Only 7 runners so no each way punts, Hart Stopper is 4th top rated with a trainers stat of 21% winners with their older runners and the jockey is 1-2 for this stable so cannot be discounted as there's not much between my top 4, Delegate This Lord is 3rd top and the trainer has a 17% win ratio but the jockeys 0-5 for this stable confuses the issue but never say never, I've got joint top rated with Red Alert who i backed last time out when the 2/1 favourite and will be running again quickly if racing here and they will be trying to get another win before its re-handicapped, the other top-rated is BURIDAN 4/1 and will be my selection because it looks the one that's most likely to set the pace and could, therefore, pinch the race from the front.
CHELMSFORD 2.35 Div1
Theres 3 horses in this race that have been known to lead before but im not sure Ar Saoirse will stay this trip if the early pace is really fast so I doubt it will attempt to lead here, Hello Girl hasnt run over this c/d before but has good trainer/jockey stats with older horses and speedwise its only just outside my top 4, Daring Guest my 4th top rated has a losing run of 18 to overcome and the jockeys record is 0-2 for this stable, POPPY MAY 7/2 is a possible pace setter and stall 1 gives it every chance to lead all the way here and will be one of two horses I will be backing in this race, charlie Alpha is a fifteen run maiden and im thinking its best time was when it got towed along in a fast run affair and hasnt produced that mark any other time so it might have been a flukey time for the horse, my 2nd bet in the race will be KYLLUKEY 8/1 who now looks to have been the stables non trier on its last run where its stablemate led all the way but the trainer has found it a decent chance here to get itself back to the winners circle.
CHELMSFORD 3.10 Div2
This 2nd division looks a strange race in many ways, Olaudah is 4th top rated but the stables 1-16 record at this course doesn't sit well with me so its not one I could back but it could run well, Indian Affair is 3rd best on my figures but this time I'm put off by the jockeys 0-19 record for the stable but it one of only two known front running types in the race so could go well, Prince Rock has one time that is head and shoulders above anything else its shown so maybe another flukey result especially as its still a maiden after 12 runs, my money will be riding on BILLYOAKES 4/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and being drawn in stall 2 in this race I'm hoping it can get a good position on the rails either in front or sitting a length or so behind the leaders being ready to pounce close home.
A poor turnout of just 6 runners for a Group 2 five-furlong dash, Battash comes out top rated of the older horses but it will be a hot favourite 5/4, if fully wound up for its 1st run of the year, it should win but its not my sort of price and with just 2 places I can't see any value backing one each way so maybe its a race to watch and savour or if you wish to put it in a multi-bet.
This class 2 dash at York has 19 runners and I always worry that one side might be favoured more than the other, normally I think the draw favours those drawn low and for that fact only I will be putting a few quid on HAROME 28/1 who is capable of front running and is drawn in stall 1 will be an each way price and might be the value call in the race but my stakes will be kept low.
A listed class race with 11 entrants, there's a distinct lack of form/speed figures to work with especially with the four 3-year-olds and any of them could improve beyond reason and I've been caught out too often by a rogue 3-year-old in a race so I will be leaving this race well alone in betting terms but I will enjoy watching it and hopefully it will give me some pointers for future races.
I wish there was 1 more runner in this 7 runner race but it probably contains my main bet of the day, Boy In The Bar and Zac Brown will most likely set the pace here and the latter is 3rd top rated on my figures and if getting an easy lead it could then prove hard to catch, the topweight Shamshon comes out 2nd top and did win last time out and if the selection doesn't run to its best then it could follow up here but I will take a gamble on the ENGLISHMAN 7/1 its had 2 runs this year where both times its been a big outsider but I'm hoping those 2 runs have primed him for an attempt at winning this race, the trainer has a good 20% win ratio at Goodwood and the jockey booking looks a positive move and I will be backing it.
I am not a fan of low class 5 and 6 races on turf as they are usually so inconsistent its very hard to analyse a race properly and in this race I was thinking of leaving it well alone but WHO TOLD JO JO 14/1 has a piece of form from Windsor in 2017 that would put it head and shoulders above today's opposition, it won 2 runs ago at Brighton which shows its still capable of winning a race, I have to admit the time of that Brighton race was pretty slow, its run since and didn't show its best but I'm hoping it will be good enough to show a profit with a small each way bet at the price.
A busy day so some will be kept brief with just the relevant facts, I think Coronation Cottage may set the pace here but it would need to be a slow pace as it doesn't stay this distance in a fast run affair but Red Alert will probably make sure it doesn't slack in the front as it's my 2nd top rated but my money will be riding on DELEGATE THIS LORD 4/1 who usually runs on strongly at the finish over both 5 furlongs and 6 furlongs the only downside to the chances of this one is the losing run of 12 so my stake won't be at full tilt in this race.
