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The EURAUD rejects new trend highs.

The EURAUD reversal from new trend highs is pretty spectacular. First of all, this is a bearish engulfing candle. Secondly, we rejected the 161% Fibonacci extension of the last move lower in May. Third, the 78% retracement of the 2019 range was also rejected. Lastly, a horizontal level from mid 2018 was also respected. The risk for this pair is lower near term.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day – EURAUD- (June 18th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The Cable breaks new trend lows and long term trend line.

The GBPUSD broke the long term trend line at the 1.2600 level on Friday and continued the fall to trend lows today as we are now targeting the 1.2500 level which is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the last move higher. We may find support there as the daily RSI is reaching oversold and is divergent. Bears should take note.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day – GBPUSD- (June 17th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The bund looks set to make another all time high.

It isn’t a secret that the bund has been in a long term bull market. Examining the recent price action, silver has currently stalled at the 127% extension of the last move lower (previous 2019 range) but as we near all time highs once again it looks like we could make a run for the 161% Fibonacci extension at 170.71 which is also the target following the triangle breakout as well. RSI is overbought and divergent which may assist the 161% extension in holding should we test it.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -10year Bund- (June 13th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The USDCHF bounce is about to test the 200dma.

After breaking the long term 1.5 year trend line and 200dma, the pair is back to test the 200dma once again and the underside of the broken trend line. In other words, this is a make it or break it level for the bulls. A failure here could pave the way for the .9800 level, and a break higher could challenge 1.0100 once again.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -USDCHF- (June 12th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The USDSEK has been leading USD weakness against European currencies.

You could also say “The SEK has been leading European currency strength” as the USDSEK is dipping to some key support. The uptrend line from 2019 and the 50% retracement of the last move higher comes in at today’s lows at 9.4000.

Most people would think that a weak Non Farm Payroll number would lead to a EURUSD rally (which it may) tomorrow. However, I may be more inclined to look to short the USDSEK instead knowing that is broke some key support.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -USDSEK- (June 6th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The EURJPY tested major resistance today ahead of the ECB meeting.

The EURJPY tested major resistance ahead of the ECB meeting. When a pair hits a level so many times, we often refer to that level the “bull/bear” line. What that means in essence is when the pair is below it, you remain bearish. Above it, you turn bullish (we have this as a normal level in the Forex Analytix platform for all instruments we cover).

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting for the EURJPY as we have the ECB meeting. The market is anticipating a dovish ECB ahead of tomorrow. In the event the ECB is not as dovish as the market expects, the risk is we break back above this “bull/bear” line tomorrow which comes in at 122.20. The 4hr RSI has been divergent, but also back to mid range, which also means anything can happen.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -EURJPY- (June 5th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The fundamentals are changing.

The US Dollar has seen an impressive reversal in the past few sessions, and this can be mostly attributed to the reversal seen within the Fed, over the past months. If we recall, only six months ago, the Fed was in “autopilot” mode: tightening bias and unwinding of the balance sheet. Since then, the Fed’s rhetoric and the market forecasts have changed dramatically.

Was this dovish shift due to a deterioration in economic data? Partly, yes. Although employment data is still relatively robust (unemployment rate at 3.6% and Nonfarm Payroll 3-month rolling average just below +200K), that’s probably the only bright spot within the gathering clouds. The Fed’s favourite measure of inflation – Core PCE – remains below target at 1.6%. Furthermore, PMI and housing data continue to disappoint. Finally, forward GDP estimates are constantly dropping.

Was the Fed’s dovish shift also due to President Trump’s pressure? Well, theoretically the President should have no influence over the Federal Reserve, but things often differ between theory and practice.

We saw Fed members become progressively more dovish, and today James Bullard gave a pretty clear sign that rate cuts are coming sooner rather than later. The market has been pricing rate cuts for some time now, but after today’s big rates move (yields dropping), we have stretched to price between three and four 25bp cuts by the end of 2020. The yield curve is well and truly inverted, with the difference between the overnight rate and the 10-year yield hitting -40bps.

Is that too much, too quickly? In my opinion that’s a very plausible scenario. However, I feel that we could be facing a binary scenario: The Fed will either not cut at all, or they will need to cut a lot more, in order to fend off another 2008-like global crisis.


Stelios Kontogoulas

While the DXY is testing major support!

The double top in the US Dollar index is testing the neckline which is very important support at the 97.00 level for a few reasons. First, it is the neckline and horizontal support. Second, it is the 38% retracement of the 2009 low to high. Lastly, a break of this level would mean a move below the long term trend line support and target well below the 96.00 level. This would create a lot of selling all the way down due to the important levels being breached, including the 200DMA.



Blake Morrow

And the major dollar pairs are at key junctures.

There are several major pairs that are either currently breaking out against the dollar or are close to producing such a technical event. Below we are going to briefly go over a few of them.

The USDJPY is on the precipise of a major breakdown since it isprobing the area below the support of a multi-year symmetrical triangle. A break below the 61.8% Fib and the 107.61 area will confirm such a technical event and open up much lower targets.



The USDCHF in an equivalent fashion is testing the T/L support of an 18 month old ascending wedge. A break below parity opens up the D/S and should accelerate the pair’s losses.



The EURUSD is attempting to break above a 10 month descending wedge. A breach of the 1.13 resistance area will confirm and point to further gains. Keep in mind that by definition wedges are expected to retrace 100% of the formation ,which in this case would point to a move back to 1.18!



The Kiwi is one of the fist dollar pairs that made a move having already broken above a descending wedge 2 weeks ago. The next upside resistance is at 0.67 and a move past that should accelerate its gains.



Steve Voulgaridis

The post The dollar is in danger of breaking down! appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The DXY double top is testing the neckline.

The double top in the US Dollar index is testing the neckline which is very important support at the 97.00 level for a few reasons. First, it is the neckline and horizontal support. Second, it is the 38% retracement of the 2009 low to high. Lastly, a break of this level would mean a move below the long term trend line support and target well below the 96.00 level. This would create a lot of selling all the way down due to the important levels being breached, including the 200DMA.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -DXY- (June 4th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The GBPUSD has tested some key support at the 1.2600 level today.

Although the GBPUSD went as low as 1.2580 today the fact that we are holding above the 1.2600 level tells us how important this level of support is for the end of the week. Specifically, this is a) the 88% Fibonacci retracement of the Nov 2018 lows to Mar 2019 highs, b) the 127% extension of the Feb 2019 lows to Mar 2019 highs and c) a long standing trend line from 2017 to present. The daily RSI is slightly divergent and oversold, but the GBPUSD really should close the week above 1.2600 to validate this important support.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -GBPUSD- (May 30th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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The BOC rate decision pushed the USDCAD above 1.3500, but was it enough?

The USDCAD rallied above the 1.3500 level following the BOC rate decision, and the pair looks to have broke out. However, the lack of ability to close above the 1.3520 may be just short of a breakout. Horizontally AND the multi year downtrend line as well. RSI is also coiled up, so by the end of the week if we close above the 1.3550 level I think it will be safe to say that was a breakout.



Blake Morrow

The post Chart of the Day -USDCAD- (May 29th 2019) appeared first on ForexAnalytix - Blog.

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