Bitcoin price rallied above the $6,600 and $6,700 resistances and later reversed gains against the US Dollar.
There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $6,310 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
Tether (USDT) pairs rallied above the $7,000 and $7,500, but later trimmed most of its gains.
Bitcoin price broke the $6,700 resistance, but it failed to hold gains against the US Dollar. BTC/USD is back to $6,400 and it is currently under pressure.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
There was a major sell-off noted for Tether (USDT) pairs, which ignited an upward move in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair also gained traction and moved above the 6,600 and $6,700 resistance levels. Earlier, there was a decent support base formed near the $6,150 level. The price started an upward move above the $6,300 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
The upside move was strong as the price broke an ascending channel with resistance at $6,300. Moreover, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $6,310 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair rallied towards the $6,800 level and traded as low as $6,825. Sellers appeared and protected further upsides above $6,825. Later, there was a sharp reversal and the price trimmed most of its gains below $6,600. It even broke the $6,500 level and it is currently testing $6,400. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent run from the $6,152 low to $6,825 high is also acting as a support.
Looking at the chart, bitcoin price faced most of its gains above $6,600. This seems like a false break caused by Tether unwinding. Going forward, there could be range moves above $6,300 before the next leg.
Looking at the technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is placed in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently above the 50 level.
Since Bitcoin found a foothold in the $6,200-$6,800 range in early-August, crypto traders have been doing their best to discern where this unpredictable market will head next. But, with positive crypto-centric news becoming commonplace, there has been an unprecedented number of investors, commentators, and industry leaders that have foreseen a bottom in the tumultuous cryptocurrency market.
“Last Dip Ever”
AngeloBTC, a well-followed cryptocurrency commentator and analyst, recently broke his one-month-long Twitter hiatus to claim that Bitcoin was seeing its “last dip ever,” alluding to the well-read theory that crypto assets are finally starting to undergo a bottoming phase.
Although some claimed that his bullish call was fueled by hope, and nothing more, the fact that such a prominent trader made this prediction comforted thousands of his 124,000 Twitter followers. While Angelo, who was BitMEX’s top trader by volume in early-2018, failed to rationalize his call with technical and fundamental indicators, there has been a multitude of industry leaders that have done that job for him.
Mike Novogratz, a former Wall Street guru turned crypto diehard, revived his dust-ridden Twitter page in early-September to claim that this market “put in a low.” Clearly tapping into his knowledge of traditional capital markets, the Galaxy Digital CEO explained that markets of any variety “like to retrace to the breakout.” So, seeing that crypto assets essentially “retraced the whole of the bubble,” Novogratz claimed that a reversal to the upside is imminent.
Image Courtesy of Mike Novogratz/Bloomberg
While critics of this theory may point out that the chart Novogratz highlighted is now one-month outdated, his point is still as valid as ever. One week after he issued his “#callingabottom” tweet, Novogratz took to CNBC Fast Money to highlight the other side of the coin — fundamental indicators.
Although his appearance on CNBC stretched out to a painstaking 11 minutes, a theme was consistent throughout his comments, which was that institutions are poised to allocate capital to the cryptocurrency market, adding that “institutional FOMO” is proverbially right around the corner.
Since then, however, Novogratz has since retracted some of his short-term price predictions. But, investors shouldn’t be wary, as other industry leaders picked up right where the CEO left off. Long-time Bitcoin proponent Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told his clients that $1,900 per Ether by year’s end is a likely scenario. Despite not explicitly stating it, it is likely that Lee also believes that his $25,000 Bitcoin prediction is still in the cards as well.
Crypto News Cycle Turns Positive, “Kindling” For The Next Bonfire
Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart also had bullish sentiment to tout, recently claiming that while patience is essential, the long-awaited bottom is within this industry’s grasp. Giving his forecast some credence, Bogart explained that the positive developments the crypto market has undergone in the past few months will be “kindling” for crypto’s next bonfire, or growth cycle in other words.
And, as seen by the recent news cycle, this industry has undoubtedly seen its fair share of fundamental developments that will only better the experience for institutional and retail participants.
Bakkt, a cryptocurrency platform aimed at revolutionizing how institutions, retail investors, and merchants interact with this industry, is slated to launch its first product in November. If the launch of its physically-backed futures products goes according to plan, the platform, which has been formally backed by the Intercontinental Exchange, Microsoft, and Starbucks, will only increase the adoption and real-world use of crypto assets.
In a bid to seemingly undermine Bakkt’s launch or to hop on the gravy train, American banking giant TD Ameritrade joined hands with ErisX, which will reportedly offer Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash futures by Q2 of 2019. Some argue that ErisX is even more bullish than Bakkt, as its futures vehicle will immediately be available to TD Ameritrade’s 11 million consumers upon launch.
