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It’s been a long time coming, but the Updated Feasibility Study (UFS) for Orezone’s …

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2018 got off to a roaring start for both the spot price of cobalt and many mining stocks associated with the suddenly in-very-much-demand clean energy metal. Aspiring producer and current advanced-stage developer eCobalt Solutions …

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FI Fighter by Fi Fighter - 1w ago

Happy weekend all!

for kicks, I’m going to spit out some early FI/investing “truisms” over the next wk many ppl prob think they know, really don’t, keep falling for and getting duped by. let’s see how many subs I lose!

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #1: just b/c u have a lot of money and achieved early FI doesn’t mean u know shit about investing. Being popular and well-liked don’t make u no investing authority. maybe u just got lucky. (how bout u ack that, at least?)

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #2: It’s easy to look like investing G if u never disclose trades no one need 2 know 9/10 lost $, blew up, wash, n u won big on ONE! Next thing, u got fancy azz landing page, cheese promo vid, newsletter, u pounding chest telling world u da BEST! n fools be throw $ at u!

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #3: U make BIG $$$ talking bout making $ u can buy anything return yield, n u write reg passive income report. fools be like hot daymn i want me some that too! u buy WTV stock. if WTV does shit readers lose $. u lose lil but don’t care cuz more sub = REAL $$$$ rinse repeat

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #4: u want 2 become finance “expert”. easy. throw out bunch of quotes on twitter make u sound smart, poetic, sophisticated, ahead of curve and a thinker. can be own quotes u pull out of ass or borrow. don’t matter this how u build brand n become authority quotes > analysis

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #5 u who speak loudest n have most bravado gain most followers! large following give u “street cred” u can then say ANYTHING n fools believe. wonderful 2 have in place for pump n dumping!

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #6: pump n dump 101 -> only talk positive. link million articles 2 stock even if NOT direct related but show macro pic bullish. make outlandish claims and back them up w “real data” u pull from ass. Diss peer group. call critics TROLLS who down ramp bc want cheap shares!

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #7: pump n dump 101 (part 2) -> u gotta let everyone know that everything u say are FACTS n u are unbiased. U a true fighter for the ppl who got everyone’s back n best interest at heart. yes yes repeat x nauseum pic.twitter.com/RPgqtDxuDL

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #8: Turnkey Investing aka selling overpriced rental property to cash rich out of state newbs works b/c clients don’t know shit about market and r too busy to do proper research. locals would never buy so u must hire pro marketers to laud virtues n pay em $$$ to lure sheep

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #9: why wouldn’t u want to own expensive ass property ppl fight tooth n nail to own? that means u own valuable shit! that’s how u build wealth. only newbs want to own junkers where a SINGLE major repair can cost same as value of home. means land is WORTHLESS n high risk!

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Truism #10: post FI ain’t always sunshine n lollipops. if u was super driven before beach gets old, good food tastes blah, u feel lost a lot. directionless. lots of days pass and u do shit all day. can b depressing. but to keep up appearances best if u shut up and don’t tell ppl

— FI Fighter (@FI_Fighter) July 7, 2018

Fight On!

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To say that 2017 was a tumultuous year for lithium explorer/developer Birimian Limited …

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I first started becoming very bullish on electric vehicles in 2013 after I spotted a Tesla Model 3; I saw this interesting looking car (I didn’t know what the hell it was) that caught my eye in the parking lot at the company office. Not long after, I said, “holy fack this thing is awesome… and the future!” In many ways, what I observed back then already had the look and feel of something earth-shattering, which was very reminiscent to what I was witnessing first-hand with the smartphone revolution.

Of course, being young and green (no pun intended) back in the day, I totally missed out on speculating in the smartphone space, and well, I never really was able to capitalize or make any significant $$$ off of that wonderful window of opportunity that opened itself up due to the nature of hyperbolic growth/adoption… I do recall some FAT CAT directors in my company having bet the farm on stocks like Apple (AAPL), convinced the iPhone would take over the world, and well, if they held their shares to this day, they’re probably up a few million dollars… at least.

Wanting to be early on the next big thing, I guess you could say 2013 was when I subconsciously became a speculator (mama look at me now!)… I remember putting in what back then felt like a HUGE sum of money into Tesla (TSLA) stock, right before an earning’s release. Despite all the growing hype and hoopla over this new car company, I had no way of knowing the stock could run up from $50/share to… what it is currently sitting at today…

I made some decent gains, but hot damn, don’t I wish I held on for just a bit longer?

