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Coming into this season, every Toronto Maple Leafs fan expected number-one defenceman Morgan Rielly to be his usual offensively-capable skater, but he took it to a whole new level for his 2018-19 season.

A mostly-unknown prospect when the Leafs took him at fifth overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, Rielly has developed into a powerhouse offensive defenceman that fits perfectly into what style the club wants to play.

Joining the rush with the ability to make tape-to-tape passes or put the puck into the back of the net himself, the 25-year-old blue liner will make opposing defences sweat when he’s on the ice.

If he’s able to fix his other side of the game, there’s no doubt that he will be in the conversation for top defencemen in the entire NHL.

Season Recap

Scoring a career-high 20 goals and 72 points, Rielly really showed every Leafs fan and the hockey world in general where he lies in the echelon of defencemen in the NHL.

In his sixth NHL season, he’s considered a veteran player now, as weird as that sounds. His prescence on the ice could not go unnoticed this season, hitting that goal mark and contributing so much offensively is what you want to see from the Vancouver native.

Playing all 82 games in the regular season and all seven in the playoffs, Rielly has blessed the Leafs with no major history of injuries or health problems. He will be there everyday and be extremely hard to replace.

Unfortunately, he had to play 71% of his time-on-ice with Ron Hainsey. Not saying that Hainsey is horrible, but it could have been better, especially when most of Rielly’s numbers away from Hainsey are better than with him. His shot attempt percentage improves by almost five percent, his expected goals against rate decreases significantly — if Hainsey is returning, then maybe we’ll just continue to never see Rielly fully blossom into the unruly defenceman we hope for.

Stats and Charts
5v5 P/60 P1/60 CF% CF/60 CA/60 GF% xGF% xGF/60 xGA/60
RATES 1.64 1.08 51.40 68.69 64.94 59.28 50.36 2.84 2.80
RELATIVE -0.54 6.51 7.41 8.09 -0.56 0.46 0.5

You can’t ask for much better from your top defenceman. The percentages for actual goals scored approaching 60% and having a positive impact on the game overall. But when it comes to defending, Rielly isn’t the key player you look towards.

His offensive numbers are absolutely astronomical — his xGF/60 of 2.84 is seventh among all NHL defenceman (min. 250 TOI) and his 68.69 CF/60 ranks fifth in the same category.

But defensively, Rielly has struggled this season. His xGA/60 of 2.80 is seventh-worst among that same category of defenceman, meaning that he is an extremely high-risk, high-reward defenceman. Those numbers can improve if some linemates or tactics change, but all of that taken out of the equation, Rielly is still lacking.

via evolving-hockey.com

Probably the most stark representation of Rielly as a player, his RAPM chart beautifully describes the fact that Rielly is among the NHL elite offensively, but among the goons of the NHL when it comes to defence.

On the power play, of course Rielly is elite and a top-3 quarterback on the man advantage in the league, but since the Leafs don’t get a lot of penalties going their way, it’s unfortunate.

But one way that Rielly has greatly contributed to the Leafs this season is his goalscoring. As described earlier this year, he has a unique ability of actually scoring well-thought-out goals for a player in his position.

Unlike most defencemen we see now, Rielly doesn’t have a giant slapshot from the point, but a sneaky way of getting behind opposing forwards and using his wristshot to put the puck behind the goalie. Rather than just mindlessly shooting from 30 feet out, *cough* Brent Burns *cough*, Rielly has the skill to increase the likelihood of the puck actually going in with his skating and shooting skill.

Preseason Predictions

Here’s what Scott Maxwell had to say about Rielly before the season started:

At this point in his career, we’ve already established what kind of defenseman Morgan Rielly is. While he could be given more reasonable minutes, he doesn’t do terrible in tough minutes, and that’s better than getting destroyed in those minutes, and that allows the rest of the lineup to excel (although it would be great if his partner wasn’t Ron Hainsey this year).

What should we expect from Rielly this year? He set a career high in points last year, mostly because he finally got a spot on the power play and got a lot of power play points this year, so if the power play this year is apparently going to be insane this year, it wouldn’t be outlandish to say he stays in the ballpark of 50 points, and *maybe* even gets more. His even strength point production probably stays the same, but his power play production might get higher.

Well we’re clearly experts here. Rielly did see an increase in power play opportunities and therefore increased his production. He broke that 50-point prediction handedly as well.

He did sacrifice a little bit of defence for more offence this season, but since he played so much against top forwards, that might have been expected. The high-risk, high-reward player worked for the regular season at least.

Highlights
Morgan Rielly’s One-Timer Finds Room Between The Post, Tuukka Rask - YouTube

If only his goal meant a little more and we got to see that one-timer against Columbus, but alas.

Grade

It’s difficult to grade a player that is so heavily depended on like Rielly. His production and results clearly point towards him doing an excellent job, but being in the bottom-tier of defenders when they don’t have the puck, doesn’t sit well.

He surpassed the high expectations he had before the season started and broke records, so bumping him down for giving up some high-quality chances when he’s next to Ron Hainsey seems a little cruel.

For that, he will get a solid A.

Final Thoughts

With the likely exit of long-time friend and past roommate Jake Gardiner, Rielly may need some added depth behind him. If Hainsey departs as well, then maybe we’ll see some improvement on his defensive numbers, but sacrificing some offence. If that leads to more wins, who the hell cares.

Jake Muzzin, Travis Dermott, Nikita Zaitsev and Calle Rosen are the defencemen that will be on the Leafs for the majority of next season, barring any trades. It’s decent, but not championship-calibre. Dubas will have his work cut out for him with upcoming contract negotiations, but if he’s also able to swing a trade for any top-four defenceman, it would go a long way to putting Rielly up among the top defencemen overall.

It will be an interesting offseason followed by an extremely interesting 2019-20 season, so we shall see what Rielly can do with any new teammates.

There is no doubt in my mind that if Rielly continues with this success and improves his defence, in a decade from now they will be talking about him as the best defenceman the Leafs have ever had.

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Everyone assumed with his two-year contract expiring on July 1 that the Ron Hainsey era in Toronto was going to be over. But is it?

