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Hi Traders, the EUR/USD is again trying to break below the key support zone at 1.1250. The success of the breakout depends on the reaction of the bullish pullback as price approaches key resistance at 1.13. The GBP/USD made a bearish bounce at the 21 ema zone and is now testing the 50% Fib again. Do you want to leave your feedback? Please write a review on Forex Peace Army. Ps. do not forget to check out our upcoming 4x Forex seminars on trading in Europe!

The EUR/USD bearish break below 1.1250 could indicate a bearish wave 3 whereas a break above 1.1340 makes a completed bearish ABC pattern more likely.

The GBP/USD needs to break below the 50% Fibonacci and support trend line before a move lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level becomes possible. A bullish breakout is only interesting if price manages to break above the 21 ema for the second time.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 14 – 16 Feb 2019:

  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis
  • Review of patterns, trends, key S&R levels
  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail
EUR/USD, GBP/USD video:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byT1Q2_UwQM]

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

Elite CurrenSea

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Hi traders,

the EUR/USD is again testing the support zone (blue lines) at 1.1250, which remains a major decision zone for a bullish breakout or bearish bounce. A bearish breakout could indicate a bearish wave 3 (red) whereas a bullish break confirms a bullish wave Y (purple).

EUR/USD 4 hour

The EUR/USD needs to push above the resistance trend line (red) or below the support trend lines (blue) before a trend direction can be established and confirmed. Price is currently either in a wave C (blue) of a larger bearish ABC zigzag or price is starting a larger downtrend via waves 123 (red).

1 hour  The EUR/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (orange) unless price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. In that case a larger bullish reversal could take place. A bearish bounce at the Fibs of wave 4 vs 3 could see price retest the support at 1.1250 again.

For more daily wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Good trading, Chris Svorcik

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Hi traders,
The RBNZ announced no change in their overnight cash rate but kept the next rate change window in the 2019-2020 range. The market including algos think that this is less dovish and the NZD jumped against majors.

However as long as the price is kept above 1.6540 we might see a correction as the price had been in uptrend before the RBNZ decision and statement. Usually, after a big spike there is a correction. 1.6580-90 zone might provide a correction towards 1.6660 ,1.6700 and 1.6720. However a correction will be subdued if the price closes below 1.6540. We need to keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday so profit taking will take place. If short traders close their shorts, the correction might reach the target.

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.CTT template.
Join Elite CurrenSea’s Forex and CFD seminar in The Netherlands on February 16th .

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.
Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

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Hi traders,

the GBP/USD made a bullish bounce at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B vs A. The direction of the next price swing will depend on the reaction at the resistance trend line (red) and whether price makes a bullish breakout or bearish continuation. Ps. do not forget to check out our upcoming 4x Forex seminars on trading in Europe!

GBP/USD 4 hour

The GBP/USD must break above the resistance trend lines before the end of the wave B (green) and the start of wave C (green) can be confirmed. Otherwise a deeper bearish retracement could take place and price could move lower to test the next Fibonacci retracement level which is the 61.8% Fib.

1 hour

The GBP/USD might be building a wave 1-2 (orange) but it is too soon to confirm. The wave patterns will depend on the price reaction at the support (green) and resistance (red) lines. At the moment it’s about a 50-50% chance whether price has already completed a bearish ABC (orange) or whether the wave C (orange) will end at a lower point.

For more daily wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik
Elite CurrenSea

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Hi Traders, the EUR/USD is breaking below the 21 ema for the 2nd time, which is making a bearish breakout more likely. A close below 1.1270 is needed to confirm it. The GBP/USD seems to be building a bullish ABC zigzag pattern. Do you want to leave your feedback? Please write a review on Forex Peace Army. Ps. do not forget to check out our upcoming 4x Forex seminars on trading in Europe! The EUR/USD will need to make a critical decision at the 1.1250 support zone by either showing a bullish bounce or a bearish breakout. A bullish bounce favours a bearish ABC pattern whereas a bearish break makes a 123 pattern more likely. The GBP/USD is in a downtrend and could aim for the 61.8% Fib at 1.2725 if price makes a corrective pattern such as a bear flag chart pattern. Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 12 – 13 Feb 2019:
  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis
  • Review of patterns, trends, key S&R levels
  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail
EUR/USD, GBP/USD video: [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRvb32JzbDY] Good trading, Chris Svorcik Elite CurrenSea

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Hi traders,

the USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend lines (dotted red) and could be building a bullish continuation within the wave 3 (light purple) pattern. To confirm a potential wave 3, however, price would need to break above the next trend line and start moving quickly towards the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1.

USD/JPY 4 hour

The USD/JPY bearish break below the support trend line (blue) invalidates the current wave pattern and could indicate a completion of the larger wave 1 (light purple) at the recent high.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an impulsuve breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted) which could indicate a wave 3 (blue) pattern. An immediate bullish continuation could see price move towards the 261.8% Fibonacci target of wave 3 vs 1 whereas a retracement could see price test the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue). A bullish bounce could see price move up as part of a wave 5 (purple) in wave 3 (pink).

