It isn’t a secret that the Lightning Network, a second-layer solution aimed at easing the qualms Bitcoin faces with scalability, has seen monumental levels of adoption as of late. The ecosystem has seen its maximum capacity swell over the 700 BTC milestone, cementing its viability as a system that provides cost-efficient, rapid, secure, and more private transactions.
But this growth hasn’t come unwarranted. Arguably, Lightning’s sudden surge in adoption has much to do with grassroots efforts, like Lightning Pizza and the ever-popular Trust Chain community initiative, launched by HODLnaut just weeks ago.
It appears that lightning has struck once again. This time, Fidelity Investments’ crypto-centric arm, Digital Asset Services, publicly accepted a Lightning Network transaction. On Friday, the cryptocurrency branch of the Wall Street giant, which has approximately $2 trillion in assets under management, joined in on the multi-week Trust Chain fun, accepting a transaction for 3.64 million satoshis.
Fidelity, who has shown a liking to cryptocurrencies and related technologies, is expected to launch its Bitcoin custody offering by March.
For those who missed the memo, Hodlona recently took to his Twitter page to start an interesting community-run initiative. Through the medium of a tweet, Hodl divulged that he wanted Bitcoin users to start a chain through Lightning, whereas participants would send marginally more BTC with each so-called “hop.”
Just hours after Fidelity Digital Assets accepted the torch, it passed it onto the students at Harvard University blockchain club. This is quite fitting, especially considering the hearsay that Harvard’s colossal endowment has allocations in crypto- and blockchain-centric funds.
Harvard’s blockchain club and the aforementioned Wall Street institution join a number of other bigwigs in the cryptosphere that have participated in the Trust Chain, which includes Anthony Pompliano, Klaus Lovgreen, John Carvalho, Marty Bent, leading Bitcoin evangelist Andreas Antonopoulos and Elizabeth Stark of Lightning Labs.
Twitter CEO Enamored With Lightning Tech
Fidelity’s foray into the storm comes after Jack Dorsey, the chief executive of Twitter and Square, effectively embarked on a crusade for this scaling solution.
For the seemingly umpteenth time in weeks, Dorsey has surprised the cryptocurrency space. This time, the Bitcoin fanatic tweeted out the announcement of Tippin, a “game-changer application” that allows social media users on Twitter to get BTC tips for their quips. Alongside the posted link was a simple, yet strong message: “This is excellent.” According to the link that Dorsey broadcasted to his following of millions, Tippin is a Chrome and Firefox browser extension that allows for simple and effective Twitter tipping, giving content creators and personalities the ability to monetize their content further.
Just weeks earlier, he too accepted the torch, hoisting it in the Twitter air after he took to Joe Rogan’s podcast to claim that the native currency of the Internet is likely going to be Bitcoin.
Just one weekend after it passed $3,600, $3,700, and $3,800 in rapid succession, Bitcoin (BTC) surged again. For the first time in a number of weeks, BTC surpassed $4,000 on Saturday, in a move that seemingly came straight out of left field. Much like the rally that was seen a week prior, this move to the upside saw non-Bitcoin digital assets post notable gains — gains that even outshined the flagship cryptocurrency. EOS, for instance, has found itself up by 6%, pushing the $4.10 price point.
EOS Surges Alongside Bitcoin Boom
Other cryptocurrencies have also posted notable gains, but EOS has had the strongest daily performance out of the top five assets, per Live Coin Watch data. While this move has been welcomed by holders of the popular digital asset, what are the speculated catalysts behind this move?
Firstly, much like other cryptocurrencies, EOS ran partially due to Bitcoin’s surge, as this space has been playing ‘follow the leader’ as of late.
In terms of EOS specifically, there have been a few developments pinned to the recent action. The first is Effect.AI’s sudden migration from NEO to EOS. The upstart, centered around the creation of a decentralized and democratic artificial intelligence network, explained that EOS suits its needs much better than NEO can, specifically in regards to its scalability, coding language, technological developments, security, and broader ecosystem/community.
The second could be a comment from Brendan Blumer, the chief executive of EOS’s parent company, Block.one. Issuing a comment on Telegram, Blumer purportedly did his best to reassure investors in the project, remarking that he doesn’t intend sacrifice his brainchild’s credibility and security to push out a product faster, adding that “great things take time.”
