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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly analysis on the movements of bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD - Can Bitcoin’s Uptrend Continue?

Bitcoin is now trading at $3,577, a ~6 percent increase since last week’s update.

The leading crypto broke out of the falling wedge last Friday, pumped until hitting resistance at $3,700, and has since been consolidating around $3,550 — at the 0.382 Fibonacci level.

Despite the pump, selling pressure remains high with the price gradually moving downwards as buyers begin to lose the battle. This is shown on the chart with a series of lower highs and lower lows as every bullish candle is quickly countered by selling pressure.

If we are to see a continuation of the recent uptrend, then price really needs to stay above the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level, at which point we could expect another move up to face resistance at $3,700.

If support around the 0.5 fibonacci level is broken, which sits around $3,520, then we are likely to head lower and test support levels at the 0.618 level ($3,474). If this occurs, then selling is likely get stronger as the market realises that although last Friday’s big green candle might have lifted the fear out of the market temporarily, it hasn’t altered the overall trend.

On the way down, we could expect support at the $3,450 - $3,470 region, at $3,400, and then down at the $3,350 region.

XAU/USD - Gold Finds Strength at New Support

Gold is currently trading at $1,315 — an increase of ~0.5 percent since this time last week.

The week has been one of consolidation, with price fighting to establish a strong hold above support at the $1,306 level, before it can make a break towards strong resistance at the $1,325 level.

In the fundamentals this week, political events have continued to help boost safe haven demand for gold. After a slight dip on Wednesday, the price rebounded on Thursday as the dollar edged lower against the Euro following a weaker than expected US retail sales report. Gold was further buoyed by more uncertain developments in the political dramas of Brexit, the US-China deal and Trump’s bitter standoff with congress over the border wall with Mexico.

As of Friday morning, the price of gold is continuing to inch upwards, and we can see that the price has bounced off the the lower trend line of an ascending channel that has been forming on the daily chart over the past few weeks. This pattern would suggest that once resistance at $1,325 is out the way, the next key resistance will be $1,350.

This bullish case is weakened by strength in the dollar — as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the dollar’s movement against a basket of major currencies. If the DXY weakens, we are likely to see more upside in gold, but continued strength in the dollar could see gold retreat to support at $1,306, and then potentially at $1,295.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly analysis on the movements of bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD - bitcoin slides further, but could a reversal be round the corner?

After another week of low volatility, Bitcoin is trading at $3,365 — a decrease of 1 percent over the last seven days.

This snail-paced sell off has brought volatility to its lowest level since November 18th. At 2.3 percent over 30 days, volatility is now at the same level it was before bitcoin went cliff-diving in the later part of November.

The downtrend of the last few weeks however, has formed a promising pattern on the chart — a falling wedge — which is a bullish pattern that suggests a potential reversal.

To confirm this, a spike in volume would be needed on the breakout of the wedge, without which the pattern is likely to simply signal a continuation of the gradual sell-off.

On the RSI, a bullish divergence has appeared on the 4H chart, strengthening the argument for a potential bullish reversal.

If the wedge does prove to be a turning point, then the price could be expected to move towards a target at the top of the the wedge, which sits at around $3,800 - $4,000.

If we do move lower, and the slow sell-off from December continues, bitcoin could challenge the lows of $3,230 and ultimately test the present bear market bottom of $3,120.

XAU/USD - Is gold just taking a breather, or is this the top?

After pushing through strong resistance at $1,300, gold has ran out of steam, and has dipped back down to trade at $1,309.

On the 4 hour chart, a head and shoulders pattern can be seen, with a neckline around the $1,311 mark. Earlier in the week, this pattern was confirmed as price broke down through the neckline and hit $1,303, only to then retest $1,311 and fail to break through.

This suggests upward momentum has capped out for now, and traders are asking if gold has made a top, or if the metal is just regaining strength before pushing up again to make new highs.

