I’ve been playing a lot of poker again lately. I was surprised to see that it’s been three years since I’ve played with any regularity.
1/2 no-limit holdem results
Back in 2015 and and early 2016, before our first son was born, I was playing a fair bit of cards. In fact I logged 494 hours of play between 1/1/2015 and 1/31/2016.
After that I played only once when I was in northern Michigan visiting family.
Three years is a long time to not practice something, so I was unsure of how I’d play at first when starting up again. As you can see, I haven’t lost my poker playing skill.
I’ve played thousands of hours of poker. I started playing online in college and supported myself playing for a couple years post-college until I landed myself at a hedge fund in Chicago.
On top of the thousands of hours of play, I’ve probably spent just as much time talking over hands with a good friend, replaying them over and over, analyzing what could have been done better whether I’d won or lost.
This is how a skill is formed. And it’s hard to lose something that you’ve put so much time and effort into.
It’s no different than trading, but people don’t seem to grasp that. I see folks attracted to trading all the time, looking for a quick/easy way to make money or get rich.
It doesn’t happen like that, and the market will quickly churn through those folks.
Some people come to just take a shot, just like they do at the poker table. And it may work in the short-term. That’s the element of luck. But over the medium and long-term those are the folks paying me off.
Here’s the chart if you don’t want to click through:
This is a weekly chart, so it’s going to take some time to play out, obviously. But the break and retest of that trend line is just gorgeous. It’s hard not to appreciate technical analysis and all the psychology that can be seen on a single chart.
I’ve drawn a Fibonacci extension. A 100% extension would put us at $104 here in $GLD.
The last leg down from April to August took just over four months to complete. If January was the high for $GLD and this leg down happens with similar momentum, we would expect to hit our target sometime in the first half of April.
I hadn’t given this chart that much thought when I first put on my June 21st, $115 puts a week or so ago. They’ve been a bit underwater.
But after today’s drop I doubled down on those same puts. The position is currently down about 8%.
I haven’t done a long-term play like this in awhile, so I’m excited to see how it turns out.
I’ve been in a EURUSD long that I’m now clearly wanting out of as we test this support as resistance:
I’m mostly posting this because I’m afraid Oanda’s servers might be down and I want to build my case that I wasn’t able to close my trade, even for a slight loss. If this ends up moving lower (like I expect it might), I’ll be royally screwed. Never mind the fact that if I could close right now I’d be shorting.
I’ve been trying to close this trade for the last minute or two via my mobile app, and now the web platform. Nothing is working. Live chat seems to be down, and I can’t get a hold of anyone on the phone… it’s actually giving a busy signal!!
So when I inevitably have to complain to Oanda and request they close my trade at the price of this screenshot, whether the price is higher (in my favor), or lower (not in my favor) later today (I hope today, at least!) let this serve as my request to CLOSE MY TRADE!
I’ll update here with Oanda’s response to this issue.
In tonight’s video I talk about why I’m still bullish the US Dollar and looking to short EURUSD.
Why I'm bullish USD and shorting EURUSD - YouTube
Please note that in the video I mention I have already started a short position. I’ve taken that off for a tiny profit, as I’m not sure we’re quite ready to roll over yet.
Here’s a look at the 15-min chart and why I think we might be heading a bit higher yet:
We’re essentially consolidating this last leg higher and hanging out above the previous resistance zone. The 50 and 100-bar SMA’s have crossed the 200 and the 50 is nearing current price, likely to be supportive.
I’ve actually taken a small long at these levels, targeting just a 40 pip move for now. In short, although I’m overall bullish on the US Dollar, and therefore bearish EURUSD, I don’t see any clear signs to start that short position just yet.
In this video I dive into the seven forex pairs I like to track and analyze. For the most part, I still believe we’ll see a strong USD, so I like getting long the US dollar against most majors, particularly the EURUSD.
That said, I continue to avoid GBP pairs simply due to the potential headline risk coming from Brexit news and developments.
Last night as the wife and I were lying in bed about to doze off I told her,
“I think this was our best Halloween ever.”
If you know my wife, you know that’s a bold statement for me to make. She loves Halloween. When we still lived in California we’d throw an annual Halloween party and invite all of our friends. Our costumes were always extremely intricate, planned and worked on for weeks or months. She hand made most parts of them.
To say we have some pretty epic Halloween memories would be a gross understatement.
But last night was the first time our oldest son (he’s almost two-and-a-half) really understood what’s going on. Our youngest son just turned three months old, so the wife had to take him back while Tucker and I braved on.
And while it was a ton of fun walking our subdivision with him and trick-or-treating, we had the most fun when we got back home.
Not a bad haul!
While our little guy was already in bed, the three of us had a little dance party to some Halloween classics (he loves Monster Mash) and just enjoyed reliving our Halloween memories through our little guy’s sugar high. It’s really something magical from this end of things. I struggle to put it into words.
I hope you all enjoyed your Halloween as much as I did.
Moving on. I threw this quick video together to go over what I’m seeing in the markets. Things will likely be rocky tomorrow as the all anticipated Apple earnings disappointed.
I took advantage of the US Dollar weakness to short EURUSD and go over why. Check it out:
Today’s video is a quick Halloween special. I take a quick look at equities, discuss my latest view on USDJPY (spoiler: I’m now short), and why I think we’re likely to see continued bounces in EURUSD and GBPUSD.
USDJPY fades while EURUSD attempts to find a bottom - YouTube