EOS Isn’t All Fine And Dandy
While EOS is evidently performing well, posting larger gains than Bitcoin’s 3%, from a fundamental point of view, many are still skeptical of the project’s long-term viability and staying power. More specifically, news recently arose that the project’s blockchain surpassed 4TB in size, which is on an order of magnitude larger than Bitcoin’s.
In response to this controversy, crypto researcher Hasu noted that this debacle accentuates that networks need transaction fees, specifically to avoid blockchain bloat-induced centralization.
The absurd growth rate of the EOS blockchain shows again why networks need TX fees. When transaction costs are socialized on full nodes, demand to transact is infinite (e.g. for spam or fake activity.) The resulting blockchain bloat soon becomes a hugely centralizing force. https://t.co/sxtV5yvsmK
Armin Van Bitcoin also had some choice words for the project. Staying true to his love for BTC, Armin remarked that the project raised $4 billion to “create a centralized network where ordinary users can’t even run their own node,” evidently referring to the lack of pruning and the blockchain’s pure size.
Jameson Lopp, the chief technology officer of CasaNode, also had something to say about this imbroglio. Lopp, a long-standing industry insider, joked that EOS has “achieved the big blocker vision,” touching on the dichotomy between the BTC community and that of forks that promote higher transactional throughput.
So nodes have to buy a new $300 8TB hard drive every 16 months? Why is this a problem? Usenet was growing 1TB/day more than a decade ago…
Funny enough, however, Tim Sweeney of Fortnite creator Epic Games wasn’t too wary of EOS’s 4TB block size. In response to a critique of this facet of the blockchain, Sweeney asked: “what’s wrong with 4tb for a global transaction ledger?” The gaming guru, who has commented on Monero and blockchain technologies previously, explained that nodes need to spend a relatively small “$300 8TB hard drive every 16 months,” which isn’t much a problem in his eyes.
It seems that each month a fresh story surrounding crypto-related scams and fraud surfaces, but the victims of these stories are typically isolated, and the scope of their victimhood is usually limited to financial losses. Despite this, one Bitcoin trader was recently attacked by a group of armed robbers who tortured him using gruesome tactics in front of his young daughter in an effort to extort him out of his BTC holdings.
This robbery took place earlier this month in the Netherlands and is putting a spotlight on the importance of public figures in the cryptocurrency industry keeping their identities and whereabout private.
Grotesque Antics Used in the Hopes of Stealing Trader’s Bitcoin and Crypto Holdings
The robbery occurred on Sunday, February 10th, in the evening at the trader’s home in Zuideind, and is the latest in a string of multiple violent robberies in the area that are being investigated by local authorities.
According to a report first seen in De Telegraaf – the largest Dutch daily morning newspaper – the victim, named Tjeerd H. (38), and his daughter, were shocked to hear a large bang at their front door at approximately 10:00 p.m. on Sunday evening, and found three armed robbers with balaclavas, bulletproof vests, and police jackets.
Unfortunately, the man’s four-year-old daughter was forced to watch as one of the men ran a drill through his body while demanding that he transfer them his Bitcoin and crypto holdings. The victim was sent to the hospital in order to be treated for significant injuries.
It remains unclear as to whether or not H. transferred his holdings to the robbers.
According to the report, fifteen police investigators are currently investigating the robbery, and currently have limited information about the robbers, who reportedly had Moroccan accents and left the scene in an Audi A6.
Notable Crypto Traders Warned to Express Increased Caution
Due to the nature of cryptocurrencies as easily transferable and somewhat anonymous, traders and investors who hold a sizeable amount are easy targets for robbers looking to make a quick buck.
WhalePanda – a popular cryptocurrency investor and a self-proclaimed “Bitcoin Maximalist” – spoke about the event in a recent tweet, warning traders and outspoken crypto-personalities to “stay safe.”
“‘Bitcoin trader tortured with drill’ in the Netherlands… The robbers were dressed as police with bulletproof vests and masks and they made his 4 year old daughter watch as they were torturing him. He survived but was heavily wounded…Stay safe.”