Anyway, fast-forward to today, and well, I’m still seeing a ton of opportunity for speculators who want to take a gamble on what is still what I (and many others like me) consider “the next big thing.” However, this time around, instead of betting on an individual car company succeeding (which in hindsight was a MASSIVE gamble), I deep-down feel like it would now be so much easier just betting on the commodities space, instead, since you don’t have to pick and choose so carefully… In other words, since I really feel like I have no earthly idea who will win the race and become the next Apple, Samsung, etc., I’m just gonna go with the supply chain, instead… The strategy is to target after the best: lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper mining companies that will be feeding into the lithium-ion hyper-growth story, which to my knowledge will be essential for powering these electric vehicles for the foreseeable future.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but through my research, I really don’t see anything on the horizon that will take the place and overtake lithium-ion batteries anytime soon…

So, that’s where we are at today, and as readers may recall, I’ve been rambling on and on about clean energy mining stocks since the spring/summer of 2016.

Granted, when it comes to the commodities sector, these mining stocks are volatile as ffff, but I mean, I guess you just have to adapt to the Rules of the Game, if you want to play, and learn to deal with it…

Sure, like anyone else, sometimes the insane volatility in the share price of these stocks drives me crazy and I wish they would just chill out and stabilize, sometimes, but for me this is just a good reminder why it’s so important to take a step back a lot of the times, and focus more on the MACRO TREND.

Electric vehicles are just starting to hit their stride, and my instincts are telling me we aren’t really even in the 1st inning yet…

Sounds crazy, perhaps, since I’ve been fixated on the idea of electric vehicles taking over the world since 2013… I mean, it’s been over 5 years for crying out loud! But that’s just how technology works, sometimes… It takes what feels like an eternity to gain traction, and then BAMMMMMM, next thing you know, it’s tipping point, and shortly after that, probably even my mom and grandma will be driving a fully electric vehicle…

Well, maybe not, but when mass adoption occurs, it’s absolutely breathtaking how quickly things can change…

So, I’m trying my best not to sweat the technique… and just let this most fascinating story play itself out… I take a lot of solace in knowing MEGA-BEHEMOTH companies (CATL, LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic, etc.) are betting billions of dollars on this movement, and many governments are even going “all in”, putting plans in place to eventually phase out archaic Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles…

Really, can you possibly envision a future where the young bucks of today/tomorrow are gonna wanna drive ICE cars when they get their driver’s license? That’s like them picking up a brick Nokia black and white phone and trying to look cool to their peers… Shoot, once they perfect autonomous driving, future generations won’t even need a driver’s license at all! And ain’t no autonomous vehicles of the future going to be designed around ICE technology; autonomous vehicles go hand-in-hand with fully electric ones. Going the way of ICE would be like me installing a wi-fi card onto my old Polaroid film camera… WTF would be the point in doing that?

Anyway…

When I look around me, I’m seeing very exciting developments all across town. I remember back in 2013 when spotting a Tesla Model S was perhaps a bi-weekly occurrence (outside of the one sitting in the company parking lot, of course)… and then around 2014/2015, spotting a Tesla became much easier to do… These days, I can make a 10 minute drive to pick up lunch/coffee, and I’ll likely run into 5-6 Teslas… Not just Model S, anymore, but a few of the Model X and especially the Model 3.

Times are changing…

No, we’re nowhere near tipping point yet, but if I had to venture a guess, I’d say we are entering the iPhone 1 stage of the game…

Next up, the iPhone 3G!

And then, hopefully some kind of Samsung Galaxy/Android contender answers the bell to take on the Model 3…

Perhaps we’ve got a few Blackberry-like electric vehicles out there already, but really, it’s the Model 3 that’s leading the charge right now, from what I can see.

For speculators, I know it can be uber frustrating at times, especially when the macro picture is looking so damn promising (exponentially growing demand for clean energy metals yet precipitously declining share prices in these associated mining stocks) but as usual, it’s a tricky game, one where very few people will probably be successful in making good money at…

Hey, if it was easy, everyone would be filthy rich, right?