Bob McKenzie was talking about some Leafs-related stuff on his podcast and one of the things that came up was the possibility of the veteran defender re-joining the team on a one-year deal.

Oh my god he also said the Leafs will probably try to bring back Hainsey on a one year and run him with Rielly again.

— Ryan (@ryanfancey) May 17, 2019

Hainsey, of course, spent the majority of the season as the stay-at-home defender alongside the more offensively-oriented Morgan Rielly. The two played 1066:45 together at even strength and produced a 49.6 Corsi For percentage and a 58.8 Goals For percentage. In the 293:31 even strength minutes the two didn’t play together, Rielly put up superior numbers both in terms of shot attempt and goal differential while Hainsey’s numbers diminished substantially.

As of right now, the Leafs are rolling into 2019-20 with Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Nikita Zaitsev as the three veterans on the blueline. Travis Dermott is having off-season surgery and won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. Calle Rosen, Rasmus Sandin, and Timothy Liljegren will be in the mix to crack the Leafs’ blueline in Dermott’s place.

There’s a lot that can happen between now and October. The Leafs could re-sign Jake Gardiner to a hometown deal. They could add some other out-of-the-blue veteran defender. They could trade Zaitsev as a cap dump. They could let Mitch Marner take an offer sheet and sign Erik Karlsson. Who knows! It’s difficult to predict exactly what the blueline will look like, but there’s merit to suggesting Hainsey return on a cheap deal to add some veteran depth.

I mean, the idea of him continuing to play 20 minutes a game with Rielly is kind of disturbing, but Hainsey could probably be a solid player in a bottom-pairing role. Given how quickly Toronto’s blueline deteriorated with injuries to Gardiner and Dermott late in the season, having veteran depth isn’t the worst idea.

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There isn’t a whole lot of history to go on with Dubas and later draft picks. In fact we don’t even have a whole lot to go on early draft picks, but since the Leafs find themselves without a first round pick this year, perhaps it’s worth taking a look at a few of the 2nd round picks that have been made since Kyle Dubas joined the organization, and assign credit/blame to Dubas, Lamoriello, or Hunter, and try to establish if there’s any trend with these selections.

Travis Dermott 2015 2nd Round (34th overall)

Late in the first the Leafs were riding the high of selecting Mitch Marner, and the Leafs are ready to make their second selection of the first round with Travis Konecny still available. Instead of going for the offensive talent who many scouting services had ranked within the top 15 of the draft, Kyle Dubas (along with Mark Hunter as co-GM) opted to trade down for the 29th overall pick and the 61st overall pick. The 29th overall pick would then be turned into this 34th overall pick, and a 3rd round pick used to select Martins Dzierkals.

Konecny has proven himself to be a solid second line scoring talent in the NHL, but considering his production mirrors that of Kasperi Kapanen, and Andreas Johnsson, it seems the Leafs made the right decision by trading down to get the defenseman they wanted.

The Dermott selection is interesting since he wasn’t necessarily a player associated with going in the top 40 and the fact that he was taken right before Sebastian Aho isn’t something that is lost on a lot of people, but this appears to be the case of the Leafs having a specific player in mind that they want, and were going to take him a point they felt they could do so.

The result is that Dermott has been solid for the Leafs over the past season and a half, and could potentially push for a top four role once he recovers from his injury. Selecting Dermott over an undersized 20 goal scorer appears to be the right move.

Jeremy Bracco 2015 2nd Round (61st overall)

Remember that 61st overall acquired in the first trade moving down to select Dermott? Well, that pick turned into Jeremy Bracco.

Bracco was a player many scouting services considered a potential 1st rounder. Bracco’s size and the depth of the US National Team Development Program probably made him standout as a potential risk, as well as there was some uncertainty over where Bracco would play in the upcoming season.

Bracco represents a chance to swing for the fences on skill, and his recent AHL season supports that the risk could soon payoff as Bracco could be an affordable complimentary offensive player for the Leafs in the near future.

The idea of grabbing a highly touted prospect who has been sliding in the draft seems to be another trend that’s forming.

Yegor Korshkov 2016 2nd Round (31st overall)

The Co-GM/No GM era of Shanahan/Dubas/Hunter was short lived and that meant Lou Lamoriello taking over the draft table in 2016. Kyle Dubas was put in charge of the Marlies and leading the hockey research and development department, while Mark Hunter played a more significant role in the draft. That’s not to say that Dubas didn’t have a voice at the table on any of these selections, but Korshkov doesn’t seem to fit with the selections seen in 2015.

That’s not to say that Korshkov is a bad player. We’ve been down this road many times before. And that’s also not to say that if Dubas was running the draft that he would have taken DeBrincat or Girard. In fact there are a lot of names that were highly touted selected after Korshkov who seem like their careers will not include the NHL. Dubas chose not to draft Konecny. He valued Dermott over Aho. It happens in drafting. A lot.

Anyways, Korshkov was an overager with some size and was already building a KHL resume. Pick Korshkov in the 3rd round would be something that Leafs fans would likely have been thrilled over, or at the very least quite tolerant of.

The fact that Korshkov could be playing in the NHL next season shows this pick wasn’t a waste, and given the fact that Dubas has since demonstrated that he won’t shy away from using picks on overagers, this could have been a decision he was involved in. Remember that Korshkov was the first selection on the second day of the draft. The Leafs had an entire night to go over their draft lists and review who had been taken previously to make this call.

Carl Grundstrom 2016 2nd Round (57th overall)

The Grundstrom selection seems to mirror the Bracco selection in a lot of ways. Grundstrom was a player some draft experts had pegged for a potential late first round pick, instead he’s sitting on the draft board at 57.

While he’s definitely more of a physical player than Bracco, his style of play was a lot closer to what we see from Zach Hyman than Jeremy Bracco, and he was a pretty solid risk worth taking.

Grundstrom, of course, was part of the deal to acquire Jake Muzzin, so he was ultimately not part of the long term plans for the Leafs under Dubas, but given the Leafs wing depth and the fact that Grundstrom was essentially NHL ready at the time of the deal, it seems like a measure move.

