It’s been a banner year for the major US stock indexes, but one economically sensitive corner of the market sticks out as a sore spot. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen about five per cent so far this year, a significant contrast with the nine per cent year-to-date rise for the benchmark S&P 500 and the one per cent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average which topped 40,000 points for the first time this month. While major indexes including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow have all set new all-time highs this year, the Dow transports have ye ..read more

Business confidence has climbed to its highest level since before the Brexit referendum, according to a closely watched survey, as firms grew increasingly optimistic about the state of the economy. Lloyds’ Business Barometer showed that business confidence increased by eight points in May to hit 50 per cent, the highest level since November 2015. Rising confidence in May reflected both increasing optimism in firms’ own trading prospects, which rose nine points to 54 per cent, as well as a more hopeful assessment of the wider economy. Read more ‘Stars are aligning’ for UK economy after inflati ..read more

There is one thing we’ve heard over and over again from Rishi Sunak in this election campaign: the plan is working. But what exactly is ‘the plan’? City A.M. has had a look at what Sunak and Hunt have been saying over the past couple of years, pulling together what can, with a bit of squinting, be described as a plan. Before looking at what the plan consists of, it’s worth making two things clear. Firstly, this is not the campaign the Conservatives are in fact running. They are running on a pledge of forcing young people into the army and (half) cutting taxes for pensioners. Secondly, this pr ..read more

Moving markets today: Asia stocks surge despite Wall Street stumble, Nasdaq sees largest monthly drop after tech sell-off; oil prices decline, China’s manufacturing contracts unexpectedly in May; Focus shifts to US PCE and eurozone inflation figures  US stocks ended the day with losses on Thursday, particularly in the tech sector, as seen in the Nasdaq’s drop of over 1 per cent, fuelled by disappointing forecasts from Salesforce. However, Asian markets showed gains on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive performance. Oil prices declined early on Friday following remar ..read more

China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in May, adding pressure on policymakers in the world’s No. 2 economy, already grappling with a prolonged economic crisis marked by a property downturn and high unemployment.  The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.5 in May, missing expectations and reversing the growth seen in April and March. A PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction compared to the previous month.  “The sizeable drop in the official PMIs this month suggests that the recovery has lo ..read more

With debt at its highest level since the 1960s and growth sluggish, the next government will face some very difficult choices. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests that the next government will inherit the worst set of fiscal challenges since the 1950s. Predictably both parties are reluctant to suggest they will raise taxes, but in recent weeks both have found a conveniently painless source of revenue: clamping down on tax avoidance. The Conservatives claim they can raise £6bn through tackling tax avoidance while Labour think they can find an extra £5bn. Sunak has already promised ..read more

Moving markets today: Asian stocks follow Wall Street lower as yields climb, oil prices fall; Salesforce shares plunge 15 per cent; US Q1 GDP, Auto Trader in spotlight  US stocks experienced a decline due to rising Treasury yields and apprehension surrounding potential adjustments to interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This downward trend extended to Asian markets on Thursday, accompanied by a decrease in bond prices as expectations mounted for sustained elevated global interest rates. Expectations for another negative session loomed over the London stock exchange, with FTSE 100 futur ..read more

The pound rose to its highest level against the euro in nearly two years as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to fire the starting gun on global interest rate cuts next week. Sterling has climbed 0.6 per cent against the euro over the past month, reaching a peak of just under 85p per euro earlier on Wednesday morning. This put the pound at its highest level against the euro since August 2022. Read more Could the Bank of England still cut rates in June after poor inflation figures? The move comes as traders expect the ECB to start cutting interest rates next week. At its last meeting i ..read more

Reports have suggested that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been suffering from high staff turnover at a time when question marks are growing about the accuracy of its data. According to a freedom of information request submitted by the Financial Times, 958 people left the ONS in the year to March, more than double the number of those who joined. This meant a fifth of the workforce left the statistics agency in the year to March, up significantly on pre-pandemic levels. In 2018-19, 694 people left the ONS. Read more Confidence in ONS statistics remains high but data issues might ..read more

Moving markets today: Asian markets slide on inflation fears; oil prices climb, IMF boosts China growth forecast, Australia inflation surge; investors eye Fedspeak and Beige Book  US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, marking a positive start to the shortened holiday week. However, the mood shifted in most Asian markets on Wednesday as concerns over persistent inflation weighed heavily. There’s apprehension that central banks might need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to curb inflation. On the other hand, oil prices climbed as expectations grew that major producers w ..read more