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Here are two interesting and similar trading setups which help positional traders in spotting very high probability and very high risk-reward ratio using market profile. this tutorial explains how to understand the context of High probability trend exhaustion using short-term inventory conditions and the exponential trading odds with lower risk trade setups.

[Currently, this tutorial access is limited to TradeZilla members only]

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The post [Premium] : How to Spot High Probability Market Profile Trade Setups – [Part 3] appeared first on Marketcalls.

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See which data set helped traders stay in front of REGN’s late 2017-early 2018 crash By Elliott Wave International

According to a June 26 Fortune Magazine article, New York-based bio tech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the “100 Best Places for Millennials to Work” in the world. Shares one of Regeneron’s employees:

“The thing I love about working at Regeneron is that when they say data is king, they mean it. Our work and projects are always changing based on what the data shows us.”

We hear the same expression bandied about Wall Street; data is king to determining a market’s price trend, with the long-reigning monarch of that data being earnings reports.

All hail earnings reports? Not so fast!

Our very own senior analyst and long-reigning Trader’s Classroom instructor Jeffrey Kennedy admits to the “seductive nature” of earnings data, tempting investors into a false sense of confidence regarding future price action. But there’s a danger in such logic, as Jeffrey explains:

“My own experience trading earnings reports has been hit or miss. At the very least, it’s been frustrating because there have been times when the earnings report will be positive, and the stock price will decline — or vice a versa.”

Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 20-minute video, “4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades.” In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. Learn more now.

You’ve seen this happen too, I’m sure. So, why does it happen?

Because it’s not the hard data inside the earnings report that drives prices. It’s how the market participants interpret that data. And their interpretation depends on the current trend in market psychology. But hold on, let’s let Jeffrey explain more.

Over the course of his career as a technical market analyst and trading instructor, Jeffrey has relied on another form of data to determine the most “watch-worthy” issues: Elliott wave analysis. For Jeffrey, there are three main requirements for a high-confidence trade set-up:

  • A Clear Trend: Jeffrey explains: “The first thing I want to identify on a market’s price chart is the trend.” Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, whereas lower highs and lower lows suggest a downtrend at play.
  • A Recognizable Wave Pattern: Jeffrey is emphatic: “If you can’t count [the Elliott wave subdivisions inside a price move], don’t trade it.” He sticks to the five core Elliott wave patterns: impulse wave, ending diagonal, zigzag, flat, and triangle.
  • A Clue to Price Personality: Slow and choppy price action contained within parallel lines indicates countertrend action — i.e., a correction. Conversely, when prices move far and fast, and especially if you see a price gap on the chart, this indicates the so-called impulse waves — i.e., the direction of the larger trend.

Now let’s see how Jeffrey uses this Elliott wave data to interpret real-world price charts. One market that’s fresh on the brain is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN).

Our first mention of REGN comes from Jeffrey’s October 19, 2017 Trader’s Classroom video lesson. See why Elliott waves called for REGN to step off a sharp bearish cliff to new lows. Simply press “play” and enjoy:

Here’s a close-up of Jeffrey’s chart of REGN along with a recap of his overall forecast:

“The weight of evidence… would argue for a move to the downside.”

The next chart shows you how closely REGN’s prices followed Jeffrey’s October 19 Trader’s Classroom Elliott wave script: They collapsed 35% to a four-year low.

And yes – prices fell DESPITE one of the most glowing earnings reports in the biotech company’s history.

You read that right! On November 8, 2017, Regeneron published its Q3 2017 earnings, which showed “street-topping revenue” that “crushed” expectations with a 27.5% increase in adjusted income per share and a 23% increase in sales versus year ago period. (Investor’s Business Journal)

The failure of a positive earnings report to stem the market’s decline and fuel a rally is exactly the “hit or miss” nature of the earnings beast Jeffrey spoke about.

By contrast, Elliott wave analysis steered a clear, objective course that proved invaluable to traders and investors.

