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(Excerpt)

The first fully autonomous vehicles to be able to travel on public roads will not be ready until 2030, according to Continental's head of self-driving division Andree Hohm, according to an Automotive News Europe (ANE) interview. Some of the early forecasts for the adoption of complete autonomous driving technology have been proven to be overly optimistic. One of the reasons for this is the concern over the level of technology required to stop a vehicle safely at high speeds in the event of a malfunction. Hohm said, ""People always ask me when driverless vehicles will be on the road' and I tell them the answer is 'today.' If you have a very specific application area, for example like a private road, and want to travel at low velocity, you can buy such a vehicle."

Significance: Continental's Hohm is convinced that the early applications of fully autonomous (Level 5) driving technology will be reserved for low-speed applications such as robotaxis in urban settings. While urban environments may prevent more complex demands on autonomous driving sensor arrays and computing power, they also offer the advantage of providing more opportunities for a fix to be implemented quickly in the event of a system failure or sensor errors. Hohm also added that autonomous driving has three hurdles to overcome before it becomes viable for widespread use: technology, regulatory approval, and consumer acceptance.

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Watch Mark Boyadjis, Global Technology Lead for Automotive Advisory Services, discuss the current trends around ride-hailing and the future of mobility services.

In this video interview, Mark answers questions like:

  • How does ride-hailing influence the consumer vehicle market? And how will the shift materialize?
  • How will automotive user experience change and why is it so important to the industry?
  • What are the potential use cases for future mobility services?

For more insights on how to stay ahead of the mobility curve and to learn more about our mobility solutions, visit us at ihsmarkit.com/mobilityinsight.

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(Excerpt)

The UK's Department for Transport (DfT) has announced that it has begun a consultation on making all new-build housing projects install electric vehicle (EV) charging points. According to a statement, it comes as part of a wider government consultation on changing building regulations in the country. At the same time, the government has also said that it is pushing for all newly installed rapid and higher powered EV charge points allowing payment to be made by debit or credit card by the end of the first half of 2020.

Significance: Demand for EVs is continuing to grow, supported by current government incentives and the growing number of products on the market. In terms of market share such vehicles remain at an exceptionally low level though , especially when taking in to account the government's target of ending the sale of gasoline (petrol) and diesel passenger cars by 2040, if not before. The government is looking at a range of other ways of easing the transition to this new powertrain type. While it is pushing for the expansion of the EV charging infrastructure in the country, with standard card payments reducing some of the need to join various charging company schemes to avoid being stuck, many drivers will end up charging most of the time at homes. Having seen the retrofit of around 100,000 domestic charging points through grant-support schemes to homes, the mandating of points in new dwellings could open the door to homeowners who had never considered an EV before. At the same time, these are also likely to be smart chargers that will help reduce the pressure on the grid through returning some electricity at peak times .

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(Excerpt)

The Ohio state authorities (United States) have opened a 540-acre autonomous vehicle (AV) testing centre, SMARTCenter, reports the Dayton Daily News. The facility includes a 1.2-mile, six-lane intersection to simulate real-world scenarios, allowing companies to test their AVs and equipment before deploying them on the public roads.

Significance: Ohio state is increasingly exploring the application of autonomous driving technology by participating in various projects. One of these projects is DriveOhio, an AV pilot programme created by Ohio governor John Richard Kasich Jr, and agreements have been signed with cities in the state including Dublin, Columbus, Athens, and Marysville. In addition, other cities in the state have expressed an interest in participating in the programme. The programme serves as a platform for researchers, developers, and manufacturers, and links private industries with the cities that are interested in serving as test sites for testing and collaborating on self-driving vehicle technologies.

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(Excerpt)

The future of automotive is electric and autonomous. While almost all automakers have set up a roadmap to fully embrace electric vehicles (EV), many of them are now also channeling a good chunk of their investments towards developing autonomous driving technologies. Although real-world application of electrically powered autonomous vehicles is still at a nascent stage, such cars will raise the need for quite a few complementary technologies to support their smooth operations. One such technology is a wireless charging system, also called inductive charging.