A class 2 race with 9 runners and 3 of them have been known to lead before and they are all in my top 4 ratings, Tis Marevllous 4th top and Enjazaat my 3rd top rated are 2 of the possible pacesetters, while the bottom weight Jashma could be the one to prosper if the leaders go off too fast but I've got GREEN POWER 11/2 a good few spots clear of the others and its a front running sort and stall 1 is ideal at this course, the booked jockey has only ridden for this stable once before and that was on this horse when it finished 4th over this c/d when beaten just three quarters of a length but it never got to lead that day, then finished 3rd at Newmarket when beaten 2 necks into 3rd spot after leading and if it leads on this easier course it could lead all the way for the win and will carry my money.
I can see 4 or 5 of these battling for the lead here but theres no bias with the draw so nothing I can see leading from where they are drawn but funnily enough my top 3 are all drawn next to each other in stalls 6, 7 and 8 and all of them could be the possible pace setters, SOCIALITES RED 20/1 in stall 8 can lead but is versatile with its racing tactics the trainer has a 17% win record with his older horses and is being ridden by a good 7lb claiming apprentice which keeps it as my joint top rated but that time was from 2017 but has shown decent form on the AW this winter, MUSHARRIF 9/4 won for me last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here this one is also being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which keeps it joint top rated but DAPPER MAN 4/1 who finished 4th behind Musharrif is taking it on again here and it isnt weighted to reverse the form but the jockey Ben Curtis has a 22% win rate for this stables older horses so maybe it didnt perform to its best last time out and they now fancy it to do much better and for that reason i will be looking to back all 3 selections.
Not a great 7 runner class 6 race where I think Javelin might be the favourite but this one might be better over further and with only Exceedingly Diva known to front run before the pace might not be run to suit it and this one my 2nd top rated so if getting an easy lead it could be hard to catch but I do have PORTO FERRO 6/1 a good few spots ahead, it will need to spring back to form but it will be the one carrying my money.
There's only 2 of the 10 runners that I can dismiss and would look to lay, Harrogate prefers really fast going but even then doesnt feature in my top 3 with its best time from way back in 2017 but could do best of the possible pace setters but I have got 3 rated higher and anyone of them could win this race, JACK TAYLOR 13/2 is 3rd best on times but has good trainer/jockey stats but its time was from 2018 but had a run 23 days ago over five and a half furlongs at Brighton where it led until tiring close home to finish 4th beaten by 3 lengths but it doesnt usually lead and that now looks as though they were out to blow the cobwebs away and has to be considered as possibly winning the race and the apprentice jockey does well for the stable, GRANDFATHER TOM 7/2 and WIFF WAFF 7/2 are my joint top rated the former won last time out and is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice which could tip things in its favour although im not sure if its definite positive or negative, the latter is being ridden by a top class jockey but this horse does seem to be hard to win with although it runs a decent race every time it runs and its last win was 10 runs ago, I will dutch all 3 in this race but maybe favouring the Richard Hughes trained horse.
A bit of a messy looking race especially when there aren't any known frontrunners in the field of 11 and I've narrowed it down to 4 and dutching them might be the way to go but my stakes won't be at full power, NATIONAL GLORY 9/1 comes out 4th but is on a losing run of 13, while RED TYCOON 16/1 hasn't won for 10 attempts and it doesn't have good trainer/jockey stats but it still comes out 2nd best, REAL ESTATE 4/1 won its last race and has been found a chance to follow it up here but the trainer has a poor 1-39 win rate here but the jockey is 2-2 for this stable so that looks a positive move, my top rated SPANISH STAR 13/2 also won its last race and the jockey is 1-2 for the stables older horses, I will dutch this race with the 2 that won last time out as my main bets and more like 2 covering bets on the other 2 horses mentioned.
Saving the best till last and this looks a decent class 6 all-weather race with 11 runners and only Royal Mezyan known as a front runner and it comes out 3rd best using a time from 2017 so it could go well if allowed an easy lead, others that could feasibly go well are Midnight Guest, Always Amazing, Alaskan Bay and possibly Flying Fox but the 2 I will be backing are, PRECIOUS PLUM 7/2 and KYLLUKEY 5/1, they are both from the stable of Charlie Wallis who has a 15% win ratio here with his older horses, both have good jockey bookings with 22 and 19 percent wins for the stable and I've only got 1lb between them so it looks like the stable are hoping to win this race but with which one I haven't got a clue.