"Bitcoin trader tortured with drill" in the Netherlands. The robbers were dressed as police with bulletproof vests and masks and they made his 4 year old daughter watch as they were torturing him. He survived but was heavily wounded. Stay safe.https://t.co/3b58gbgKZK
As Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to grow in popularity, it is likely that these types of crimes will continue to increase in popularity as well, which makes at all the more important for public figures to shroud themselves in anonymity, and for non-public traders to exercise caution in who they tell about their holdings.
Bitcoin’s bulls awoke earlier today when the crypto markets surged, sending BTC to well over $4,100. This price surge came about after an extended period of sideways trading that signaled to traders that $4,000 was previously a strong level of resistance for the cryptocurrency. Today’s jump may have been fueled in part by a record BTC futures volume earlier this week.
Many prominent analysts are now hinting that Bitcoin’s latest price surge may be more than a dead cat bounce and could signal shifting tides that may mark the end of the persisting bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) Futures Volume Surges to New Records, But Could This be a Dead Cat Bounce?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up over 3% at its current price of $4,120, up from its daily lows of $3,980.
The CME Group noted in a recent tweet that BTC’s futures volume has surged to record highs in recent times, which is partially due to Bitcoin’s recent price ascent that led it to its current prices from monthly lows of $3,400.
“Surge in bitcoin price leads to record $BTC futures volume on February 19 with over 18K contracts traded.”
Peter Brandt, an incredibly popular analyst, spoke about Bitcoin’s current price action in a tweet to his 256k followers, pointing out that there are similarities in BTC’s current price action and that seen in 2015, which was proceeded by a large bull run.
“If Dec 2017 to Feb 2019 is an analog to Dec 2013 to Jan 15, do you have a tactica plan to become fully invested in $BTC? I do.”
If Dec 2017 to Feb 2019 is an analog to Dec 2013 to Jan 15, do you have a tactica plan to become fully invested in $BTC? I do. pic.twitter.com/QkUpvkDHyp
Analyst: Bitcoin Likely to Range Sideways Until $6,000
Although the multiple price surges seen this month have certainly been positive for cryptocurrency traders and investors, one popular cryptocurrency analyst noted that all price moves below $6,000 are likely noise, and any price surges below that price level will not mark the end of the persisting bear market.
“I see the notion thrown around quite regularly that if BTC can go to $4400+ that’d be the start of a bull market. A higher low in combination with a higher high does not mean the bear market is over. I’ll trade expecting sideways till 6k is breached. Sell resistance buy support,” explained DonAlt, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter.
I see the notion thrown around quite regularly that if BTC can go to $4400+ that'd be the start of a bull market. A higher low in combination with a higher high does not mean the bear market is over.
As the markets continue to unfold as the weekend continues on, traders will likely gain greater insight into whether or not the price gains seen throughout February are fleeting, or if bulls will continue to push BTC higher.
What a crazy week it has been for the crypto space. Elon Musk lauded Bitcoin for its “brilliant” structure, subsequently claiming that crypto assets are evidently a better medium of exchange than banknotes. CME’s Bitcoin futures posted a new record, even amid the “nuclear winter.” And Samsung delved into blockchain with its “KeyStore” offering, slated to launch on its Galaxy S10 flagship device.
CME Bitcoin Futures Set Record Volumes: Per exclusive data gathered by The Block, the Bitcoin futures market backed by the Chicago-based CME has garnered monumental levels of attention as of late. Citing an internal email, February 19th, not 24 hours after the aggregate value of all digital assets spiked by 10%, saw CME’s biggest Bitcoin trading session ever in a seeming bear market rally. The firm’s futures vehicle, launched when Bitcoin was trading at $20,000 a piece, saw 18,338 contracts, valued at 91,690 BTC ($360 million), traded on that day alone. Compared to the product’s 4,630 contracts in average daily volumes over recent quarters, the 19th’s session was undoubtedly staggering.
Samsung Unveils Galaxy S10, Which Has Blockchain & Crypto Offering: After months of rumors, Samsung unveiled its new flagship — the Galaxy S10 — at its Unpacked event. While the announcement was the same old, same old, with a flashy keynote, extremely extensive media coverage, and marginal (yet visible) improvements over last year’s phone, something caught the eye of crypto industry participants across the board. According to a press release issued as Unpacked trended on Twitter, the entire S10 lineup will have a blockchain- and crypto-centric feature. The release read that the S10 is built with “defense-grade Samsung Knox,” along with hardware that “houses private keys for blockchain-enabled mobile services.” Although the words “crypto” and “wallet” weren’t explicitly divulged, many believe this facet of the press release indicates that Samsung likely has a wallet or cryptocurrency private key solution product ready to ship for S10 buyers.
