Man was backed on debut at Leicester but pretty clueless, outpaced in the early stages, but ran on well in the closing stages to finish a creditable third. In the ownership of Ontoawinner, Strecker and Burke, he is likely to improve a good deal for that first effort and this stiffer test of stamina will be appreciated. There is a slight concern he will be outpaced in the early stages, but it is often a strength to finish a race at two as many go full throttle and tire at the finish.
To be fair, both the first and second favourites look price to chance. If betting on the exchanges, there may be a chance of getting much better odds on Danny Ocean if Johnston's colt is heavily backed but that is about the only angle I can see to bet.
Richard Fahey has started the season in a similar vein of form to Archie Watson. Show Me Show Me (owned by Ontoawinner) took the Brocklesby Stakes in authoritative style. While Bendy Spirit represented the stable. He showed good pace before tiring markedly in the final furlong to finish ninth. He was priced as though needing the run. Fahey Brocklesby entrant/runners in previous years have been up to winning standard so I can see this son of Helmet running better today. Certainly, that experience will be a positive and the trainer does well at this course.
Those mentioned are worthy of note but unless I see bigger odds available on Danny Ocean I will be taking a watching brief.
One race he targets is the 2019 Brocklesby Stakes race and reviewing this year's declarations for the 4:10 Doncaster (30th March) we see this year may be seventh time lucky.
The first two-year-old contest of the new Flat turf season sees him enter an April foal called Hell Of A Joker, sired by Hellvelyn out of a twice winning mare called Oceanico Dot Com who was in training with Alan Berry. Hell Of A Joker is likely to be heading to Doncaster and if his trainer has anything to do with it, will shine on the day.
Bill Turner has been very successful in the Brocklesby Stakes over the years with six winners including:
Last year, saw him field Arthur's Spirit (in the ownership of loyal patron E A Brook) priced 10/1. He raced prominently but finished down the field in tenth place. However, he won well at Kempton on his third start under an excellent ride by apprentice jockey Jason Watson receiving 7lb.
The Lord was a very smart winner of the Brocklesby Stakes for Bill Turner in 2002 who went on to win the Lily Agnes at Chester. This durable horse ran 68 times, winning 8 times and achieving total prize money of over £100,000 and official rating of 105. The best performance success at Listed class.
Time will tell whether Hell Of A Joker makes the line up on the day of the Brocklesby but you wouldn't bet against Turner fancying his chances to win this race for the seventh time.
Everyone has their Modus Operandi. Well, they probably do even if they think they don't. A set way assessing which horse to bet. Even to the point of betting via traditional bookmakers or exchange.
It is all too easy to think you are betting in a vacuum.
If you bet online, use your iPhone, tablet or old-school and place your wager at Honest Joe's Turf Accountants. I wonder if some old dear has asked how much it would cost to plant a new lawn!
I say a vacuum because in many ways we are alone in this world. Just like Billy Joel's fantastic song Piano Man, where he sings: ''Sharing a drink called loneliness but it's better than drinking alone.''
Betting can feel that way, too. You place your bet as if somehow whatever you do it's a solitary act, no ripple from the pebble you throw.
However, make no mistake, we live in a truly competitive world. Whether you back or lay, it is akin to swimming with a shoal of hungry piranhas. If your bet lacks cunning, understanding of the best way to swim the current, hiding places, it is only a matter of time before they sniff you out. When one bites at your toe, you need to have a master plan to eat the fish that's trying to eat you alive. If one gets a taste, you can guarantee plenty will follow until greedy mouthful by greedy mouthful you drop to the bottom of the tank, river or ocean of bets, a skeleton of wishful thinking, hopes and dreams. Your ultimate goal putting cold, hard cash in your pockets.
As the bookmaker at Great Yarmouth quips: ''Money without work!''
With each and every bet, it is like someone somewhere, is watching your every move, anticipating your mistake.
The collective shoal of piranha doesn't sleep. It smiles at itself in the mirror, using blood-red toothpaste and flosses its immaculate white teeth ready for its grub.
The only way you can defy this killer shoal is to know that little more. To smile back with an understanding which says: ''You fancy trying your luck?''
Without question, knowledge is power.
If someone wants to take your bet you have to question why? When bookmakers are keen to take your bets they are fishing to see if you are a piranha, great white shark or an oily Dover sole. If you are the latter, they will welcome you like a long-lost friend. They may even invite you to one of their corporate dues at the races because you are a ''valued client''. You prop up the bar with a turbot, red snapper, cockney jellied eel and a smoked salmon who loves to chat up the girls.
