click to enlarge   I have been gazing in my crystal ball to come up with an educated guess of the launch time (and with that, the possible orbit) of Malligyong-2, the upcoming North Korean satellite launch (see previous post). The Navigational Warnings for the launch are similar to those for Malligyong-1 (2023-179A, (see previous post), which was launched on 21 November 2023 and is orbiting in a sun-synchronous morning orbital plane. So it is likely that Malligyong-2 goes into a similar 97.4 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km sun-synchronous orbit. It would make sense however if  ..read more

click map to enlarge Navigational Warnings (HYDROPAC 1800/24) have appeared for a new North Korean satellite launch, the launch of their second military reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-2, from Sohae. North Korea also informed the Government of Japan of the upcoming launch. The three hazard areas A to C  from the Navigational Warning are the same as those for the Malligyong-1 launch half a year ago (21 November 2023 - see this earlier blogpost). Quite likely therefore, the launch will go into a similar 97.4 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km Sun-synchronous orbit. Stage 2 and stag ..read more

On May 22, 2024, at 08:00:20 UTC, SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg SLC-4 as NROL-146, carrying 21 classified payloads for the NRO. It is the first operational launch of a 'proliferated architecture' (meaning: launching a lot of the same payloads, creating redundancy and with that less vulnerability to failure or countermeasures). The mission motto was: 'Strength in Numbers'. Based on previous SDA Tranche 0 launches, I initially guessed that they would go in a ~900 km orbit. But on May 22 near 23:08 UTC, Spanish meteor cameras operated by the SPMN recorded a Starlink 'train' like ph ..read more

click to enlarge    (this blogpost reflects discussions with and information provided by Bart Hendrickx, Bob Christy and Jonathan McDowell) In a previous blogpost I wrote about a Russian launch into SSO from Plesetsk on May 16. According to Roscosmos, the launch was at 21:21:29 UTC. Based on the Sun-Synchronous orbit indicated by the launch azimuth I initially suspected this to be a new IMINT mission, but now I am not so sure.  IMINT is part of it, but not all, and the primary payload, KOSMOS 2576, might actually be another inspector satellite, this time targetting the ..read more

click map to enlarge A Navigational Warning has appeared that points to a US missile test conducted west of Hawaii in the period May 23 - 25, 2024, 21:30-0300 UTC.  The shape of the hazard zones is similar to that of the (failed) June 2022 JFC-1 Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) test, which is part of a US Navy program for a submarine-launched MRBM with a hypersonic glider as reentry vehicle. The program has ties with the US Army LHRW hypersonic missile program discussed on this blog a few times. The range indicated by this test is about 3500 km. The Navigational Warning (also is ..read more

click map to enlarge Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to a Russian launch from Plesetsk between May 16-26. The direction of launch as indicated by the hazard zones from the Navigational Warnings (see maps above and below), points to launch into a ~97.75 degree inclined Sun-synchronous orbit. This, in turn, points to an IMINT mission, i.e. an optical reconnaissance satellite. There are two options: another BARS M satellite (BARS M6), or something new. There are indications of the latter. Compared to previous BARS M launches, in addition to hazard zones near the Kola peni ..read more

Artist impression of ACS3 once the sail is deployed (image: NASA) On 23 March 2024, Rocket Lab launched the Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3), a NASA solar sail experiment. The main goal of the mission is to test the deployment of a 80 m2 (9 x 9 meter) solar sail from a 12U cubesat bus. The sail will be deployed late May or early June 2024, i.e. some 2 months after the launch. ACS3 (2024-077B) is in a 97.4 deg inclined, 993 x 1023 km sun-synchronous orbit.   The 9 x 9 meter ACS3 sail (image: NASA) ACS3 orbit On 3 May 2024, I managed to image the 12U ..read more

click to enlarge  (more imagery below the text) On May 10, 2024, the strongest Solar storm in 20 years hit Earth. As a result, Aurora borealis (Northen Lights) was visible at much lower latitides than normally, including the Netherlands, where it put on a splendid, bright, colorful display between midnight and 1 am of the night of May 10-11. Looking at the geomagnetic data just before nightfall on the 10th, I knew we had good chances of an impressive display. It had been a sunny day, the sky was clear, albeit with some cirrus.  I bicycled 30 minutes to get to the Vlietlande ..read more

stack of 100 frames   Last week I finally got my first views of Malligyong-1 (2023-179A), the new reconnaissance satellite which North Korea launched on 21 November 2023 (see this earlier blogpost on the launch, and these and these  Space Review articles  regarding the satellites manoeuvering). As it makes passes in the late evening, it so far had remained hidden in the Earth Shadow, but now summer is approaching it is rappidly becoming visible. My first detection was on 22 April, when it stayed faint due to unfavourable phase angles, and my second detection was yester ..read more

Mentor 6 on April 16, 2024. Click image to enlarge A number of SIGINT satellites in geosynchronous orbit have been moving lately. A small roundup: There is the brand new SIGINT satellite Mentor 10 (USA 353, 2024-067A) that is slowly drifting westwards to its operational position by ~1.35 degrees per day, since its launch and initial insertion at longitude 100 E on April 9. This was discussed in this previous blogpost.  But an earlier Mentor (also known as ADVANCED ORION), Mentor 6 (2012-034A), has also been moving recently, from longitude 55.6 E to 51.1 E. This move happened som ..read more