Not only have multinational corporations forayed into crypto through partnerships, but Wall Street giants are willing to gain a vested interest in this budding space through the establishment of crypto-focused products and services. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, for example, all recently began work on offering Bitcoin derivative swaps to their clients, which will allow these firms to bring crypto trading to the mainstream.
It is important to note that the aforementioned developments are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to positive crypto news. So make no mistake, despite the dismal performance of the market, this industry is far from dead in the water.
Although the fundamental indicators are signaling crypto’s biggest bull run to-date, as pointed out by Joseph Young, the lack of volume is still one hurdle the crypto market needs to clear before a bull run is all but confirmed.
Bitcoin and crypto market waiting for 1 thing
1. Final shakeout 2. Positive developments (Bakkt, Custody, Banks) 3. Months of stability Bitcoin at $6,200 ~ $6,800 range since August 9 4. Lower highs since January bottoming out with record low volatility 5. Volume
ADA price formed a decent support near the $0.0700 level and rallied recently against the US Dollar (tethered).
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $0.0802 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data feed via Bittrex).
The pair is placed nicely in a positive zone and it could move further towards $0.0880 and $0.0900.
Cardano price jumped back in a positive zone against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ADA/USD is likely to accelerate gains towards the $0.0900 resistance.
Cardano Price Analysis
After a downside move below the $0.0800 level, cardano price found support against the US Dollar. The ADA/USD pair formed a decent support base near the $0.0700 level and later started an upside move. There was a sharp upward move and the price broke the $0.0750 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last decline from the $0.0886 high to $0.0694 low.
It opened the doors for more gains above the $0.0800 level. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $0.0802 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. The pair rallied further and traded above the $0.0810 level. There was a test of the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the last decline from the $0.0886 high to $0.0694 low. The current price action is positive above the $0.0800 level and there could be more gains. On the upside, the price is facing a tough resistance near the $0.0880 and $0.0900 levels. A break above these may well open the doors for a push towards $0.1000.
The chart indicates that ADA price recovered nicely from the $0.0700 support base. If there is a downside correction, the $0.0750 level is likely to protected losses.
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is back in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ADA/USD is moving higher towards the 80 level.
Ripple price rallied recently and broke the $0.4200-0.4300 resistance against the US dollar.
There was a break above two key bearish trend lines with resistance near $0.4200 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair cleared the all-important $0.4200 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
Ripple price is rallying sharply against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. XRP/USD may continue to move higher as long as it is above $0.4200 and $0.4300.
Ripple Price Analysis
After dropping towards the $0.3500 level, Ripple price started an upside correction against the US Dollar. The XRP/USD pair traded above the $0.4000 and $0.4200 levels. Intermediately, buyers struggled to push the price above the $0.4400 level. A high was formed at $0.4394 and later the price stated a fresh decline. It declined below $0.4200 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.3609 low to $0.4394 high.
Later, the price tested the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.3609 low to $0.4394 high. Finally, the price started a solid upward move and broke the $0.4200 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA. The upside move was very strong as the price even cleared the $0.4250 hurdles. More importantly, there was a break above two key bearish trend lines with resistance near $0.4200 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The pair gained traction for a run towards the $0.4600 level and it is currently placed nicely above the $0.4200 pivot level.
Looking at the chart, ripple price needs to settle above the $0.4400 level for more gains. The current market sentiment is very positive above $0.4150, and there could be more upsides towards $0.4650 and $0.4700. On the downside, key supports are near $0.4350, $0.4250 and $0.4200.
Looking at the technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is well below the 60 level.
The crypto market and Bitcoin investors were in for a shock on Monday morning, as Tether, a self-proclaimed “stablecoin,” fell 6% below its U.S. Dollar (USD) peg amid a growing sense of confusion within the cryptosphere.
Tether, Bitfinex Worries Plague Crypto Market
During the wee hours of Monday morning, crypto assets saw a strong, but suspicious move to the upside, even though volumes continued to dwindle. As users took to internet sleuthing to determine the catalyst behind this influx, it immediately became clear that something was amok.
More specifically, Bitcoin somehow eclipsed $7,200 on Bitfinex, Kraken, Binance, and OKEx, which are all platforms that support USDT, while Bitcoin only moved a tad above $6,700 on non-Tether-enabled platforms.
To add to the confusion, Tether, which has held its $1.00 value for months on end, fell 6% below its normal rate, further supporting the theory that something wasn’t right with this latest spurt of price action.
Alex Kruger, a respected market analyst, acknowledged this questionable market behavior, taking to Twitter to convey his thoughts on the situation. Kruger first highlighted the price disparity between Coinbase and Bitfinex, which reportedly holds close ties to the Tether Foundation.
At one point, as pointed out by the analyst, the price spread between the value of Ethereum on Bitfinex and Coinbase surpassed 10%, which is nearly unheard of in the nascent crypto market.
