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This past week we had Fed Wednesday near the market high on Wednesday – the market peaked around 11am a few hours before the Fed meeting and then proceeded to drop into the close.

The next day saw a pop up – in the morning – a B-wave – where we exited a portion of our position – in hind sight should have exited all at that point – though by this point we exited most of our position. What followed next was C -wave down – followed by a short covering rally into triple witching options expiration on Friday.

Today’s S&P500 4 Hour Chart

At this point, I’m expecting range bound movement – and much of next week’s actions will be dictated by whether financials participate in the rally or not.

The XLF chart is not looking great – and while there is a set up for it to move up, if it does not, it may stall out the rest of the market and we could roll over.

So a struggle to get over 2790 ES may result in a push back below 2765 ES.

However, if the market can show strength Monday or Tuesday – then it is likely that we can reach new highs by end of the week.

Today’s Dow Jones 4 Hour Chart

The dow has been lagging – and one of the largest holdings in the Dow is Goldman Sachs (GS) – also a component of the XLF. Remember the Dow Jones is a price-weighted index – so a high priced stock like Goldman Sachs carries a greater weight on the Dow Jones index than similar market-cap- stocks.

Notice we have the classic Elliott wave pattern 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c —-happening twice in this Dow Jones set up. The difference is the amount of vertical movement is a bit muted compared to the other indices.

Today’s Nasdaq Hourly Chart


The Nasdaq has been strong – but tech may be at risk of a pull back next week – a bit more so than the other indexes in my opinion.

Today’s Gold Monthly Chart

Gold has been struggling to get over 1380 GC resistsance level for many years — at this point – I think it’s clear enough to see that we have a failed 3rd wave breakout set up – and this should likely mean we should be heading further down.

For the remainder of 2018 – I remain bearish – I just don’t know how  long it will take, but it seems clear the upside is limited after multiple failed attempts to the upside.

Combine this chart with the chart of the US dollar – which has a set up to the upside.

Today’s US Dollar Hourly Chart

Interestingly, the US dollar is setup with a I-II set up. Initial strength off that low is favorable for further upside.

Some real estate markets have blamed a strength in the US dollar for preventing foreigners frrom purchasing real estate in the US – particularly in places like Miami where a lot of money comes from South America – where they’ve been having lots of currency issues.

I think the US dollar will continue to get stronger, assuming this pattern plays out, so foreign appetite for US Real estate may dampen in the immediate future, in my opinion.

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up.

For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.


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This week was the easiest way to make money — that is, if you didn’t do anything!

Sometimes sitting on a long position and having the patience to wait out the dips is harder than it seems — but when the market set up is there – sometimes the best move is no move — to let the market do its thing and waiting for opportunities to take profits.

This week was one of those weeks.

My thoughts this week were straight out of Jesse Livermore’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

S&P500 Futures #ESU8

On Friday, the liquidity moved from the ESM8 (June) S&P futures contract to the ESU8 (September) S&P futures contract.

So going forward, charts will be based on the September S&P contract.

We had a monstrous run of around $2,000 from a $1,700 position size — an over 100% return. We cashed out 40% of this amount on the pop to what is now the 2775 ES level. So 40% of what was $1,700 in profits at the time resulted in realizing around $680 in profits.

We are still holding on to the remaining 3 of 5 SPY call contracts – which have an unrealized profit of $1,300.

So if we add this $1,300 unrealized with the $680 in realized, then we have a trade that increased account size around $2,000 — or from $25,000 to $27,000 — by risking only $1,700 — that’s risking less than 10% of the account value.

This just shows the power of options — when entered at the right time and selected properly to provide appropriate % return while still managing ongoing, and increasing built-in time decay.

This one trade is responsible for the May to June move up from $25k to $27k.

S&P500 4H Chart

Trade Recap

BUY Alert: Buy to open 5 SPY June 15 ’18 270.5 call at market – Wednesday, May 30, 2018

SELL Alert: Sell to close 40% SPY June 15’18 270.5 call at market – Wednesday, June 6, 2018

“position up $1,700 profit, roughly 100% return — exiting 2 of the 5 contracts to lock in”

Still holding 3 of the 5 SPY calls.

Pattern we predicted: 

Entry Date: May 30, 2018

Expiration Date: June 15 Days Held: 7 (so far)

S&P500 Daily Chart

Nasdaq (NQU8) Daily Chart

Nasdaq broke to new highs and was particularly strong earlier in the week, though it corrected quite a bit on Thursday and Friday. Money flowed out of the big tech names and into the Dow during that time.

Dow Jones (YMU8) Daily Chart

Likewise, the Dow also formed the Classic Elliott Wave pattern and was a bit sluggish to start the 3rd wave up. When other indices were moving up, Dow wasn’t moving up.

