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This is a pretty tough 3-gamer today with plenty of stars and not many scrubs, but if you get it right it will really take you to the pointy end.
All three games look like absolute points-fests which brings into play the mid-stack for sure.
But there are not too many cheap defenders nor forwards who you can go to with confidence which means either your guns have to go absolutely nuts, or coaches will be forced to pay slightly more for what are still risky defensive/forward plays in order to feel better about team balance.
If you have 1-2 absolute bargain priced players who you like, this slate gets real easy real quick with genuine 140+ players across every game, but I don’t have any of those today so this side will be a much more balanced approach.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for CONTEST
Esava Ratugolea ($7,410): Traditionally the second fixture between these two sides has been a real low-scoring tackle fest but its a sunny Sunday arvo at the G, I just don’t see how it’s not a fantasy points bonanza. Esava will be 40% today but there is easily a value game here so eating chalk and moving on.
Gryan Miers ($10,010): Like this kid to bob up for one of his 15 disposal, 2-3 goal games at low ownership. With GAJ a little injured it could be players like Miers who come up the ground on the lead then push hard back for the cream.
Marcus Bontempelli ($13,850): POD gun, if there is such a thing. Dunkley, Macrae, Kelly, Danger – these guns will all be popular so not many teams will start or even get to this second tier of star mids. Bont has a 30+, 2-3 goal gamer here against the Saints.
Liam Shiels ($13,440): Playing game 200 on the MCG on a sunny Sunday arv – yes please. Will NOT go missing in this one. No one ever picks Shiels either. Expect a 9-10x value game for the milestone man at great ownership. Junk up baby!
Jaeger O’Meara ($13,910): Taking his partner in crime as well, Geelong won’t tag unless Scott Selwood comes into the side, so I feel JOM is safe for a 110+ game on the back of 30+ and double figure tackle count.
James Parsons ($7,560): Pay down forward defensive selection. Parsons is playing for his spot, it’s a big game, he will need to find the footy to play next week with Parfitt and Selwood around selection. Like him for a value 60+ and he can bob up for a few goals too if the game breaks open.
Grant Birchall ($9,170): A solid 80+ first up last week can be repeated here. They like it in his hands, and I expect the Hawthorn backline to use him wherever possible. Will take anything over 70 at this price point.
Jordan Clark ($10,260): Ditto young Clark. Anything over 70 is a good return given the uncertainty over his role week-to-week. if he gets midfield minutes today, he could even cover this price tag. Will be low owned.
Rowan Marshall ($14,350): First man picked and my only must-pick of the day. Anyone rucking against English goes straight in but when its a mobile big man like Marshall who can get a look at a few goals and 15+ disposals, he just has to be selected. Esava will draw a lot of ownership away from Marshall today too, and possibly also Hickey. Could see <20% which is nuts for the spot he is in.
The big dfs dollars and the big dfs contests continue into R18 with another big six figure sum up for grabs in Adelaide.
This game is both easy and tricky. Plenty of positions seem like value or prime, set-and-forget selections but that is all dependant on which Adelaide Crows side actually fronts up. Which Bombers side for that matter as well.
Traditionally sides who play (flog) the Gold Coast the week prior don’t turn up at their competitive best the next week, but the Crows were so bad against Port two weeks ago that I just can’t fathom a realm where they don’t come out and give everything they have for four quarters here.
So needless to say, now I’ve talked myself into the Crows fronting up, we’ll be heavy on Adelaide players here.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for the Crows v Bombers $100,000+ contest.
Shaun McKernan ($10,070):Anytime one starts a team with S McKernan one needs their head examined, but in this spot solo rucking against his former side, I am giving him one final chance to not stink it up and I think he can deliver. I expect him to be flogged at the taps but his follow up work needs to be supreme tonight and he will know that. 30pt tackle floor, 20 hitouts – that’s a solid base before he touches the footy.
Hugh Greenwood ($11,840):Greenwood’s move into the midfield for the Crows has been hit and miss for coaches trying to get him on one of his 10+ tackle, 20+ disposal days. I think this could be one of those days though but if playing multiple sides, Greenwood would be one of the first guys out of this team. If you have the mulah for Lynch you’ll get him at sub 10% I expect.
Rory Atkins ($12,500): The Crows have been called slow and they are. Atkins is one of their only out and out runners and at home he almost always delivers three figures or near enough to. Safe selection capable of paying off price tag.
Brad Crouch ($15,450):With a lot of teams going for ROB tonight I don’t think there will be too many paying up for Brad Crouch when his brother, Merrett and Sloane are all cheaper, so were are taking him as a POD play hoping for sub 15-20% ownership.