U.S. SEC Pushes Two Crypto ETFs To The Federal Register: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently pushed two crypto-backed exchange-traded fund applications to the Federal Register. This means that the governmental entity has 45 days from now to either approve, deny, or delay the proposals from making it through the regulatory hoops. Proposals from Bitwise Asset Management & NYSE Arca and CBOE, VanEck, and SolidX Partners are up on the chopping block.
Elon Musk Lauds Bitcoin For Its Brilliance: Elon Musk recently took to ARK Invest’s “FYI” podcast to touch on Tesla’s plans, autonomy, other innovations, such as crypto. Near the end of the interview, Musk claimed that the “Bitcoin structure was (is) quite brilliant,” adding that Ethereum and “maybe some of the others” have merit too. Musk did admit, however, that he isn’t too enamored with Bitcoin’s mining consensus mechanism, noting that it is rather energy inefficient. Yet, he explained that from a fundamental point of view, cryptocurrencies are great as they bypass currency controls, especially in nations that are in the midst of financial and political turmoil, namely Venezuela. He added that cryptocurrencies are also a “far better way to transfer value than pieces of paper,” subsequently quipping that he’s sure of this “without a doubt.”
Pantera Secures $125 Million In Funding For Crypto Investment: CoinDesk reports that Pantera Capital has secured $125 million for an upcoming venture, slated to close its funding round in March. Citing a partner from Pantera, the outlet claims that the nine-digit sum has been derived from high net-worth individuals, family offices, and others that “could move money quickly.”
University Of Michigan To Invest In A16Z Blockchain Fund: According to an exclusive report from Bloomberg, the University of Michigan’s $12 billion endowment intends to siphon more of its funds into crypto-centric funds in the near future, in spite of the dramatic slump in the Bitcoin price. Per a Board of Regents agenda, the institution has its eyes on a “cryptonetwork technology” (they likely mean blockchain technology) fund managed by the world-renowned Andreessen Horowitz. More specifically “CNK Fund I,” as the vehicle in question has been dubbed by the Menlo Park, California-based venture group that backs it, is currently in the University of Michigan’s scopes. According to Kevin Hegarty, the chief financial officer at the state-run educational institution, CNK invests in “cryptonetwork technology companies across the spectrum of seed, venture and growth stage opportunities.” It wasn’t made clear whether CNK makes allocations to physical crypto assets, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or not.
Facebook’s Zuckerberg Hints At Blockchain Offering: According to The Verge report, which cited an interview that Mark “Zuck” Zuckerberg had with Harvard Law professor Jonathan Zittrain, Facebook is looking into the latter. More specifically, in the recent interview, Zuck claimed that account authentication is a blockchain use case he is “potentially interested in.” He claimed that if this project comes to fruition, it would replace Facebook Connect, allowing individuals to determine what apps and partners can access their personal data in a decentralized manner.
Over the past month Ethereum (ETH) has seen some overwhelmingly positive price action, surging from lows of $104 to highs of over $150. Part of this price surge may be due to its upcoming Constantinople hard fork, which will offer the crypto multiple enhancements and will reduce its future inflation rates, which will likely be positive for the cryptocurrency in the long-term.
Despite this, many analysts are now warning traders that Ethereum will likely see increased selling pressure at the time of, or after, the event, which is in-line with the age-old trader credo of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Ethereum’s Upcoming Constantinople Hard Fork May Lead ETH’s Price to Plunge
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading up nearly 3% at its current price of $149. Many analysts have claimed that Ethereum’s nearly 50% surge from its February lows has led the entire crypto markets to follow suit, and this price surge may be, in part, due to anticipation for Constantinople, which is estimated to occur sometime next week.
Alex Krüger, an economist who focuses primarily on cryptocurrencies, recently spoke about Ethereum’s current price action, noting that a disturbing trend is unfolding with its long to short ratio, which is currently at its highest level since just prior to ETH’s November crash.