But as the Nasdaq pulled back, the rotation was moving into the Dow names — and we finally got the break out push on Wednesday and for Thursday and Friday, the Dow outperformed the other indices.

When the pattern aligns – you’ve got to ride the wave. Exiting too early and overtrading will just kill you. Ride the wave.

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The stock market is forming a classic Elliott Wave pattern whereas Bitcoin has just formed a leading diagonal within a triangle structure. Bitcoin Pattern Analysis – Triangle?
Is Bitcoin Moving Up? - YouTube

Stock Market Analysis – ES, NQ, SPY, QQQ
Is Bitcoin Moving Up? - YouTube
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Analysis of bitcoin and major stock market indices. What will markets doing into the 3 day Memorial Weekend coming up next weekend?

Bitcoin and Stock Market Analysis into Week of 5/21/18 - YouTube

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

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A quick update on the crypto markets. After bottoming around $6400 a few weeks ago – bitcoin peeked over its own trend line around $8000 – which we called attention to members as a significant area.

Today, just a week later, bitcoin is hovering just over $9000 after reaching resistance around $9,500.

Meanwhile, EOS – has 5x’ed since its low of $4 – we recommended it at $10 and looked a bit stupid when it was down 60%, but now it’s up 100% – trading over $20. This it the wild wild west of cryptocurrencies – so you’ve got to be able to stomach pain and have a strategy in place – the strategy we recommend is the same as in our Warren Buffett video – dollar cost averaging.

Bitcoin. What is it?

Bitcoin for Beginners Ebook - Update on Crypto Recommendations - YouTube
The next big thing revolutionizing the world of money as we know it? Or just the biggest scam and bubble in history?

Bitcoin is everywhere, literally. We hear about it on the news. Your friends, their parents, their cousins and uncles all hear about it, yet it can be hard to explain.
What exactly is it? Why should you care?

Yes, bitcoin has been used by drug dealers and money launderers in illegal scandals that have taken place in dark corners of the internet through shady marketplaces including something called the Silk Road. Yes, bitcoin has also been hacked – not the coin, but the exchange it was on – in the infamous Mount Gox collapse.

Yes, bitcoin has been called a fraud by respected CEO Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan. And yes, even legendary investor Warren Buffett said bitcoin will come to a bad ending.

Yet at the same time, bitcoin has revolutionized the concept of money and more importantly, the concept of trust as we know it. It is perhaps the most important financial development of this century, whether it works or not. Love it or hate it, you’ve got to at least understand it and its implications for what is to come.

Before we define bitcoin, let’s put it in context – from the beginning.

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

Get Trade Alerts Now

Follow on Instagram

  Need assistance with getting approved for options by your broker?

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The Cointelegraph as well as Bloomberg Pantera Capital articles mention the top hedge fund calling a bit bottom in the price of bitcoin.

“For those who are new to Pantera who might think a fund manager like Pantera would always be saying ‘Today’s a great day to get long,”’ wrote Pantera’s Dan Morehead and Joey Krug. “I rarely have such strong conviction on timing. A wall of institutional money will drive the markets much higher.”

Prices of all cryptocurrencies have crashed quite a significant amount – most well over 50 % and some over 80% (Cardano / ADA) – is now the time to buy?

Here’s my take:

Time To Buy Bitcoin - April 2018? - YouTube


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Our last trade alerts were purchasing the Nasdaq near the lows around 6440 NQ and exiting half around 6640 ES – and slightly higher on Friday due to the completion of an ascending wedge with downside follow through. So we were able to capture  some 200 NQ points. Of course, our position sizing on TQQQ could have been bigger – but nevertheless, we were able to stomach quite a bit of volatility and capture these 200 NQ points with profit for members.

Keep in mind we issued the Buy alert amidst Trump tweets Amazon – and Facebook being pulled into Congress to testify.  Not easy to buy when sentiment is bad. In fact, after buying – the next morning the Nasdaq made an even lower low – but we had enough conviction to hold on and were able to capture the rally profits.

Bitcoin Recovery?

Bitcoin has been making a peek over the down tradeline after hovering around the $6400 for the first two weeks of April.

Perhaps with the tax deadlina approaching and some people are putting tax refund money into the crypto space. Or perhaps its rumors that George Soros – a big name in the currency trading space – has been rumored to potentially start trading bitcoin.

Or perhaps level of interest in crypto is hitting lows with all the regulation in place and the SEC subpoenaing a bunch of ICOs.

