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A new analysis of top-to-bottom (0-5000 m) ocean heat content changes since the mid-1990s reveals that (a) large regions of the global ocean have undergone cooling, and (b) the overall net temperature change for 1994-2013 was a modest 0.02°C.  In contrast, during the Holocene the oceans naturally warmed at a rate and magnitude several times greater than the last few decades, undermining claims that the modern era change is unusual or unprecedented. 

Image Source: Wunsch, 2018 Global Warming = Ocean Warming

According to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the atmosphere accounts for only 1% of the heat energy change in the Earth system, whereas the 0-2000 meter layer of the ocean is where 93% of the globe’s overall heat/temperature change has occurred in recent decades.

Ocean warming dominates the total energy change inventory, accounting for roughly 93% on average from 1971 to 2010 (high confidence). The upper ocean (0-700 m) accounts for about 64% of the total energy change inventory. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) accounts for 3% of the total, and warming of the continents 3%. Warming of the atmosphere makes up the remaining 1%.” (IPCC, 2013) Deep Ocean Temperatures Cooling Since The 1990s

The IPCC chooses to exclude the layer of the ocean below 2000 meters in their energy change inventories, even though about “52% of the ocean lies below 2000 m and about 18% below 3600 m” (Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014). Perhaps the reason the deep ocean is disregarded is because recent analysis has revealed that the deep oceans below 2000 meters have been cooling since 1993.

A very weak long-term [1993-2011] cooling is seen over the bulk of the rest of the ocean below that depth [2000 m], including the entirety of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, along with the eastern Atlantic basin.”  (Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014)

Image Source: (Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014)

Because of the cooling (thermal “retraction”) occurring below 2000 meters, the deep ocean removes a very uncertain -0.13 mm per year from global sea level change estimates (Llovel et al., 2014).

“Over the entire water column, independent estimates of ocean warming yield a contribution of 0.77 ± 0.28 mm yr−1 in sea-level rise … the deep ocean (below 2,000 m) contributes −0.13 ± 0.72 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise.” (Llovel et al., 2014) Top-To-Bottom Global Ocean Temps Have Changed By 0.02°C Since 1994…Large Regions Have Undergone Cooling

In a new paper, Harvard oceanographer Carl Wunsch provides an analysis of the overall temperature, salinity, and surface elevation changes in the global ocean for the 20 years between 1994-2013.  He focuses on the profound uncertainties in the data analysis, and cautions that we still have much to learn about the ocean system.

Wunsch provides a novel assessment of the temperature data for the whole ocean (0-5000 m), as the record doesn’t end at the 2000 meter depth.

The results reveals that the global ocean has been cooling in some regions and warming in others for the last few decades, with an overall net change of 0.02°C (~0.001° per year) during 1994-2013.

Wunsch, 2018 Towards determining uncertainties in global oceanic mean values of heat, salt, and surface elevation “Lower-bounds on uncertainties in oceanic data and a model are calculated for the 20-year time means and their temporal evolution for oceanic temperature, salinity, and sea surface height, during the data-dense interval 1994–2013. … Trends [in temperature] are estimated as […] 0.0011 ±  0.0001 °C/y, with formal 2-standard deviation uncertainties. The temperature change corresponds to a 20-year average ocean heating rate of  0.48 ±0.1 W/m2 of which 0.1 W/m2 arises from the geothermal forcing. … The mean slope implies a change over 20 years [1994-2013] of 0.0213 ± 0.0014 °C.”

Image Source: Wunsch, 2018 2016 Paper Revealed Oceans Naturally Warm At Several Times The Magnitude/Rate Of Recent Decades

According to the IPCC, the global ocean temperature changed by just 0.015°C per decade at depths of 700 m in the 40 years between 1971-2010.

“In the upper 75 m of the ocean, the global average warming trend has been 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13]°C per decade over this time [1971-2010]. That trend generally lessens from the surface to mid-depth, reducing to about 0.04°C per decade by 200 m, and to less than 0.02°C per decade by 500 m. … decreasing to about 0.015°C per decade by 700 m.” (IPCC, 2013)

In contrast to these modern ocean temperature changes, a Geophysical Research Letters paper from 2016 revealed  that during the Holocene the oceans naturally warmed by more than 2°C in a span of just 200 years 0.1°C per decade — at the deeper 0-1000 m layer (Bova et al., 2016). This is several times the rate and magnitude the ocean is reported to have warmed during 1971-2010 (0.015°C per decade) at the shallower depth of 700 m.

In fact, (Bova et al., 2016) concluded that deep ocean temperature changes for the last 200 years are apparently so insignificant they are below the detection limit”.

“The observational record of deep-ocean variability is short, which makes it difficult to attribute the recent rise in deep ocean temperatures to anthropogenic forcing. Here, we test a new proxy – the oxygen isotopic signature of individual benthic foraminifera – to detect rapid (i.e. monthly to decadal) variations in deep ocean temperature and salinity in the sedimentary record. We apply this technique at 1000 m water depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific during seven 200-year Holocene intervals. Variability in foraminifer δ18O [temperature proxy] over the past 200 years is below the detection limitbut δ18O signatures from two mid-Holocene intervals indicate temperature swings >2 °C within 200 years.” (Bova et al., 2016)

Comparing past “natural” changes to the recent changes in ocean temperature therefore would undermine claims that the modern version of “global warming” is unusual, unprecedented, or even remarkable.