“Last time $ETH longs/shorts ratio was this high was before the November 60% crash. Constantinople comes Feb/25. Cryptos often raise in anticipation of a fork -long the narrative- reach a local top days before, and crash into the fork. Mind the current crypto pump was ETH driven,” Krüger explained, further adding that Constantinople is widely expected to occur around February 28th, not the 25th.
Last time $ETH longs/shorts ratio was this high was before the November 60% crash. Constantinople comes Feb/25. Cryptos often raise in anticipation of a fork -long the narrative- reach a local top days before, and crash into the fork. Mind the current crypto pump was ETH driven. https://t.co/jc4hLoWifb
UB, a popular cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, recently shared his thoughts on Ethereum, noting that from a technical perspective ETH looks weak, and may see a pullback to levels as low as $122 in the near-term.
“$ETH – ETH stalling at the Area of Interest makes an argument for distribution. A chart that looks like this (little to no pullback on a run up) isn’t something I would long. I’m looking at a pullback as far as ~122. Yes I know Constantinople etc etc. I trade the charts.”
$ETH – ETH stalling at the Area of Interest makes an argument for distribution.
A chart that looks like this (little to no pullback on a run up) isn't something I would long.
Despite Bearishness, Ethereum Does Have Buying Support Around Current Prices
Although most traders are currently approaching Ethereum with caution – as the effect that events like Constantinople can have on price can be unclear – one analyst is quick to point out that ETH does have a lot of buying pressure around its current price levels, which could be bullish.
“$ETH… Wonder where the buy wall is,” Hsaka, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, concisely noted while referencing an ETH / USD chart.
According to research conducted by UK cyber crime investigation firm Digital Shadows and reported in The Next Web, cyber criminals have managed to generate around $332,000 in Bitcoin from an email-based blackmail scam. These funds were sent from over 3,100 unique Bitcoin addresses.
The scam was first reported in 2017. However, the popularity of the attack grew throughout 2018, with many more examples of the emails surfacing.
Many Scammers Using Same Tactics to Earn Bitcoin
The “sextortion” scam, as the publication has deemed it, is rather basic in its design. Victims receive an email stating that they have been recorded viewing explicit content online through their webcam. The sender pledges to go public with the footage if a ransom is not paid in Bitcoin.
As mentioned, more than $332,000 was sent to scammers using this technique. These funds were deposited to a total of 92 Bitcoin addresses. Digital Shadows estimate that an average of $540 was extorted from each of the victims.
As you can see from the below Tweet, the attack is ongoing:
I keep getting emails threatening to send videos of me with my todger out to all my contacts unless I send them a shedload of bitcoins. The #Sextortion scammers are really boring
The report highlights that different groups using the same basic scam operate with different levels of sophistication. Some of the emails sent are poorly written and show scant knowledge of widespread email distribution. These examples often fail to get past an inbox’s spam filter.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, some of the “sextortion” emails show a much higher level of refinement. For example, many of these more sophisticated examples were sent from outlook.com addresses.
The research undertaken by Digital Shadows involved the analysis of more than 792,000 emails. These were sent from servers thought to be hosted on five different continents. The locations with the highest numbers of emails sent were Vietnam, Brazil, and India. Scammers originating in these nations are believed to be behind 8.5, 5.3, and 4.7 percent of the total number of “sextortion” attempts respectively. However, it is quite possible that the email servers could have been compromised too as part of the attack.
According to a report in The Independent, “sextortion” scammers are increasingly turning to social media sites to target high net worth individuals. In this variant of the above scam, individuals have been offered as much as $1.1 million to help target the most lucrative marks. This more sophisticated version of the scam involves forming a relationship with a married person and then threatening to reveal it if a ransom in Bitcoin is not paid.
Senior strategy and research analyst at Digital Shadows, Rafael Amado, commented on the use of social media in the “sextortion” scam:
“Using it can help identify a potential victim’s job, likely salary and firms they have worked for. They may also disclose details of family members, marital status and their location. If this is supplemented with breach data such as passwords then it can make an extortion attempt more potent.”
Bitcoin is once again beginning to creep towards its strong resistance level at $4,000 following a relatively involatile trading session over the past couple of days. Although BTC has seen some incredibly bullish momentum over the past few weeks and has firmly established the low-$3,000 region as a strong level of support, its upwards ascent stalled once it was rejected at $4,000.