Eemeli Rasanen 2017 2nd Round (59th overall)

I’m not sure we can take away a whole lot from this selection in regards to how Dubas would approach the draft. Selecting a 6’7 stay at home defenseman in the 2nd round doesn’t seem like a move we’d see again, but it’s also worth noting the 2017 draft won’t be regarded as deep and this was a reasonable shot in the dark.

Rasanen ended up leaving the OHL for the KHL where he’s spent a lot of the past season as a healthy scratch. He’s also re-upped for another tour of duty there. Perhaps the takeaway on Rasanen is that of the five players we’ve discussed so far, he’s the one we should be forgetting about.

Sean Durzi 2018 2nd Round (52nd overall)

Okay, so here’s the one pick that we can entirely attribute to Kyle Dubas. He took a defenseman, which appears to be drafting for need (although it’s always more complicated than that.) He drafted from the OHL, the league he’s most familiar with. He drafted an overager, and Durzi wasn’t the only overager taken by Dubas in the draft. And he drafted a puck mover who was been over a point per game for the past two seasons.

Sean Durzi, like Carl Grundstrom was included in the trade for Jake Muzzin, and perhaps that was the best possible use for a strong performing 2nd round pick. It will be interesting to see what come of Durzi to learn what to expect of Dubas’ selections outside the first round, but for now I’m happy that he was good enough to help land the defenseman the Leafs desperately needed.

Key Learnings
  1. There’s definitely a preference to the OHL. That’s really not surprising as it’s deepest junior league with the best development resources. It’s also the league that Dubas knows best and has the strongest network within.
  2. Twice the Leafs have gone with overagers in the second round during Dubas’ time with the Leafs. Korshkov might not have been a decision that Dubas directly supported, but there is no doubt that Sean Durzi was a decision of his.
  3. Three of the six selections have been OHL defensemen, and Dermott and Durzi who Dubas was most involved in selecting, were offensively skilled defensemen.
  4. Grundstrom and Bracco show the Leafs aren’t afraid to take a chance on someone sliding in the draft. That should be encouraging for a draft that is somewhat deep and wide open after pick 20.
  5. The trading down seems to happen only in the first round and once the 2nd pick is established, Dubas is going to make it.

Anyways, there isn’t a whole lot to go on as second round trends, especially since we’re mainly leaning on the 2015 and 2018 draft to draw conclusions from. The encouraging part though is that those have been two of the stronger beyond the first round drafts in recent history for the Leafs, and even if the selection spots in the draft are underwhelming, the Leafs could have a strong day two in Vancouver.

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In the first offseason trade bait board presented by Frank Seravalli of TSN, there are just fifteen names listed as the most likely players to be dealt this summer. Former Leaf and two-time Cup champion Phil Kessel heads up the list, which isn’t surprising considering most hockey media are bracing for the Penguins to do a semi-blowup of their roster in the coming months.

But there’s plenty to dig into with regard to the Leafs as well. Even though just fifteen players populate the list, two are Leafs, and I’d say at least two more will have their names connected to Toronto in trade rumours. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev are ranked 7th and 12th respectively, so we’ll get into those guys first before looking elsewhere.

1. Phil Kessel
2. Jacob Trouba
3. Ryan Callahan
4. Jason Zucker
5. P.K. Subban
6. Michael Frolik
7. Connor Brown
8. Kyle Turris
9. Kevin Shattenkirk
10. Artemi Panarin (rights)
11. Travis Hamonic
12. Nikita Zaitsev
13. Olli Maatta
14. Colin Miller
15. Milan Lucic

Brown has been floated out there as a casualty of the Leafs’ salary cap situation for a while now, as his 2.1-million AAV is easily movable given he’s a pretty solid player but just doesn’t have anywhere to go in the Leafs’ lineup beyond a bottom six role. For those minutes, a cheap Marlies player makes more sense, so Brown is almost surely gone this summer.

But I don’t think this necessarily has to be a pure salary dump situation. Brown was rumoured to be part of a potential deal with Edmonton at the deadline that could have seen Toronto receiving Adam Larsson in return. You’d assume there’s a bit more at play here, but it goes to show this might be more about shifting money around and addressing right defence needs all in one go than just getting rid of Brown for a pick.

Zaitsev’s situation is different. Toronto has been trying hard (and failing) to move his contract (4.5-million x 5 remaining) since Dubas took over full time last summer. They would likely have to add to the deal in order to get a team to bail them out of that situation, so we’re probably looking at a pick or prospect going out with him and some shorter term money coming back that’s perhaps more buyout friendly. This is a tough move to make but it would help the Leafs a ton if they can get it done and try to fix Lou Lamoriello’s biggest mistake in his short time as Toronto’s general manager.

Elsewhere on the list we have five right-handed defencemen, and you could see at least three of them being real targets for the Leafs. Colin Miller has a Soo connection to Dubas and would make a lot of sense as a relatively low-risk option (3.875-million x 3 remaining), and Toronto made a huge push for Travis Hamonic (3.85 x 1) when he was being offered from the Isles a couple years back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Leafs kicking tires on either of these guys.

If you want the more nuclear options, Trouba and Subban slot in quite high on this list, and those are the types of names Toronto will look at if they really want to address this RHD situation and turn it from a glaring weakness to a strength. Trouba is a pending RFA in need of a new deal, while Subban has just three years remaining at $9-million AAV that will take him to age 32. Those are obviously extremely difficult deals to work out, and would shift the entire make-up of the Leafs roster. But Dubas has already shown in just one year to be unpredictable and he obviously isn’t afraid of bold moves, so I wouldn’t count those guys out either.

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I’m trying to think of which is more foolish, writing off a player that was considered possibly the third best player on the roster heading into last season OR pretending that you were perfectly satisfied with the performance delivered from William Nylander last season? Granted that second one seems to largely be a hyperbolic backlash to the first one, but where I hope we can all reasonably land on William Nylander last season is that he has to be better and he certainly did not live up to the expectations of his contract.

Season Recap

Well, it’s pretty easy to cover off October and November, amirite? No, not really, that’s where I should start? Fine.

The fact that William Nylander went through the first two months of the season without a contract wasn’t a great start and while this should fall as much on the organization as it does as Nylander, and Dubas has owned it as such, there certainly is a very vocal portion of the Leafs fan base that is unforgiving of Nylander, though ironically at the same time quite vocal about paying Mitch Marner all the money. Strange. We really shouldn’t go into that here. It’s a family site.