Paul Seedsman ($9,720): See Atkins only less reliable but a lot cheaper. He is playing for his spot in this side tonight. Must be everywhere.
Will Snelling ($5,000): I’ll personally be under the field on Snelling given my expectation he will be 70%+ owned and his likeliness to play in the forward line instead of onball where he has been murdering the SANFL / VFL. Smart, safe(ish) selection but brave fade and if you like your balance without him it could be the play.
Rory Laird ($13,860):Laird is due a big 120+ and again we have picked him as a POD here given Milera’s form and new midfield role as well as the plethora of value in the Bombers backline sans Hurley. He makes zero sense to play if you look at stats, pure gut feel play here.
Martin Gleeson ($7,060): No Hurely means another 20+ disposals to be shared in the backline and the guy who wa the one who stepped up in Hurley’s absense was Gleeson. He has played 3 games now and a last-start 80+ shows he can easily pay this price tag off. Should be super chalky. Should.
Reilly O’Brien ($14,320): A must-play in my opinion. A walk-up 40+ hitouts, half a dozen tackles and 20 disposals will see him clear 120pts here.
While the results over the weekend were not necessarily unpredictable, the narrative they followed resembled a legendary fable.
The Djokovic/Federer Wimbledon Final delivered a match up
labelled as the greatest final ever. And it is easy to see why after Novak
Djokovic prevailed after a four hour, 57-minute display of power and finesse
from two of the best players ever.
Earlier in the week, Simona Halep became the first Romanian
woman to win Wimbledon after overcoming Serena Williams in straight sets.
On the same night and in the same city as the Djokovic victory,
the cricket World Cup final was being fought out. England were declared winners
in one of the most jaw-dropping results of any sport in recent memory after
scores were tied after 50 overs, then tied again after a super over. New
Zealand were left heart-broken after the winner was decided by who hit the most
boundaries during their innings… So, technically England still have not
actually won a World Cup.
"England have won the World Cup by the barest of all margins. Absolute ecstasy for England, agony for New Zealand!"
The final moments of #CWC19 haven't quite sunk in yet
The AFL produced another tight and unpredictable round with
four games decided by less than 10 points and Collingwood, Richmond, Brisbane
and Carlton producing rousing upsets. Though Gold Coast reaffirmed their
standing as the worst team in the league with a second consecutive loss of 90+.
As a result, they are well and truly anchored to the bottom, while Geelong
bounced back from last week to stay on top.
Again, in the NRL, the Storm restated their absolute
dominance, and won in a fitting tribute for 400 game club legend, Cam Smith.
And the Roosters dropped another game and now sit fourth on the ladder, behind
the Storm, Rabbitohs and Raiders.
Friday night and Collingwood are proving to be a real winner
for the fans. For the second week in a row they were involved in a match
decided by less than a goal. The Pies stormed home to overcome the Eagles by a
solitary point and Brody Mihocek was the instigator. His 19 disposals and four
goals won his team the game and accumulated 120 DS points.
The Blues are storming home now and sit only nine games from
top spot! On the other hand, the Swans did major damage to their finals chances
with the unforeseen loss. Nic Newman had his best game in Blue against his old
side. Running loose he racked up 32 touches, took 13 marks and scored 129 DS
The wheels have completely fallen off at Fremantle. The loss
to the Hawks at the weekend was their fourth consecutive and their finals hopes
look dashed. As always though, Nat Fyfe was resolute. He was a one-man team for
points of the game and did his best to keep his side in the game with 24
touches, three goals and 128 DS points.
One of the best games of the season was played out between
the Bombers and North. With plenty on the line, neither side took a backward
step at any stage. An undulating score line saw both sides dominant in parts
but Anthony McDonald-Tipingwuti playin’ footy got Essendon over the line in the
last breath of the game. He kicked four majors and had 99 DS points while Ben
Brown was dominant at the other end with six of his own and 134 DS points.
The less said about the Suns the better. Where are they
headed? Tasmania? They were completely hapless in their 95-point loss to the
Crows. Eddie Betts, again, silenced his doubters with six majors and 120 DS
points while Rory Atkins ran riot with 35 touches and 123 DS points. Six
Adelaide players scored over 100.
Patrick Dangerfield was clearly the best player on the
ground with 32 touches, seven tackles and a goal for 123 DS points. But the
Saints were the side to look to for DS value and scoring with six players
chalking up triple figures including the increasingly impressive Rowan Marshall
with a team topping 122.