As ever, much will be determined by the dollar, which has a strong inverse correlation with gold, and has been climbing higher this week on the back of better than expected jobless claims from the US, along with weaker than expected German Industrial production data weighing on the Euro and pushing the dollar up (as measured by DXY).

If the dollar continues to push up, then downside pressure on gold is likely to follow, and a move down could find support at $1,303, and then at the $1,295 to $1,300 region.

Zooming out, the broader outlook remains positive, and despite topside resistance we are still in a clear uptrend.

If the move up continues, then resistance is likely to be encountered lies at the $1,311 level of the head and shoulders neckline. From there, further resistance is to be found at the $1,325 region, which if cleared with strength is likely to push price all the way up to the $1,350 region.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD - Bitcoin Eyes Further Losses

Bitcoin is now trading at $3,397 on Bitstamp, representing a 4 percent drop since the last weekly update.

After breaking through support at $3,500 on Monday, bitcoin found support at the $3,360 region and made an unconvincing bounce to the $3,460 region before falling back down.

As mentioned in the last update, bitcoin is now on the brink of the longest bear market ever, and could also be about to pass another milestone: the most consecutive losing months, which currently stands at six.

Since August 2018, bitcoin has been locked in a downtrend, and hasn’t printed a single green monthly candle. Although February has historically been bullish for bitcoin, it now looks set to hold more downside, or at least sideways shuffling.

Away from the charts, several positive developments are underway — with both Fidelity and Nasdaq working on platforms that could help give institutions the trust needed to enter the space. However, as typical in a prolonged downturn, the good news has failed to move the market.

Looking to the future, this recent fall has made a retest of the December lows at $3,120 look more likely. If price falls through the floor at the $3,330 region, then it might find support in the $3,235 area, but otherwise looks likely to test the bear market low.

Should the price move back up, then immediate resistance could be found at the $3,480 region, the $3,620 region, and then around $3,700.

XAU/USD - Gold Hits Seven Month High

After a very bullish week, gold is trading at $1,319 — an almost 3 percent increase since last week’s update.

Technicals and fundamentals have collided to create a perfect catalyst for gold, which finally broke through the $1,300 level last Friday as the price hit the intersection of horizontal support and diagonal trendline.

Since then, the price has continued to push up on dovish news from the Fed — who on Wednesday announced that the benchmark interest rate was unchanged, and said it would be patient with future rate hikes. This weighed the dollar down while gold continued to push up.

Elsewhere, the World Gold Council published its quarterly report, revealing that in 2018, central banks bought the most gold by volume since 1967. This buying, which many suspect is due to continued global economic uncertainty, has provided continued underlying support to the metal.

With such a lengthy consolidation under $1,300, we could now expect further upside, and the yellow metal looks set to test resistance at $1,326.

If the price pulls back, then support could be found at $1,310, and potentially as far down as $1,280. A move below here however, would suggest that gold has topped.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold.

BTC/USD - How Long Can Bitcoin Keep Still?

Bitcoin is currently changing hands for $3,550, and the price continues to consolidate in a narrow range above $3,500.

In the news, a long-awaited bullish catalyst — the VanEck Bitcoin ETF — has been taken off the cards for Q12019. CBOE has pulled the application on concerns over the government shutdown.

However, the market has not reacted to this news, suggesting that bad news about the ETF was already priced in, and sellers could have become exhausted.

As the downturn continues, traders are growing impatient, and beginning to ask the question: how long can bitcoin stay like this?

The 2014 bear market persisted for 410 days (from the high of November 2013 to the bottom in January 2015) followed by 250 more days of relative stability before bitcoin finally made a convincing move to the upside in November 2015.

At present, the current bear market has raged for 406 days, meaning that if we see more downside in the next few days, we would be experiencing the longest bear market in bitcoin’s short history.

To the immediate future, a symmetrical triangle has formed on the four hour chart, and it now looks to be breaking down. Support against this downward move could be found at $3,500, and then $3,330.

If we manage to move higher, then the first price target would be at the top of the range at $3,700, which is also the yearly open. Beyond that, further resistance is lined up at the $3,800 region, and then at $4,000.