Anyways, ignoring the lost two months, the next few months weren’t exactly awe inspiring. (Read poor production with okay-ish shot differentials.) Considering what we’ve seen of Nylander is his career so far and a new contract that demanded he immediately show that he’s worth it, he did anything but. Finishing the year with 7 goals, and only 27 points in 54 games is bad no matter how hard you try to spin it. The good news is that he’s probably going to be better next year.

Stats and Charts

Production is the biggest talking point around Nylander, and rightfully the biggest concern, so let’s start with that. We can see that he was pretty close to his career average by March, but in a year where we could have reasonably expected career bests, it’s a massive disappointment to see Nylander below his .59 ppg number from his rookie season. Since the last time I checked, scoring was the point of hockey, it’s reasonable to be underwhelmed by Nylander, but I will reassert that he’s still a good player that you would have to be batshit crazy to sell low on.

CF% GF% xGF% HDCF%
56.06 55.00 54.11 54.88

Here are the numbers that give us hope for the future, and why the nerdiest person you know is so mad when you say anything negative about Willie online. All of those numbers are very good, and exactly what you want to see, but with, you know, points. As much as Nylander wasn’t scoring we can at least take comfort in the fact that the opposition wasn’t scoring when he was on the ice either, and if point production returns for Willie, hoooooooooooo doggy are we going to love this kid in 2019-20.

With Position Team TOI With CF% With GF% With xGF% With HDCF% With
Nazem Kadri C TOR 270.27 58.64 66.67 53.48 56.78
Auston Matthews C TOR 266.27 53.95 44.83 55.18 55.45
Andreas Johnsson L TOR 239.40 58.42 53.57 58.28 57.43
Connor Brown R TOR 231.12 54.64 66.67 47.08 42.53
Patrick Marleau C TOR 225.08 54.83 46.67 50.96 58.00

Above are the forwards that Nylander spent significant time with this season. The drop off from Marleau’s 225 minutes is to Kapanen at 41 minutes, so this is the group that Nylander works with and who we can anticipate him playing with again next season as at least we know a couple of them will be back.

Another interesting thing is that William Nylander only played 7 even strength minutes with Mitch Marner last season. This largely makes sense as they both are primarily on the right wing, but the fact that at no point in a close game were they ever loaded onto the same line or when Nylander was playing was he ever given the opportunity to work with Marner is an interesting fact to me. Additionally, Nylander only played 38 minutes with John Tavares. While Nylander spent the year struggling, there didn’t seem to be much interest in seeing if this would be a way to get him going.

TOI CF% GF% xGF% HDCF%
Matthews Johnsson 173:31 57.53 50.00 60.37 61.54
Kadri Brown 117:51 58.96 83.33 48.08 39.53
Kadri Marleau 108:25 62.39 42.86 60.54 71.93
Marleau Brown 76:27 46.50 50.00 43.32 44.44

Looking at the most common lines for Nylander it’s probably clear that he shouldn’t be centering his own line or if he’s going to he needs more than Marleau and Brown to work with. I mean, the 20 minutes of Johnsson-Nylander-Brown have some encouraging numbers behind them, but results with Nylander on the wing are significantly better and getting Matthews and Nylander back together as a regular thing should be a priority.

Preseason Predictions

Here’s what I had to say last September. I’m such a doofus…

So what can we reasonably expect from Nylander this season? Well…I think it’s safe to say we can expect a lot, especially after we thrust insane expectations on him from a shiny new contract. Is it weird to say that 61 points isn’t going to cut it this year? Yes it is. I think I could still be very happy if Nylander puts up 61 puts, but I honestly believe he could get more, and I’m going to set the bar at 70.

With some pressure being alleviated from the Matthews line by the Tavares, it’s entirely possible that Matthews and Nylander could be lining up 2nd defensive pairings a lot more often, a luxury not afforded them much last season, and something that was completely absent in the playoffs last year. Nylander may still have to go up against Chara in the playoffs next year, but only half the time. Marner is going to be seeing some of that too, and that means more time against John Moore for Willie.

At least I knew they’d be playing the Bruins in the playoffs.

Since speculation is a big part of what we do here, I’m going to guess we’re looking at something in the $6.5M-$7.5M per season range, and the Leafs will probably be fighting for either an eight year deal, or one that expires while Nylander is restricted free agent, so if it’s a 4, 7, or 8 year deal the Leafs got what they wanted. If it’s a 5 or 6 year deal, Nylander won that battle.

Assuming that Tavares has better intel than me, and Nylander will be there for the full camp, and we’re about to embark on a glorious era of enjoy Willie play without having to hear about his contract. Like I’ve been saying. He’s very good.

This team punishes optimism.

Highlight

William Nylander 1st Goal of the Playoffs | Game 1 | Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins - 4/11/2019 - YouTube
More like this, please. Grade

I’m giving Nylander a C-. He played very well, but results weren’t there, and with great salary comes great expectation for results matching play. There’s also the fact that the two month absence, despite being a perfectly acceptable part of the contract negotiation process disrupted the team and not playing is not helping, and that has to count against him here.

Final Thoughts

I don’t think we’ll be talking about how bad William Nylander’s season has been at this point next year and I think we will still be talking about him as a Leaf.

While the Leafs need to consider moving out salary at some point this summer, there’s no doubt that William Nylander is now sitting in a bit of a sell low situation that could really hurt the Leafs. Given Nylander’s consistent success with Auston Matthews, it makes a lot more sense to reunite them next year and allow us to embark on a glorious era of offensive domination.

I am a strong advocate of taking Matthews and Nylander and mirroring what was done on the first line with Tavares and Marner. Give Matthews and Nylander Trevor Moore to work with and see if he can be their Hyman. If not, stick with Johnsson, as Babcock needs to stop trying to make Marleau and Brown in the top six a thing.

I boldly stated in my preseason predictions that I thought William Nylander could be a 70 point player. I think that could be a thing next season still, and don’t expect to be proven wrong two years in a row.