Richmond are into fifth spot on the ladder after
leapfrogging a flailing GWS. And losing Stephen Coniglio for the rest of the
regular season looms as ominous. Shai Bolton was rewarded with a rising star
nomination for his sustained hot form and 29 disposal, 115 DS point
performance. For the Giants, Toby Greene returned to the midfield in Coniglio’s
absence with aplomb. He returned 34 disposals, two goals and 144 DS points.
The Doggies continued their hot form with a grind-it-out
victory over Melbourne. They sit one game out of the finals but could have
fallen victim to a wonded Demons side if it was not for the incredible Josh
Dunkley. His season has been impressive to say the least but he climbed into superstar
territory with 39 touches, 15 tackles, two goals and 189 DS points on Sunday
Complete list of players to have had 35+ disposals, 20+ con poss, 15+ tackles & 2+ goals in a game
The final game of the round saw the Lions stake themselves
as a legitimate premiership threat. With a favourable run for the remainder of
the season, a double chance seems almost guaranteed. The Lions are the real
deal and have winners on every line, Jarryd Lyons has been immense this year as
a top up player but starred on Sunday with 36 touches and 140 DS points.
CRICKET WORLD CUP
Before getting into the final, let us cast our eyes back to
the semi-finals. New Zealand were never expected to beat India but they
dominated them in the end.
And it was amazing bowling performances from Matt Henry,
Mitch Santner and Trent Boult that got them over the line. India were 3/5 after
three overs after Henry ran through Rahul and Rohit and then Boult claimed the
huge scalp of Virat Kohli.
Kane Williamson 67 (95) and Ross Taylor 74 (90) gave their
bowling attack something to defend.
The other match left the whole of Australia disappointed and
looking across the pond for success. The top order failed for basically the
first time all tournament and, while Steve Smith 85 (119) and Alex Carey 46
(70) did their best to post a defendable total, 223 was never going to be
Chris Woakes was the standout bowler for England with 3/20
while Jason Roy dominated the Aussie attack, plundering 85 from 65.
The final lived up to any possible billing as it came to be
decided to just a matter of inches. Martin Guptill returned for a second run to
take the New Zealand super over to 15 but feel agonisingly short as England ran
Ben Stokes was the man of the match for his (kind of) match
winning 84 from 98. If not for his 110 run partnership with Jos Buttler, the
Kiwis would have won the match in a canter. Equally impressive with the ball
was Chris Woakes who backed up his performance in the semi, taking 3/37.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for Sunday’s $50k contest
Josh Dunkley ($16,310): Absolute gun and will be tricky for coaches to fit in in this slate so having him will hopefully be a double advantage when he tears the Dees apart. That marvel game will be fast and free-flowing and the Dogs are a side we have really targeted today. Little extra effort from Dunkley Snr here given little brother is in the opposition.
Ed Richards ($7,670): Cheapy who can hit 80pts. Not overthinking it, Richards impressed me three starts back against the Pies and i think he can repeat that role/score here.
Stephen Coniglio ($15,960): No Kelly, no Hately – Coniglio will be asked for a supreme midfield two-way effort today and if he doesn’t get hurt, he will smash past 130. Expecting a 30/10/10 day from the Giants onballer.
Harry Perryman ($10,570): Even though Whitfield is back i think the out’s still allow for a Perryman bump. Expect him to see some more onball minutes and just generally be used more often. Can nudge 100pts at a great price.
Toby McLean ($10,470): He has not been playing as much midfield as i’d like but he has been in there a bit lately and I just think the price tag is too appealing for a guy who can really shift into beast mode. Really safe 75-80pt floor.
Patrick Lipinski ($11,810): Forget last two starts and assess on form 3 and 4 games ago when he was clearing 30 disposals. This kid is a Beveridge favourite and the Dees are just the team to help him return to those three-figure fantasy scores.
Taylor Duryea ($8,550): Gone cheap in defence but not as nasty as it might first seem. Hoping for a pair of 70’s from our two pay-downs, starting with Duryea who is averaging 72pts from his last three starts at Marvel. No Caleb Daniel still, you’d think Duryea can get amongst the points here at return a game close enough to value.
Derek the Egg Man ($7,210): I’m not spelling his surname, i’m sorry im just too lazy. Eggsy impressed off half back first up and he can repeat that against a tougher opponent here. Bigger ground, more opportunity. Hopefully the price bump scares a few away.
Dawson Simpson ($10,960): Gawn should murder English here but with the two ruckmen in the side i’m just not sure how long he will spend resting forward so we’re paying down for big Simpson who has 6cm on Soldo and should ruck most of the day. 44 hitouts last start can be repeated, as can the 4 tackles so a floor or 60pts before he disposes of the footy or takes a mark looks pretty safe to me. Expecting an 80+.
