10 week average is purple dotted line in this weekly chart. The major bullish sign here is the fact that the 30 week average (red line) is turning up. However, it still looks like a failed GLB and a possible double top.
A close of QQQ today above 185.14 would put QQQ back above all 12 daily moving averages and may suggest the start of a new RWB up-trend. Dotted line is daily close. Daily RWB= red white and blue up-trend with all shorter daily averages (red lines) above all longer daily averages (blue lines). Stay tuned.
When RWB pattern resumes it will be time for me to wade into the market. RWB up-trend occurs when all shorter averages (red lines) are rising well above longer term averages (blue lines). Will a BWR down-trend emerge?
Some stocks remain in nice RWB up-trends, like $MTCH, which had a recent GLB and resisted the market decline (great relative strength!). Dotted line is daily close.
Eleven US stocks (out of more than 4,000) that meet my stringent technical criteria and that are worthy of research. All are currently at least double their closes of a year ago, an important criterion of technical strength used by Nicolas Darvas. Note their next earnings dates.
To survive, I must conserve my trading capital. My trading accounts are therefore in cash. The GMI may flash Red at the close on Tuesday. It is much easier to make money on the long side when the GMI is strong and Green. GMI= my General Market Index. The GMI keeps me trading with the market trend. Unfortunately, once again, I failed to buy a little SQQQ on the first day of the QQQ short term down-trend. QQQ is now below its 10 week moving average (purple dotted line on this weekly chart). Note the failed GLB (green line break-out), a major sign of weakness.
Meanwhile, T2108 is only at 36%, not low enough for a major bottom.
Since the first week in January after the market bottom, the QQQ has closed above its rising 4 week average every week except once in early March (A) and last week (B). Closing above the rising 4 week average is a sign of a strong advance. This week the market will reveal its short term direction by whether the QQQ can regain and close above its 4 week average (red dotted line). A close below the 10 week average (purple dotted line) would indicate a significant decline. Failure of the recent GLB is another major sign of weakness.
Some stocks are still hitting all-time highs. OLLI had a GLB last week. It has closed above its 4 week moving average the past 7 weeks.
With a flat or down day on Thursday, the QQQ short term up-trend, in its 83rd day, will end. Since 1990, the longest short term up-trend has been 88 days. However, the end of an up-trend is not necessarily followed by a long down-trend. Stay tuned….
The three index ETFs failed to hold their recent green line break-outs (GLB) to all-time highs. Failure of a GLB can be a serious sign of impending near term technical weakness. Tuesday was the 82nd day of the QQQ short term up-trend and is approaching the longest short term up-trend (88 days) since 1990. This fact, alone, suggested to me that we would experience some weakness. Tuesday’s high volume decline indicates an IBD type distribution day.