Instead, perhaps we are merely witnessing “natural variability”.

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The time in running out for the purveyors of the “rapidly accelerating sea level rise” scare story.

Especially IPCC alarmist scientists like spreading scare stories about sea level rise, and how it’s accelerating.

So far global CO2 emissions have in fact continued to climb at a rate that is defined as the “business as usual” emissions scenario RCP8.5, which means a sea level rise of up to 97 cm by 2100, according to the most recent IPCC projections:

IPCC AR5 sea level rise for 4 different emissions scenarios. So far CO2 emissions have been on the worst case path.

Could even be 90 by 2060!

And some experts even suggest that sea level rise may occur even far more quickly. For example the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PACIOOS) here wrote. “Recent observations and projections suggest that 3 feet (90 cm) or more of sea level rise could occur earlier than 2100 and even as early as year 2060.”

Meanwhile some time ago alarmist climate site Skeptical Science here wrote: “Overall, the range of projected sea level rise by 2100 is 75 to 190 cm.”

Of course, hysterical sites like Skeptical Science don’t publish anything without first injecting a good dose of hyperbole. So we will put them down for 1200 mm of sea level rise by 2100.

Gap between reality and IPCC about to become glaring

The following chart depicts the IPCC alarmists, like Skeptical Science, projection (1200 mm), the conservative IPCC AR5 business as usual estimate (800 mm), the projected linear trend of the satellite measurements trend (320 mm), and the projected trend of what the tide gauges –  i.e. where people actually live – have been observing (160 mm):

Observed data show no signs that sea levels are rising as quickly as IPCC models have been suggesting. IPCC alarmist scenarios are about 7 times higher than what is observed by tide gauges. Chart: notrickszone.com.

Acceleration not showing up in the observations

Naturally the alarmists always claim that the sea level rise rate will be modest at first, but that it will really begin to take off in a decade or two once the oceans warm and expand, and Greenland and Antarctica start to melt in earnest.

But there’s only one problem: So far there hasn’t been any noteworthy acceleration seen in neither the satellite data or tide gauge data.

Moreover, Greenland and Arctic ice volume have been increasing. And so has Antarctica. Of course we do see a paper from time to time with alarmist scientists statistically waterboarding some rate increase out of the sea level data, but almost always the increase gets traced back to natural variation.

Time is running out – for the alarmists

What’s clear is that we will certainly know what sea level rise is doing in 15 years, ca. 2033. by then the IPCC claimed acceleration should making its debut in earnest.

However, if the tide gauges don’t show some real, major acceleration by then, from 1.6 mm/year to say 4 mm/year, then it will be safe to say that any IPCC of over 70 cm was nothing but wolf-crying.

We’re watching carefully. The days of the sea level scare story are numbered.

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No matter how hard climate-catastrophe obsessed alarmists attempt to beat out a little doom from the data, their results still fall far way short of their projections. Moreover, the modest warming the planet has seen over the recent decades is tied more to natural cycles.

One alarmist tweeted in response to one of my recent posts with a WoodForTrees chart showing a temperature rise over the past 40 years. His aim was to say: The temperatures are rising fast and are right on course with the models:

At first glance we see that the satellite data do show a warming trend over the past 40 years, and so the alarmists must be right – some might think.

But look at the chart more closely.

If you do, you’ll see that the global temperature over the past 40 years has risen from an anomaly of -0.2°C to +0.3°C, meaning a whopping 0.5°C over 40 years, which is 1.2°C per century.

When we put this in perspective, this is far lower than the than 4 to 6°C per century that the alarmists often like to have the public believe.

Putting this on a chart (I had to do a little rescaling):

Chart: P Gosselin, using WoodForTrees data.

Of course the recent pause was interrupted by an El Nino event and the latest satellite data show that the global surface temperature is down to a mere anomaly of only 0.12°C:

Chart snipped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary, July 14, 2018.

Temperature is not the only magnitude that global warming alarmists have totally exaggerated. Another example mentioned earlier is Arctic sea ice, which has been expanding over the past decade, i.e. doing the opposite of what was forecast:

Al Gore’s hysterical projections of ice-free Arctic late summers are exposed as an absolute sham. 2018 uses a conservative projected value.

Today the doomsday scenarios and projections made 10 years ago have yet to show any signs of coming true. In fact, many scientists are projecting a cooling tendency ahead.

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The upcoming 6th IPCC Sixth Assessment Report will be a “comprehensive assessment of the science” related to climate change and published in 2022. However, don’t expect it to be “comprehensive” at all as hundreds of scientific publications showing profound impacts by sun and oceans will go ignored.

Climate science has turned into a religion that centers on a single act of faith. Human CO2 is changing our climate.

In the past it was always understood that climate was impacted by a vast array of factors, such oceanic cycles, solar cycles, aerosols, cloud cover, etc. to name a few.

Images: NASA (public domain)

But over the years tremendous resources have been poured into an effort aimed at pinning the blame on man-made greenhouse gases. Models have been grossly distorted and corrupted to make CO2 the 90%+ climate driver.