XAU/USD - Gold Pulls Back to Support at $1,280

After hesitating at the $1,300 level, gold has slipped back down to sit above key support at $1,280.

Political events, including uncertainty around Brexit and the potential for a no-deal scenario, fears over futile ongoing China-US trade talks, and concerns over the IMF’s cut in global growth forecasts, have all spurred demand for the safe haven asset.

This has created a general risk-off attitude, and US equities have slumped this week, and the dollar has continued to lose strength. This has helped support the yellow metal, which is now sitting at a critical juncture, where key horizontal support meets with a diagonal upwards trend line.

Gold is trading higher on Friday morning, raising hopes that the yellow metal could resume its recent uptrend, and break through resistance at $1,297, this would make a test of $1,300 very likely, which if broken, would set resistance at $1,310 into play.

If we move lower, then strong support could be found at $,1280, and then at $1,266.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD - Bitcoin Shuffles Sideways

After a week of consolidation, bitcoin is currently trading at $3,620.

The price made several lower highs earlier in the week, and has since coiled within a symmetrical triangle above the support level at $3,500.

Tightly bound by buyers and sellers on each side, bitcoin now finds itself poised for a breakout — either to the top of the range at $3,700, or the bottom of the range at $3,500. A break through either of these levels is likely to yield a strong continuation in the same direction.

On the bearish side, the sideways action this week has been supported by little volume, showing lack of strength and interest in the market, and suggesting that a strong catalyst is needed for a push upwards. This is supported by the RSI which is currently sinking below the bull/bear line at 50.

Away from the charts, news has been bullish, with several over-the-counter trading firms —like Genesis and Cumberland — reporting record trading volumes from institutions purchasing large amounts of crypto.

As we inch closer to the apex of this symmetrical triangle, a conclusion could be expected soon.

If we move up, then immediate resistance lies at $3,700, $3,830, and $4,000 — a clean break of which would be very bullish.

Should we fall further, then support could be found around $3,500, $3,300, and then the low of $3,120.

XAU/USD - Gold lingers under $1,300 level

At present, gold is trading at $1,288 after pulling back from the $1,295 level.

It has been an uneventful week for the yellow metal, which remains stuck in the same narrow channel, with buying and selling constrained against the $1,297 level that has now been in play since January 3rd.

Despite geopolitical turmoil in both the US and UK, with PM Theresa May surviving a no confidence vote, and the US government shutdown dragging on, gold has lacked the catalyst to push up through $1,297-$1,300 level. Instead, the metal started to fall on Thursday on news that the US is considering easing tariffs on Chinese products, boosting investors risk appetite and triggering a rally in equities. Stronger than expected US jobless claims data also boosted the dollar, creating further headwinds for gold.

Looking ahead, a move through the $1,297 resistance line at the top of the bull flag will indicate buying pressure and is likely to lead a retest of $1,300 level. Beyond that, further resistance can be found at the June 2018 highs of $1,310. This bullish picture is reinforced by a golden cross which formed earlier in the week as the 50 day moving average (orange) crossed the 200 day moving average (blue).

If the present pullback continues, then strong support can be expected at around the $1,280 level, and then $1,268.

Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice, and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold.

BTC/USD - Bitcoin Falls After Failing to Crack $4,000

After failing to conclusively crack the $4,000 level, bitcoin has fallen through support at $3,800 and is now sitting at $3,650.

The leading cryptocurrency has been trading against the $4,000 region since before Christmas, and has managed to push through on several occasions, only to be forced back down as sellers stepped in.

On Thursday morning, the price touched a long-term descending trendline dating from December 2017’s all-time-high, and then took a decisively bearish turn. The following breakdown resulted in an almost ten percent drop over the following 24 hours, with price eventually finding support at the $3,600 level.

This move down, along with continued declines in volume, has conclusively invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern mentioned in last week’s update, and has pushed the crypto “Fear and Greed” index right back into extreme fear.

