May temperatures jag up as warmer spell continues for 12 straight months
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
The UAH global average temperature anomaly (lower troposphere) for May 2020 was again closer to the IPCC-Gore “dangerous” warming projection from the 2007 average than to the Green-Armstrong-Soon forecast of no-change (trend). The absolute error from predicting dangerous warming remains greater than that of the error from no change over the more than 12-years of the Climate Bet so far, however, being 2.6% greater. The May figure was yet another reversal in the direction of change (“trend”) from one month to the next. That is the norm. Over the now more than 40 years of the UAH temperature seri ..read more
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April 2020 warmish, but coolest since July last year
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
April’s anomaly remained above halfway between the no-change—from 2007 annual average—forecast and the IPCC/Gore +3°C per century warming projection, and so with its smaller error counts as a win for the month for the projection. The recent run of warmer global average temperatures has pushed the cumulative relative absolute error to 1.039—which means that the warming projection’s cumulative absolute error is 3.9% larger than that of the no-change forecast—the lowest it has been since December 2010, 3 years into The Bet. As a consequence of the run of warmer temperatures, The Bet is more alive ..read more
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March 2020 cooler than IPCC/Gore projection for first time since October
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
As expected from the history of the series, the UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly declined in March. The decline took the temperature to a level last seen in October. Why expected? Considering the whole UAH series (496 months less 2), the correlation between the month-to-month change in temperature and the previous month-to-month change (the lagged series) is -0.3322. The negative sign indicating that if the most recent month’s temperature anomaly is up on the previous one, the next month is more likely to be down, and vice versa. How likely is a reversal of direction be ..read more
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Global temp warmer than 3°C/century trend for 4th month
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
Global mean  temperatures have been warmer than the IPCC/Gore 3°C per century extrapolation for the four months to February 2020. All but one month (May 2019) in the last 14 months has been closer to the IPCC extrapolation than to the Green, Armstrong and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast. Does that mean that the global warming extrapolation is now ahead in the extended, 20-year, Climate Bet? No, it does not. The cumulative monthly error from betting on a 3°C-per-century extrapolation from the 2007 annual average temperature anomaly is more than 5% greater than the error from betting on no change ..read more
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Temperatures remained warmer than average in January 2020
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
The UAH global average temperature anomaly was 0.56°C in January, which was the same as it was in December of last year and not much different from the 0.55°C in November. In the 145 months of the Climate Bet so far, the global temperature anomaly has been 0.56°C or warmer for only nine months, albeit all of those months occurred after 2015. An inspection of the Whole-Earth Thermometer with the updated data, reveals that temperatures go down just about as often as they go up. The figures for the life of The Bet so far are 47% down, and 51% up. For the entire UAH temperature anomaly series of 4 ..read more
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Claims 2019 warmest Australian year inconsistent with satellite record
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
The UAH global average  temperature anomaly relative to the 1981 to 2010 average was 0.56°C in December, up from 0.55°C the previous month. The 2019 average was the second warmest year in the 12 years of The Bet so far, as is shown by the blue stepped line in the “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart on the top-right of this page. While the global anomaly for 2019 was closer to the IPCC-Gore 3°C-per-century warming extrapolation line than to the Green-Armstrong-Soon no-trend forecast, it was below the warming line, as it has remained for all but two of the Bet’s 12 years to date. The Climate Bet is ..read more
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November 2019 sees global temperature above Bet warming line
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
With the release of the UAH November 2019 global temperature anomaly, there have been 28 months in which the anomaly equaled or exceeded the 3°C-per-century warming trend line projected from the 2007 Bet base year average. That compares with the 57 months in which the anomaly has been less than or equal to the scientific no-change forecast proposed by Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) and the basis of Scott Armstrong’s challenge to Al Gore to bet on forecasts of global temperatures. Those figures give a sense of how modest the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century warming trend is compared to month-to-month ..read more
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September 2019 anomaly above IPCC/Gore warming for first time in 2 years
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by Heidi Mercer
4y ago
September recorded the warmest global mean temperature anomaly since October of 2017. If the months of the fourth quarter of 2019 stay on the warmer side, 2019 could be the fourth year in twelve in which the annual average global temperature anomaly has been closer to a 3°C-per-century warming trend than to no-change. For the updated chart of progress of the Climate Bet, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer image on the top right of the screen ..read more
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No change in global average temperatures from July to August
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
The UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly remained unchanged in August 2019 from the previous month at 0.38°C. The month counts as the seventh win for Mr Gore out of the eight months of this year so far—the 44th win out of the 140 months of the extended bet, so far. With no change in the average, it is interesting to observe to what extent the regional averages changed. Average temperature anomalies in the tropics fell from 0.61°C to 0.37°C over the land and rose from 0.40°C to 0.44°C over the sea. The corresponding figures for the northern polar region were a rise from 0.25 ..read more
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June 2019 warmer than May, on average
The Climatebet | Global Warming Blog
by admin
4y ago
At 0.47°C, June’s global temperature anomaly was up from May’s, and was the warmest since October 2017, 20 months ago. The June figure was also slightly warmer than the 2007 Bet base year’s maximum monthly anomaly of 0.43°C. The experience of regions varied considerably, however, as US readers will likely have noticed. The anomaly for the 48 contiguous U.S. states was -0.64°C, which was even cooler than May, the previous month. Australia’s anomaly, while positive, was cooler than the previous 3 months, as was the case with the entire southern hemisphere over the land. The northern polar region ..read more
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