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World Cup & Durian Festa – Pick the Qualifying Teams for Quarter-Finals & Best Investment Idea for 2018

Stand a chance to enjoy durians while watching world cup with your family and friends at the comfort of your home by

1) Picking 4 of the 8 Qualifying Teams for 2018 Fifa World Cup Quarter-Finals

    Finish the sentence : “I think _,_,_,_ will be competing in the quarter finals.”

2) Naming a High Yielding Stock you plan to invest in 2018

    Finish the sentence : ” __ at $__ is a good buy at yield __% because ___”

Two winners will be picked to enjoy a signature Durian Royalty or Musang King from Durian Delivery.

Closing Date : 1st July 2018 5pm
Accepted Entries : FB, Twitter and Website of LadyYouCanBeFree

Courtesy of https://duriandelivery.com.sg (Quote “youcanbefree” for 5% off)

Note : This is not a sponsored ad or product endorsement. Any commercial arrangements between the merchant and the consumer is not the responsibility of this site. Also, Durian season starts 28th June, thus orders & delivery will only be available from 28th June onwards.

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My Stock Report Card for Jan – May 2018

US Stocks

SG Stocks

Total Dividend Collected between Jan – May 2018 : SGD $ 12,686.14

Income distribution in Apr and May came from Nikko Asia Ex Japan Reit ETF, M1, ST Engineering, SGX, Keppel Corp, Starhub, DBS, Sabana, Capitalmall, Suntec, Keppel Reit, Mapletree, Apple, Citibank, Bank of America, 

Total Profit/Loss from Sales of Stock between Jan – May 2018: SGD 5414.10 (Structured Note Knock-Out, Lion Philip S-Reit ETF) .

In the past months, I added Ping An Insurance, Tencent, Alibaba during the market dip and sold away Lion Philip S-Reit ETF.  There’s alot of volatility in the market and I am definitely not a fan of using tweets as the art of the deal.  I learnt that the biggest challenge with a growth portfolio is managing noise in the market and keeping zen. 

What better way to keep zen than listening to Hyukoh’s new album launched just 2 days ago :-). The Singapore reits is undergoing a downtrend, let’s see whether I can pick up some bargains to rebuild my passive portfolio. In the meantime, safe investing everyone !

혁오 (HYUKOH) - 24 : How to find true love and happiness 전곡 듣기 - YouTube
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My Stock Report Card for Jan – Mar 2018

US Stock

SG Stock

Total Dividend Collected between Jan – Mar 2018 : SGD $ 4886.29.

Income distribution in Mar came from Aimsamp Cap Reit, Hutchison Port Holdings, Lion Phillip S-Reit ETF, Apple, Citibank, Bank of America.

Total Profit/Loss from Sales of Stock between Jan – Mar 2018: SGD 0.

I added some JD, Twitter and Facebook during the market dip this month.

A tariff war brewing between China and US is causing much turbulence in the market. Technology stocks has also been  impacted by

1) The social media data scandal (Cambridge Analytica)

2) Trump’s tweets over Amazon

3) Apple dumping Intel.

Hopefully, the upcoming earnings season can bring in some positivity into the market. 

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While everyone is caught up with the #deletefacebook drama which send Facebook shares tanking around 10%. A headline caught my attention.

BIGHIT entertainment beats the big 3 agencies and records the highest profit for 2017

How did a small entertainment company like BIGHIT with only 1 idol group beat the profits of 3 KOSPI listed companies that hosted a number of very popular groups ?

If you look at the numbers, SM brought in the most revenues but is unfortunately not profitable. BIGHIT although has the least revenue is far more profitable than any of the Big 3.

When I googled “Why do you like BTS“, most of the fans highlighted that these are the key attractions

1. Personalities
2. Stage Presence
3. Great Choreography
4. Relatable Lyrics (Youth Growing Pains)

Some quotes from a fan, Heather Lee :

From their song Am I Wrong:
“The world’s goin’ crazy. And you? How bout ya? You think it is okay? I really don’t think it is. Even with ears, there’s no listening; even with eyes, there’s no seeing. A fish lives in everyone’s hearts – Its name is SELFISH SELFISH”

From their song Baepsae:
They call me a try-hard. Our generation has had it hard. Hurry, chase ‘em; My teachers were born with it all. At my part time job, it’s “all for experience”. At school, there’s the teachers. My superiors use violence. In the media they go on about ‘the generation that’s given up.’”