At present, bitcoin is now bouncing unconvincingly off the $3,600 level, with low volume. Any bullish scenario would require a convincing move upwards from here, with bitcoin printing a classic ‘Bart’ pattern before finally breaking $4,200.

If the price moves lower, then the key level to watch is $3,200. A break through this floor would
signal that the latest bounce is over, and that ‘crypto winter’ could be set to continue. Below $3,200, the next significant support can be found at the $2,500 region, and then at the $2,000 region.

XAU/USD - Gold Prepares to Punch Through $1,300

Gold is currently trading at $1,292, showing little change from the previous week.

On the charts, the metal has been trading in an area of congestion below the $1,300 level which is proving to be a significant area of resistance.

Demand for the metal has risen this week on weakness in the greenback, which has lost strength as the political impasse over border wall funding continues, and Federal Reserve officials making dovish hints about inflation — suggesting that 2019 might hold fewer rate hikes than previously anticipated.

On this news, the dollar is hitting its lowest levels in three months (as measured by the DXY, which tracks the greenback against basket of other major currencies).

Looking ahead, gold now looks primed to once again test the $1,300 level. This is supported by the formation of an ascending triangle on the 4H chart, with a top trend line at around the $1,297 level. If this triangle breaks upwards, then further resistance could be found at $1,315 and $1,325.

Should we fail to break the $1,300 level and move lower, then strong support could be found at the $1,280 level — as shown by the long-wicked candles which have built up on the daily chart. Below that, support could be found at $1,268 and at $1,250.

Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice, and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.

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Vaultoro Blog by Joshua Scigala - 1M ago

Hi Vaultorians,

When we first built Vaultoro 5 years ago, bitcoin was the only serious crypto and the alts were a fun side note. We wanted to build the future of the commodities markets - a place where the oldest money in the world could trade with the newest. Now we see that the future of money isn’t just bitcoin, but a competing market of cryptos that have different network effects in different geographical regions. The original Vaultoro was built to handle one pair (BITCOIN and GOLD) as it was a proof of concept. We had to rebuild from scratch instead of clumsily copy and pasting logic modules.

About a year ago we started to work on building the allocated commodities market of the future. To add some of the blue-chip coins and other Metals. Six months later we received some funding by the DASH funding DAO to integrate DASH as the exclusive new coin added on VT 2.0

For security reasons, we decided to build Vaultoro 2.0 from the ground up as this would future-proof us as we build out the worlds fasted physical and digital asset exchange. The other option would have been to simply copy and past with band-aid solutions to add new pairs. The latter is hard to do safely. We wanted a system to make it easy to spin up new pairs like SILVER & PLATINUM in the future.

Why doesn't this happen overnight?

We don’t rush things, we build them carefeuly. I know the mantra in Silicon Valley is to move fast and break things, but with Cryptocurrencies things need to be done with 100% security, not 99.999%

As anyone in the tech sector will tell you, there is a massive shortage of skilled engineers. This leaves us with a smaller but very focused team than we had originally hoped for.

Where are we?

  • Backend admin (85% FINISHED)
  • Price matching engine (FINISHED)
  • Market logic (FINISHED)
  • Order book Logic (FINISHED)
  • Statements (FINISHED)
  • Market Maker (50% FINISHED)
  • The coin funding mechanism (FINISHED)
  • Hot, Warm and Cold wallet architecture. (FINISHED)
  • User data locks and encryption processes (90% FINISHED)
  • Server architecture (90% FINISHED)
  • Front-end Design for Desktop, Tablet and Mobile (FINISHED
  • Will be showing soon)
  • Front-end coding for DeskTop, Tablet and Mobile (60% FINISHED)
  • Localisation module, SPANISH, GERMAN, (ONGOING)
  • White Hat Pen Testing (NEGOTIATED AND READY TO GO)

We still have a heap of things to do but our hope is to release Vaultoro 2.0 in Q1 2019
I’m very very excited to show everyone the beautiful interface and begin the trading of DASH and Physical allocated Gold. Never having to go back to fiat again, never having to trust intransparent, fractionally reserved banks speculating with our savings again. Rather the Bitcoin and DASH community will have profits sitting in a verifiable, audited and insured physical gold bars secured in a Swiss high-security vaulting facility and ready to spend as Crypto at any time. #EXITFIAT

Wishing you all a healthy, happy and prosperous 2019

Josh

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold.