Absolute corker of a contest to start Round 17 with $100k up for grabs in this GF rematch between the Eagles and Maggies.
This team is a very strange one – we are smashing defence and ruck hard and hoping to hold the line in our midfield and forward line. It is a really unique build and not one i’d entertain in a cash game, but sometimes in these big GPP’s you need to think abit outside the box to really push for that big money.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for the $100k Eagles v Magpies contest.
Will Hoskin-Elliot ($10,500): Had had a good month of footy and is seeing plenty of it since Stephensen’s departure. Will relish the wide expanses of Optus. Lock him in for and 85+ tonight.
Willie Rioli ($8,030): Sneaky POD play, with Cameron and Kennedy likely to be lurking close to goal, Rioli could get up the ground here and have a big night out. Think he is a big chance to smash value at likely very low ownership.
Jack Redden ($13,820): Wanted a better primo mid but didnt have the cash given the money spent in defence. Hopefully Redden will be able to clear 100pts here for us. Nailing Redden ceiling games is very tough but this does seem like a good set of circumstances for him to score well.
Levi Greenwood ($9,410): Will be less than 5% owned tonight which appeals to me. Greenwood has been sneakily consistent this season with 4 games over 80 and 3 over 70, that is not that bad at this price tag. If he can get us an 85 at under 10k, and our defenders dominate, then we are laughing.
Chris Masten ($8,710): See Greenwood theory. Masten’s price tag is very appealing for a guy coming off a 90pt game and who averaged 70+ at Optus this season.
John Noble ($5,000): Mature body, ready to play and is likely to slot straight in at half back. Averaging 20+ in VFL and the way the coach has been praising him all week, you’d think he will get plenty of game time tonight. Lock for 10x value game.
Jack Crisp ($14,290): Ok here is where our team wins or loses. We need a 30 disposal game out of both Crisp and Hurn and this is doable i think tonight. Very few teams will outlay 28k for this backline so we need it to hit home. 120+ is the minimum we want.
Shannon Hurn ($13,770): Hasn’t had a big month or so but his ceiling game, at home, is over 120+ and we need that from him tonight. Expect him to be in everything
Brodie Grundy ($16,010): Picking Grundy will be probably a popular selection given the value out there tonight but picking him with the backline we have will be very rare indeed. Nic Nat should have him in the taps but Grundy will find it around the ground, he simply must play well here for the Pies to have a chance. Here’s hoping we get 400+ out of our big 3!
Fifty grand up for grabs in a cracking three-game Sunday slate full of value starting with a big man that’s not even listed as playing!
If Max Gawn runs out onto the MCG against Carlton ill eat my hat. That brings Brayden Preuss into calculations as the big man didnt play for Casey yesterday in the VFL.
The Carlton game looks a cracking spot to target given no Gawn, no Cripps and the big ground but forecast rain quite literally puts a bit of a dampner on it – being the first game though it should be easy enough to see what the radar is doing.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for today’s $50k Sunday contest.
Prayden Preuss ($9,880): Must have, simple as that. Will solo ruck and should give the ton a good nudge. His dual position status makes him very hard to fade, likely to be the highest owned player on the slate.
Ben Long ($7,250): Cheapy POD in the forward line with Long looking like he has rounded into some form. One of those players who is capable of a 40pt qtr but can go missing for big stretches, i think he puts together a value game here though.
Jed Anderson ($12,570): Tackle count is jumping up, disposals are jumping up, Anderson is just on the rise across the stat board. Looked like bobbe bouche two weeks ago tackling Giants midfielders, love him and the price is right.
Angus Brayshaw ($13,980): Big risk but has big upside if the rain stays away. Dees should murder the blues midfield so I want to have some exposure to that.
Sam Walsh ($13,990): Rain, hail or shine im taking Walsh today. was on track for a 140+ before being moved to half forward late last week. 30 disposals, 8 tackles and 4 marks in the wet. Kid is just an absolute gun. Will be very chalky though.
Kyle Dunkley ($5,000): If he is half as good as his brother he will still smash value. Likely very highly-owned but Im not bothered, soo hard to fade.
Zac Williams ($12,350): I’ll look at Williams in any game where Whitfield is still out as he tends to be a lot more dominant when the Giants are missing one of their runners. Two solid three-figure scores last two starts show me the form is good. Injury always a concern as he will leave the field with windburn, but if he stays out there he will go very close to value.
Josh Battle ($10,870): Has been going great for the Saints particularly last two weeks peeling off 99pt and 106pt games down back. Price is still low enough that if he fails slightly with say an 80, he doesn’t kill your team.