No stats were harmed in the making of this post. Those stats however were sourced from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.

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If there’s one prospect in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization who’s skillset is somewhat of a liaison between the differing in philosophies that Mike Babcock and Kyle Dubas have when it comes bottom-six personnel, it’s Mason Marchment.

Standing at 6’4 204 lbs, size is far from the only thing Marchment brings to the table. He has quick release to go along with his NHL-calibre shot and he’s able to get to the dirty areas of the ice to generate offence. Son to former NHL agitator Bryan Marchment (2302 career penalty minutes), Marchment is aggressive by nature. He’s able to get under the skin of his opponents, with a high hockey IQ that helps him walk the fine line that comes with being an agitator in pro hockey.

“Mason’s a pest,” said Marlies forward Trevor Moore, Marchment’s line mate, in an interview with The LeafsNation after the Marlies’ practice on Monday. “He’s a really fun guy to play with and I would imagine not a very fun guy to play against. He hits guys hard. He really does. When he has the puck, he’s leaning back into you trying to hit you hard too. There’s certain guys that you don’t want to be on the ice against and I think Mason’s that guy and he can be that guy at the next level.”

After being a staple on the Marlies’ fourth line (alongside Moore and Adam Brooks) during last years Calder Cup championship run and starting the 2018-2019 season out with 14 points in his first 15 games–other teams took notice.

Multiple NHL sources confirmed to The Leafs Nation that the Leafs had a handful of teams calling them about Marchment throughout the course of the season, right up until the trade deadline.

To understand exactly why Marchment was peaking the interests of other NHL teams, look no further than game four of the Marlies’ second round series against the Cleveland Monsters. After the Marlies found themselves down 2-0 to start the second period, Marchment helped lead the teams’ resurgence with two quick goals to kickstart the teams’ six unanswered through the final 40 minutes.He was all over the ice, delivering hits, causing havoc in front of the net and creating space for his line mates.

“I think it just all came together last game,” Marchment told TheLeafsNation on Monday.

Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe made a point to praise Marchment after that game.

“[Marchment] really made his mark on both [the] Cleveland series and Rochester series,” said Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe after Marchment’s two-goal outing. “He wasn’t getting rewarded offensively and we do need to have more people step up and find ways to score goals for us. Mason being able to do that, and then finish that series on a high and be confident going into the next [round], I think that bodes well for our team.”

Mason Marchment is on his game tonight. Both goals scored in the second period saw him do what he does best–crash the net hard and tip home pucks. #Marlies #MarliesLive @TLNdc pic.twitter.com/qKBL8KZXqG

— Jacob Stoller (@JLStoller) May 8, 2019

A confident Mason Marchment not only helps the Marlies’ chances of repeating as Calder Cup Champions, but it also improves the 23-year-old power forwards odds of getting a shot with the Leafs in the near future. Babcock, a proponent of having some size and sand paper in his bottom six, and the organizations entire front office have their eyes peeled on the Marlies’ run.

“Every game I play is a huge opportunity to show what i have and how I can help,” Marchment said. “I think that’s the mindset I go out with every game.”

It’d be conventional-wisdom for one to wonder how far off Marchment is from wearing a Leafs sweater. If you combine his size and skill, his progressions over the last two years (not to mention his cost-effective $767,500 cap hit)-–it would seem, on paper, that Marchment could be one of the handful of Marlies who cracks the Leafs roster next year. Furthermore, Marchment is approaching the age (24) where most scouts will stop labelling a player a prospect.

But Marchment is on a different development trajectory than most of his peers in the Leafs’ organization.

“My age doesn’t really matter to me. I really didn’t start playing hockey until I was 10, so I’m a ways behind everyone,” Marchment said. “I’m a quick learner so I’m just trying to catch up,” Marchment said.

To understand Marchment’s timetable, you have to first understand his journey.

Marchment, who went undrafted in both the OHL and NHL, is as late of a bloomer as you’ll find in pro hockey. He played his first season of Major Junior hockey as a 19-year-old, playing in a bottom-six role on a Connor McDavid-led Erie Otters team during the 2014-2015 season. The following year, the Otters traded Marchment before the season as they had too many overage players and Marchment finished out his brief OHL-tenure with a 51 point season (in 61 games), splitting the season between the Hamilton Bulldogs and the Mississauga Steelheads.

At the tail-end of the 2015-2016 season, Marchment inked an ATO with the Marlies and subsequently inked a two-year AHL pact with the club. Over the course of the next two seasons, Marchment would go on to refine his game with the Leafs’ development staff, working closely with skating consultant Barb Underhill and skills coach Mike Ellis, and earn himself a two-year entry level contract with the Leafs at the beginning of the 2017-2018 season, just one year removed from treading in the ECHL.

“I was a pretty late bloomer. Some people forget that,” Marchment said. “I really came from nowhere. Just every day is a process for me. I try to get better every day.”

Marchment has made great strides in improving his skating and balance, but the biggest hurdle, for which he is yet to overcome, is consistency. Now, part of that can be attributed to some poor injury luck over the last two seasons, as he’s been limited to just 44 games in each of his first two AHL seasons.

“Finding some extra consistency and rhythm and not getting interrupted by injuries is really the next big thing for him,” Keefe said. “Being away from training camp this year, with the Leafs—he was behind the 8-ball. There’s a combination of bad luck and a combination of things he needs to continue to work at.”

Keefe didn’t mince words when explaining what Marchment had to work at.

“Effort, physicality, using his strength and staying on his feet and keeping his balance and stay engaged in plays,” Keefe said. His details defensively and just how he manages the puck and takes care of the puck. His ability to make a mark on the game offensively.”

Marchment’s offensive production has fluctuated, from and hot and cold, throughout the 2018-2019 season. After averaging 0.93 points per game through the first 15 games of the season, Marchment’s production fizzled out in the next 25 games–recording 0.36 points per game (9 points). Before Marchment could get his game back on track, he sustained an upper body injury on February 1st that kept him out for the next two months.

Since being reunited with Brooks and Moore, two of his closest friends on the team, in this years’ playoffs, Marchment has been able to find some consistency.