The market likes to throw a lot of curveballs at us, never forget that…

But yeah, take a step back and you should be able to see CLEARLY, we’ve still got a ways to go before we even enter the Early Majority phase!

Today, are global electric vehicle sales even at 1% yet?

Why freak out so early!?!

So, yeah, again, I’m just gotta try my best to tune out the noise and focus on the macro picture…

Back in 2013, when I used to get super excited after spotting a Model S, I would share with my friends, and their reply was:

“Dude, electric vehicles will never take off. Spotting a Model S is like looking for a unicorn.”

Now, in 2018, when I still get super excited about coming across Teslas, these same people will respond with:

“Dude, electric vehicles are nothing special. Teslas are everywhere now.”

I can’t wait for the day when I’m yet again super excited to spot Teslas, or any other electric vehicle, and my friends will shout:

“Dude, you’re annoying as fuck. Next thing we know, you’re gonna be jumping for joy when you spot a human being on the street.”

I’ll never win… I’m damned if I do, regardless.

But should that last scenario play itself out and that glorious day eventually arrives, I’m hoping I’ll have a big smile on my face.

Not just because I’ll still be super excited to see electric vehicles everywhere on the road, but hopefully, I will have made out like a bandit this time around.

Like dem old FAT CAT directors who bet on AAPL and the iPhone…

We’ll see…

Fight On!

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FI Fighter by Fi Fighter - 1w ago

Happy 4th of July to all my fellow Americans out there, and to early financial independence freedom fighters everywhere in the world! On a day where we celebrate: liberty, courage, perseverance, determination, grit, etc. I can’t help but take a moment to reflect on my own early FI journey.

It hasn’t always been smooth-sailing, and there have been many ups and downs, but the key takeaway for me is — Never give up! Approach your dreams and true passions with reckless abandon. We only get one crack at the Game of Life so we better make it count! Don’t settle for the status quo, scripted life, and all the other shit everyone else is spewing in your ear on a daily basis.

It’s YOUR LIFE, so do you!

Study more, work harder, work smarter, surround yourself and build up a potent network filled with other like-minded individuals… Push yourself and let others inspire and motivate you to achieve even bigger and better things. Cut out the toxicity and be more positive!

Your dreams CAN become reality!

You CAN have the life you’ve always wanted!

And if you’re lucky enough, you CAN even make mama proud in the process…

2018 has been a rough and tumble year for me so far, but I’m doing my best to weather the storm and hang in there. Today, I took the time to just let all the bullshit that has been afflicting me go and remember to celebrate and enjoy life.

One step at a time… If we keep chipping away, keep our heads up, stay focused and optimistic, great things are bound to happen.

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Fight On!

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FI Fighter by Fi Fighter - 1w ago

When it comes to life, change is a constant and there will always be good times and bad times. For anyone with any experience in the Game of Speculation, you’re well aware that markets are volatile and resemble something like that of a sine wave.

Ups and downs.

Peaks and valleys.

Life is really no different from speculating — It’s a case study on human behavior and psychology.

Which is why during the tough times, I take solace in the following quote, which has comforted me on countless occasions:

“There is neither happiness nor unhappiness in this world; there is only the comparison of one state with another. Only someone who has experienced the depths of despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss. It is necessary to have wished for death in order to know how good it is to live.” -Edmond Dantes, The Count of Monte Cristo

Really, without the “bad” how would we even be able to distinguish and determine what “good” even is? So, right now, as I try my best to navigate myself out of a very sticky situation (which has really forced my hand), I’m not going to lament and dwell on the fact that I’m going to be walking away losing hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Yes, it hurts a lot…

But it is what it is…

I mean, just earlier this year, I was celebrating a major accomplishment with you readers when my mining stocks portfolio eclipsed $1 million in profits, and I essentially (more or less) declared “victory”, giving hints (perhaps not direct enough, in hindsight) that I was just about ready to call it a day as an aggressive speculator:

“Since I’ve made my gains, I think understandably so, my focus has to shift to wealth preservation mode much more so than trying to find the next major hyper-alpha-insane gains generation leads.”

Anyway, even while that awesome milestone was playing itself out, in the back of my mind, I was already bracing myself for the coming storm (which I kind of knew was already lurking behind the scenes, due to serious issues pertaining to my out-of-state turnkey turkey rental properties popping up in late 2017).