The story of most people's betting is very similar to a goldfish with a memory span of three seconds. Just long enough to see your horse cross the finishing line - unplaced - to forget long enough to place a bet that longterm is a lifelong loser. So many times people complain about betting as though it is a curse. Funny how people are only up in arms when they lose. In truth, gambling my tempt, be seen as the devil's work, but it is a problem of the person. Without discipline what isn't a potential problem? Alcohol, Anadin, Smoking or whatever fixation embeds itself like a glorious magic leech which at first soothed your mind then addled your brain.
Here is the answer to the question. If you keep betting and losing money isn't there a little voice - let's imagine it is a guppy playing the banjo - that sings The Gambler song: ''Know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to run...''
You may fancy yourself being a great white shark in a small pond. Those piranhas don't scare you. But when the sun gets hotter and the water begins to evaporate, those big teeth, power and attitude mean little as the mudskipper waves goodbye.
Kenny Rogers - The Gambler (Official Music Video) - YouTube
Do you use Betfair for your trading? I was chatting with Eric (Winner) the other day and he was asking about the liquidity of the tennis markets.
So, for instance, the current match I am trading is the Gibbs V Brady match and it is on the lower challenger circuit one below the main WTA circuit and it is not televised apart from online and so far there is around £215,000 matched and as an example I laid Brady at 1.46 for a £50 liability then laid again at 1.18 for the same liability to bring the average lay price down to 1.27 and now she is back to 1.66 so I am able to take out my red (liability) and either equalise my profit on either player or leave the profit on Gibbs and slowly take a bit out at a time. Meanwhile, in the German Bundesliga football, I have currently laid under 2.5 goals in the Holsten Kiel V Union Berlin game and will be looking at the laying the current score in the Duisburg V Magdeburg match if the price hits around 1.70 So as you can see it is quite difficult explaining the on a match preview!
Yes, it is difficult to put into words, hey.
I generally bet each on the horses, win and place, although it depends on the horse and circumstance. I usually put my bet up before the race at half the odds just in case it is substantially backed to have a decent no-lose bet.
In running, I put my potential win up at 1.11, as an insurance policy just in case it goes close but gets beat. Long term there probably isn't a good reason for this but short term it seems to make sense as to help smooth the way. Nothing worse than having a bet go really short in play and losing. However, there is no right or wrong way of doing most things just a matter of opinion. If there is a profit at the end of the season it is working although there is always room for improvement and why assessments need to be made on all these aspects.
The only exception to this rule is if I bet on a huge priced horse. I've had some I take a speculative punt at 200- 300/1. Those I stick a few thousand up in running at 1/1 and less just to make the most if they go close and lose.
Interesting to hear how you work.
Yes it is interesting as everyone can trade in a different way and it is finding what is right for you and that is the key, so in terms of tennis I am quite aggressive in my trades but in terms of football I always reduce my liability as soon as I can as I have learned that a very important part for me is protecting my bank and without it there is no trading!
You know why people have a fascination with gambling?
Because they think it's easy money.
I can tell you now if you honestly think you are going to win at gambling by sheer, blind luck then you are correct, it can happen.
People looking at websites such as Online Casino Deutschland for all the latest free bets, spins and bonuses. They are like the majority of gamblers hoping they will hit the jackpot.
We've all seen people winning the lottery. Sure, there is some lucky bloke round the corner from your old grans who needed a larger cheque because they couldn't fit all those zeros.
The old dear who walked into Tescos and got a scratch card and won a million as she was tucking into a pie.
Have you ever seen lady luck? Do you know what she looks like, what she wears or her favourite perfume?
I have this image in mind. She has the style of Coco Channel, her perfume comes from one of those giant bottles you only see in boutique stores. Perfect hair with a flash of purple in the front (pictured, Lady Luck at Great Yarmouth Casino). Without question, she is a beautiful lady. If she brushes past you while buying a scratch card from W H Smiths you will notice that look, touch and sweet, heavenly smell. She is fleeting like willow the wisp, often brushing past one to favour another with a smile on her face. She turns those waiting in line to green-eyed monsters while those she touches feel like a million dollars even if they only get three bells come up on the fruit machine.
While she is in your presence she is a queen. As she walks past with her head held high, she's a bitch.
Lady luck will visit everyone at some point in their life. She is only surpassed by skill or knowledge but even then she may make someone a fortune without a moments thought.
The next time you are about to place a bet, buy a scratch card or play at the casino, stop for a moment, look around and see if she is waiting in the wings. If she comes closer, place a bet because this may be your lucky day.
It takes as little time as scribbling out a betting slip: time, meeting, horse's name and stake. How simple was that? ''I don't see what all the fuss is about. It's as easy as ABC...''