Despite global temperatures having fallen by more than 0.5°C over the past two years due to the ending of an El Nino event, IPCC scientists continue to insist that trace gas CO2 is the main driver behi9nd climate warming. In the IPCC 5th summary report for policymakers, for example, solar and oceanic factors re described as having little effect on global temperatures:


Source: IPCC 5th Summary Report for Policymakers.

With such a disregard for natural factors, it is no surprise that we are already observing the spectacular failure of the climate models.

Not only have ocean cycles been grossly ignored in climate models, but so have solar factors. The sun is not constant in its behavior, and has been shown to act in cycles that have profound impacts on the earth’s climate system.

Research showing sun’s impact piles up

Despite all the effort to frame CO2, scientists are still conducting a formidable amount of research on the sun’s impact.

Indeed since the last IPCC report was released in 2013, there have been literally hundreds of scientific peer-reviewed publications showing that the sun directly and indirectly have a great impact on the earth’s climate. Yet IPCC scientists obstinately continue to refuse to acknowledge these in their models.

Back in 2013 I produced a list of 123 paper showing that the sun impacts global climate.

More than 600 published papers show clear solar impact on climate

NTZ guest author Kenneth Richard has been busy listing the papers as well. What follows are the list of papers showing the sun impacts global climate.

2012 123 papers had been published and ignored by IPCC 4AR

In 2014, 93 papers were published.

In 2015,  95 peer-reviewed papers were published

In 2016, 133 papers were published.

In 2017,  121 peer-reviewed solar papers were published.

In 2018, so far, ca. 60 papers.

That brings the total of scientific peer-reviewed papers that will be completely ignored by the IPCC to 625. If that isn’t fraudulent “science-based” policymaking, then what is?

Aim: human society in shackles

The aim of the IPCC is to ignore recognized standards of science, frame mankind for a nonexistent crime, and shackle human society. It’s the next planned slavery. The developing countries, who will be denied cheap and reliable energy, will bear the heaviest chains.

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In direct contrast with CO2-centric climate modeling, extensive paleoclimate evidence affirms that the Holocene climate has been far more variable in the past 12,000 years than during the relatively quiescent period we’ve enjoyed since the mid-19th century. In the absence of CO2 concentration changes or human interference, abrupt global cooling episodes led to agricultural collapse, famines, and the extirpation of ancient civilizations.  These naturally-occurring climate events are likely to recur…and we will be powerless to intervene.

Between 1860 and 2014, CO2 concentrations rose dramatically (from 285 parts per million to 400 ppm), and yet global temperatures have fortunately remained relatively stable, with an overall per-decade change rate of just 0.05°C.

Image Source: Zhu et al., 2017

In contrast to the last 150 years of modest climate change, there was an instance 14,500 years ago in which “Northern Hemisphere temperatures increased by 4–5°C in just a few decades” and a concomitant “12–22 m sea level rise in less than 340 years” (Ivanovic et al., 2017), which is a warming of multiple degrees per decade and a sea level rise amounting to 3.5 to 6.5 meters per century.   This well-documented climate event occurred without CO2 levels fluctuating, indicating that CO2 was not causally involved in this explosive warming or sea level rise.

The 8.2 ka Abrupt Cooling/Warming Event

About 8,200 years ago, there was an abrupt, multiple-degree C cooling and warming episode (the “8.2 ka event”) that was global in scope, and lasted a total of about 150 years, with the amplitude of the cooling and warming phases lasting only decades.  The event was “associated with a total eustatic sea level rise of 0.8–2.2 m [Li et al., 2012; Törnqvist and Hijma, 2012]” (Ahn et al., 2013), indicating that there was far more pronounced climatic changes and sea level rise rates — ~1 meter per century — during this period than the mere 0.05°C per decade change and <0.2 meter of sea level rise that has occurred in the last 150 years.

Kobashi et al., 2007     “A large number of paleoclimatic records over a hemispheric area show a large and abrupt climate change around 8200 years BP. However, the duration and general character of the event have been ambiguous. Here, we provide a precise characterization and timing of the event using methane and nitrogen isotopes in trapped air in an ice core. Climate change in Greenland and at a hemispheric scale was simultaneous (within ~4 years) as supported by climate model results (LeGrande et al., 2006).  The event started around ~8175 years BP, and it took less than 20 years to reach the coldest period, with a magnitude of cooling of ~3.3°C [per decade] in central Greenland.   After 60 years of maximum cold, climate gradually recovered for 70 years to a similar state as before the event [+3.3°C within 70 years]. The total duration of the event was roughly 150 years. … The fall in temperatures that accompanied the 8.2 ka event also corresponded with abrupt migrations of human populations and abandonment of sites ranging from Spain to Greece and in the Middle East (Gonzalez-Samperiz et al., 2009)  ….  Ice cores from Greenland (Alley et al., 1997) and Africa (Thompson et al., 2002) suggest that the 8.2 ka event was global in extent.”

During this period, atmospheric CO2 concentrations effectively stayed the same, with “a small, about 1–2 ppm, increase of atmospheric CO2 during the 8.2 ka event” (Ahn et al., 2013), once again supporting a lack of causal connection between large-scale global warming and cooling and CO2 concentration changes.

Atwood et al., 2017     “The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch (11,700 yr BP-present) was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe.  Polar ice and marine records indicate that annual average surface temperatures dropped by 2-6 °C in central Greenland and by 1-3 °C in the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe [within decades]. The associated climate perturbations are generally thought to have persisted for 100-150 years [before temperatures returned to the previous baseline]. … These events stretch our understanding of the dynamical principles that govern the climate system, given the lack of these events in the modern record and the inability of climate models to reproduce such variability.”