BTC/USD - Bitcoin Threatens Further Downside

Bitcoin is now trading at $3,810. The leading cryptocurrency has traded within a narrow range since Christmas, with prices locked between $3,580 and $3,980.

In a fitting end to a bearish year, bitcoin suffered a total 13 percent drop during the month of December, marking one of the most prolonged periods of falling prices in its short history.

In the optimistic mood of the new year, some hopeful traders are now pointing to an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed on the daily chart over the past six weeks, suggesting a reversal could be imminent. This pattern would have a neckline around $3,950, and a target of around $5,500.

However, as this pattern has been forming on the chart, trading volumes have fallen - failing to confirm the pattern with a significant increase on the rise of the right shoulder. This paints a bearish picture, suggesting that bitcoin could be in for more downside in the coming weeks.

A look at the hourly chart presents more evidence supporting this bearish thesis, with volume on pullbacks hitting higher levels than any upward moves.

If bulls do manage to gain the upper hand, then immediate resistance can be found at the top of channel at £3,900 - $4,000, at $4,200, and then at $4,600.

For the bearish trend to resume, a clean break of the bottom of the range at $3,630 would be needed, and buyers could be expected to step in at $3,500, the previous low of $3,120, and the psychological level of $3,000.

XAU/USD - Gold Soars to Six Month High

Unlike bitcoin, gold has started the new year with a bang — pushing up ~1.2 percent in 2019 so far.

This spurt upwards is a continuation of the rally catalysed in early October by a sharp drop in global equities. As market sentiment has soured, uneasy investors have lost their appetite for high risk assets, and fled into safe havens like the Japanese Yen, US government bonds, and gold and silver.

In the past week, market confidence has taken another hit — with Apple cutting sales forecasts on concerns over China’s weak economy, and uncertainty around the partial shutdown of the US government. This has been detrimental to the dollar, which is now teetering below the 97 mark (as measured by DXY), but a boon for gold — which has pushed up to its highest level since June 2018.

Looking ahead, gold is now approaching the key psychological price of $1,300. A clean break through this level would restore even more confidence in the metal, and could cause the price to push up through supply zones at $1,325, $1,350 and $1,375 to touch $1,400 — a level not seen since 2013.

Though upwards momentum is strong, the price on the hourly chart has hit the top of an ascending channel and is now pulling back. This movement could find support at the bottom of the channel around $1,288, or further down at $1,280.

Although a bounce would be suspected at these levels, much depends on today’s release of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll data, which could set the tone for gold and the greenback over the next few days.

*Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice, and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update! As the festive season gets into gear, markets around the world have been volatile, and both bitcoin and gold have made significant moves.

BTC/USD - Is This Just a Relief Rally?

Bitcoin has enjoyed a bullish week and is now trading at $4,209 — an almost 25 percent gain since the last update.

Despite the passing of one of the most significant economic events of the year — another US rate hike — bitcoin barely flinched, and instead rallied up to the $4,000 region.

This strong push up has left traders wondering if the downtrend of the last few weeks was capitulation, or if this move up is just a dead-cat bounce before the carnage resumes.

On the daily chart, we can now see a V-shaped formation suggesting a capitulation bottom, with buyers coming in more aggressively than the sellers did over the last week and creating long green candles pushing upwards. This idea is supported by trading volume, which has picked up over the past few weeks.

After such a promising push up, a fall back now could be fatal — bringing the reality of a dead cat bounce home to traders, and sending bitcoin down to meet new 2018 lows.

Peter Brandt — the veteran commodities trader — has suggested that a $1,200 low could be in store for bitcoin if the crypto drops below $3,000 before 2019.