For more daily wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Good trading, Chris Svorcik Elite CurrenSea

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Hi traders,

The retracement in EUR/JPY has come to important POC zone. 124.60-85 is the zone where the price might reject.

The POC zone aims for rejection. Adding to that is also the confluence of ATR and Camarillas. T-89 pattern showed up and coupled with historical sellers we could see 124.14 if momentum in the pair persists. Have in mind that the ATR high is 124.81 and if the price overshots the ATR, bears might be endangered. From R:R perspective the trade could be pretty much ok as the trend is still bearish. Further bearish momentum will happen on the price close below 124.53 D H3 camarilla.

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.

Join Elite CurrenSea’s Forex Live Education in upcoming months

For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.
Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea

3 Months of Free Signals

Trade with XM via ECS to Get Signals, SWAT & Up to 50% Discounts.

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Hi traders,

the EUR/JPY bullish bounce could indicate a potential wave 1-2 (pink) pattern. Price needs to break the resistance trend line (red) to confirm a bullish breakout within wave 3 (pink). Ps. do not forget to check out our upcoming 4x Forex seminars on trading in Europe!

EUR/JPY Daily

EUR/JPY seems to be building a bearish pullback towards the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 2 (pink). A break below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (pink) would invalidate the wave 2 (pink) pattern.

4 hour

EUR/JPY seems to be completing a bearish ABC (purple) corrective pattern back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (pink). A bullish reversal could take place at one of these Fibonacci levels as long as price stays above the support zone (blue box).

For more daily wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik
Elite CurrenSea

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Hi Traders, the EUR/USD is breaking below the 21 ema for the 2nd time, which is making a bearish breakout more likely. A close below 1.1270 is needed to confirm it. The GBP/USD seems to be building a bullish ABC zigzag pattern. Do you want to leave your feedback? Please write a review on Forex Peace Army. Ps. do not forget to check out our upcoming 4x Forex seminars on trading in Europe!

The EUR/USD would need to break above 1.14 before any bullish trade setups towards 1.15 are likely. A bearish breakout is aiming for the round level of 1.10 and the -27.2% Fibonacci target at 1.0860.

The GBP/USD seems to be ready for one more bullish swing towards the -27.2% Fibonacci target but remains vulnerable to price volatility based on Brexit news.

Check out the video below for the full analysis and trade plans on 10 – 11 Feb 2019:

  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD technical analysis
  • Review of patterns, trends, key S&R levels
  • Explanation of potential trade ideas both up and down
  • Beginner friendly, explaining concepts in more detail
EUR/USD, GBP/USD video: [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRJEKtRxLE]

Good trading, Chris Svorcik Elite CurrenSea

Trade or Invest with FXTM

Start with FXTM for superb trading conditions.

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Dear Traders,

Are you unsure how to find price swings on the chart? You are certainly not the only one. In fact, most traders struggle with finding the best price swing when analysing Forex & CFD markets – certainly beginners and even intermediate and advanced traders.

Identifying and determining the correct price swings is critical for analysing and trading charts because of its integral role in understanding chart patterns, placing the Fibonacci tool, and seeing the flow of price.

This article explains our 6 best methods for finding the best and correct price swing. Enjoy and please leave a comment if you think that the article helped you or if you have any questions.

Why Are Price Swings Important?

Price swings are crucial because of these eight reasons:

  1. It allows traders to understand which price swing they are currently trading.
  2. It explains what the expect from the current swing in terms of movement and volatility (impulse versus correction).
  3. It indicates what the direction of the next price swing could be.
  4. It also shows whether the next price swing will be corrective or impulsive.
  5. Traders can do wave analysis and understand wave patterns based on price swings, which are the building blocks of swings.
  6. Traders can use the Fibonacci tool with more accuracy and precision.
  7. Traders are better able to estimate the time aspect and expected length of a trade setup.
  8. Traders can identify patterns quicker and easier.

Traders must have a clear and logical system of identifying one price swing because without a rules based approach, traders will misinterpret the chart and always be unsure about their analysis. In fact, most traders fail in trading, mastering the waves, and trading the waves because they do not use a systematic method for understanding and reading price swings.

Based on above info, traders can make better decisions about their trades, such as skipping setups, managing open trades, and entering trade setups. Price swings are not the only factor for trading decisions, of course, but certainly play a key role in our trading and also our technical and wave analysis.

When you are able to identify price swings, then we have a significant edge over a larger group of traders who are not aware of price swings, price patterns, impulse and correction.

All in all, it is very important to use a systematic approach for spotting price swings. Traders need to know the start and end of such swings.

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Identifying Price Swings

The ecs.SWAT method uses six distinct approaches to find and identify the correct AND best price swings:

  • Time patterns
  • HMA moving average
  • Wave patterns
  • Momentum and correction
  • AO and ecs.MACD

Be aware that all six methods could provide different price swings because in some cases, multiple swings could actually be equally logical. It is up to the trader to choose the price swing that makes the most sense but the mentioned methods will help a lot.