Griffiths and Robinson, 2018     “The 8.2 ka BP (8200 cal. BP) event is regarded as the largest abrupt climate change event of the Holocene period (Alley et al., 1997; Alley and Agústsd ottir, 2005 ). It was first identified in the Greenland ice cores (Alley et al., 1997; Rasmussen et al., 2006; Thomas et al., 2007), but has subsequently been reported in multiple proxies across Europe (Magny et al., 2003; Seppa et al., 2007; Prasad et al., 2009; Zillen and Snowball, 2009; Daley et al., 2011; Giesecke et al., 2011), and throughout the Northern (Morrill and Jacobsen, 2005; Shuman, 2012; Liu et al., 2013; Dixit et al., 2014) and Southern Hemispheres (Morrill and Jacobsen, 2005; Cheng et al., 2009; Bustamante et al., 2016). In the Northern Hemisphere the event has been cited as precipitating a cold period, with a drop in temperature for example of 6 ± 2°C at Summit, Greenland (Alley et al., 1997) and of c. 1.6°C at Hawes Water, northwest England (Lang et al., 2010) that, according to counts of Greenland ice core layers, lasted a total of just over 160 years (Thomas et al., 2007). The event was reportedly caused by a glacier meltwater outburst from Laurentide lakes Agassiz and Ojibway around 8470 cal BP, which reduced deep water formation and caused an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Barber et al., 1999). This hypothesis has been supported by work showing two sea-level jumps between 8.5 and 8.25 ka BP (Tornqvist and Hijma, 2012).” The 4.2 ka Abrupt Cooling/Warming Event

About 4,200 years ago, another abrupt global-scale cooling event occurred that was associated with severe Northern Hemisphere-wide drying period that lasted for centuries.  The accompanying megadroughts and famines wiped out human civilizations that had existed in the same locations  for centuries to millennia.  After about 300 years of enduring cold and drought-stricken climates, “unified Neolithic farming culture completely collapsed” (Fenggui et al., 2010 ).

Like the 8.2 ka event, the 4.2 ka event featured a sudden, decadal-scale drop in surface ocean temperatures of 1-2°C (Guo et al., 2018).  Also like the 8.2 ka event, the 4.2 ka event was not accompanied by changes in CO2 concentrations, again emphasizing the lack of a strong linkage between CO2 fluctuations and large-scale climate changes in the paleoclimate record.