NINJAGO actually comes out joint top rated but it's on a losing run of 21 and its 3 runs this year have been quite poor so not for me in this race but it is so poor it could possibly make the frame.
RED CYMBAL has only slow times over this distance and maybe doesn't want them going to be on the fast side of things and hasn't won in its last 12 races.
JESSIE ALLAN my joint 3rd top rated on a 2017 time, it is 10 runs since its last win but the jockeys 1-36 record for the stable puts me off but could feasibly make the frame.
HAVANA GO a 10 run maiden that looks, via its slow times, as though a longer trip might suit it better than this easy 6 furlongs so I would lay it if of any value.
RAFFLE KING this one has had 22 runs without finding the winners enclosure and pouring over its form it looks better over the shorter distance so another I would look to lay.
MR SHELBY the other joint 3rd top rated and it did its best time last year over this course and distance which is positive so could easily make the frame but hasn't won in its last 14 runs.
CUPID'S ARROW has only produced slow times over this distance and that's mainly down to the fact that it seems more at home with some cut in the going, so not for me here.
THE BULL hasn't run over this distance on grass before but I'm of the opinion that this distance will prove to be too short for it so another to maybe lay.
TADAANY this one looks as though it prefers some cut in the going as it has only produced slow times at this distance and it would maybe be better over a longer trip.
TAI SING YEH won its maiden on its 2nd start and hasn't won in 18 attempts since then and its another that may do better when racing over further than here.
LOULIN is a 4-year-old who has only had 11 races but hasn't won one of them but the best of its form seems to be over a shorter distance so not for me in this race.
STAR CRACKER won last time out at Newcastle where it led all the way on the Tapeta surface and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here back on the grass.
BRENDAN has won on an all-weather surface but over 5 furlongs while its 0-19 record on turf looks poor, so maybe better at shorter and a different surface so another I could lay.
RACQUET has a time from 2016 that would make it my 3rd top rated but its shown nothing of that calibre since and I can't see why that will change in this race, so another to lay.
JOEY BOY an 8 run maiden 3-year-old who finished 2nd once over 5 furlongs in slow time on the Tapeta surface and its turf form is quite poor I cannot fancy its chances here.
THORNTOUN LADY has been in poor form recently and its 15 races since it last won and it's another that looks better over a shorter distance but I couldn't back or lay this one confidently.
FIRSTEEN a three-year-old who has been placed 3 times but all in slow run races and may do better in time over a longer trip.
SUMMARY: Quite a poor class 6 race with 17 runners but several of them can easily be discarded leaving some that have shown a glimmer of hope, Thorntoun Lady and The Bull could improve on what they have shown so far as could the two 3-year-olds but I'm hoping none of them improves in this race, I think Jessie Allan, Mr Shelby and Racquet could battle to make the frame but I have got joint top rated horses in Ninjago and Star Cracker but the formers 21 runs losing streak and not any indication of it coming back to form puts me off so my money will be riding on STAR CRACKER 7/1 who won last time and has been found a chance to follow up here.
TOMILY usually stays on strongly at the end of the race but it's maybe got too much weight in this race, its 5th top on my figures but could make the frame if others falter.
BILLY DYLAN hasn't any form on this surface but it looks like it usually stays on at the end of its races but I'm not sure if this surface will suit it but not sure enough to lay it.
SOMETHING LUCKY it comes out 4th best on my figures and it's very versatile with its racing tactics so could make the frame here.
STEELRIVER hasn't won on the turf after 31 attempts which is very off-putting plus it seems better over further so I would look to lay this one if in a single figure price.
GREEN DOOR seems to be regressing and its best from 2017 wouldn't make it competitive in this race so another I will lay if any value in doing so.
GEORGE DRYDEN has a time from 2018 that would make it my 2nd top rating, the apprentice jockey hasn't ridden for this stable before so not sure what to expect but may need some luck from its stall 5 draw in the make-up of this race but could make the frame with a clear run.
CAPTAIN LARS is my top rated here and a possible pacesetter and stall 3 should be ideal in the make-up of this race, the trainer has a 22% win rate at this course and the apprentice jockey has a 17% win ratio.
GIFTED ZEBEDEE a 3-year-old which I know very little about it has, it does look to race prominently and with a clear run it could be dangerous on its handicap debut but on its tissue price it will be a double-figure price so maybe today won't be its day.
LUCKY CLOVER has a time from way back in 2016 that would put it 3rd spot but I expect it will need this race and be a big priced outsider.
PEARL OF QATAR another 3-year-old, looking through its limited form this surface may not suit it and it looks to be another outsider.