And while Elliott wave data enabled Jeffrey to anticipate the larger trend unfolding on Regeneron’s weekly price chart, it also facilitated a strong assessment of the market’s near-term prospects in his more recent, June 26, 2018 Trader’s Classroom video lesson.

There, Jeffrey “moved down to a smaller, 60-minute time frame to examine the smaller Elliott wave substructure.” The chart, pictured below showed that a large move up was on tap.

And here’s what happened next:

In the same June 26 Trader’s Classroom video lesson, Jeffrey also revisits REGN’s larger trend, to answer the question:

“Is there sufficient evidence in place that the selloff from the 2017 high is complete?”

In the video, Jeffrey examines the data at hand and comes up with a strong case for one kind of move in the weeks and months ahead.

While not every Elliott wave forecast works out, the value of Elliott wave analysis is clear from this real-world example — and from every Trader’s Classroom lesson Jeffrey records for his subscribers.

Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 20-minute video, “4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades.” In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. Learn more now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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The post Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Starting your own algo trading can be both rewarding and challenging at the same time. The joy of starting something on your own and keeps growing and trading on its own with a set of trading rules and zero human intervention is something that most of the traders love to have it.

However, the road to success when comes to algo trading is definitely not an easy one. There can be a gazillion different things that can go wrong. And innumerable hurdles might keep coming your way. Here are some of the most common mistakes that algo traders make that you should avoid.

Not conducting adequate trading research

Most of the traders approach algo trading without doing enough homework. They try to get a strategy from the market and without backtesting or backtesting with minimal data points they take the trading strategy Go Live as the strategy is visually appealing.

Some traders even do backtest only for 2months or 6 months of backtest results and get mesmerized by the trading results. In reality, even 6 months of backtesting doesn’t cover all the market scenarios (sideways markets, trading markets, highly volatile markets, tightly compressed irritating markets, markets with big gap up , gap down & major events days).

Take Strategies to live without passing  Montecarlo analysis & slippage modelling is again a wrong approach.

Know your Algo Trading Software

Know the nuances and operations of your algo trading software. For Example, if you are an Amibroker user and algo trading is on then minimizing Amibroker software might not trigger orders unless are aware of the workaround procedure. In Amibroker chart are refreshed only when they are placed on the active chart sheets so that CPU resources are not wasted on invisible chart sheets.

So mistakenly an algo trader could minimize his amibroker screen or study some other charts he might open a new chart sheet which makes the algo trading charts inactive. That will eventually result in algo getting into a dormant mode and any fresh trading signals from amibroker charts might not trigger to the terminal at all.

To avoid this charts has to force certain refresh rate using dedicated RequestTimedRefresh() function in the AFL code. By adding the one-liner code RequestTimedRefresh(1,false); makes amibroker to refresh the charts forcefully even if the charts are in the inactive mode or in minimized mode. This workaround also very useful especially if you are using sound/popup/email/mobile push alerts.

Doing Algo and studying charts at the same time

When your trading algo software is also your technical analysis software then comes one more common trouble where many traders struggle as it could lead to unwanted trading signals hitting your trading terminal. And traders will be wondering how come Algos are triggering orders when there are no signals on the charts.

Above mentioned situation could arise if one change the algo trading mode of the chart to a different symbol or possibly using the same template for different charts. Lets assume that algo is running on Bank Nifty Futures charts and charts are in active mode (AFL coding parameters might be mapped to Exchange Symbol of Bank Nifty Jul Futures) however out of traders curiosity to study some other charts, For example if he change the current charting symbol from Bank Nifty Futures to Eichert Motor Futures then still the AFL parameters mapped to exchange symbol Bank Nifty Futures). So if the signal comes in Eicher Motors it will trigger orders in Bank Nifty Futures. As an algo trader if one is not aware of this simple stuff might get puzzled and questions why all in sudden unwanted signals are getting triggered.

If you faced this issue that one should stop avoiding charts study when algo trading is on the same machine. Another alternative is to switch to VPS Servers where your algo trading machine is less disturbed and also one will have enough power and Internet backup and remains undisturbed 99% of the time.

