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I annotate and explain an example use of Poisson process modelling to test an important hypothesis about the frequency of mass shootings in ..read more
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I show how modelling the distribution of an underlying continuous variable that has been clouded by binning is much better way of ..read more
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Forecasting unemployment is hard, with lots of complex bi-directional causality. Also, while AIC is asymptotically equivalent to cross- ..read more
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I use time series forecast cross-validation to explore simulated data and sort out the real and the fake effects between variables ..read more
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Data is good, data skills are better and a data skills plan is best ..read more
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The polls did worse than usual in predicting the Australian federal election, but the pundits were far worse than the polls ..read more
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A few small explorations of idiosyncracies with polls, a couple of days before the Australian federal election ..read more
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I familiarise myself with the 2016 Australian Election Study, a wonderful source of individual level data on attitudes and behaviour ..read more
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I ponder the limitations of animation, and how much work is needed to turn a fun animation into a great story ..read more
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svglite is a great way for producing good graphics for the web but there's a small hack needed if you want to use web fonts with it ..read more

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