Such a level seems unlikely given the current bullish sentiment, but if we did move lower, then support could be found around $4,000, $3,900, and $3,630. At each stage higher volume could be expected as buyers step in to acquire long-term positions.

At present, bitcoin seems to be holding the $4,000 level with strength — and despite brief departures down to the $3,800 level, each dip is met with keen buyers, creating long wicks on the candles as the price is pushed back up.

If the bullish sentiment continues, need to get through 4200, 4600, 5600, and ultimately the key bull/bear line is at the previous strong support at $6,00 — a region that is now likely to act as similarly strong resistance.

XAU/USD - Gold Pushes up as Stocks Sink

Gold is now trading at $1,258, representing a ~1.6 percent gain since last week’s update.

The week started on a positive note, with gold pushing up against resistance at $1,250. The on Wednesday the yellow metal blasted through this level as the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate, and lowered projections for future hikes next year,

This sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing stocks and the dollar down, but catalysing a rally in gold, which hit highs of $1,266 before pushing back down as the dollar recovered.

Looking ahead, the future looks bright for gold — The trend is up and momentum is building, but much will depend on the movements of the dollar.

If the price manages to surpass the highs set at $1,266, then further upside could be in play —- with initial targets set at around the $1,282 level.

Should more downside comes into play, then we could expect gold prices to find support at around the $1,252 level, then $1,220.

Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice, and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.

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Welcome Vaultorians, to another weekly update on the movements of bitcoin and gold!

BTC/USD - Bitcoin Consolidates Below $3,500

After a week of consolidation under resistance at $3,500, bitcoin is now trading at $3,250 — representing a 4% drop since the last update.

Despite a few short-term pumps, the market is still driven by negative sentiment — with the “fear and greed index” ramped right round to the “extreme fear” end of the spectrum. This is the complete opposite to the euphoria of this time last year, when bitcoin was soaring to fresh highs.

Despite the downside momentum, certain community figureheads remain steadfast in their support: ex hedge-fund manager Mike Novogratz is confident that bitcoin will make a comeback, warning on Bloomberg earlier in the week that "revolutions don’t happen overnight," and comparing the downturn to a “methadone clinic” designed to help bitcoin sober up from the excess of 2017.

Looking ahead, the dominant pattern on the chart is still the six month long descending triangle — a bearish continuation pattern which according to classical charting principles would breakdown to a target around $2,000.

At present, the bulls are sitting on support at $3,250, but are failing to hold on to the $3,500 level, which now looks out of reach. This bearish outlook was reinforced by a bearish daily candle on Thursday, which managed to close just above $3,250.

If this level is broken, then buying could be expected at the $3,000 region, which might be psychologically significant, and then the $2800 level.

To see any significant upside, the bulls would have to blast past resistance at $3,500, ideally to break the $3,633 level. This bullish outlook is supported by the daily RSI, which shows building upside momentum.

XAU/USD - Gold Rally Fails at Major Resistance

Gold has continued to edge up this week, and is now trading at $1,239 after failing to break through resistance at $1,250.

US economy is showing signs of weakness, and Federal Reserve officials are suggesting a less hawkish tone for 2019, with fed not expected to raise interest rates more than once in 2019.

Economic forecasts from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows reduced growth expectations - predicting an increase of 2.4% in Q4 2018 versus 2.7% on December 6.

Economic slowdown could be bullish for bullion, but at present the dollar is pushing up, dashing gold’s dreams of capturing the $1,250 region.

If the dollar softens, then gold might have a achance of rallying back up — building on economic uncertainty, and the atmosphere of global fear from Brexit, and trade talks with China.

If bulls return to the yellow metal, then immediate resistance lies at $1,250, and if we can push past the 200 Day Moving Average (shown in orange) and past horizontal resistance at $1,266 then we have a good chance of reaching $1,293.

To the downside, strong support lies at the 100 Day Moving Average (shown in blue), which coincides with a a trendline off the August low.

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