Some wild move on crypto. 10% spread on $ETH between Bitfinex and Coinbase.
Rationalizing this unreasonable spread, Kruger quickly pointed a finger at Tether, as the supposed stablecoin fell under $0.96, while crypto assets rose across the board. This, of course, indicates that traders believe that Tether may not have the USD reserves to back all USDT in circulation, resulting in a capital flight from the stablecoin to traditional crypto assets.
And while USDT is one of the most liquid crypto assets in this market, the order books of the BTC/USDT trading pair couldn’t handle this unprecedented liquidation, resulting in Bitcoin’s unrelenting move above $7,000 on Tether-enabled platforms.
The New York-based trader corroborated this theory, issuing the following comment:
“USDT crashing, 0.94 handle, helping to push all cryptos higher… It would be quite an irony if a Tether collapse would send bitcoin out of this bear market.”
Kruger later brought clarity his aforementioned comment, noting that this 10% price surge was solely catalyzed by the USDT sell-off.
Bitfinex, which was recently subject to a multitude of bank account scares, is slated to give an update on its banking situation within the next week, which should restore trust in the exchange and Tether, which have both been rumored to be insolvent and fraudulent on multiple occasions.
Keeping this in mind, unless USDT continues to somehow capitulate at a breakneck rate, it is unlikely that this irrational price action will be sustained for an extended period of time.
To improve crypto-to-fiat liquidity in India amidst an ongoing banking ban, Indian exchanges are finding methods that could function inside the grey areas of law.
Unocoin in its latest announcement revealed its plan to launch a network of Bitcoin ATMs across India. The Bengaluru-based crypto exchange, which has been in the field since 2013 and currently boasts a 1.2 million customer-base, already introduced one crypto trading kiosk in its hometown. It enables users to exchange Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin for cash – and vice versa.
Decorated Bitcoin ATM in Bengaluru, India
The use of cash within the crypto trading framework is not new. In the wake of the RBI ban, people have already switched to p2p and unregulated over-the-counter trading to bypass the online banking limitations. Not only the method has resulted in the birth of unregistered garage exchanges, but it has also simplified the use of digital currencies in illegal activities, such as money laundering.
Unocoin, on the other hand, is attempting to work within the legal framework. The exchange has confirmed that it would impose the current cash handling restriction as per the guidelines issued by the central bank post demonetization.
“Users are subject to some limits on deposits and withdrawals per transaction and per day subject to cash handling restrictions in India,” Uncoin explained. “The minimum amount for deposits and withdrawals is 1,000 rupees (~$13.50) and must be in multiples of 500 rupees.”
On Banking Relationships
Unocoin clarified that their ATM network would function as a standalone project which doesn’t require banking partnerships like other ATMs. It will remove the project from the purview of RBI ban that bars regulated banks to conduct businesses with crypto companies. That said, the exchange would keep inserting cash bills into the machine on a daily basis, and customers will also be liable to dispense and withdraw funds in INR cash only.
Given that users would require to use their registered Unocoin addresses for trading, in compliance with India’s KYC/AML laws, it is unclear if they would be breaking the law or not. In the wake of RBI ban, which targets only Bitcoin companies, a standalone person trading Bitcoin for cash under a detectable scenario could still be a little riskier – if not entirely – than trading p2p.
Crypto Demand in India Unaffected
Indian Bitcoin community remains unaffected by the RBI ban, proves the local exchanges’ continuous efforts to bypass the regulation and offer them alternatives to trade. It is similar to what the industry has witnessed in China and Russia: people deflecting from the restrictions and going p2p to conduct their day-to-day crypto trades.
A survey, titled “Global Cryptocurrency Survey,” released by a German research company also found India at the fourth spot in people trading cryptocurrencies, falling behind three countries – the US, the UK, and Japan, where trading Bitcoin is not illegal. The survey was published after the RBI ban.
ETH price finally gained momentum and broke the $197 resistance against the US Dollar.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $197 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair is now placed nicely above the $197 and $200 resistance levels.
Ethereum price gained momentum recently against the US Dollar and bitcoin. ETH/USD is now placed for more gains above the $197, $198 and $200 resistance levels.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Recently, there was a minor upside move from the $184 swing low in ETH price against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair traded above the $190 and $192 resistance levels. However, the upside move was capped by the $199-200 area. The price failed to break the $200 zone and slowly turned south. It declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $184 low to $199 high.
However, buyers appeared near the $188-190 area. Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $184 low to $199 high also acted as a support. Later, the price jumped higher and moved above the $190 and $197 resistance levels with a positive angle. More importantly, the price surpassed a strong resistance near the $200 level. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $197 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Above the trend line, the 100 hourly simple moving average was beached near the $199 level. Therefore, a break and close above the $199-200 zone is a positive zone.