Guo et al., 2018   “The mid-Holocene environmental transition was characterised by global cooling and the abrupt weakening of the Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems. It is generally considered the key driver of the collapse of several mid-Holocene agricultural societies, on a global scale. … The mid-Holocene environmental transition has attracted much attention from climate scientists and archaeologists, especially Holocene event 3 (HE3, ~4.2 ka) [4,2000 years ago],as termed by Bond et al. (1997), because it marks the termination of the Holocene climatic optimum (Perry and Hsu, 2000) and the initiation of the Neoglacial (Solomina et al., 2015). Existing records reveal that ocean surface temperatures decreased by ~1-2°C during HE3 [4.200 years ago] (Bond et al., 1997; deMenocal et al., 2000b), which persisted for ~300-600 years (Cullen et al., 2000; Perry and Hsu, 2000); while a total duration of up to ~1500 years was recorded in the North Atlantic (Bond et al., 1997, 2001). In addition, HE3 was punctuated by a series of geologically-rapid global cooling and/or dry events (Morrill et al., 2003; Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004; Booth et al., 2005; Shanahan et al., 2015) which were superimposed on the gradual drying trend of the mid-Holocene (Morrill et al., 2003; Mayewski et al., 2004; Wanner et al., 2008, 2011; Roberts et al., 2011). Associated with HE3 were the collapse of cultures in Pakistan (Staubwasser et al., 2003; Madella and Fuller, 2006; Macdonald, 2011; Giosan et al., 2012; Ponton et al., 2012; Leipe et al., 2014; Menzel et al., 2014; Prasad et al., 2014a), Mesopotamia (Weiss et al., 1993; Cullen et al., 2000; deMenocal, 2001), China (Jin and Liu, 2002; Wu and Liu, 2004; An et al., 2005; Innes et al., 2014; Zeng et al., 2016; Zhu et al., 2017) and Egypt (Thompson et al., 2002; Marshall et al., 2011; Phillipps et al., 2012). In high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a peak in detrital carbonate flux on the East Greenland Shelf at 4.7 ka signaled both the beginning of the Neoglacial and a southward expansion of the Arctic sea ice (Jennings et al., 2002). In Europe, a 4.2 ka drought event is recorded by multi-proxy data from a cave flowstone in Italy (Drysdale et al., 2006); diatom assemblages from Montcortes Lake in the Iberian Peninsula indicate that lake levels were lower during a pronounced dry interval from 2360 to 1850 BCE (Scussolini et al., 2011); a decrease in deciduous Quercus and Pinus pinea-type percentages in Southwest Iberia at ~4.2 ka suggests an abrupt shift to dry conditions (Lillios et al., 2016); and a synthesis of records from the Mediterranean reveals an unusually dry interval from 4.5 to 3.9 ka (Mercuri et al., 2011; Roberts et al., 2011). Evidence from eastern tropical Africa indicates a shift to drier conditions at ~4.0 ka (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004), although at this time wetter conditions were maintained in West Africa (Russell et al., 2003) and in parts of South America (Marchant and Hooghiemstra, 2004); and magnetic and geochemical data from the Holocene sediments of Lake Tana in northwest Ethiopia confirm that the driest interval occurred at ~4.2 ka (Marshall et al., 2011), which is also identified in the Mount Kilimanjaro ice core (Thompson et al., 2002) and in the Mauritian lowlands (de Boer et al., 2014). In eastern Russia, evidence of a cold spell between 4.5 ka and 3.5 ka is provided by a multi-proxy record from Two-Yurts Lake (Hoff et al., 2015). A severe centennial-scale megadrought in mid-continental North America occurred between 4.1 and 4.3 ka (Booth et al., 2005).” Xiao et al., 2018     “Researches on the 4.2 ka event and its impact on cultural evolution in China have been encouraged by Hsü’s view (1998) that famines and mass migrations have occurred in the past. In ancient China, these could have resulted from regional droughts related to global cooling. Wu and Liu (2004) synthesized data from paleoclimatic records in eastern China and suggested that the climatic anomaly that occurred ~4.2 ka ago produced a drought in the northand flooding in the south, which was responsible for the collapse of neolithic cultures in the central plain of China during the late third millennium BC. … Fang and Sun (1998) first attributed the interruption of the Laohushan Culture to climatic cooling based on the impacts of ≥10°C cumulative temperature decreases on frost-free period in the lake region and of a temperature drop to agricultural production in areas along the Great Wall during the historical period. This interpretation has been followed by Tian (2000) and Tian and Guo (2004). As stated above, our multi-proxy data imply a decrease in regional precipitation rather than temperature.” Klus et al., 2017     “Abrupt cold events have been detected in numerous North Atlantic climate records from the Holocene. … Here, we describe two cold events that occurred during an orbitally forced transient Holocene simulation using the Community Climate System Model version 3. Both events occurred during the late Holocene (event 1 referring to 4305-4267 BP [38 years] and event 2 referring to 3046-3018 BP [28 years]) and were characterized by substantial surface cooling (-2.7 and -2.2 °C, respectively [-0.71 °C/per decade and -0.78 °C/decade]) …  …  Northeast of Iceland, however, shows an increase in both SST and SSS, but a decline in sea ice concentration (event 1: warming of 1.6 °C [+0.42 °C/decade], rise of 0.7 PSU, decline of -5 % in sea ice concentration; event 2: warming of 1.9 °C [+0.68 °C/decade], rise of 0.9 PSU, decline of -11 % in sea ice concentration). … The events were triggered by prolonged phases of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which, through changes in surface winds, caused substantial changes in the sub-polar ocean circulation and associated freshwater transports, resulting in a weakening of the sub-polar gyre. Our results suggest a possible mechanism by which abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic region may be triggered by internal climate variability without the need of an external (e.g. solar or volcanic) forcing.”

1-3°C Decadal-Scale Holocene Surface Cooling/Warming In the North Atlantic

In the subpolar North Atlantic, Holocene sea surface temperatures routinely rose and fell by 1°C to 3°C within a span of decades.

Berner et al., 2008  “Superimposed on general Holocene climate change is high-frequency [North Atlantic] SST [sea surface temperature] variability on the order of 1-3°C [during a ’10- to 50-year time resolution’].”

Modern Ocean Heat Content Changes So Minimal They Are “Below Detection”, While Holocene Ocean Temperature Changes Reached “>2 °C Within 200 Years”

According to Levitus et al. (2012), the global ocean heat content (0-2000 m layer) rose by a total of just 0.09°C during the 55 years between 1955 and 2010.   During the Holocene, temperatures in the 0-1000 m layer rose and/or fell by more than 2°C within 200 years, or 1°C per century.

Bova et al., 2016     “Rapid variations in deep ocean temperature detected in the HoloceneThe observational record of deep-ocean variability is short, which makes it difficult to attribute the recent rise in deep ocean temperatures to anthropogenic forcing. Here, we test a new proxy – the oxygen isotopic signature of individual benthic foraminifera – to detect rapid (i.e. monthly to decadal) variations in deep ocean temperature and salinity in the sedimentary record. We apply this technique at 1000 m water depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific during seven 200-year Holocene intervals. Variability in foraminifer δ18O [water temperature proxy] over the past 200 years is below the detection limit [a change or variability in ocean heat cannot be detected in the past 200 years], but δ18O signatures from two mid-Holocene intervals indicate [natural, unforced] temperature swings >2 °C within 200 years.” Between 80,000 and 20,000 Years Ago, Temperatures Rose By 10°C And More Within Decades Dozens Of Times

Referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events occurring during the last glacial (~80,000 to 20,000 years ago), global temperatures would rise by multiple degrees within decades about every 1,500 years, each time nearly reaching the modern interglacial’s warmth before gradually cooling back down over the course of centuries.  The amplitude of these explosive warming events reached 10 to 15°C in Greenland.   As usual, CO2 concentrations did not change during these abrupt warming/cooling episodes, as they remained flat and dangerously low at 180 to 190 ppm throughout the last glacial.  Scientists have concluded that  “DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered” (Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016).