From their song N.O:

“Dreams disappeared: There was no time to rest, it’s a cycle of school, home or an Internet cafe. Everyone lives the same life; students who are pressured to be number
one, live in-between dreams and reality.”

“Who is the one who made us into studying machines? They classify us to either 
being number one or dropping out; they trap us in borders, the adults; there’s no choice but to consent. Even if we think simply, it’s the survival of the fittest.”

5. Creative Team (Storytelling / Alternative Universe MVs)
6. Active Social Media Engagements with Fans

I have to say however I think their ARMY (or, Adorable Representative M.C. for Youth) fanbase are the ones that really pushed them to the global stage. The way the fandom operates on social media is AMAZING. They create a calendar of hashtag keywords that they wish to trend on twitter and it will start appearing in the worldwide and local top trend list on the exact day that they have planned. They even have two twitter groups called “BTS ARMY Statistics” @btsarmystats and “BTS Voting Team” @btsvotingteam which keeps track of all their tweets, retweets, vote and view counts across all the different social media platforms and music charts. I’m not sure whether there’s any digital agencies today that can be as dedicated, coordinated and effective as them. Their hard work resulted in BTS topping many music charts worldwide and winning many music awards. They overtook Justin Bieber for the Billboard Music Award for Top Social Artist in 2017. They even earned a Guinness World Record 2018 for the most Twitter engagements for a music group.

The ARMY are also extremely creative group when it comes to content creation. If you do a simple search on youtube, you will see a huge range of entertaining and sometimes high quality contents.

I thought these analysis made by the fans were extremely deep and impressive. Probably could be used as teaching aid materials in class. Never thought one could analyze an MV like that. Here are some samples :

MV tribute to Sewol Ferry Disaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tye1ONFeKis

MV is based on thebook Demian by Hermann Hesse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_VDSKdi_2U

Fascinated, I decided to take a peek at the quarterly reports of Twitter to explore whether BTS were responsible for expanding Twitter’s international user base and helped them achieved profitability for the first time in Q4 2017. Apparently, BTS started gaining worldwide popularity during their release of The Most Beautiful Moment in Life, Part 1 album launched on April 29 2015. Looking at the user growth charts, there were 12 million new users added to Twitter between Q2 2015 to Q4 2017. With BTS gaining more exposure in US and launching new album in Japan, I will be keenly interested to see whether that would significantly influence this growth

.

There were talks that BIGHIT might launch an IPO. If they do, they probably should do it in the US. Looking at the way ARMY is ran, who knows it might become the biggest IPO in history.

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Happy Woman’s Day !

Let’s celebrate this day by cheering a Singapore lady who always speaks with her heart during budget every year!

“We are a nation well-versed with fear as a motivating force. We’ve come very far in surviving as a country by not ignoring our fears. But it is not the only emotion worth listening to. Fear alone cannot bring us past a space of surviving into a space of thriving.

When I live-poll youths in JCs, polys and ITEs about what is one word they associate with the future of Singapore, you know what word consistently emerges as the biggest on their word cloud?

It’s the word – “Uncertain”.

So yes, I think we have definitely succeeded in engraining in them the message of our vulnerabilities. I think they got it.

The emotion of fear while useful can become uninspiring and paralysing as a mood. Our youths are hungry for a new certainty.

And that certainty can only come from the promise of a new story, a story of a Who and Why that is bigger than the sum of our fears about What and How.

Our youths need to hear the greater story of all the things we want to do for love – not just fear. A story straight from the heart of every leader in the land about all the meaning that money can buy – not just for ourselves but for each other.

At some point, we need to discern when to stop operating in fear that the bottom will fall out of Our Singapore Story.

There is a time for fear. And there is also a time for courage
– courage born from the fire of fighting for our ideals – to simply say in the face of fear:

That’s enough.

We have enough.

We are enough.

It’s time to let more of us have enough too.

In that space of sufficiency, we shall find our satisfaction.

I do see the Finance Minister’s heart for the people. I support his openness to finding new ways forward and his courage to make hard choices.

I hope the Minister and the government can work together with a new generation, idealists and pragmatists alike, to help them dream of a better future that they would be proud to call their own.

Snippets from Shiao-yin Kuik Budget 2018 speech “The True Cost of Living” – 

Here’s my favorite speech from her during the last Budget.

