2019 will bring higher conforming loan limits for homes located in King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties. Loan amounts over a conforming loan amount for which the property is located in is considered “non-conforming” or a “jumbo” mortgage.
For 2019, the conforming loan limits for King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties are:
One Unit: $726,625
Two Unit: $930,300
Three Unit: $1,234,475
Four Unit: $1,397,400
Technically, the loan limits for King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties are called “high balance conforming” as the loan limits are higher than the “true” conforming loan limits (which the rest of the state has for conforming loan limits).
For homes located in Washington state in any other county, the conforming loan limits are:
One Unit: $484,350
Two Unit: $620,200
Three Unit: $749,650
Four Unit: $931,600
When structuring your mortgage scenario, it may be more beneficial to have a “true conforming” loan amount vs. a high balance mortgage depending on your scenario and how rates are currently priced. It’s not unusual to see jumbo rates more favorable than “high balance” or “true” conforming. It’s important to work with a licensed local loan officer who will check out the various options that may be available to you.
In 2004 over 17,000 Residential Properties sold for $400,000 or less In Seattle. Now…less than 1,300.
In King County the number dropped from over 30,000 to a little over 8,000.
In 2004 only 333 houses sold for more than $900,000 in Seattle. Now…over 2,600.
In King County the number increased from 1,050ish to almost 7,400.
It’s not merely about median price increases. It’s about the displacement of people who are making the median income or less being replaced with a whole different income class.
Here’s a visual.
I was running stats for a different reason. Given the recent change/slump that has been broadly recognized both here and in many places around the Country, it’s a good time to take stock of where we are and where we are going and to some extent…where we need to be going.
Below is an almost complete visual of all of the stats I was running for King County, Seattle and The Eastside. I used “Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond” as a brief snapshot of “The Eastside”. Looking at the data is like looking at clouds. Everyone sees something a little different. But for me the top photo snapshot is pretty jaw dropping.
It pretty much explains why the Homeless Problem is growing. It pretty much explains why Democratic Socialists are popping up everywhere. It pretty much explains why there is a public outcry for some type of relief. The change in housing…not simply appreciation…but the disappearance of some lower income options being replaced by truly Luxury Priced options is astounding!
I didn’t separate the types of residential properties. I usually do, but in this case it really doesn’t matter WHAT the 919 less than $170,000 options were (red graphs below). That the number dropped to 34 is eye opening. Maybe they were manufactured homes. Maybe they were the “crap” houses newcomers often complain about. Still they were homes, and maybe to some extent this explains why people in that income bracket now have to live on the street or in their cars or in campers parked in someone’s driveway.
I’m posting these here as part of a bigger conversation somewhere else. The stats are not 100% accurate as many builders buy their low end teardowns off market and many high end homes are custom built or sold outside of the normal listing system. But given what we have to work with…this is a tale that deserves an in depth study. Clearly those reaching out for solutions to the Homeless Problem should be armed with some data like this showing prices have not only gone up…large numbers of people have been displaced. This doesn’t even count the number of apartments that tossed out all the renters and converted to condos since 2004. Just a huge change in the name of progress.
I have to admit I was dumbfounded by all of the angst against the Tech Companies in recent times…but looking at this data, well it all makes a lot more sense. Doesn’t it?
(Required Disclosure: Stats in this Post are not Published, Verified or Compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Another reason I have been working on Stats is because the DOW just went up over the January 26, 2018 Peak and so is technically out of the Correction Phase. Median Home Prices should reflect a 10% to 20% downward adjustment from the 2018 peak by year end. But looking at where we are…that’s not going to help much. Is it?
I just wrote this as a comment on Seattle Bubble and decided to share it here. I have not been “blogging” here or elsewhere, given most of my “writing” attentions have been on Quora Real Estate answering people who ask me specific questions or on Seattle Bubble when people are not beating each other up with Political Sticks.
But this seemed worth sharing beyond a mere comment on someone else’s blog.
ARDELL DellaLoggia says:
July 10, 2018 at 12:55 pm
It might be a bit nonsensical to some to believe that the market would end it’s upswing after 7 years of full upswing from 2012 forward. I have always believed that an upswing lasts 5 to 8 years, and while I can’t google it, I’m 99% sure I heard that from Greenspan back before my children were born. 7 years is the most predictable time, but it could end as early as 5 or later than 7, but not usually much later. I think the longest standing upswing went for part of the 8th year, and here we may be the same for early next year, just as our most recent crash began in August after “the season” was over.
I’m seeing enough fuel in the hottest of areas to make it through early next year, but more like a vehicle that was going so fast that its coasting period lasts longer than a vehicle that was going slower.
There is absolutely NO reason for a seller to not be selling, if they have been thinking of selling or will need to sell within the next 5 years. But I have been saying that since the beginning of 2017.
While the above article may not validate my long standing prediction, it certainly lends credence to it.
I have been saying “It’s a better time to sell than to buy” for awhile now, and none of my clients have been blind to my recommendations. That does not mean everyone sells and nobody buys, but informed consent is the most important part of a transaction.
Anyone not being increasingly pessimistic about the market since late 2016 or early 2017, or now, likely has a biased reason to not believe the obvious.
That is the end of my published comment from this morning. If you have questions, feel free to ask them in the comments here OR on Quora OR on Seattle Bubble.