Granted, I had no idea the severity of the storm, and yes, I probably grossly underestimated the final damage it would ultimately wreak on my finances.

Even now, as I’m writing this, this most recent onslaught of financial devastation that I’ve had to endure isn’t necessarily fully resolved just yet, so I am still somewhat in limbo, patiently waiting for a complete resolution so that I can finally move on with my life.

Straight up — It’s been very tough and trying times for me personally, which is why I’m so thankful and grateful to the hardcore readers of this blog who have supported me through thick and thin. Words can’t express what your kindness mean to me… It really is giving me the strength I need to persevere and carry on the fight.

I do realize that this blog has altered “off course” this year, and under better circumstances, of course I would prefer to be focusing more of my time, effort, and writing on the “next great investment/speculation idea”, “more success stories”, and so on and so forth.

But you know what, although the Dark Days really suck, they are indeed part of the early FI journey/story and omitting these real life details would be entirely misleading. As mentioned in the beginning of this post, life has its ups and downs and nobody goes through the game smooth-sailing the entire way through.

That’s just not reality.

So why sugarcoat things?

Funny enough, I spoke to a friend recently about my investment disasters, and he had this to say (I’m paraphrasing):

“Everybody goes through shit. Most people just prefer not to share the juicy details b/c it makes them look bad. It’s easier to just sweep things under the rug and not let the whole world know what’s really going on.

And dude, you’re blogging on a public domain!

You’re only damaging your own image and name by talking about your failures.

People don’t want the truth. They want happy fairytales. That’s what sells. That’s how you become popular. That’s how you make $$$ on the web.

I’m sure someone out there respects what you’re doing, but for sure it isn’t the conventional way of doing things.”

I bring the above quote up because it makes me think about certain things…

Years back, I used to be a lot more “conservative” as a blogger. I used to watch the things that I said and oftentimes I refrained from using profanity. I guess I tried to be more careful with my approach to writing because I didn’t want to rock the boat or stir up the hornet’s nest with anyone.

But as time passed, I sort of realized that the “real conversations” that I was having with more and more investors behind the scenes resembled something entirely different from how I was writing and structuring my posts — There was so much more RAW emotion in those private chats!

In “real life”, especially when we’re talking about high-stakes endeavors like investing/speculating, people are extremely: passionate, animated, determined, committed, obsessed even…

So for me, it was very much trying to figure out a way to not only convey the message that I was trying to get across, but also figuring out a way to keep intact the RAW emotion element of things.

As such, that partially explains why I like to “ramble” so much… Yes, with profanity-laced diatribes unedited.

Anyway, when you link all that up with the highs and lows of investing, well, again, it’s going to be very emotional, particularly if you want the real authentic experience.

And I really don’t want to take that away from readers. I don’t want to revert to my old school more conservative ways where I was watering down everything; that’s bullshit and not the true story!

Yes, the highs are awesome and making money puts you in a state of mind that is beyond euphoric…

Private conversation from late 2017.

And losing money really sucks…

Private conversation from earlier this year…

The above text (from a close friend) is actually a lot more “mild” than some of the stuff I regularly get from friends/family…

Something like that…

You get the idea.

I want this blog to capture and encompass all the RAW emotion that makes life exactly what it is… What makes us human.

I’m never gonna have all the right answers.

I’ve made too many mistakes to count and i will keep making them throughout the course of my life.

We are imperfect creatures, after all.

So, I want to share with you all: the good, bad, and ugly.

And you can see that even during the grueling hardships, when all hope seems lost and life is indeed a living hell, well, we can still overcome all obstacles!

Yes, I may bitch and complain a lot, and during the lowest of lows my confidence will be shattered and I will feel like throwing in the towel, but I won’t ever give up!

Hopefully, despite all the negativity and “doom and gloom” floating on here at times, there’s someone else out there who can resonate with what I’m going through and perhaps they can find strength and the motivation to keep going too!

Misery loves company, but together we are stronger!

Anyway…

Once the storm has cleared, yes, I really would like to resume back to the ol’ regular scheduled program!

Until that moment arrives, I hope you all can bear with me as I try and navigate out of my own personal financial nightmare situation.

Here’s that quote again:

“There is neither happiness nor unhappiness in this world; there is only the comparison of one state with another. Only someone who has experienced the depths of despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss. It is necessary to have wished for death in order to know how good it is to live.” -Edmond Dantes, The Count of Monte Cristo

All things considered, really, it feels damn good to be alive!