Looking at the chart, ETH price seems to be gaining pace above $197. As long as there is no false break above the $200 handle and the 100 hourly SMA, there are chances of more upsides. On the upsides, the next resistances are at $207 and $210.
Hourly MACD – The MACD is moving in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI currently near the 60 level with a bearish angle.
Bitcoin cash price failed to recover above the $440 and $450 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
There is a connecting bearish trend line in place with resistance at $444 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could decline below $420 if it continues to struggle near the $440-450 zone.
Bitcoin cash price is facing a tough barrier at $450 against the US Dollar. BCH/USD may consolidate between $420-450 before it makes the next move.
Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis
Recently, there was a minor upside correction above the $430 level in bitcoin cash price against the US Dollar. The BCH/USD pair traded above the $440 level as well. Moreover, there was a slight upward move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $515 high to $422 low. However, the price failed to gain pace above the $445 and $450 levels.
There was also no proper close above the $440 level as the price struggled near the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line in place with resistance at $444 on the hourly chart of the BCH/USD pair. The pair is trading well below the $450 resistance and the 100 hourly SMA, which is a bearish sign. On the downside, the price remains at a risk of a break below $420 and $410. Below these, the price may perhaps test the $400 handle.
Looking at the chart, BCH price seems to be trading in a range above $420. The next break could be either above $450 or below $420 in the near term. Above $450, the price may possibly correct towards the $468 level. It represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $515 high to $422 low.
Looking at the technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is slowly moving in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BCH/USD is well below the 40 level.
Bitcoin price tumbled down to the bottom of its long-term triangle but bulls keep buying on dips.
Support continues to hold so another test of the resistance at $6,600 could take place.
Technical indicators, however, are giving mixed signals on whether support might keep holding or not.
Bitcoin price has bounced off the bottom of its triangle once more and is setting its sights on the top.
Technical Indicators Signals
The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame to hint that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal that bearish momentum is slowing.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and might be ready to pull up, indicating a return in bullish pressure. This could be enough to take price back up to the top of the triangle, which is right around the 50 SMA dynamic inflection point. RSI is also starting to turn higher to signal that buyers are ready to regain control.
BTCUSD Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price is trying to keep its head afloat after the recent selloff as a break below this level could pave the way for a prolonged slide. Note that the chart pattern spans around $6,000 to $10,000 so the resulting slide on a breakdown could be of the same height.
Bulls have repeatedly defended this area as a number of investors are buying on dips. Some say, however, that only HODL-ers are in the game at this point, as the lower highs of bitcoin price also reflect increased selling pressure.
Still, there are a few things to look forward to, including a much-anticipated rebound before the end of the year. Some believe that this could be spurred by an approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC but recent regulatory updates haven’t been so positive.
Monday markets are looking red; XRP and Dash sliding, Tron and Tezos holding ground.
Monday morning in Asia is a red one in crypto land as markets slide further back. There have been no more major selloffs, however, and losses are marginal. Total market capitalization is still in the $200 billion range.
Bitcoin has not moved for the past four days and is still holding support at just below $6,300. BTC has dictated the flow of the rest of the market enough times this year and it seems to still be doing so as there is little movement elsewhere at the moment. Ethereum has weakened further, dropping back to $195 as ETH loses another 2% on the day.
The altcoins are all red at the moment dropping a percent or two from yesterday’s levels. In the top ten XRP, Stellar and Cardano have fallen the furthest losing around 2-3 percent on the day. The rest are down between one and two percent at the moment.
The top twenty shows a similar situation with Dash making the biggest drop of 3% to reach $156. The other alts are down 0-2 percent right now. Tron and Tezos are holding steady with no further losses.
As usual there is a daily pump going on and at the moment it is Komodo which is up 13% to $1.13. New wallets and updates continue to flow from the team but like all other cryptocurrencies KMD is still painfully low. Komodo is level on the week but up 12% since the same time last month.
At the red end of the table in the top one hundred is Nexo dropping 10%, and yesterday’s pump, Digitex Futures, is predictably dumping today falling 7%. Loom Network and Aion are also sliding 6-7 percent on the day.
Total crypto market capitalization has fallen a further one percent during Asian trading this morning. Markets fell back to $198 billion but have recovered a little to climb back over $200 billion at the moment. Since last Monday crypto markets have lost 8%, and since the same time last month they are pretty much at the same level. Crypto markets have been at this bottom for around two months now, the longest inactive period since last year.
Bitcoin dominance has gradually increased again and is now at 54.4% as altcoins get dumped and only hardcore hodlers remain in the game.
FOMO Moments is a section that takes a daily look at the top 20 altcoins during the current trading session and analyses the best performing ones, looking for trends and possible fundamentals.