Sánchez et al., 2017      “The estimated increases in Greenland atmospheric temperature were 5–16°C [Capron et al., 2010] and the duration of the warming events between 10 to 200 years [Steffensen et al., 2008].”

Lohmann and Ditlevsen, 2018    “During the last glacial period, lasting from approximately 120 to 12 kya BP (thousands of years before present), a large number of abrupt large-scale climate changes have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and other Northern Hemisphere climate proxies. These so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events (Dansgaard et al., 1993) are characterized by an abrupt warming of 10–15 K from cold conditions (stadials) to warmer conditions (interstadials) within a few decades. This is typically followed by gradual cooling, lasting centuries to thousands of years, until a more abrupt jump back to cold conditions is observed. … In conclusion, we show that the long-term variations in DO warming event frequency, often described as millennial climate activity, are consistent with a memory-less stationary random process. From the data at hand we cannot exclude the possibility that the long-term variations occurred by chance. If we however divide a DO cycle into two independent processes governing warming and cooling, this is not true anymore and significant time-varying structure is detected. We thus propose a model that incorporates long-term variations through forcing of the parameters with external climate factors. We find good agreement with the data in a model where the mean duration of interstadial phases of the DO cycle is controlled by global ice volume and the stadial phases by boreal summer insolation.” Jensen et al., 2017     “The Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events of the last glacial are some of the most prominent climate variations known from the past. Ice cores from Greenland show multiple temperature excursions during the last glacial period as the climate over Greenland alternated between cold stadial (Greenland Stadial, GS), and warmer interstadial (Greenland Interstadial, GI) conditions with a period of roughly 1500 years (Grootes and Stuiver, 1997). Each DO-event is characterised by an initial temperature rise of 10±5 °C toward GI [Greenland Interstadial] conditions in a few decades, a more gradual cooling over the following several hundreds of years, and a relatively rapid temperature drop back to GS at the end of most of the events (Johnsen et al., 1992; Dansgaard et al., 1993; North-Greenland-Ice-Core-project members, 2004; Kindler et al., 2014).DO-events are manifested not only in Greenland, but around the world.” Hewitt et al., 2016     “Many northern hemisphere climate records, particularly those from around the North Atlantic, show a series of rapid climate changes that recurred on centennial to millennial timescales throughout most of the last glacial period. These Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) sequences are observed most prominently in Greenland ice cores, although they havea global signature, including an out of phase Antarctic signal. They consist of warming jumps of order 10°C, occurring in typically 40 years, followed generally by a slow cooling (Greenland Interstadial, GI) lasting between a few centuries and a few millennia, and then a final rapid temperature drop into a cold Greenland Stadial (GS) that lasts for a similar period. … [S]teady changes in ice-sheet runoff, driven by the AMOC, lead to a naturally arising oscillator, in which the rapid warmings come about because the Arctic Ocean is starved of freshwater. The changing size of the ice sheets would have affected the magnitude and extent of runoff, and we suggest that this could provide a simple explanation for the absence of the events during interglacials and around the time of glacial..
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40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell’s Saturday Summary shows how the Earth’s surface has cooled dramatically over the past three years and that Arctic sea ice is piling up.

Hurricane threat to East Coast due to natural factors

First at his most recent Saturday Summary, the 40-year meteorologist first warns that in-close developing hurricanes of the sort seen in the 1930s are a risk to the US East Coast this year, due the current Atlantic temperature pattern. The reason has nothing to do with CO2 in the atmosphere, but because of natural sea surface temperature cycles.

Sea surface temperatures see “pretty dramatic turnaround”

Next Joe Bastardi illustrates the stark sea surface cooling the globe has seen over the recent years. The following two charts show the “pretty dramatic” cooling that has occurred over the past three years, 2015 vs 2018:

Cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.

The two images above show the surface temperatures of the globe for the years 2015 – 2018. Note the profound cooling that has taken place from 2015 to 2018.

Bastardi calls it “a pretty big flip” and “a pretty dramatic turnaround”.

Arctic turns frigid

As sea surface temperatures around Greenland and in the Arctic are currently below normal, they are having an impact on Arctic surface temperatures this summer.

Joe Bastardi notes that according to the Danish DMI, Arctic temperature has been below normal over the entire summer:

Moreover, Arctic mid-summer temperatures, north of 80°N latitude, have dipped to near freezing over the past days. This is likely in large part linked to the cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures we’ve been witnessing. All this suggests ocean cycles, and not CO2, are the real Arctic drivers.

Snow and ice climbing past decade

The cold polar temperatures are naturally having an impact on Arctic snow and ice.

Japanese blogger Kirye tweeted here that Arctic sea ice volume is currently at the 4th highest level since 2003, thus defying the dire alarmist predictions of Arctic sea ice disappearing by now.

Arctic sea ice volume (m3) has eased off from third place and is now at the 4th highest level since 2003, and showing an upward recovering trend over the past decade. Chart: Kirye.

Also at the 11:50 mark of his Saturday Summary video, Joe shows that Arctic sea ice extent is well above the levels seen over the previous years.

Greenland gets buried in snow

According to Kirye here, warming and melting have also been AWOL in Greenland, which has been seeing a dramatic snow and ice mass balance increase:

Chart: DMI.