Now, one analyst claims that breaking decisively above $4,000 in the near-future is critical for Bitcoin, as doing so would break the “lower high bounce” trend that BTC has experienced consistently since reaching $20,000 in late-2017.
Bitcoin Climbs Slightly, But BTC Faces Strong Resistance at $4,000
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up approximately 1% at its current price of $3,985. Ever since BTC surged to its current price levels from weekly lows of $3,600, it has been pushed down each time it touches $4,000, which signals that a large amount of selling pressure exists at this price level.
It is currently unclear as to whether or not Bitcoin’s bulls will be able to garner enough buying pressure to break through this level, but a failure to do so in the near-future may lead to a large drop.
Chonis Trading, a popular cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, spoke about the importance of breaking above $4,000 in a recent tweet, explaining to his followers that every oversold BTC bounce has been followed by lower highs, but a break above $4k would break this persisting trend.
“$BTC – Since Bitcoin $20k every oversold bounce (1) has been followed up by a lower high bounce (2) that gets rejected right around the .55fib extension of the previous bullish impulsive move. Breaking this trend has #bitcoin closing over $4k otherwise another strong rejection…”
$BTC – Since Bitcoin $20k every oversold bounce (1) has been followed up by a lower high bounce (2) that gets rejected right around the .55fib extension of the previous bullish impulsive move. Breaking this trend has #bitcoin closing over $4k otherwise another strong rejection… pic.twitter.com/9agBo9rxxN
Although Bitcoin’s recent bout of sideways trading has left many traders wondering as to where its price is heading next, one analyst believes that its ability to hold steady and consolidate at its current price levels without being pushed down is a bullish development.
One analyst believes that Bitcoin’s recent bout of sideways trading could actually be bullish.
TraderKoz, another popular cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, spoke about this, noting that the bull’s ability to support Bitcoin’s price at its current levels leads him to believe that they will be able to continue pushing its price up.
“The fact that $ETH and $BTC are just consolidating here without being pushed down makes me bullish. You’d think that we’d have a retrace by now but the bulls are holding price up. I’m expecting another push up.”
The fact that $ETH and $BTC are just consolidating here without being pushed down makes me bullish.
You'd think that we'd have a retrace by now but the bulls are holding price up. I'm expecting another push up.
As the markets head into the weekend, it is likely that Bitcoin and the general cryptocurrency markets will see increased levels of volatility due to lower-than-typical trading volumes, which may give analysts greater insight as to where the markets are heading next.
The Bitcoin price has become relatively stable over the last few weeks. In fact, according to Buy Bitcoin Worldwide, the 30-day volatility index for BTC is now at 2.55% — the lowest since July.
What does this drop in volatility mean for Bitcoin? Could it serve as a driver for further merchant adoption or is it simply reflective of a shift in the attitudes of traders?
Is Bitcoin’s Low Volatility Simply a Case of Bored Traders?
Whether you are a seasoned Bitcoiner or have only heard about the number one digital asset from a few mainstream news articles, you are bound to know about its volatility. Massive price swings in either direction are common. This has made it a highly lucrative asset to trade – providing you know what you are doing.
However, recently volatility has been dropping. According to a Tweet by self-proclaimed Bitcoin enthusiast Alec Ziupsnys, the swings in Bitcoin price have been declining over the years:
This is supported by research conducted by Buy Bitcoin Worldwide and reported by Market Watch. The publication provided speculation about the reasoning behind such declining volatility from Elements Digital Asset Management.
In a write up focused on Bitcoin’s volatility, Elements portfolio director, Thejas Nalval, and director of quantitative research Kevin Lu stated that it was too premature to claim that the market was adopting Bitcoin as a store-of-value and thus there was less buying and selling pressure to create Bitcoin price swings. The pair also rejected the notion that transparency and increased market efficiency had caused the drop.
Instead, they favoured a rather less exciting narrative:
“We’re a bit more sceptical. We think the market has quite simply just run out of juice for now. It’s almost become boring.”
This makes a lot of sense. Many amateur traders have likely fled the market after suffering losses as a result of the ongoing bear market. Whilst those that have been successful at trading Bitcoin are likely still looking for opportunities to trade, the lack of “dumb money” creating the massive market shifts seen previously will have prompted many to explore other markets too.