OWhatever the case is, there was a popup just recently in crypto land – significant enough to move the chart action above the down trend line. Usually when this happens, it may go back down to back test the down trade line before a rally moves forward. Many smaller cryptos have already staged some impressive bounces from the lows. Oftentimes, people say – the best time to buy is when nobody else is looking.

Today’s S&P500 Hourly Chart

The S&Pwas positioned for a breakout – on Friday – after JP Morgan and Citi reported earnings – but the market decided to pull back instead.

We ended up forming a wedge up towards 2680 ES – but then pulled back significantly from there all of Friday. When an ascending wedge like this forms – usually it means we either drop for a big pullback – or we break out.

Since we did not break out – the drop could have been a sign of a deeper drop. However, the action in that last hour of trading on Friday – because of the strength of it – opens up the possibility that the bull move may not yet be over.

So at this point – as long as we hold and ideally do not retest the 2644 ES region, and instead continue to move immediately up – there’s still the possibility that the rally will happen.

On the other hand, if we open Monday with the markets below where we closed 2659 ES – then I would say we could be setting up for a deper drop towards 2622 ES before a bounce higher.

Prior  S&P500 Hourly Chart

I wanted to show this zoomed up chart – because that rally in that last half hour of Friday afternoon trading is significant – because it forms an A-B-C zig zag that could save the bullish case – assuming it follows through into Monday.

Today’s Nasdaq Hourly Chart

The ascending wedge – completed with a i-ii-iii-iv-v formation – followed by what COULD be an a-b-c retrace as well as a strong bounce at the close. So at this point, it’s all about the follow through.

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

Get Trade Alerts Now

Follow on Instagram

  Need assistance with getting approved for options by your broker?

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Trump vs China tariff wars are dominating the headlines – should we be worried?

The first tariffs were introduced by Trump earlier in March  for 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, but exempting Canada and Mexico.

Then things started to heat up in this past week with China retaliating early in the week with tariffs on 128 US products – then Trump responding with 25% tariffs on TVs, then China putting tariffs on US’s main export to China – agriculture and pork.

Then Trump saying that he would consider $100B more in tariffs.

Also in the news was Trump attacking Amazon.

So what does this all mean for the market?

Based on the chart patterns, I’m inclined to expect a bounce. It looked like we were in the process of getting a bounce in the markets with the markets roaring higher from the lows – but then it get smacked right back down as Trump announced he would consider an additional $100B worth of tariffs on China late in the week on Thursday night.

So should we be in a state of fear? From a headline perspective – yes. But from a pattern perspective, I do see a completed 5 wave move down with a wave 1 bounce followed by an a-b-c wave 2 drop. Certainly the wave 2 is a bit stronger than I would have expected – but the market did show some green in the last hour of trading on Friday.

While a gap down is possible into next week, I’m inclined to say a bounce is more likely.  So if I were to use the stock charts to try to guess the news, I would guess that news will come out saying that chances of a trade war are reduced in some way.

Today’s S&P500 Hourly Chart

Today’s S&P Daily  Chart

The pattern above is on an hourly chart – and can be seen zoomed out below on the daily chart.

If the count is correct, it would suggest a rally over 2700. It sems there has been significant support just below 2600 as evidenced in most of the last two weeks in this zone but often bouncing above  and not spending too much time in this region.

Today’s Nasdaq Hourly Chart

The Nasdaq appears to have completed an ending diagonal on April 4 – after a giant wave 4 bounce on March 26.

The c of wave 2 pullback on April 6 Friday appears positioned for a bounce as well. So both S&P and Nasdaq appear aligned. So while the world is fearful of a potential trade war between China and the US – I’m inclined to that news will come out saying that things are actually OK.

Today’s Dow Hourly Chart

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

Get Trade Alerts Now

Follow on Instagram

  Need assistance with getting approved for options by your broker?

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It’s Easter / Good Friday weekend and markets were closed on Friday. While the markets were positioned for more downside this past week – it began with a violent rally – and then erased it all the very next day – but then was stuck for the rest of the week into the long weekend.

Usually for long 3-day weekends, it’s very unlikely for a crash to happen into it. Instsead, what we saw was short covering.

So as much as I’d like to see this market retest the lows from earlier in February before a move back up – I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls within this larger bull market.

The FB news has been very negative and Trump has already made comments, forcing Amazon stock down – in the immediate next week – I see the probability of this getting worse as <50%. Meanwhile, I do see a clear 5 waves down on the Nasdaq — and it seems the Nasdaq is struggling to move lower.

The Dow and S&P are weaker, but the Nasdaq looks to have completed 5 waves and may even be heading for a move up. So it’s difficult to get overly bearish here because the market just isn’t following through for that spectacular big downside I was hoping for .