However, the question we need to ask those individuals is: ''Does your betting pay?''.
If it does, then you don't need to read anything else because you've cracked it. Perhaps you've gone one step beyond and have a bot placing bets and making a passive income. You travel from country to country only checking your betting account to see how much money you've won!
Sadly, for most people, this is a dream...
Very few winners in life get there by knowing less. How can you know less but make more? I don't think it is possible unless you have some strange theory using quantum physics.
If you wrote a diary of the process of making a betting selection, what would it reveal? I mean, are we talking about something that could be written on the back of a stamp or enough chapters to write a book? From individual to individual both of those examples are true. However, which one of the two extremes would you like to receive a tip?
Unless you have a strange fetish for losing money, I imagine it would be the latter. So, in the main, we appreciate that being successful takes time.
Discipline is one of many aspects of being successful. You don't see anyone in the army lacking discipline. It is the foundation of being productive and achieving a goal. Successful betting is the same. As I have said many times, you don't wake up one morning to find you are a professional gambler. If you considered that possibility, I would assess that the individual is a professional fool. I know a lot of people associate being a professional gambler with the definition: betting lots of money on short-priced horses. I've seen it myself. Funny how those people are now doing a 9 - 5 job. I don't say that trying to rub salt into their wounds.
We are simply dealing with facts.
From my years of betting I have realised how important discipline is to successful gambling.
In many respects, it is about knowing the answer to a question rather than making a knee-jerk reaction. It can be something as simple as being prepared for an upcoming race whether that day, next week or later that year. It may be having a guide in place which says unless there is an exceptional reason, don't bet odds-on. While your pre-season research details that a given trainer has very little chance of winning if priced over a certain price when racing on debut.
If I wrote down every aspect of discipline when making an assessment whether to bet or not it would be a complex, fascinating and ''boring'' read.
That discipline doesn't end with the placing of the bet. Because there may be reasons why I bet more or lay off the bet.
The guiding principle of discipline is that long term it will bring greater understanding, opportunity and winning (or making money).
I have known people who have bet all their life and they would read these words and think it is mumbo jumbo. ''Who needs that? What a waste of time? I just write out my bets, job done!''
Sadly, unless they have something very unusual going on, they lose on a regular basis. In a world of competition, you do not need to be the best just one step ahead of the majority leads to success.
The leading two-year-olds in Australia will descend upon Caulfield to battle it out for the $1.5 million Blue Diamond Stakes on February 23. It is the biggest race in the Melbourne Autumn Carnival and the second richest race of the year for two-year-olds, so it always attracts a strong field. The Blue Diamond Stakes is a Group 1 contest, so it also carries huge amounts of prestige, ensuring a large group of colts and fillies will compete. This 1200m race always attracts significant early betting interest, so it is worth assessing recent trends and looking at the leading contenders for glory.
Last year, unbeaten colt Written By romped to victory in the Blue Diamond Stakes with a supremely dominant performance. He defied a wide barrier to outstrip all his rivals, finishing two and a half lengths clear of the previously undefeated Magnus filly Enbihaar. It marked a first Group 1 victory for promising young jockey Jordan Childs, whose father Greg won this race back in 1992 on Bart Cummings’ Riva Diva.
Greg Childs used to ride for Hall of Fame trainer Neville Begg in Hong Kong. Begg, who is now 88, breeds horses and he owns Written By. He was also a proud father on that day as his son, Grahame, trained Written By and that victory completed a fantastic comeback for the former Randwick star. Graham Begg had been an outstanding trainer in his own right until 2014, when he decided to take a break from racing, before reappearing in Victoria to try to reignite his career. The Blue Diamond Stakes was his first Group 1 victory since 2011. Both fathers watched the race at their homes and they were jumping for joy when Written By stormed past the post. “When I was growing up and coming through the ranks, all I wanted to do was to ride on the big days and win Group 1 races,” said Childs. “Neville and Grahame Begg are from a great racing family, so to be able to ride for them is a great thrill. I can’t thank them enough.” The punters were also delighted, as Written By was backed from $11 all the way in to $5.50 favourite. He went on to win the Rosehill Gardens and the Blue Sapphire Stakes and he remains full of promise.
Favourites have a reasonably good record at the Blue Diamond Stakes, securing victory 11 times in the last 35 years. In that time, 24 have placed, so each-way bets can be popular on the favourite and punters would at least break even if it places. In the past two decades, just six winners have had double-figure prices. The shortest priced favourite was Sepoy at $1.40, who duly delivered by winning in style, while Written By was actually the longest priced favourite at $5.50.