NMP Kuik Shiao Yin's passionate speech about the poor... Well Done! - 01Mar2017 - YouTube
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My Stock Report Card for Jan – Feb 2018

US Stock

SG Stock

Total Dividend Collected between Jan – Feb 2018 : SGD $ 2,650.71.

Income distribution in Jan and Feb came from Aimsamp Cap Reit, Nikko Asia Reit ETF, Singtel, Sabana Reits, Keppel Reits, Capitalmall Trust, SGX and Suntec Reit.

Total Profit/Loss from Sales of Stock between Jan – Feb 2018: SGD 0.

Gong Xi Fa Cai ! Happy New Year ! Don’t forget the 12 Million Toto draw tomorrow.

I added some Tencent, MapleTree Logistics, MapleTree Industrial and ST Engineering during the market dip this month. February has been a roller coaster ride for the US stock market, the Volatility Index surged to almost 30 and the stock market plunge almost 1000 points giving back 50% of all the gains in 2017. While I was shopping for bargains, the market went up again recovering what it has lost before I could take any concrete actions. Looks like we are now trading in an environment where the robots have a certain set of stop loss rules thus triggering this panic sell despite a relatively healthy and vibrant economy. Did you managed to get some bargains during the flash sale ? If yes, congratulations !

Songs that are in my playlist these months  : (Yeap, I caught a Hyukoh virus :-p)

HYUKOH (혁오) – Paul ['23'] LYRICS [Han/Rom/Eng] - YouTube
[MV] hyukoh(혁오) _ Gondry(공드리) - YouTube
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Lady, You Can Be Free by Lady, You Can Be Free - 9M ago

Yes ! I finally sold off bulk of my Starhub stock and I am heart broken.  

Starhub has been one of my favourite stock that I have kept close to my heart for more than 10 years (since 2005 where I first started my investment journey). Total gains from Starhub todate is $ 383,340 (+95%). (Dividends : $272,666; Capital gain : $97,658; Unrealised Profit : $13,016 ).

When the management announced that Starhub was going to cut dividend Q1 2017 this year, I decided to trim a significant % of the stock. 

Why did I fall in love with Starhub

  1. Solid history of paying and increasing dividends.
  2. Yearly dividend distribution commitment and forecast by management.
  3. Loved their Hubbing Strategy.
  4. Telecom sectors are typically deemed defensive sectors during market corrections.

The Art of Selling

Although I have made seemingly good profits from Starhub, I felt that I could have done better in terms of the timing of  the sale.

Looking at the chart, if I had sold at it’s peak at $4.73 in year 2013, I would be looking at a profit of 581,767 (+144 % Capital Gain : $454,133 Dividend : $127,634). Although I was aware of these signs of trouble, I only decided to take action when the dividend cut was confirmed as I was hoping that the management will still try to keep it’s 20 cents dividend commitment for 2017. Even if there was a dividend cut, I wasn’t expecting the price to fluctuate so badly. The  share buyback and CEO Tan Tong Hai acquisition of 100K stocks at $2.795 in Nov 2016 also gave me the false assumptions that maybe the dividend cut wouldn’t happen.

Signs of Trouble

1.Disruption 

Uprising of Over-The-Top Players resulting in declines in value-added services revenues and lack of transformation strategy.

  •            Year 2008 – Launch of iPhone with Appstore.
  •            Year 2013 – Facebook mobile growth.
  •            Year 2016 – Netflix launch in Singapore.

2. Dividend-to-Free-Cash-Flow Ratio > 100%

If a company has a dividend-to-free-cash-flow-ratio over 100% then that means that the company is paying out more to its shareholders than it’s free cash flow. This is typically not a good recipe for the company’s financial health; it can be a sign that the dividend payment will be cut in the future. Sure enough, Starhub experienced dividend-to-free-cash-flow-ratio > 100% in 2013. It managed to hang on to 5 years before it eventually surrenders and cut it’s dividend in 2017.

           

3. Competition 

4. Shareholder Exit & Sell Off – Q4 2016

17 Aug 2016 Robert JaySachs dispose 100K at $3.90.

30 Dec 2016 Robert JaySachs Resigns

5. Dividend Cut – Q1 2017

Moving forward, I probably need to set some rules to protect capital gains in my dividend stocks. Thinking back, if I had sold it off at it’s peak, would I have picked it up later at a higher price and is now suffering from a capital loss ?

Do you have an exit strategy / checklist for your dividend stocks or similar experience to share? I would love to hear from you !

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