Roawn Marshall ($14,070): I suspect that, once Gawn is announced out, Marshall ownership will plummet with people jumping on Preuss. Yes he is 14k, but his form puts him well and truly in the conversation and he is capable of a 120pt game here which at low ownership will be extremely valuable.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for tonight’s Hawns v Pies $100,000+ contest.
James Worpel ($13,040): If you can afford him then pick him, because few forwards (i’d argue no forwards) in this contest can walk into a 95+ aside from Worpel who is going from strength to strength in 2019. Season-high 9 tackles last week.
Connor Nash ($5,820): Nash is very likely to be underowned given Lewis is just above him with a much safer average and Hanrahan is below him by $400+. A 9pt effort two starts back makes Nash’s average look way worse than it is for this price tag, and if he puts a 4-5 tackle game together with a 10 disposal game we will be laughing.
Tom Scully ($9,980): MCG, fine weather, fast game – Scully all day long. The last two weeks were not Scully games, assess on two starts back when he cracked the ton. Hopefully he last two efforts keep his ownership south of 20%.
Liam Shiels ($14,390): We’re going for a full-blown Hawks midfield stack here so Shiels is very much integral to that. Tackles, finds the footy, pushes forward and kicks goals, gets cheap ones – he is everything you want and more. Not many teams will have him, JOM and Worpel in them so hopefully they all stat up together.
Brayden Sier ($10,220): Sier got concussed last week so hopefully he is fine, we are assuming he is because he’s been named. No Greenwood nor Varcoe does put the onus back on the likes of Sier to really ratched up their tackle pressure and i just feel that anyone looking at his box scores will look elsewhere which makes me really like him.
Jaeger O’Meara ($14,590): Gun. Will dominate tonight. Possibly gets a Pendlebury run-with but it won’t be a hard tag which means O’Meara will be able to roam around finding the footy at will. Coming off a 10 tackle, 37 disposal game you’d think Buckley will put time into him but without a recognised tagger it’s hard to see Jeager not going well here.
Jack Crisp ($13,630): Like Worpel in the forward line, paying up for Crisp is something few will be able to do with so much midfield cream on offer and Brodie Grundy soaking up salary. I expect Crisp to play a big role tonight helping out young Quaynor so taking both of them makes sense to me. Like him for three figures and he is the kind of player who can junk a 130+ on his day and really smash a slate.
Isaac Quaynor ($5,600): This kid finds the footy. he averaged 17 disposals in his 16 Tac Cup / U18 Champs games and he tackles as well. Lock him in for a value game.
Ben McEvoy ($12,580): Big boy is playing his 200th, solo rucking against the best in the business – he will absolutely love this challenge and I expect him to rise to it with a big 100+ score tonight. At 5k less than Grundy, McEvoy just needs to not get flogged to make the selection a good one.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for Sunday’s $40,000+ contest.
Ed Curnow ($11,500): No Cripps should open up an opportunity for Curnow to move into the midfield a lot more. He should spend time on Fyfe regardless though which in the wet will mean tackles. Hopefully he can won’t be too highly-owned.
Tom Lynch ($7,700): Speaking of low-owned, Lynch looks that perfect mix of POD value, salary value and opportunity against a pretty weak St Kilda defence. Should get plenty of supply with the Tigers getting a few guns back in.
Nat Fyfe ($14,810): He is Nat Fyfe, at home, in the wet, against the Blues. Move on.
Angus Brayshaw ($12,850): Giving Gus one last chance here. I like that he burned plenty last week, should keep his ownership nice and low. He is capable of paying off this salary in what should be a very free-flowing game.
Dan Hannebery ($12,100): Saw enough to go again on Hannas even though his price tag has skyrocketed. Will find the footy and will put in defensively for the new side that sold the farm to get him in. Salary may scare a few off today. Sub 15%?
Reece Conca ($11,460): Consistent player who should relish the conditions and really get that tackle count up. It’s a more defensive play though, hoping for an 85-95pter here.
Jayden Short ($9,990): Word from the Tigers training was that Short picked himself in the practise match. I like hearing that. Sounds ready to return, always good for an 80+ especially in a free-flowing game against the Saints.
Bayley Fritsch ($9,480): Going back to Fritsch today after a dissapointing game last week. Should play a lot more wing today with Hibberd returning. Bit of a POD selection, but i think he can hit 80+ no worries.
Sean Darcy ($9,890): It’s wet and Kreuz is always one hitout away from an early shower which makes me like Darcy alot here. Marshall will be pretty popular and is a good selection, but if you don’t have the money then Darcy is the play.