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Commodities kicked off a parade of signals this week. After months of beating up buyers, the charts kicked off some significant oversold reversal signals. Going through the charts, a theme of reversals emerged. Crude Oil moved above the 50 day moving average last week. This week it held up there, but the related ETF's started to join the party. Things get real bullish if the $BPENER moves above the 50 day moving average.
The commodity charts continue to drift lower. There are lots of nice trend lines formed, but there seems to be little energy for a break to the upside just yet. The currency charts are important this week as the $USD seems set up for a sell signal on the momentum indicator. That might create a spark in the commodities and the emerging markets.
Commodities continue to weaken again this week. Whether it was Copper or Aluminum, Natural Gas or Gasoline, it was another tough week for the commodity arena. The $CRB closed below the midpoint on the week and reversed the two week counter trend rally. The index also closed at a major horizontal support/resistance level around 190.5.
Commodities wiggled this week. It wasn't very exciting to watch but it still suggests paying attention. Crude oil closed above the 50 day moving average, but some corresponding ETF's didn't rally with oil. XOP in the bottom panel traded sideways all week and closed marginally above the 50 day ma. While oil had a nice uptrend, XLE actually closed slightly lower than last week. I still like the oil related trade setup here, but the tepid performance suggests watching closely for a better entry. This week didn't really motivate the buyers.
Most of the commodities traded within their range of the last month. Wheat and corn were the exceptions. The $USD pushed to its highest weekly close but still trading in the range around 95. The energy markets all traded below their 50 day moving average to close out the week. Industrial metals had a mixed week but no real price direction of significance.
This week saw most of the commodities continue lower. Wheat actually moved above the 10 Week moving average. All of the rest of the commodities are below. It is not very often everything is this beaten down.
The $SPX was flat for the week. The US dollar dropped hard on Friday back into the middle of the two month trading range. As well the bond prices fell away from resistance pushing the long end of the yield curve higher. Gold has some nice buying wicks for the last three days in one of the most unloved areas of the market. It is already up $20 off the lows of Wednesday.
Let's start with Gold daily. First of all, we are looking for some place to expect support for Gold to kick in. Looking at the chart below, the up-sloping trend line on GLD did not hold. There is a great reason to expect $115 to hold as it has been a major support resistance level on the chart for a while.