Avoid running in systems without adequate infrastructure

Reasons to avoid local machines
1)which often hangs due to older machines, faulty hardware or systems with vulnerable virus/malware attacks
2)without sufficient Electricity backup never ever think of doing algo (EB supply still an issue in Indian Markets)
3)Avoid running in machines which goes to auto sleep mode if the system is inactive for few minutes/hours
4)Avoid running in machines which takes auto restart due to windows upgrade. At times system restart could happen due to forced windows upgrade.
5)If you are leaving the algo trading system unattended. Inform your friends/family to take care of it. Any Accidential shutdown might harm the portfolio.

Unrealistic Expectation on Algo Trading

Algo trading is one way of making passive income generation. However if one should avoid doing algo trading if the following statements are true.

1)if one is holding an unrealistic expectation on their algo returns (For Example making Rs5000 every day, making 30,000 every month).
2)Unable to handle 6-7 consecutive losses or more losses emotionally.
3)Unable to handle drawdown periods. Sometime drawdown periods could even exceed more than 3 months.
4)trying to fine tune the trading system parameters after a couple of consecutive losses
5)Overleveraged capital. Urge to trade big lot size with a small quantity of money. Without allocating money to manage the drawdown

These are some of the day to day challenges faced by some of the new & aspiring algo traders. Will try to add if I find any meaningful issues faced by algo traders. Let me know in comments if you faced similar or unique issues in your algo trading career.

Related Readings and Observations

The post 5 Common Mistakes Amibroker based Algo Traders Make That You have to Avoid appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Nifty Futures inventory went long to too long on last Friday. At the Monday open, trading confidence is initially low. Trading confidence is low even after the initial – 2 day breakout with a partial gap fill. However during mid of the day,, one timeframing against the Initial Balance direction is where exactly high confidence sellers started taking control and pressed the price towards the Prominent POC of control 10940 levels.

Day ended with a double distribution structure with 10964 acting as a immediate reference. Both Indicator sentiment and Trading sentiment turned negative on Monday trading session.

Call writers taken control of 11000CE to some extent. And agressive PE writers are thusfar holding with 10600PE, 10700PE, 10800PE & 10900PE levels.

Key Reference Levels

1)Double Distribution Balance at 10964

2)Poor Low at 10918

3)Gap Reference at 10881

4)Prominent POC at 10792

5)P Shape Balance 10770

6)Spike Base + Weak ORR – 10730

For any positive clues nifty futures have to sustain and build distribution above 10964 levels. Price respecting 10964 resistance levels could focus nifty towards 10730 levels (weak ORR) on the downisde.

Related Readings and Observations

The post Nifty Futures – July Series – Market Profile Overview appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Here is the recorded video on how to create custom indicators, scanners/exploration, trading strategies, Signal Generation , Performing Technical analysis and even test/validate your trading models. If you want to learn Amibroker and AFL Programming Language one step better then this course is for you. Currently access is limited to Amibroker AFL Programming online webinar participants.

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The post [Premium] Amibroker AFL Programming 2018 Recorded Webinars appeared first on Marketcalls.

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I guess Nifty is in a make or break zone as the higher timeframe range is getting tighter & tigher. The United States and China slapped tit-for-tat duties on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports on Friday, with Beijing accusing Washington of triggering the “largest-scale trade war”. Despite the news factor Asian markets (China, Hang Seng) recovered the early losses and closed positive.

Stories aside. If you compare the higher timeframe price patterns on the weekly timeframe. Last 5 weeks something interesting is going on the Nifty Weekly High Levels.

This Week – 10816.7
Last Week – 10819.9
3rd Week – 10849.0
4th Week – 10873.5
5th Week – 10814.0

Selling coming at tightly packed zones. If you look closely sellers are more relevant than the buyers here on the weekly timeframe. Buyers are coming at every price levels. Sellers are defending only at specific price zones.