“He’s just carrying play and realizing that he can be a force [and] a big power forward who’s hard to contain,” said veteran forward Chris Mueller. “When he gets in that mindset and that [physical] play– he’s a hard player to play against and I think he’s realizing that. Obviously he had a tough year injury wise, but now come playoff time he’s going full tilt like he did last year.”

But again, this years’ playoffs is a small sample size.

Marchment’s a raw talent and alike any prospect, he needs repetitions to elevate his game. That’s why, barring a spectacular training camp next fall, you should probably expect to see Marchment with the Marlies to start out next season. It makes more sense for Marchment to be a top-flight contributor at the AHL level next year than to be in-and-out of the Leafs’ lineup next year. And if things go well for him from here-on-out, don’t be surprised if Marchment evolves into the teams’ de-facto call-up next season and gets into some NHL games along the way–like Moore did this season.

But for a raw-talent like Marchment, it’s a process. He’s got to be consistent force at the AHL level before he can even think of being in the big leagues.

“When he’s doing [everything] consistently, it’ll help him continue to gain confidence, feel good about his game and it will set him up to be a competitor next year at training camp, which I know he’s really focused on,” Keefe said.

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The running theme of the next month when it comes to our draft coverage is the Leafs lack of a first round pick. I’d argue that this is likely going to change at some point, or at least they might add an additional 2nd or some thirds along the way, but a team in salary cap hell that has a GM committed to maintaining a talent pipeline is going to explore some options here, if for no other reason than knowing that steady flow of entry level contracts exceeding their value is the only way to be competitive in the NHL.

Reminder of where everyone sits when it comes to draft position

Here’s our starting point. The actual draft order. It should go without saying that pick one is better than pick two, and so on down the line, but it’s interesting to see how much better. Using Michael Schucker’s draft pick values pick eight is already half as valuable as the first overall pick. This is good news for everyone who is happy to see Edmonton stop getting (and ruining) nice things.

So with values starting at 1000 (Auston Matthews) we slowly dwindle down to the 30 at 210th pick mark (Andreas Johnsson territory). So potentially you can have 33 Andreas Johnsson’s for the price of one Auston Matthews, as long you ignore the fact that most of the time you aren’t finding Andreas Johnsson in the 7th round.

Here are the values associated with the Leafs picks

Draft Pick Draft Pick Value
2nd Round- 53rd Overall 121
3rd Round- 84th Overall 72
4th Round- 115th Overall 55
4th Round- (between 121-124th Overall acquired from Blues) 52
5th Round- 146th Overall 46
7th Round- 204th Overall (acquired from Stars) 34
7th Round- 208th Overall 31

If you total them all together you have a combined draft pick value of 411. If you traded them all together that value would be in between the 10th and 11th overall picks, although that’s a bit like trading seven Toyota Corollas for a BMW. Presumably most people would just rather have the BMW.

Perhaps that isn’t the best comparison, maybe it’s more like trading 7 lottery tickets were you could win $100 for $50 cash. Depending on the odds on the ticket (the odds aren’t that good) you’re probably better off being risk averse and taking the cash.

For argument’s sake, what is combined draft pick value per team this year?
Team Total 1sts Total Picks Draft Pick Value
New Jersey Devils 1 10 1731
New York Rangers 2 9 1685
Colorado Avalanche 2 8 1489
Los Angeles Kings 2 10 1358
Detroit Red Wings 1 10 1310
Chicago Blackhawks 1 7 1182
Buffalo Sabres 2 8 1003
Philadelphia Flyers 1 10 987
Montreal Canadiens 1 10 962
Anaheim Ducks 2 7 956
Vancouver Canucks 1 9 931
Florida Panthers 1 9 881
Minnesota Wild 1 9 873
Vegas Golden Knights 1 9 867
Edmonton Oilers 1 6 862
Carolina Hurricanes 1 10 838
Arizona Coyotes 1 8 827
Ottawa Senators 1 7 801
Calgary Flames 1 6 479
Washington Capitals 1 6 471
Nashville Predators 1 6 452
Dallas Stars 1 4 441
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 5 424
Toronto Maple Leafs 0 7 411
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 6 389
New York Islanders 1 4 320
Boston Bruins 1 4 299
St. Louis Blues 0 4 251
Winnipeg Jets 0 3 229
San Jose Sharks 0 4 182
Columbus Blue Jackets 0 2 105

I guess we can take comfort in the fact that of the teams that dumped their first round pick, the Leafs have the best draft pick value total. Also of the playoff teams this season only the Hurricanes, Avalanche, and Golden Knights had a draft pick value total over 500.

In fact the difference between the 31st overall pick in the 1st round and the 53rd overall pick where the Leafs will select is only 33, which is equal to the value of the 207th overall pick. I can’t imagine any team is taking that deal, but it should at least illustrate it wouldn’t be an alarmingly high cost to trade up into the first round if Dubas so desired (nothing in recent history says he will so desire to.)

Draft Pick Value isn’t etched in stone

The obvious thoughts that need to be expressed to a certain degree is that not all drafts are created equal and this is the trend of decades worth of drafts. Are Hughes and Kakko closer in abilities and possibly more skilled than the Nial Yakupov draft? I’m going to say yes. The top picks certainly seem to be more valuable this year. Is the drop off going to be the same as we move down the draft? I mean it’s not going to follow the curve of the draft pick value graph perfectly, but yeah, there’s going to be drop off and greater risk as we move on down the list and when we consider that draft pick value is assessed on games played, there is a lot of variance that can go into what those games look like. Rolling the dice on a high scoring forward in junior who is a swing for the fences pick still makes more sense than the guy who will definitely play 100 games a fourth line faceoff specialist (no offense to Freddie Gauthier).

The second piece that needs some acknowledgement is how bad some teams are at drafting and a draft pick likely holds less value when it’s Brian Burke chasing size in the first round and trying address specific roster needs than when a competent GM drafts the best skilled player available.

Finally if you’re looking at draft pick value it probably makes sense to map that draft pick value to prospect rankings. Last Friday we posted the consolidated draft rankings and this provides us with a little bit of context for what trading up could look like.

The Leafs 53rd and 84th overall picks have a combined draft pick value of 193. The closest single draft pick value is the 24th overall pick at 191. Using the consolidated draft rankings the Leafs would potentially be giving up Patrik Puistola and Oleg Zaitsev for Moritz Seider.

