Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers
Capital Economics » China Economics
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8h ago
China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a ..read more
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CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1w ago
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support ..read more
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What would an end to the property crisis look like?
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1w ago
Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all ..read more
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China’s overseas lending push has stalled
Capital Economics » China Economics
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3w ago
Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global ..read more
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Targeted regulations won’t fix structural overcapacity
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
With the EU and US both apparently moving closer to imposing new trade restrictions on EVs and possibly on other "new energy" products from China, China's state media this week made a concerted effort ..read more
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Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable ..read more
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Will China devalue the renminbi?
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry ..read more
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China Chart Pack (Apr. 24)
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the ..read more
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CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in ..read more
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PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback
Capital Economics » China Economics
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1M ago
The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains ..read more
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