KYLLACHY PRINCESS the 3rd 3-year-old and is predicted to be the absolute outsider and I think it may be better running over further.
SUMMARY: A big smile on my face with a lovely all-weather sprint, the weather/rain and the overwatering of so many grass tracks ruins my blog so often its a joke, like this Saturday 18th, if I had known how slow Newmarket and Thirsk were running I wouldn't have given any selections so the only bet would have been at Doncaster where I tipped a 14/1 placed shot, maybe I should just concentrate on all-weather racing. Back to this race, I was quite confident about Captain Lars chance in this race but for some reason its a non runner which throws a big SPANNER in the works, GEORGE DRYDEN 10/1 is now top rated but its losing run of 16 is a bit off-putting so I will split my stake and also back SOMETHING LUCKY 4/1 but this is on a losing run of 15 which means my stakes will be kept low with so many negatives.
The 3 at the bottom of the handicap are capable of recording fast times but usually in lower class races so may struggle to win here but could feasibly make the frame if others falter, my joint 3rd top rated are Mr Orange a hold up type and Highly Sprung who has been known to lead before and I think stall 1 is ideal and could be hard to catch for most of the field and has to be considered as a possible winner if my top 2 dont get a clear run, but I have got Carlell Cleave rated 3 lbs higher in top spot but this one doesnt really want fast going but could run a big race my top rated is FIRMDECISIONS 12/1 who finished 2nd last time out at Leicester and recorded a time only 4lbs below its best from last year, this one started off as my 2nd top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim moves it to top pot and will be carrying my money as an each way bet, I wasnt really expecting such a big price, but my stakes won't be at full strength mainly because of its stall 11 draw and I will have a covering bet on Highly Sprung at 9/2
A strange race for a class 3 affair, there's a couple of known front runners but they are not in my top 4 ratings, Blue De Vega, Bowson Fred and Duke Of Firenze are my 4th to 2nd top rated and all 3 of them are on long losing runs and none of them wants the going to be really fast, while my top rated Nibras Again usually records its best times in lower class company so this race is maybe best left alone and watched.
A nice looking Listed class race but it might be a bit of a one-horse race if my figures are right, The Tin Man 13/8 is well known in this class of race but the price is way too short in my opinion, its last 4 runs in 2018 were all Group 1 races and it started off last year by winning this race and it's my 2nd top rated so could go well but it doesn't seem to want really fast going and its 7lb penalty for winning a Group 1 race on soft ground may mean it will struggle to give 7lbs to the improving EMBLAZONED 7/2 who ran a good race when 2nd last time out on soft going and will be much more at home on this faster ground and I have it a good few spots clear so will definitely be my bet in the race.
The 2 known front runners are not in my top 4 ratings so will most likely set the race up for a fast finisher unless one of them gets an easy lead and dictates at a slightly slower pace so its got enough in reserve to repel any challengers but I doubt that will happen here, Oeil De Tigre is capable of recording fast times but this 8-year-old usually does so in lower class than this class 3 affair, Tropics may be topweight but it still comes out 2nd top on my figures and is fit from a winter campaign on the all-weather tracks but I've got VEGAS BOY 7/2 rated 5 lbs higher and it has got a chance here to go one better than when finishing 2nd last time out at Ascot on good to soft ground so should relish this easier course and better going add on the 16% win ratio for the trainer at this course and the jockeys record is 20% win ratio for this stables older horses so I'm expecting connections think they have a decent chance here to get back to winning ways.
Rather unusual for a 5 furlong dash that's there's on 2 known front running types in the field of 17 but both are drawn high which is the favoured draw but neither are in my top 5 ratings so will most likely be setting the race up for one of the finishers, Lathom and Burmese Blazer can record fast times but usually in slightly lower class races but could make the frame, Excessable comes out 3rd best but stall 1 isn't ideal and will need some luck from such a low draw as will my 2nd top rated Duke Of Firenze who is in stall 5 and this ones 24 times raced losing run is off-putting plus it doesn't like really fast ground, my top rated is BASHIBA 10/1 who isn't ideally berthed in stall 9 and is on a 13 race losing run so any stakes in this race will be kept low in an each way bet.
In this 16 runner affair I've got ORION'S BOW 10/1 as my 4th top rated and in my opinion it could be the one to set the pace and stall 13 looks ideal, I think it could do enough to make the frame but not sure if it could hold on for the win but I will have a wager of some degree just in case it does lead all the way, Confessional has a good time recorded at Haydock and may find this trip too far on this course, Muscika is my 2nd top rated and usually stays on at the finish but again I'm not sure this undulating course will suit it, my top rated is JAWWAAL 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and in the make-up of this race stall 15 ought to be ideal for it to get a good tow into the race from which to attack close home but I will be going with 2 bets to cover both angles.
