Non-Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics. Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable.
Bitcoin is the proxy for those blockchain secure entities which cut across and cut out the old hegemonic transactional systems, where in the new transactions are sophisticatively computerized, securitized, and denationalized … denominated in units which AI can appreciate …
Disclosures … figure it out…
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The total value of assets and debt instruments as assets of the global macroeconomic system supports the total value of the system. Only through the net positive expansion of integral total system private citizen, corporate, state, and central bank debt growth can the system’s first derivative of total valuation remain positive.
The major inflection points of the macroeconomic’s system’s peak valuations and nadir valuations represent the first derivative zero levels of global net debt growth and net bad debt liquidation, respectively.
Where is the system in relation to its major peak inflection first derivative zero point of net debt expansion?
Very very close … but first an expected mathematical blow-off conforming to a 16/40/40 hegemonic perfect fractal pattern.
The US hegemonic system will reach only year 88 of a potential 90-91 third fractal maximal year peak of a 1807 potential 36+/90-91/90-91 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x blow-off series.
Asset Debt Macroeconomic Fractalism: the new patterned science of the Global Macroeconomic System.
European commodities prices nadired in 1844. US cotton prices which supported US foreign debt nadired in 1843.
With its 18 year initiating fractal sequence, what is the exact final year, month, and week of the 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x :: 37/90/90 year final US hegemonic blow-off?
The new global transactional asset class whose subentities would logically appeal to the most sophisticated of the coming AI entities have declared the fractal time frame to the peak valuation of the US Hegemonic blow-off.
The Deterministic Self-ordering Self-Assembling Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System
The current fractal decay pattern and the nadir valuations for the current hegemonic US Asset Debt Economic system confirms the determinism of the system which importantly provides information about the future.
The SPX equity valuation daily decay pattern for the 26 month second fractal began on 15 August 2018 and was a 17 day(3/6/6/5)/37day (8/18/13)/38 day (6/14/13/9-10) or 17/37/39-40 day :: Y/2-2.5Y/2-2.5Y Lammert Decay Fractal.
The 10-11 month base for the 26 month second fractal included 4 weeks from 20 Jan 2016 to 11 February 2016. The 11 month fractal pattern starting on 20 January was 2/5/4/3 months. The 26 month second fractal to this 11 month base was composed of two subfractals: 3/8/6/4 and 2/5/4 months.
The third fractal blow-off to this 10-11/26 month series is expected to peak at 17 months completing a March 2009 45/90 month :: x:2x first and second fractal series. This occurs within the terminal US third fractal blow-off of about 90 years starting in 1932 and completing a peak (1/2x)/x/2.5x/2.5x valuation of a 1790 US (18)36/90/89 year US hegemonic fractal series.
Growth and decay of the Global Asset Debt Macroeconomic System occurs in a deterministic mathematical fractal pattern. The reinforcing bubble elements of bad debt creation which cannot be repaid; asset over investment, over production, and over valuation; and job creation which has in the past – with ongoing government debt – provided the basis for debt expansion (now greatly supplemented with the addition of the central bank ex nihilo money creation and debt formation) – are all counterbalanced and controlled within the deterministic fractal maximal growth and decay mathematical patterns that underlie and define the global macroeconomic system. These underlying and observable fractal patterns represent the mathematical laws and the real observable science of the global macroeconomic system.
Subfractal and fractal units are determined by the nadir lows.
The sub fractal anatomy of a x/2-2.5y/1.5-1.6y decay fractal ending a 10/25 month first and second fractal series of a 10/25/20 month blow-off progression within the 89 year third fractal terminal portion a 36/90/89 year x/2.5x/2.5x Hegemonic fractal blow-off progression of a 1807 213 year US macroeconomc asset-debt system.
The terminal portion of a 25 month second fractal … to a 10 month first fractal base. Expect a flash crash.
First growth fractal 3/6/6/5 days = 17 days
Second decay fractal composed of three subfractals
a. 3/6/6/4. 16 days. x/2x/2x/1.5y series
b. 2/5/5 days 10 days x/2.5y/2.5y. series
c. 3/8/4 days 13 days. x/2.5y/1.5y
total: 37 days
Third decay fractal
5/13/ 2 of 7 days 23 days. x/2.5y/1.5y
Final decay fractal for 10/25 month fractal is 17/37/23 days : x/2y/1.5y
Expect 10/25 terminal second fractal nonlinearity … (the 10 May 2010 5/12 month terminal second fractal nonlinearity revisited …)
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A March 2009 5/12 month (18/44 weeks) nonlinear flash crash occurred on 10 May 2010. This was an expected nonlinearity within the new simple fractal model that appears, in a scientific patterned manner, to be governing mathematical model for the global asset debt macroeconomic system. Using the Wilshire 5000 as the global system’s hegemonic proxy, the system is now at a 10/25 month :: x/ 2.5x subfractal junture in a x/2.5x/2x-2.5x or 10/25/20-25 month blow-off that will take the system to its peak 2020 valuation apogee. Nvdia, the proxy for new 21st century human entertainment and human replacement technology saw nonlinearity on 16 November 2018. As with the flash crash on 10 May 2010 expect more nonlinearity over the next 7 trading days … prior to the 20-25 month global equity blow-off. While US consumers are at record debt levels, they are also at near record absolute employment numbers with relatively low interest rates and generous debt terms to further expand, with further debt load expansion, the US and global economy during the next 20-25 months.
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Is there a (remarkable) mathematical order to the global asset debt macroeconomic system?
Observe the ordered valuation patterns using the underlying asymptotic line defining the low valuations of the grouped Lammert fractals since the March 2009 lows for the hegemonic Wilshire 5000 and the other leading global EuroAsian Equity markets.
Observe the simple growth and decay fractal patterns described in the 2005 and 2009 postings: 2/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and y/2-2.5y/2-2-5y and ask if these subsequence patterns have occurred by chance or rather are they transpiring by inexorably deterministic causal mechanisms inherent to the asset debt global macroeconomic system?
SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2009
Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics – A New Science
THIS BLOG EXPLORES THE NEW SCIENCE OF NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS, A MAJOR OBSERVATIONAL DISCOVERY. THE MACROECOMONY IS A SELF BALANCING COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ASSETS AND DEBT OPERATING ACCORDING TO SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL LAWS OF GROWTH AND DECAY OF ITS ASSET VALUATION CURVES:: X/2.5X/2X/1.5X AND Y/2-2.5Y/1.5-2.5Y
Now consider a minor aberration in the underlying asymptotic low to low composite equity valuations caused by ex nihilo money printing and near zero and in Europe negative interest rates
aka quantitative easing, and stimulus programs such as cash for clunkers and created cash for unfunded, nonperforming aliens Entering European and American borders supported by fiat Euro and US dollar?
Now consider the long pattern of the great hegemonic Roman Republic replacement, the United States of America, protected by the expanses of two great oceans from
domestic local ravishes of the effects of World War I and 2 had on other participating winning and losing nations.
The hegemonic fractals series of the US appears to begin with an initiating fractal of 18 years from 1790 to 1807 nearly concurrent with the ratification of the US constitution.
Since 1807 there has been a 37/90/87 of 90 year blowoff of a x/2.5x/2.5x pattern which would end in 2020-21.
The March 2009 Wilshire pattern is a 5/13/10/7 and 3/7/6 months or 45 months base fractal
The second is a 8/17/17 or 40 months fractal
followed by a 10/25 of 25/1 of 20-25 month blow-off fractal.
This makes qualitative and quantitative sense under the Umbrella of a (18)36-37/90/89-90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x United States Hegemonic Fractal Series