“Total nonsense” concerning Thailand monsoons

In his Saturday Summary, Joe Bastardi also sharply criticized the climate ambulance chasing we’ve witnessed from hysterical climate alarmists, who are desperately grasping at any straw they can find to keep the climate panic on life-support.

It was recently claimed that the group of Thailand teenagers and their coach got trapped in a cave due to monsoon rains which were induced by global warming!

But Joe Bastardi presents a chart showing that this year’s monsoon activity in Thailand is completely within the range of natural variability:

Chart: WeatherBell Saturday Summary.

Bastardi calls the claim the kids got trapped because of climate change “total nonsense”, and points out that the monsoons over Thailand over the past five years have been normal to even below normal!

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Another paper titled The Solar Wind and Climate: Evaluating the Influence of the Solar Wind on Temperature and Teleconnection Patterns Using Correlation Maps lends great support to the claim that solar activity plays a major role in driving the Earth’s climate, and that CO2’s impact is being grossly overstated.

Hat-tip: Kirye.

The paper, authored by a team of researchers led by Japanese physical chemist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, photo right, examined the influence of changes in solar activity (solar wind in particular) on surface temperatures and major oceanic oscillations such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which have great impacts on regional and global climate.

The researchers feel that the major drivers of the Earth’s climate are more related to the sun and the oceans, and CO2’s role has been exaggerated.

Sun and oceans play great role

The paper cites, for example, Levitus et al., which found multidecadal temperature oscillations with magnitudes as large as 4°C for the Barents Sea at depths of 100–150m and that the timing of the oscillation coincided with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a major factor in the Atlantic Ocean.

Chart: Itoh 2018.

IPCC models shoddy, major factors “not adequately represented”

The team of scientists found a clear influence of the solar wind on climate, and thus solar activity “should be considered much more than conventionally believed”.

The authors state, “once its mechanism becomes clearer and incorporated into climate models, it will greatly contribute to policy development.”

“The effectiveness of climate models is greatly reduced when the influence of the sun (and moon) is not adequately represented,” they state in the paper’s conclusion.

Dr. Kimimori Itoh has been a harsh critic of the mainstream, narrow scientific view that trace gas CO2 acts as the main driver behind global climate. He once called it “the worst scientific scandal in history” and that “when people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”

Dr. Itoh photo: cropped from Twitter.

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Despite hysterical headlines from the fake media claiming the weather is weirding out due to man-made climate change, recent studies show that it’s mostly superstition and that our modern climate in fact is well within the range of natural climate variability.

If one really wants to understand today’s weather and climate, it is essential to keep it in perspective with respect to what has happened over the past 1000 years or more. This is why a number of scientists are busy reconstructing past weather patterns at locations worldwide.

Central Asia climate likely dominated by natural cycles

First, a new study published in the journal Climate of the Past authored by a team of researchers led by Feng Chen of the Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration found that drought records from western and eastern Central Asia capture the regional dry/wet periods and that analyses indicate the existence of centennial (100–150 years), decadal (50–60, 24.4 and 11.4 years) and interannual (8.0 and 2.0-3.5 years) cycles.

The authors suspect that they may be linked with climate forcings, such as solar activity and ENSO.

This would tell us that climate in Central Asia is greatly dependent on the natural factors of solar and oceanic cycles, and not CO2.

Western US droughts worse 1000 years ago

Another recent study just appeared in the Journal of Climate and was authored by a team of scientists led by Toby R. Ault, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University. The findings indicate that the western United States was affected by several megadroughts during the last 1200 years, especially during the (MCA; 800 to 1300 CE).

The scientists found that such drought events are inevitable and occur purely as a consequence of internal climate variability. The researchers also concluded that the observed clustering of megadroughts of the Medieval Climate Anomaly were more likely to have been caused by either “external forcing or by internal climate variability”.

Canada: Scotian warm water “part of the natural variability “

The journal Continental Shelf Research published a study authored by scientists led by David Brickman of the Canadian Bedford Institute of Oceanography. The team examined the warm subsurface water temperatures in the Scotian Shelf region of Eastern Canada 2012, 2014, and 2015.

They found that the observed warming trend should be considered as “part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system”.

AMS: natural variability dominates observed trends

Another a team of scientists led by Elisabeth Kendon of the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom published a paper in the journal of the American meteorological Society which found natural variability appears to dominate current observed trends over the southern United Kingdom (including an increase in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall over the last 30 years).

The authors, citing Sarojini et al., 2016, confirmed that the “attribution of rainfall trends to human influence on local and regional scales is not yet possible”. More uncertainty over the human fingerprint on global climate.

Central Europe precipitation anomalies even greater long ago

Finally a paper published in the International Journal of Climatology and authored by Petr Dobrovolný of the Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Czech Republic, reconstructed precipitation in Central Europe (Czech Republic).

Source: Dobrovolný et al., 2018.

Their findings revealed two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s, and that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation.

In summary, the new studies from all around the world show that weather extremes were as bad or worse in the past than they are currently. Today’s modern climate is in fact well in phase with natural variability.

The papers mentioned above are all presented by Kenneth Richard here.

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Unearthed new evidence (Mangerud and Svendsen, 2018) reveals that during the Early Holocene, when CO2 concentrations hovered around 260 ppm, “warmth-demanding species” were living in locations 1,000 km farther north of where they exist today in Arctic Svalbard, indicating that summer temperatures must have been about “6°C warmer than at present”.