Thank you all for sticking by me, in the good times and bad.

Fight On!

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To say that it’s been a rough and tumble 2018 so far would be a pretty accurate assessment of how things have been going for me… As readers may recall, I’ve thrown out multiple hints in recent posts about some of the struggles (beyond aggravating frustration) that I’ve been dealing with in regards to my out-of-state turnkey properties gone horribly wrong…

Such is life…

Really, you can’t win em all, and in the Game of Life, there are going to be plenty of ups and downs (this is something that I’m working to come to grips with)…

With that said, I’m going to do my best to not dwell too much on the catastrophe(s), and if anything, I’m looking forward to sharing my learnings with readers so that hopefully nobody else, particularly newbie investors, ever has to blow themselves up chasing after fool’s gold… like I did.

All in due time…

For now, I can say that my own personal situation trying to get out of dodge (that’s putting it nicely) finds me in a much better spot now than where I was just a few months ago…

Point blank — My life has been a total nightmare (pretty much) since I returned from the Philippines in the beginning of March.

You know, it’s ironic, sad, crazy… and maybe even a bit funny at the same time…

Early FI is supposed to be all about COMPLETE FREEDOM… To be able to do what you want, when you want… without many of the stresses and burdens that we normally have to struggle with when we’re working the 9-5 grind for a demanding employer…

So, when I walked away from the corporate life in 2016, a part of me believed it was, “onto better days…”

Although subconsciously, I guess you could also say I saw the “writing on the wall”… which would explain why in the middle of 2014, I did a complete 180 reversal, stopped buying out-of-state turnkey properties junkers and instead re-dedicated my focus towards accumulating tier 1 rental properties in the Bay Area (in hindsight a really brilliant move on my part that is saving my ass at the moment!)…

But really, having to stress out day and night, pretty much 24/7 about non-performing rental properties disasters is no fun task… especially when you don’t have a job!

What I thought were “assets”, over time, revealed to me to be the complete opposite — Insane “money pits”, or “liabilities” would be a much more accurate description of the crap that I owned out-of-state…

Prior to having to “firesale” away two of my turnkey turkey rental properties, I honestly would have given them away if I could have found someone crazy enough to assume my mortgages…

Sadly I could not…

Well, I guess you could say it serves me right…

Logically speaking, I mean c’mon… just what in the world was I really thinking? Did I really think I could succeed owning junk assets in shitty locations, all the while relying 100% on somebody else to take care of my investments for me?

Not family…

Not close friends…

But complete strangers?

Sure, there are plenty of good people out there, but let’s be real here — Unless we are talking about people who really care about your financial well being, everything’s gonna come at a price… an exorbitant one, probably…

You want HIGH QUALITY service?

Sure, you might luck out and find it… but it’s likely gonna cost you a pretty penny (or an arm and a leg if you’re not so lucky)…

And if you instead elect to pinch pennies and employ LOW QUALITY staff?

YOU’RE GONNA GET FKIN REKT!!!

Look, I’m not a very smart guy, but even I caught on pretty quick to the reality and future prospects of my dogshit properties… They were doomed to fail!

I had to jump ship and bail out now…

I had to sell at a MASSIVE loss, in hopes of minimizing even more potential future damage…

For anyone who says that property appreciation is not that important/a big deal, doesn’t know what the fuck they are talking about!

Appreciation is the most wonderful exit strategy you could ever ask for in real estate!!!

My out-of-state rentals all haven’t appreciated jack shit since I bought them, which is why I greatly regret my decision to ever get involved with them in the first place! My worst investments…. EVER! Especially those shitty duplexes from hell…

To say all this drama has been a HUGE energy drain, immense mental anguish (and suffering) to my overall health would be an understatement… which all explains why I’ve been so erratic and unpredictable this year, especially with my writing schedule and routine…

I’m telling you, again, early FI is supposed to be about freedom and peace of mind! What I had going on (especially since March) was the complete opposite of all that!