Improving prospects

Though the segment is not evolving as fast as the plug-in charging ecosystem, it has seen some major developments lately. Earlier this year, wireless charging technology start-up WiTricity acquired Qualcomm's wireless technology platform 'Halo'. The deal will provide WiTricity with access to over 1,500 patents and patent applications related to wireless charging. The acquisition will boost WiTricity's system development capabilities, given that the company now owns the two most widely accepted configurations for EV wireless charging, the circular coil design, used by itself, and the 'Double D' setup, patented and used by Qualcomm Halo. Both designs are used by automakers to charge vehicles. While Qualcomm Halo is used by automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, WiTricity has partnered with OEMs such as Nissan and Hyundai. Last year, BMW's 530e iPerformance plug-in hybrid became the first model with a wireless charging system, based on WiTricity technology, to be commercially available.

Several other tier-1 developers have also acquired licenses for the two technologies. Preh and Lumen have access to licenses for Qualcomm Halo's Double D technology, whereas WiTricity has given licenses to companies such as Mahle, Furakawa Electric, Zhejiang VIE Science & Technology, South Korea-based supplier Yura, and China-based Anjie Wireless. The increasing number of license agreements with the tier 1s is a positive indication towards the industry's growing confidence in the technology and its prospects.

Despite the acquisition, WiTricity has said that it would continue to support and advance the 'Double D' technology and "Qualcomm licensees will have the same rights as before, access to the same technology as before". According to David Schatz, part of WiTricity's Global Automotive Business Development team, what technology WiTricity pursues will depend on OEMs and their preferences. "There is no religious devotion to our circular coil technology. Some OEMs may offer both coil technologies driven by technical specification and package restrictions. Car makers may also want proprietary systems and could be more concerned with schedule and costs," Schatz told IHS Markit.

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The above article is from SupplierInsight by IHS Markit. SupplierInsight provides a wealth of original thought leadership, data, and analysis on a broad spectrum of automotive industry topics and sectors. Content includes news and analysis, topical reports, supplier profiles, and an automaker-supplier relations database across 13 domains. Visit SupplierInsight to view all our offerings.

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[Excerpt - vehicle model details available with full subscription]

New vehicle sales in Vietnam surged 18.6% y/y in June to 27,520 units, according to data released by the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers' Association (VAMA). This figure includes locally produced passenger vehicles, CVs, and SPVs from 20 VAMA members, as well as completely built-up (CBU) imports, but excludes bus chassis units. SPVs are either passenger vehicles or CVs already fitted out for their purpose; therefore their volumes are amalgamated into the total vehicle market. Passenger vehicle sales in the country during June jumped 31.5% y/y to 20,287 units and CV sales decreased 9.0% y/y to 6,649 units. Sales of SPVs fell by 23.5% y/y to 584 units during the month.

Meanwhile, sales of locally built vehicles increased by 22.2% y/y to 26,207 units in June, with passenger vehicle sales at 19,725 units (up 33.3% y/y) and CV sales remaining flat at 6,270 units. Within the CV category, sales in the truck segment increased 2.2% y/y to 5,426 units, while sales of buses went down by 12.3% y/y to 844 units. Sales of SPVs slumped 44.9% y/y to 212 units.

During the first half of 2019, sales of locally produced vehicles in the country were up 18.4% y/y at 145,811 units, with passenger vehicle sales up 32.8% y/y at 109,423 units and CV sales down 5.9% y/y at 34,581 units. Within the CV category, sales in the truck segment declined 2.8% y/y to 30,131 units, while sales of buses were down 22.5% y/y at 4,450 units. SPV sales in the period plunged 54.7% y/y to 1,807 units. Total industry sales during the January-June period were up 21.3% y/y at 154,273 units. Total passenger vehicle sales during the period grew 34.6% y/y to 113,155 units, while CV sales stood at 38,071 units (down 1.5% y/y) and SPV sales fell by 32.1% y/y to 3,047 units.

Outlook and implications

The surge in new vehicle sales in Vietnam during the first half of 2019 can be attributed to strong growth in passenger vehicle sales thanks to the reduction in SCT and a low base of comparison. However, sluggish demand for CVs and SPVs did weigh down on the first-half results somewhat. Beginning in 2018, the Vietnamese government reduced SCT on vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 litres or less by 5%. The government also reduced import tariffs on automotive components from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region to 0%. Therefore, the average tax on automotive components is now about 5%, down from 15% last year, resulting in lower production costs and hence vehicle prices.