Proxy evidence from two other new papers suggests Svalbard’s Hinlopen Strait  may have reached about 5 – 9°C warmer than 1955-2012 during the Early Holocene (Bartels et al., 2018), and Greenland may have been “4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern [1952-2014]” between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago according to evidence found in rock formations at the bottom of ancient lakes (McFarlin et al., 2018). 

In these 3 new papers, none of the scientists connect the “pronounced” and “exceptional” Early Holocene warmth to CO2 concentrations. 

  Mangerud and Svendsen, 2018 The Holocene Thermal Maximum around Svalbard, Arctic North Atlantic; molluscs show early and exceptional warmth

“Shallow marine molluscs that are today extinct close to Svalbard, because of the cold climate, are found in deposits there dating to the early Holocene. The most warmth-demanding species found, Zirfaea crispata, currently has a northern limit 1000 km farther south, indicating that August temperatures on Svalbard were 6°C warmer at around 10.2–9.2 cal. ka BP, when this species lived there. … After 8.2 cal. ka, the climate around Svalbard warmed again, and although it did not reach the same peak in temperatures as prior to 9 ka, it was nevertheless some 4°C warmer than present between 8.2 and 6 cal. ka BP. … The occurrence of the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, suggests that climate around Svalbard was 2°C warmer than at present as early as about 11 cal. ka BP.  The climate was about 6°C warmer than at present between 10.0 and 9.2 cal. ka BP, as shown by the presence of Zirfaea crispata.  One single specimen of Mytilus is dated to 900 years BP, suggesting a short-lived warm period during the Medieval Warm Period of northern Europe.”

Bartels et al., 2018 Wahlenbergfjord, eastern Svalbard: a glacier-surrounded fjord reflecting regional hydrographic variability during the Holocene?

“During summer, AW [Atlantic Water] rises up to waterdepths as shallow as ~55 m. … Summer surface temperatures [1955-2012] range between up to 3°C at the northern mouth and <-1.5 °C at the southern mouth of the Hinlopen Strait, while winter surface temperatures vary between 0.5 and <~1.5°C (averaged, 1955–2012; Locarnini et al. 2013). … Increased summer insolation probably amplified the surface melting of the glaciers resulting in enhanced meltwater production and in a very high accumulation of finegrained sediments within the fjord […].”

“In addition, during the mild early Holocene conditions, summer sea-surface temperatures probably reaching 8–10°C [~5 – 9°C warmer than 1955-2012] (indicated by M. edulis findings as discussed in Hansen et al. 2011) may have contributed to reducing the number of glaciers that entered the fjord directly as tidewater glaciers and thus causing a diminished IRD input.  … In lake sediments from northwestern Spitsbergen a temperature drop of ~6°C is recorded between c. 7.8 and c. 7 ka [-0.8°C per century], which has been connected to a stronger influence of Arctic Water and expanding sea ice (van der Bilt et al. 2018).”

McFarlin et al., 2018 Pronounced summer warming in northwest Greenland during the Holocene and Last Interglacial

“(Greenland)  Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures [Greenland] 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum [10,000 to 8,000 years ago] in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG [the last interglacial] sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern.”

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Accelerating sea level rise due to global warming is supposed to eat away at the shorelines across the globe. However a recent paper published in the journal Nature here authored by a team scientists led by Arjen Luijendijk found that some 75% of the world’s sandy shorelines are stable or growing!

An analysis of satellite-derived shoreline data indicates that 24% of the world’s sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, but 28% are accreting and 48% are stable.

Also erosion rates exceed 5 m/yr along 4% of the sandy shoreline and are greater than 10 m/yr for 2% of the global sandy shoreline.

Image source: Luijendijk et al., 2018

According to the paper, the application of an automated shoreline detection method to the sandy shorelines resulted in a global dataset of shoreline change rates for the 33 year period 1984–2016.

The scientists also found that Australia and Africa are the only continents for which net erosion (−0.20 m/yr and −0.07 m/yr respectively) is found, with all other continents showing net accretion.

What’s surprising is that another researcher has determined that melting ice caps from global warming induced ice melt does not contribute to sea level rise, and that sea level rise is mostly caused by the Earth’s shape.

3 mm/yr sea level rise “definitely a conjecture”

In a scientific paper published by the journal Geoscience Frontiers, Aftab Alam Khan at the Department of Geology, University of Dhaka in Bangladesh found: “thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/yr) of the 1.8 mm/yr observed sea level rise of the past few decades.” and that the claim and prediction of 3 mm/yr rise of sea-level due to global warming and polar ice-melt “is definitely a conjecture”

He added that the prediction of 4–6.6 ft sea level rise in the next 91 years between 2009 and 2100 is “highly erroneous”!

Khan then concludes that though global warming, both polar and terrestrial ice melts, and climate change might be a reality, all these phenomena are not related to sea level rise and fall.

Ice melt would not contribute to sea level rise

According to Khan, “Geophysical shape of the earth is the fundamental component of the global sea level distribution. Global warming and ice-melt, although a reality, would not contribute to sea-level rise.”

If Kahn’s assertion turns out to be correct, then IPCC scientists will have some major scientific revamping to do.

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