Recent big news events have barely impacted the price of Bitcoin at all. This shows that there is less money prepared to move in and out of the market based on short-term events – the kind of emotional trading decisions made by non-professional market participants.
Could Low Bitcoin Volatility Drive Adoption?
One of the biggest hurdles for merchant adoption of Bitcoin has always been the volatility of the currency. Retailers and customers alike do not enjoy the idea of overpaying or undercharging for an item in the time it takes a transaction to process. Therefore, it figures that lower volatility should encourage more retailers to accept the number one digital currency, right?
Well, maybe. It is certainly true that many merchants and customers would prefer to see Bitcoin at stable prices before they are prepared to use the digital asset as a medium of exchange.
However, it is important to remember that we are still in the very early days of this experiment in decentralised finance. For the kind of stability in prices needed for all merchants and customers to be happy using Bitcoin for everyday purchases, the market would need to be many orders of magnitude bigger than it is today. Essentially, the volatility would need to drop as a result of the sheer size of the market, rather than traders simply finding other markets to profit from.
People across the globe still want to make money trading. As soon as the Bitcoin market moves in one direction or another, there will be traders ready to take advantage of the swings once again. This will create new volatility and as the market becomes “exciting” once again, more will come to try their hand at buying and selling Bitcoin. This creates a sort of feedback loop as the more trying to make cash through trading means the greater the volatility will be – until the market reaches such colossal proportions that traders buying and selling the asset has little impact on the price. When or more accurately if this occurs, the price of Bitcoin would be higher than many but the most bullish today could possibly imagine.
Bitcoin’s recent bullish rally has helped the leading crypto asset return to mean after $6K support was penetrated by bears. Given its potential, it’s clear to see that Bitcoin is currently undervalued by most analyst’s standards. Bitcoin price predictions place the number one crypto by market cap in the hundreds of thousands, with some estimates reaching a staggering $1 million USD.
Such an estimate was made my the eccentric cyber security expert turned crypto influencer John McAfee, who offered to eat his own “dick on national television” if his prediction didn’t come true by the end of the year 2020. Since that bold claim was made, the crypto community has been watching Bitcoin price closely, tracking it in accordance with the McAfee “dickline.” According to the infamous “dickline,” Bitcoin is currently nearly $34K undervalued.
Bitcoin Falling Short of Dickline Trajectory to McAfee’s $1M Prediction
Back in July of 2017 before Bitcoin price truly went parabolic, founder of anti-virus pioneer McAfee Labs, John McAfee, made a claim that it would reach $500,000 per BTC “within three years.” He later revised his estimate based on a new prediction model due to how quickly the cryptocurrency’s value skyrocketed, and changed it to $1 million by the end of 2020. He also reiterated his commitment to his wager.
When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bircoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong. pic.twitter.com/WVx3E71nyD
Following McAfee’s tweet, the crypto community became so enamored with the wild yet confident prediction that a website was developed called dickline.info that was dedicated to tracking Bitcoin’s progress along a plotted 0.484095526% per day growth trajectory that would match up with McAfee’s end goal for BTC.
The infamous “dickline” had been mostly forgotten about as McAfee distracted the world with his antics, which includes a Presidential run in 2020, a crypto-backed fiat currency that adorns his likeness, and his going into exile to avoid paying taxes to the IRS.
However, outspoken cypherpunk and creator of Satoshi.info Jameson Lopp didn’t forget, and recently called attention to how Bitcoin is grossly undervalued according to the “dickline” trajectory.
According to the site, Bitcoin price is currently 89.51% below where the leading crypto’s value would need to be to reach $1 million by the end of 2020. For Bitcoin to reach such a milestone, it should currently be valued at $37,797 according to the site. The number one crypto by market cap is currently trading at around $3,930 – suggesting that BTC is undervalued by nearly $34K.
While many believe that Bitcoin will indeed reach incredible value if its potential is ever fully realized, a $1 million per BTC prediction may be unreachable as it would put its market cap somewhere around $21 trillion dollars. If it doesn’t reach the lofty goal set by McAfee, crypto enthusiasts will be disappointed Bitcoin didn’t reach it, but they’ll surely be tuning in to watch McAfee stay true to his word on national television.