Instead of cherishing and savoring each and every day, oftentimes, really, I wish I had a fast-forward button so I could speed up the whole process of selling off two of my rental properties lemons…

It was that bad…

I was that miserable…

I felt trapped in purgatory…

Working a typical 9-5 job seemed like bliss in comparison to the shit that I was going through…

I got tired of having to deal with more problems, each and everyday… oftentimes, the only “remedy” would be to throw more money at the never-ending problem…

On many occasions, I felt sick to my stomach, knowing that I was literally lighting a match to my hard-earned $$$…

Of course, because the situation I found myself in was so precarious, there wasn’t always an easy way out… and minimizing the damage, it wasn’t always so straight-forward…

Again, I apologize for not being able to elaborate on more specific details at this time, but eventually, I do hope to share with readers my journey to (near) financial ruin…

I’ve always believed that my failures are 1,000,000x more valuable to readers than my successes…

Someone told me long ago, “The true measure of intelligence is being able and willing to learn from someone else’s mistakes so you don’t have to repeat them yourself.”

I’m very passionate/adamant about the path to early FI… I’ve tried many things along the way there, and there are certain things I really believe work well… and many things that I now know are nothing more than bullshit, lies, deceit, shadiness, and marketing hype designed to reel in and dupe unsuspecting newb investors… like myself.

Live and learn.

I could be: bitter, broken, defeated, jaded, angry, insane, wallowing in self-pity, etc.

Not gonna do that…

Right now, quite honestly, I’m just so grateful (and happy) to be alive.

I’ve been through hell… and back… I wouldn’t wish what happened to me onto ANYONE ELSE, even my worst enemy (I actually don’t have one, but you get the idea)!

Being GENUINE and AUTHENTIC isn’t gonna make you popular or win you many followers… but I’ll take the honest and lonely approach over the alternative, anyday of the week! There’s enough despicable scum and vermin out there, and they need to be eradicated from this earth! Well, at least their bullshit tactics need to be called out! These fuckers shouldn’t be allowed to get away with their heinous ways and total disservice to the early FI community!

It’s up to folks like myself (who have direct first-hand experience) to spread the word truth to the people…

I will be back and emerge from this carnage better than ever before!

And I want to help out as many people as I can (even more people after this fiasco!) so that they too can get to early FI… I have a newfound purpose in life! If I was motivated before, you ain’t seen nothing yet!

Thanks for all the support!

Fight On!

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Speculation isn’t easy at all… In order to make big gains, you have to be positioned early into a story, be right on the underlying future direction of your bet, and you’ve got to have enough conviction to “buy right and sit tight.”

It can be a rollercoaster ride much of the time, and since nobody has a crystal ball, there’s no way to know when the next wave up (or down) will occur…

If you’re lucky, your speculation thesis can play out in the course of a just few months… If not (like the case of those waiting for the spot price of physical silver to soar to new record highs), it can be an agonizingly long wait… that feels like an eternity…

The only way to not get shaken out, is you’ve got to have that conviction…

Where does conviction come from?

Usually from countless (thousands?) of hours of thorough research, looking at all viewpoints — From ultra bull to extreme bear and everything in between…

Let’s use an example…

In the case of cobalt, at the start of this year there were pretty much nothing but bullish articles being pumped out on the daily…

In the past month or so, like the flip of a switch, sentiment towards cobalt has very much gone from supreme optimism to downright “doom and gloom” pessimism…

From Clean Technica (June 9, 2018).

Here are some noteworthy quotes:

CEO Elon Musk said recently that battery cells used in Model 3 have achieved the highest energy density while “significantly reducing cobalt content,” increasing nickel content, and still maintaining superior thermal stability.“The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1.”

“We have already cut down cobalt usage substantially,” Kenji Tamura, who is in charge of Panasonic’s automotive battery business, confirmed. “We are aiming to achieve zero usage in the near future, and development is underway.”

Sounds pretty bleak for the future outlook of cobalt, doesn’t it?

And when negative articles that are coming out are coinciding with the decline of your underlying speculation (in this case the spot price of cobalt metal itself), well, it’s gonna be a real gut check time for a lot of speculators who will have to sit back and re-assess their speculation thesis…

From InfoMine.

Double whammy!

Not surprisingly, in the face of all this, a lot of the cobalt-related mining stocks have suffered in share price performance as well…

Triple whammy!

But with these things, especially if we’re dealing with macro trends (that usually take many years to play out), all of a sudden (or even the next day), the market can seemingly change its tune again, with some more positive stories coming out…

Just like that…

From Reuters (June 14, 2018).