Today’s S&P500 Daily Chart

At the start of this past week, I wanted to see downside follow through – especially since we closed last Friday below 2600 – yet we had all week to get down, but we spent the entire week above that 2600 level — some initial signs that the bears are dropping the ball yet again.

Today’s Dow Daily Chart

The Dow chart is similar to to S&P – yet this past week – it, too, stayed above the low from last Friday all week — additional signs that the Dow bears are dropping the ball.

So if the Nasdaq clue of 5 waves down is indeed accurate, I don’t see the market dropping this next week as most are anticipating

Today’s Nasdaq Daily Chart

I see an A-B-1-2-3-4-5 chart – where the 5 made a lower low – while it did not in the Dow and S&P. So the Nasdaq chart seems most complete to the downside whereas the Dow and S&P potentially made truncated 5ths.

Hard to say – as it can go either way with such high levels of volatility – but I’m leaning towards a move up this net week if there is minimal movement in the futures market into the Monday open.

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

Get Trade Alerts Now

Follow on Instagram

  Need assistance with getting approved for options by your broker?

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Finally! Yes – some big movements in the stock market and we caught some good chunks. In my last post, the title mentioned that “S&P, Nasdsaq Offering Better Opportunities” — at the time the market was looking up. Regardless of which direction, it was clear the indices were actually moving – as opposed to crypto which is somewhat stuck at the moment.

Early in the week, we saw signs that the market was not following through on a 3rd wave setup. We alerted to members that if that was indeed a failed 3rd wave follow through, then what follows next would be a C-wave down. We immediately exited our QQQ long calls and entered into UVXY – effectively shorting the markets by buying volatility.

Now, volatility didn’t spike as much as I thought it would – or not as much as it did during that initial A-wave down but it did move up as news of Trump tariff wars with China came out in the days after we bought volatility.

Of course, it wasn’t immediately green – because the Fed day on Wednesday brought a spike up – but I had enough conviction of the chart pattern to hold onto the UVXY position through that Fed announcement – and through all the intraday ups and downs – all the way til the close on Friday – when we exited 60% of our position. In hindsight, a larger position size or index puts should probably have been used, but our direction call for the market to come down when the move was large was spot on this time.

Bitcoin

Cryptos have been getting annihilated, though the chart is showing some promise.


This is the best count  I can think of that can still fit the textbook Elliott Wave pattern where we have 5 waves up and a-b-c correction toward $7600. The key is holding $8200 in order for this to hold true. If so, bitcoin better make some move upwards.

Between the big 3 – bitcoin and litecoin seem to be the stronger ones whereas Ethereum is still lagging.

Basic Elliott Wave Pattern

Today’s S&P500 Hourly Chart

The Fed announcement on Wednesdsay March 21 – brought that spike up to 2750 ES just after the announcement – and then it reversed. That reversal was key – because then overnight, we began the descent in what appears to be a wave 3 – which was itself split into i-ii-iii-iv-v waves as shown above.

Stepping back from a daily candle perspective – we had a setup for a 3rd wave up – which failed. A failed 3rd wave becomes a B-wave top – as shown in the labeling above. What follows next is a C-wave down.

When I saw this possibility happen – I gave it some time to see if it could reverse back up – but once we made that first wave 1 down, I alerted to members that if that was a failed 3rd wave – then what follows next will be a C-wave down. And that is indeed what happened.

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Ideally, I want to see this dip below 23000 in order to create an A-B-C pattern. Given the spikes that happened in the A wave down – it’s likely that even if we get there, we won’t stay there for long. So the 3 lines represent possible support zones – to keep in mind if we get to those levels.

Today’s Nasdaq Daily Chart

If we stick to the same A-B-C theme – notice that the Nasdaq made a significantly higher B-wave top. If this C-wave comes down, it will very likely not reach the bottom of wave A. So if A = C, then the size of the C-wave down will be limited to the downside, maybe just another 100 or so points down from 6550 NQ to maybe 6450 NQ – where the pink line is.

Crypto Resources

If you are new to crypto – the most popular place to get started is Coinbase – use this link to get $10 in bitcoin when you sign up. For smaller cryptos, I’ve been using Binance – though I’ve been having issues verifying my identity with them. So far it seems to be one of the better platforms for getting exposure to various cryptos.

Robinhood has $0 trade commission for stock and will soon have it for cryptos.

Sign Up!

Sign up to become a member to access to premium videos and you will get the insights you need to make more educated trade decisions. And yes, you’ll get to join our Whatsapp mobile text alerts for weekly trade recommendations.

Trade Alerts

Get Trade Alerts Now

Follow on Instagram

  Need assistance with getting approved for options by your broker?

Read Full Article
Visit website

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