There's no known front runners in this race which is always a problem, Harry Hurricane comes out 3rd top using a 2018 time but its been 26 races since this one has won but it could feasibly make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Equimou who recorded its best time again last year but it was at Haydock so I'm not sure if this undulating course will suit it as well but my top rated recorded its best time at Salisbury so this course shouldn't hold any fears for RIO RONALDO 16/1 and the jockey booked here has a decent 17% win ratio for this stables older horses so I'm hoping that's an omen for my chances in this race but with such a big price it has to be an each way wager.
A big field of 18 makes analysis a lot harder and even looking at my top 6 ratings 5 of them have negatives against their names which points to them not performing to their best at this course and conditions on the day, Prestbury Park is my top-rated but this possible pacesetter is on a losing run of 17 which puts me off but it could easily spring back to winning ways as could many on losing runs, Bahamian Sunrise doesn't want really fast good to firm going and is on a 13 race losing run, Blazed likes to stay on strongly at the finish but has a 10 race losing run to overcome, Lucky Beggar actually won last time out but the trainer has a 0-41 record at this course, maybe the safest option is to side with ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 15/2 but stall 1 might not be ideal and most of the early pace is drawn high, I will probably dutch this race to varying stakes to cover the 5 I've mentioned maybe with the highest stakes on my selection and my top-rated horse.
On paper this looks a cracking class 2 handicap sprint but for betting purposes its a bloody nightmare mainly because the horse I fancied in this race ran Wednesday at York where I gave it a lay but if VIBRANT CHORDS 10/1 does turn out quickly it may be worth taking the tip and backing it but I doubt it will run and if it is a non runner I won't have a clue what to back and will most likely just watch the race and keep my money in my pocket.
This race is an apprentices race and they are not allowed to use their whips so I'm not clever enough to know which horses can run a true race without the use of the whip so the race is best left alone in betting terms but it could give some pointers for future races.
There are 12 runners here but only one known frontrunner in the race, the 3-year-old Miss Sabina could improve but it is quite early in the season in my opinion when the youngsters become more competitive, Black Salt and Cool Spirit could be hidden dangers here which means my stakes won't be at full power, Naples Bay a hold up type and Vallarta who can be held up or track the leaders are my joint 3rd top rated and either could feasibly make the frame, I will be backing 2 horses in this race to cover the angles as MR WAGYU 28/1 is my 2nd top rated and the only known frontrunner I mentioned earlier and could pinch the race from the front if allowed to dictate the early pace and has to be worth an each way bet at the price but I have got MUJASSAM 11/2 rated higher and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and I will be backing the pair of them.
Another race where I've got just one known frontrunner in the shape of Bronze Beau but this one is only 4th top on my ratings and should be setting the race up for a fast or strong finishing type, Highly Focussed won last time out and comes out 3rd best in this race and that fitness could pay dividends here, Oriental Splendour is on a losing run of 21 which is off-putting but its best time from Pontefract in 2017 would make it my 2nd top rated but its not shown enough recently to get me to back it, top on my figures is FUNKADELIC 14/1 who recorded its best time over this c/d last year, the trainer has a decent 17% win rate at this course with its older horse and the jockey has a 26% win ratio for this stable which is hopefully a positive pointer to connections expecting a big run in this race and will be burdened with my money in an each way bet at the price on offer.
A large field of 22 runners and 6 or 7 known front running types amongst them so if the going is ok then it should be a fast and furious affair, on my figures Dark Shot in stall 14 and Harome in stall 10 who are just outside my top 4 should be pushing for the lead, Henley can produce fast times but usually in lower class races plus its been out of form lately and I cannot see that changing here, Line Of Reason is on a losing run of 11 races and maybe age is catching up with this 9 year old, Outrage is capable of going well but its a long while since this one won on turf but it could feasibly make the frame if repeating its best time, Justanotherbottle is a front running sort drawn in stall 5 while most of the other early paced sorts are drawn in double figure stalls, it hasnt run for 236 days but has won before after a break so cannot be dismissed and I would probably have had a covering bet on it if I was certain of its fitness, the one that will be lumbered with my money is OPEN WIDE 18/1 who either likes to track the leaders or be held up for a late run and in stall 13 here it should get a good tow into the race and then hopefully stay on the stronger at the finish but with such a large field my stakes will not be at full strength but I expect its price to be in double figures so could be worth a small each way punt.