One possibility we can look through is sellers are creating a ceiling effect and buyers who are coming at every prices are struggling to get through. Failure to get through the band 10820-10873 is something seriously need to look into it. On the downside 10723 still holds as an active support zone. Support zone got tested on friday with responsive buyers piling in( FYI, Fridays Bottom is made in the 1st minute).

From the profile perspective most of the cluster stops got taken out. However price on the weekly charts ended up as an inside bar and one timeframing down on the weekly timeframe.

Price opening gap down below 10723 on Monday which could turn the daily sentiment negative. Price closing below 10723 is something which is not a good higher timeframe sentiment as already weekly sentiment maintains in a negative mode for last two trading weeks.

Fridays haven’t left any clue on the directions as most of the Fridays ends with the puzzle leaving the market participants to think how this markets will shape up. Put writers on Friday raised their stakes at 10700 & 10600 strikes anticipating support for this series. Most of the series we can derive intelligence from where put writers are concentrated. If at all 10723 levels have to break first only an local/global event can break it and take this market downside.

Related Readings and Observations
  • Nifty Futures Holds 10600 to 10900 range High Volatile Choppiness is the name of the game being played in Nifty. Since 25th of May lack of serious buying and lack of serious selling is witnessed which is keeping the market in a […]
  • Nifty Future Likely to Get out of Short Term Compression? Nifty Futures is still not out of compression yet and continuing with the 10600 - 10900 range for July series. More frustration is likely among the trend followers and short-term direction […]
  • Nifty Futures – June Expiry Trend Overview Nifty Futures during May series ended marginally negative despite news factors like Karnataka hung assembly, EM Currency crisis, Italy Crisis. Year to date Nifty is up by 1.7%. The first […]
  • Nifty Futures Inventory Adjustment is done? Nifty Futures on Friday's trading session again bounced back above important and critical reference 10564 (Double distribution reference). Thursday's and Friday's trading session involve […]
  • Nifty Futures Liquidation Phase Continues Nifty Futures started its liquidation phase since the start of Karnataka election results. Clients are liquidating their major long positions and parallelly PRO+DII+CLI also exiting their […]
  • Nifty Futures – Inventory getting short to too short Nifty Futures on Wednesday trading session exactly respected at the Tuesdays prominent POC and also selling continued at days open. Day ended with a spike with a poor structure combination […]

The post Nifty Futures Higher Timeframe and Market Profile Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Nifty Futures trading in 10600 – 10900 range and this range is getting even tighter possibly 10700 – 10900 in the near term as the call/put writers are writing at tightly packed zones.

When Comes to Nifty Futures Index short stops are hunted in a phase manner. And more short term stop clusters are in the zone from 10790 – 10850 levels. Short term sentiment maintains positive for last 5 trading sessions. Price is also one timeframing on the upperside which shows the confidence of short term buyers. It is short term buyers because most of the structures are driven by emotions, anomalies & mechanical references.

Upside Key Reference Levels
1)Double Mechanical Reference at 10790
2)Weak ORR stop at 10805
3)Uncleared G2 High at 10820
4)Prominent POC at 10850

Downside Key Reference Levels
1)Double Mechanical Reference at 10600 levels.

Asian markets falling (especially the Chinese and Hong Kong markets) and EM Currency crisis continues to be the talk of media news channels. Volatility in the Indian Market is completely muted. India VIX is currently around 12.57 levels. Immediate support levels comes around 10723 levels. Compression is expected to continue on Friday session as well. Price closing below 10723 on closing basis is a negative sign.

Related Readings and Observations

The post Nifty Futures – Short Term Trend Overview – Market Profile appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Learn the nuances of trading/investing strategies, the art of chart reading and picking up high probability trades.

What you will learn?