Also please note that one method is not better than the other. All of them are useful and traders can analyse and compare multiple methods before making a final decision about which price swings are visible on the chart.

ecs.Fractal Indicator

The fractal indicator helps traders find key support and resistance and potential turning spots on the chart. Traders can either use the standard fractal indicator on their platform or use the ECS fractal indicator for the MetaTrader4 platform. Each fractal indicator, just like the HMA moving average, are automatically plotted on the chart.

Here are the details:

  • If price is moving fast into one direction then no fractals will appear, which is an impulsive price swing.
  • If many support and resistance fractals appear, then price is building corrective price swing(s) because price is turning up and down – hence it is creating the fractals.

A trader can use the points from one fractal to the next fractal as a price swing. The price action between a support and a resistance fractal could be considered as a separate price swing. If there are two fractals on the same side (either at support or resistance), then it is best to use the fractal that provides the longest price swing. Simply said, all price action between one support and one resistance fractal is considered a price swing.

Here below we added an image. All the purple boxes and arrows have been added to indicate the start and end of each price swing. Each arrow is one price swing. The orange box represents fractals that are not used for a price swing because there are 2x support or resistance fractals present. As mentioned above, a larger price swing is chosen in this case.

For more information about the fractal indicator, check out the below videos as well.

Learn why the fractal indicator is a must for traders:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vzwa9uNclu0]

And the second vide, which is a guide to the ECS fractal indicator:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUBviUV2q9w]

Time Patterns and Zigzag Pattern

Time patterns are already visible when using the ECS fractal indicator but they deserve their own paragraph for determining swings. Time patterns in fact are a key part of the pattern family (but that’s a story for another article) but explaining the entire concept here is asking too much.

For the moment, it’s best to use automated tools that represent time patterns by using a fractal indicator (with value 5 rather than 2 if you can change it in your trading platform) or the zigzag indicator with settings 10-5-3 (depth-deviation-backstep) for finding intermediate price swings on the the chart that closely reflect the idea used with time patterns.

Let’s first start with a fractal indicator value of 5 (if your platform allows you to change the fractal value, which not always the case). What does that mean? Let’s explain:

  • A candle will either make a higher high or lower high and lower low or higher low when you compare the current to the previous candle.
  • A higher high and lower low confirm a trend (new high confirms uptrend and new low confirms downtrend).
  • When price shows multiple higher highs or lower lows, there is strong impulsive price action taking place, which is one price swing.
  • The impulsive price swing is considered to be over once 5 to 6 candles fail to break the last high or low.
  • Then a price swing can be marked as completed and a new price swing is starting.

All of these purple boxes indicate a high or low that is higher or lower than 5 candles to the left and 5 candles to the right. All of the purple boxes are also a fractal but as you can see from the image, there are many fractals that did not qualify when using a setting of 5 candles. All the purples arrows indicate a price swing.

The image below shows the price swings that are valid for the zigzag indicator. Some of the price swings are similar to the time pattern ones, but there are a couple or price swings that are actually excluded as well.

HMA Moving Average

The HMA moving average (setting 20) helps identify what is momentum and what is correction. A switch from bearish to bullish and vice versa often is a warning signal that a swing might be completed. The HMA is a fully automated indicator and hence removes any need for discretionary decisions.

Candles that are moving around the HMA are often periods of correction.The HMA angle will frequently switch from up to down and down to up and when price is in a range whereas a trend will create a sustained HMA angle for a longer period of time.

Another perspective to consider is the candlesticks versus the HMA. When the candle is fully above or below the HMA, then this often indicates a decent or strong momentum.

The image below shows how price is in a range and builds several swings up and down within the range before moving down lower with a strong impulse. The HMA stays bearish until there is a small pullback before continuing lower again with a bearish HMA. Each HMA change can be considered a completed swing.

Price action at the top is corrective, the price drop is impulsive.

Wave Patterns

Knowing the Elliott Wave Theory helps you identify price swings too. When price is building a specific wave (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C, D, E, W, X, or Y), it will help traders understand what can be considered one full price swing. A wave 1 for instance is clearly a separate swing from a wave 2. An ABC correction too has 3 swings.

For understanding wave analysis in a deeper context, visit our ecs.SWAT method or check out this Ultimate FIbonacci and Wave guide.

The moving averages can help with identifying the correct wave patterns (see image below). As you can see the waves 2 and 4 dipped below the moving average zone. More information on this can be found, once again, in the ecs.SWAT method.

Awesome Oscillator or ecs.MACD

Elite CurrenSea uses the Awesome Oscillator or our premium and proprietary ecs.MACD indicator as a swing and wave trend indicator.

Read this article for a full overview how to use the AO and ecs.MACD for swings.

Momentum and Correction

Elite CurrenSea has already explained the full detail of how to read impulsive and corrective price action in a previous article.

Read this article for a full overview how to use impulse and correction for swings..

Make sure to stayed tuned in to our blog for all of the latest updates!

Join ecs.LIVE for our latest and daily trade setups and live analysis.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik
And the entire Elite CurrenSea team

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Trade with propriatory award-winning tools & indicators.

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