Since 1983, barrier 5 has been the most successful, yielding five winners. The least successful barriers are 12, 13, 14 and 17, as only one winner apiece has come from them. Written By was in barrier 14, which had never previously yielded a winner, but he defied a trend that sees runners in wide barriers struggle. Since 2000, colts have secured 11 wins compared to seven for fillies. The Blue Diamond winner almost always comes from two Blue Diamond Preludes, one for colts and one for fillies, which are run a fortnight before the big race. The last 12 winners of this race finished either first or second in their previous run.
It is an extremely prestigious race and notable past winners include Catchy, Star Witness and Bel Esprit, along with Sepoy. Many victors of the Blue Diamond Stakes go on to enjoy very successful careers and interest is always high among punters. The current favourite for this year’s renewal is Brooklyn Hustle, who leads the way with the major bookmakers featured at Punters. Jason Warren’s filly raised eyebrows with a superb performance when surging to victory at The Valley in Melbourne on December 1. “I’m confident we’ve got the right horse,” said Warren. And she’s set for that race. “She’s not set for the Prelude. She’s set for the Blue Diamond. “She’s going to trial next Thursday and then she will go into the Prelude. Fingers crossed we can keep her in one piece. She looks super.”
Yet the field looks extremely competitive and Catch Me delivered a great showing when winning by a length in a Blue Diamond trial on Saturday. She was given no favours in the run, finding herself trapped wide throughout, but she displayed excellent temperament and an impressive turn of pace to go on and clinch victory. I Am Immortal also sparkled and the price on him dropped after he stormed to a powerful victory at Caulfield on the same day.
The likes of Tassort, Yes Yes Yes, Exhilarates, Jedastar and Athiri have all shown a lot of promise too, so it promises to be a ferociously competitive race. Be sure to look out for the preludes on February 9 as they will cause the odds to shift dramatically, and they should give strong clues as to who will triumph in the big race two weeks later.
The phrase is historically related to horse riding, or driving a horse-drawn vehicle. A number of explanations, all unverified, have been offered for the origins of the phrase, dating back to usage in Ancient Greece.
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Far from the biggest loser in financial term but a man many people would love to see lose his shirt rather than his ill-fated workers. Most of the world have heard about Robert Maxwell with his infamous use of workers' pensions. Easy come easy go for the late Maxwell when we went to a casino in Mayfair, London and lost £1.5 million in a matter of minutes when a few spins on the roulette table went wrong.
It may seem a quiet time for blog updates. However, you couldn't further form the truth. It would be nice to sit with my feet up and just wait for the new season to arrive wrapped up in a bow.
I can imagine a lot of readers think my life is one of luxury and bundles of cash. It's all relative, hey. I feel very lucky to live a life of my choice and 'working' in a professional which I enjoy. It has taken a long time to get to this point of being able to make horse racing my business. I run a number of websites [like this one] and betting. In the future, I will be selling more products. But that depends on how these next few seasons go. The problem with selling winning information is that it needs to cost a lot of money to make me want to divulge. If I can make you money, how much is that knowledge worth? When you consider banks don't even give away a per cent or two for vast sums of money when someone can make you money - they need to be paid well.
I don't work cheap because I don't need to. To be fair, anything of true worth is worth good money. People don't respect something that is cheap. True, primary information, is literally worth its weight in gold.
I have paid $800 dollar for a course on blogging. I've paid £250 for a piece of horse racing information that I never used. I paid the price because I respect that good information costs real wonga because it gives a return.
Anyway, I'm waffling as usual.
I have been very busy - still - working on my horse trainer statistics. I'm sure there is software out there which makes life easier but I kind of like to work hands on so I can see the trainer, horses, season, winners, losers, and work out what the hell is going on. I'm not going to give any info here and now but I can tell you researching data is worth the time and effort.
I studied Michael Dods the other day. Well, it must have taken a few days in all. He is a very interesting trainer simply because he can win with horses at big odds. It is like following a seam of gold. Find the answer to a question and you can find information that fills your pockets with cash. Sounds good, hey? Anyway, I have just about concluded my research for this one of many trainers. I don't like to think about all the trainers yet to come but they will be completed one after another.
The information is just one part of the jigsaw puzzle which helps find winners. It is about looking in the right direction. To polish the stone of knowledge until it gleams with diamond-like qualities.
A lucky few people will be able to share the best of my information this season. It will be an exciting journey that many will wish they could follow. Perhaps that will happen in the future. It will be a product that will need substantial investment. In hard times the price of gold goes up. The opportunities to join us will be similarly scarce.