Seider is certainly held in a higher regard and has a good chance of being a NHL player, but Puistola and Zaitsev are solid prospects as well, who could be better swing for the fences options than going with the safe bet on the right handed defenseman the Leafs need more at the moment.

Judging by what we’ve seen from Dubas so far it’s unlikely that he’s going to move up, and seeing the price that would be paid for a modest improvement in prospect, I’m a convert to his approach. Moving up only seems to have value if it’s a small jump or if you are ready to pay a steep price to get into the top of the draft, but it’s hard to imagine teams are interested in a deal involving a top 15 pick unless a roster player is included to reduce the risk.

Converting NHL players into Draft Pick Value

That’s the next step that probably needs to be taken and I’m not sure that there is enough history of trades made after draft order has been established to really make a true conversion of that. You can’t just simple say that Phil Kessel was valued by Burke as being with the 2nd overall, 8th overall, and 32nd overall picks because at the time he made the deal, he was dealing with generalized 1st overall picks. You’d have to look at what Lou Lamoriello paid for Cory Schneider on the day of the draft or what Calgary paid for Dougie Hamilton as the pick was locked into a certain value. Ottawa never intended to give up the 4th overall pick for Matt Duchene, but arguably that still seems somewhat fair and was nowhere need as bad as what Brian Burke paid for Kessel.

Where Leafs fans should be interested in this is that it’s likely that players like Kapanen, Johnsson, Kadri, and Brown are going to be somewhat available at the draft, and an improved understanding of what the return for these players could be would help us come to terms with a trade. It seem easy to make a case for Kapanen and Kadri being worth first round picks, but establishing where in the first round is debatable. Does Johnsson warrant some discussion as an asset worth a late first round pick? Is Connor Brown worth a second or third round pick?

Generally speaking at this point draft pick value is an interesting discussion topic, but not as tangibly applied as it is in other sports, especially football, but even as a tool that provides a layer of context to the draft I find it helpful in understanding that the Leafs aren’t in a particularly strong position, but shouldn’t use their current picks as the means in which they try to improve that situation.

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With the Leafs season now over, we look ahead to the draft and free agency as the big events left on the Leafs schedule for the 2018-19 season.

Now that the big three plus Tavares all have or will need their big contracts, the cap crunch is coming, and combine that with a disappointing playoff run, and suddenly, the Leafs might have a completely different roster come next season.

So, let’s look at the team from top to bottom, and figure out who will be back. I will throw people into one of four different categories: Will be back, probably coming back, might be back, and likely gone. Today, I’ll be looking at the blueline and the crease, and only the ones that played for the Leafs this season.

Morgan Rielly

Status: Will be back

He had a Norris-calibre season, and has three years left on an amazing deal. With him being one of the few bright spots on the blueline, locked up for a while, and a big part of the team, on and off the ice, he’s definitely sticking around.

Nikita Zaitsev

Status: Might be back

I’m sure if Kyle Dubas had full power to get rid of him, he probably would. But, Zaitsev still has five years left on a $4.5 million contract, so we can’t exactly say that he’s for sure going to be gone. But he was shopped at the deadline, so Dubas will certainly try.

Jake Gardiner

Status: Likely gone

You really don’t want to see it, especially after all he’s been through with the team, and his Game 7 performance will finish his time as a Leaf on a sour note, but with the cap crunch coming, and Zaitsev’s contract probably taking up a good chunk of the space that was dedicated to him, it’d be hard to see him come back.

Jake Muzzin

Status:  Will be back

He has one more year left on his contract, and I doubt Dubas would trade the assets that he did just to deal him in the offseason. There’s no telling if the Leafs will have room after this year, but he’s for sure going to be back at training camp.

Ron Hainsey

Status: Might be back

Some people have tossed around that he could come back on a performance bonus based deal, but honestly, I feel like Dubas will make some kind of power move with Babcock, and keep getting rid of his toys like Polak, Martin, and Komarov last year.

Igor Ozhiganov

Status: Won’t be back

I created a new category for this one occasion. He’s already signed in Europe, so he won’t be back for sure.

Travis Dermott

Status: Will be back

With one year left on his ELC, and a chance to finally step into a top four role, he’s definitely sticking around for next season.

Martin Marincin

Status: Might be back

Honestly, I’m not too sure about this one. I know Dubas likes him, but Babcock has shown that he won’t play him much, so it’s likely that he might not be back. But I could see them bringing him back if he signs for under $1 million. Or he could sign in Europe, this one is really unpredictable.

Justin Holl

Status: Will be back

He’s got one more year at $675,000. Like Petan and Moore, it’s that kind of cheap depth that we’ll need, especially as a right shot defenseman. He didn’t get much playing time, but maybe that changes this year.

Calle Rosen

Status: Will be back

Two years, $750,000. Cheap depth, he’ll be back. If it sounds familiar, that’s because it should be. Welcome to the cap crunch.

Frederik Andersen

Status: Will be back

Like they’d actually get rid of Freddie, he basically was the team this year.

Garret Sparks

Status: Might be back

The Leafs shot their shot with him this year, and it ended up being more of a Vince Carter vs. Philly shot than a Kawhi Leonard vs. Philly shot. He was extended for another year though, so cheap depth might mean he sticks around, but his performance this year left much to be desired, so they might send him down or trade him.

Michael Hutchinson

Status: Might be back

When Sparks wasn’t cutting it, they turned to Hutch, so maybe that might be what they do next year. But, he’s also a UFA, so whose to say that he ends up being in the Leafs plans next year.

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Toronto Maple Leafs president and alternative governor Brendan Shanahan has signed a six-year extension to remain with the club through the 2024-25 season.

President and Alternate Governor Brendan Shanahan signs six-year extension with @MapleLeafs.

Details >> https://t.co/ULjtd9psVa#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/2REPkHEnUg

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) May 14, 2019

With the team since April of 2014 and has been a large part of why the Leafs are near the top of the league in recent history. Consecutive 100-point seasons and breaking the team points record while he has been here, is just a small example of what Shanahan has been able to do.