1)High Probability Position Trades using Traders Behavior.
2)Learn to Identify potential short covering rally/Long Liquidation setups.
3)Lean when to use supertrend and when not to use supertrend.
4)Lintra – Intraday and Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty.
5)Vlintra – Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty and High Beta Stocks.
5)Vlintra – Ultimate – Intraday Portfolio Trading System and How to Automate it.
6)How to understand the emotions behind gaps and how to trade gaps.
7)When to trade – before the event / post the event.
8)Managing the Risk with Heding Positions.
9)Potential Market Top/Bottom Setups using Market Profile.
10)Money Management Practices, When to Scale in/Scale Out.
11)How to setup professional charting desk/ required software tools/accessories.
12)How to Identify sideways markets using Expected Value.
13)How to Identify Trading Range for Nifty using PCR charts.
14)How to Identify where most of the traders keep their stoploss.
15)How to Identify the Market Confidence using Market Confidence Indicator.
16)How to Identify Trend Cycles using Turbo RSI.

Where do I attend the course?

This is box title
Date
09 Sept 2018

Venue
Caspia Hotel(Premier Inn)
Opp IFB Campus, 3, ITPL Main Road
Bangalore – 560048

Timings
09.00a.m – 6p.m

Contact : 9535133445 / 9611786519

Book Tickets

About the Mentor

Rajandran is a Full time trader and founder of Marketcalls and co-founder of Traderscafe, hugely interested in building timing models, algos , discretionary trading concepts and Trading Sentimental analysis. He now instructs users all over the world, from experienced traders, professional traders to individual traders.
Rajandran attended college in the Chennai where he earned a BE in Electronics and Communications. Rajandran has a broad understanding of trading software like Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Esignal, Metastock, Motivewave, Market Analyst(Optuma), Metatrader, Tradingivew, Python and understands individual needs of traders and investors utilizing a wide range of methodologies.

Benifits of Attending the Workshop

1)Lifetime Access to Marketcalls Private & professional trading community
2)Access to Recorded Webinars on Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Options Studies, Market Profile , Harmonics & Volume Analysis
with more than 100+ hours of recorded webinars
3)Access to Tradestudio ( Marketcalls Proprietery Trading Systems/Indicators/Scanners/Algos/Trading Alerts)

Pre-Requisites
Knowledge about Futures and Options Trading Concepts, Basics of Technical Analysis. Basic knowledge about Amibroker (Technical analysis tool).

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I attend the programme?

The course is a practitioner-orientated professional course that will enhance the short-term and long-term career prospects of anyone working in (or looking to enter) Amibroker / Algorithmic Trading Strategies.

What is Trade Studio?
TradeStudio is a Amibroker Plugin Worth Rs20,000/- which gives access to set of Marketcalls Proprietary Custom Indicators, Trading Strategies (Intraday & Positional) & Scanners from Marketcalls. All the attendees will get the privilege of accessing in Trade Studio in Amibroker up to 1 Year.

How do I contact the Instructor post the course?
Lifetime Slack Access will be provided to our private trading community where we will be discussing algo trading, trading strategies, trading api and best practices.

Do you Provide Wifi Facilities at the Venue?
No, Participants are requested to bring their own 3G/4G dongle.

Related Readings and Observations

The post Trading Strategies for Active Traders appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Here is one of my Signature trades using market profile and how one can look through the trade setup for a potential short covering rally especially when we are dealing with negative global emotions . On Wednesdays trading most of the Asian Markets are down due to the trade war tensions and the previous day US Markets slides to negative. The most interesting part was 4th July US markets are closed for Independence day.

US Markets Settlement Close on 3rd July 2018

[Currently, this tutorial access is limited to TradeZilla members only]

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The post [Premium] : When to Anticipate a Short Covering Rally Especially When Global Markets Reflect Tensions appeared first on Marketcalls.

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Here is a simple Amibroker AFL code snippet which tracks the last trade price with a dashed horizontal line at LTP. It could be useful for the people who wants to know where the current market price is trading relative to their support/resistance/some other reference levels.

Amibroker Chart with LTP Marker

Simple Control is enabled to change the line color and style. To Access the control right click over the charts and goto parameters to change the required parameters.

Amibroker Parameter Control Options

Amibroker AFL Code Snippet for Price with LTP Marker

Related Readings and Observations

The post Code Snippet : Price with Last Trade Price Marker : Amibroker appeared first on Marketcalls.

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