Here are some noteworthy quotes:

Panasonic Corp expects to more than triple its cobalt consumption in five years’ time, industry sources said, even as the company aims to develop cobalt-free automotive batteries in the near future.

“That 25,000 tonnes is a much bigger number than anybody expected. I suspect they are very concerned about cobalt supplies in the future,” a source at a cobalt producer said.

A cobalt industry source said: “Panasonic are normally very cautious and conservative about their estimates. If anything, they talk it down. The 25,000-tonne number came as a shock to us.”

“There’s a lot of noise about 8:1:1, but they haven’t managed to make it work yet. Zero cobalt is even further away,” the cobalt industry source said.

For many speculators, it’s altogether way too confusing to try and figure out…

One minute, we’re screaming, “Oh no the end is near for the cobalt narrative! It’s going obsolete tomorrow. Sell everything!!!”

Then, the next minute, it’s back to, “There’s gonna be an insane supply crunch! Demand will swamp supply so I gotta be in it to win it!”

Back and forth…

Over and over, again and again…

So, then, how does one make money in this type of whimsical market that can’t seem to ever reach consensus and make up its mind?

In my eyes, you simply have to:

“Buy low and sell high.”

Temper that greed during the hyperbolic moonshots, and remember in the back of your mind that markets are cyclical (especially commodities)… When you’re sitting on MASSIVE profits, never forget to de-risk positions and take back your principal (and perhaps even more than that)… On the flipside, when it feels like a perfect storm of bad news, you’ve got to be able to keep calm, stop looking at the price charts every 5 minutes, and remember to focus mostly on the underlying macro trends/fundamentals… If your speculation thesis is fully intact (and arguably getting even stronger by the minute), it’s typically not the wrong move to get more aggressive and do your accumulation work when others are shitting themselves and trampling over each other, headed towards the exits…

It’s not easy… If it was, everyone would be doing it…

It can feel like a total rollercoaster ride…

It’s without question, lots of times, a very boring Game of Patience

But that’s just how the game goes…

You gotta learn how to filter out the noise.

Happy Hunting!

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Some people take a lot of pride in being contrarians… Others won’t invest a single $ unless the masses and mainstream media are all up on an investment and shilling the crap out of it…

I really don’t care either way, I just want to look for deals… wherever they are.

But in general, in the Game of Speculation, here’s a some basic guidelines I like to use when shopping:

  • When you feel scared shitless and everyone around you is clamoring that “the sky is falling“, it’s usually a good time to start nibbling… buying in tranches (into immense weakness).
  • When you feel like a fucking genius and think you are the greatest thing since sliced bread, it’s usually a good time to start trimming… selling in tranches (into immense strength).

Yes, oftentimes, the above rule-of-thumbs will be practiced with individual stocks/investments, but I think it’s also so important not to look at things from too myopic a lens…

Take a step back… and look at the macro view… It’s your compass…

  • If an entire asset class (that isn’t going the way of the dodo bird) is crashing and burning, you should be able to contain your FEAR… The better the underlying fundamentals of the ENTIRE asset class are, the more cool, calm, and collected you should be able to convince yourself to feel. Buying, then, should be a whole lot easier to do…
  • If an entire asset class (don’t care if it is a dodo bird or not) is soaring to the moon and everyone around you is screaming about lambos, you should do everything possible to smash your GREED. Be humble, count your blessings, thank your lucky stars, and ignore all the insane FOMO rush stampeding in from the masses… Selling, then, should be a whole lot easier to do…

When something is tanking, you have to consider the overall asset class and sector, because it is indeed dangerous trying to “catch a falling knife.” For example, if an individual stock is cratering through the floor but the rest of the sector is neutral/flat or rising to new heights, holy fack, that’s a major RED FLAG and CLEAR INDICATOR to proceed with caution…

However, on the flipside, when something is BRIMMING full steam ahead, it really doesn’t matter at all what the asset class and overall sector are doing… Selling high means you’re raking in the dough, regardless, and that’s all that matters in this game!

Anyway…

Nobody has a crystal ball…

It’s impossible to perfectly catch market tops and bottoms…

Investing/speculating isn’t easy at all…

But I think by following some basic guidelines, we can try and help position ourselves a lot better to achieve success in our endeavors.

“Buy low and sell high.”

All the best!

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