IHS Markit expects light-vehicle sales in the country, including passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles, to be driven in 2019 by the reduction in the SCT, new model launches, the expansion of the dealership network in the country, and an improvement in the economy. Industrial production will continue to play an integral role in driving Vietnam's economy. Given the country's large labour force, relatively low wages, and favourable geographical location, we project a healthy pipeline of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the near to medium term. We anticipate that Vietnamese real GDP growth will average 6.7% during the next few years. We expect the Vietnamese light-vehicle market to grow by around 12.7% y/y to 286,281 units in 2019.

Sedans will remain the most popular body type in the country in 2019. They are popular among Vietnamese consumers as they are perceived as conferring a higher social status. However, this segment is expected to witness only moderate growth of 1.7% y/y to 93,492 units this year, giving it a market share of 32.7%, mainly due to the growing popularity of sport utility vehicles (SUVs). Automakers plan to bring out new SUVs in Vietnam in a bid to tap into this growing opportunity. Our data show that around 11 new or refreshed SUVs will be launched in Vietnam in 2019. Hatchbacks will follow as the third-largest category in 2019 with a market share of 14.4% and sales of 41,327 units, up 22.1% y/y.

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(Excerpt)

The Brazilian and German governments have launched a report, 'Technological roadmap for light electric vehicles in Brazil'. The report acts as a roadmap to evaluate the future of the development of light electric vehicles (EVs) in Brazil, according to media reports. The study has been carried out by Promob-e, a technical co-operation project. Promob-e aims to assist the Brazilian government to formulate public policies to help the adoption of more efficient propulsion systems. To gauge the possibilities of Brazilian participation in the production of components of light EVs, the report identifies the barriers and opportunities for technology that Brazil will face in the future at 5, 10, and 15 years.

Significance: Brazil's upper house is also considering banning the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from 2060. Brazil has been at the forefront of developing norms in order to get more EVs on the road than ICE vehicles. In June 2019, the Brazilian government announced a decision to exempt hybrid and electric vehicles from the Imposto Sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) tax, which is applied to industrial products that are produced in Brazil or imported.

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(Excerpt)

A coalition of 11 companies has published a 'white paper' called 'Safety First For Automated Driving' to act as a framework for the development, testing, and validation of safe autonomous vehicles (AVs). Aptiv, Audi, Baidu, BMW, Continental, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Here Technologies, Infineon, and Volkswagen were involved in drafting the document, which comprises 146 pages. The framework document establishes 12 guiding principles on how to build, test, and operate a safe AV.

Significance: The member companies claim the coalition is the "broadest representation across the industry to date". It is imperative for companies to release such guidelines to help the industry to deploy safe self-driving vehicles. This need comes as an increasing number of start-ups are commercialising self-driving vehicles and IHS Markit forecasts that, in 2021, about 51,000 vehicles sold globally will be AVs. There are many companies which have released their AV safety reports, including Waymo, Ford, General Motors, NVIDIA, Apple, and startups Zoox and Nuro.

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(Excerpt)

Registrations in the Swedish light-vehicle market have slumped during June on the high base of comparison with June 2018. According to data published by trade association BIL Sweden, demand fell by 52% year on year (y/y) to 31,830 units. Overall, the Swedish passenger car market is now down by 25.6% y/y to 167,882 units in the year to date (YTD). Registrations of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of less than 3.5 tonnes collapsed 73% y/y to 4,530 units in June, leading to a decline in the first half of 2019 of 44% y/y to 22,960 units. However, sales of heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) with a GVW of more than 16 tonnes more than doubled in the month from 524 units to 1,169 units in June, helping it further into positive growth territory in the YTD with a gain of 31.9% y/y to 4,045 units.

Significance: The significant downturn in the passenger car and LCV categories in Sweden this month is a result of the surge during June 2018 as customers sought to avoid the impact of a new CO2-based bonus-malus scheme. This benefits very low emission vehicles, but heavily affects those traditional vehicles that lack a degree of electrification. The overhang of this pull-forward has been hitting the market for the past 12 months, compounded by the shift from NEDC to WLTP which saw incentives on old stock and an impact on the supply of compliant new vehicles from some OEMs. However, given the exceptionally low base of comparison in the coming months, it is likely that we will see some strong gains. After this rough first half of the year, BIL Sweden has said that it expects that 335,000 passenger cars will be sold in 2019, which will make it the sixth best year ever. IHS Markit broadly agrees with this expectation, forecasting registrations of 336,000 units during the year, a decline of 5% y/y, and further declines to come in the coming few years. We also anticipate that LCVs with a gross vehicle weight of up to 6-tonnes will fall to around 49,800 units, a decline of 12.6% y/y.

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