“When MLSE approached me several months ago to discuss an extension, I told them this would be quite simple as I’ve had no desire to leave what we’ve started here with the Maple Leafs” said Shanahan, per Leafs PR.

He has seen the club rebuild and put out its worst product in decades to now having some of the most talented Leafs of all-time on its roster. So far, the “Shanaplan” seems to be on-track.

The club is only going in one direction with Shanahan at the top and in control.

“I’d also like to thank our incredibly loyal fanbase,” Shanahan said. “The trust and passion they’ve shown is truly inspiring and drives us to never quit until we reach our ultimate goal.”

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What more can we say about Nikita Zaitsev that hasn’t been said repeatedly on this site throughout the year? He’s been underwhelming. He’s not a top four defenseman. He’s overpaid. He’s probably not going anywhere unless the Leafs get a little creative and they probably should.

Season Recap

It was the third year of the Nikita Zaitsev era, and once again Zaitsev enjoyed a guaranteed spot in the top four solely on the basis of shooting right. Well, that’s only partially true. The Leafs defense really wasn’t that great until Muzzin showed up, and you could make a case for him being the best defenseman behind Rielly, Gardiner, and Dermott, although beating out Hainsey and Ozhiganov for the distinction doesn’t warrant a passing grade.

It was another year of failed stretch passes and declining offense for Zaitsev that didn’t endear him to anyone who wasn’t focused entirely on his xGA/60 Rel TM. Of course, that might be a little too harsh on Nikita. For all of his faults, he was one of the better Leafs defensemen playing down low in his zone, and when given a tough assignment against Boston, he handled the task admirably, at least for the early part of the series.

It might also be too easy to criticize Nikita Zaitsev for his involvement in the Leafs penalty kill, which by its nature is a pretty thankless task. Zaitsev seeing Muzzin and Gardiner swapped out for Ron Hainsey is an unfortunate downgrade that yielded unfortunate results, and perhaps Zaitsev is a solid fit in a complimentary role.

Stats and Charts
P/60 P1/60 CF% GF% xGF% HDCF%
0.53 0.17 49.79 48.60% 49.69 53.79%

So when it comes to primary points I guess we shouldn’t be counting on much from Zaitsev. This was certainly a chance from the previous season when Zaitsev more often than not had the primary assist and seldom put up a secondary one. This year he was limited to just one primary assist, which given his usage isn’t going to be a make or break thing for how we judge Zaitsev, but given that his offensive abilities demonstrated in his rookie season were the case for giving him the contract, it’s a shame that the offense is almost completely gone.

I can’t say enough about how encouraging the strong high danger numbers are encouraging about Zaitsev though. If this is a sign that Zaitsev has been remade as a shutdown defender, perhaps there is a way of coaching better overall results into his game.

With TOI With CF% GF% xGF% HDCF%
Jake Gardiner 811.50 49.91 50.85 51.16 54.40
Jake Muzzin 296.73 51.06 50.00 49.90 54.55
Travis Dermott 94.50 46.56 44.44 41.29 45.00
Ron Hainsey 90.70 39.38 36.36 38.32 40.00
Morgan Rielly 38.62 50.00 25.00 47.45 56.52
Martin Marincin 30.08 58.21 50.00 54.71 64.29
Igor Ozhiganov 14.02 66.67 100.00 69.88 66.67
Calle Rosen 4.37 20.00 0.00 0.00
Justin Holl 1.88 80.00 0.00 79.61 100.00

I think I’m going to dedicate a good portion of the rest of my life trying to figure out why it was thought to be a good idea to have Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev kill penalties together and be on the ice together protecting one goal leads.

A few other takeaways worth making are that we will absolutely be living in a Muzzin and Zaitsev pairing world if Zaitsev returns as a Leaf next season, and we should probably be okay with that. And I should also realize that most of the anger I was directing at Zaitsev last season would have been better spent complaining about Ron Hainsey.

I’m not ready to completely admit that Zaitsev wasn’t bad, but I am willing to acknowledge I would have given more of a pass if I didn’t hate his contract.

Preseason Predictions

Here’s what Thomas Williams had to say about Zaitsev in the fall:

If Zaitsev can find a balance between his rookie and sophomore years in this league, there can be potential for him to be somewhat worth his contract. He is certainly talented at some things and is an NHL defenceman without any doubt. He is the prime candidate on this Leafs team for a bounce-back year, bigger than anyone else.

If he is going to be playing over 22 minutes a night, let’s hope that he can bring that balanced game to the table like he has shown in the past.

It’s safe to say that Zaitsev bounced back in some areas, but probably not as much as we demanded.

Highlights

Nikita Zaitsev Empty Netter - YouTube
Looks like Zaitsev might have rediscovered his scoring touch. Grade

Admittedly I was prepared to give Zaitsev a D on the season, but through the process of revisiting his numbers I no longer think that is fair and I think his playoff performance should give us some hope that he can be more than was.

By the eye test we’re only going to recall a whole lot of failed stretch passes and clearing attempts, but in reality Zaitsev did a lot of defensive zone heavy lifting before Jake Muzzin arrived, and if they get some time to work together they could be a solid pairing with a lot of defensive zone starts.

Nikita Zaitsev isn’t to blame for how Mike Babcock used him, and you can’t fault him for getting paid as much as possible. If you are judging Zaitsev purely off of his performance, he’s a C- defenseman. If Nikita Zaitsev was a third pairing defenseman or was used in occasionally less difficult situations, he’d probably be a C+ or better defenseman.

Final Thoughts

Unfortunately there isn’t a way of separating the player from the contract and the reality is that Zaitsev’s contract makes him a player we should want on the Leafs next season. There is the matter of how we might not have much of a choice on that. A few months back I explored the trade options on Zaitsev, and while there might be some interest in him on July 1st after his bonus is paid, it’s hard to imagine a trade being completed easily.

For now the best course of action may be to embrace some optimism about the Muzzin-Zaitsev pairing. It has worked at times, and potentially with a defensively minded partner, Zaitsev could look to add some offense back into his repertoire. We are allowed to dream.

No stats were harmed in the making of this post. Those stats however were sourced from Natural Stat Trick.

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