Since the onset of the ongoing pandemic, we’ve all had to come to grips with a new way of living and a new acronym – WFH, or “work from home.” The trendlines are startling. The impact has spread across the real estate sector and can be seen in everything from struggling mall properties to booming second home sales. Some of these changes may be temporary but others are likely to be around even after the introduction of an effective vaccine and a return to something approaching normalcy. A June report from Stanford University found that about 42% of the U.S. labor force was working from home at ..read more

Author’s note: The accelerated pace with which we have been bombarded with news during 2020 has been astonishing. As we’ve touched on in several of our blog posts and updates this year, looking back on a just-ended month often feels as though you’re looking several years into the past, rather than a handful of weeks. Trying to recap October is perhaps the perfect example of this phenomenon, since as I sit here writing this, in just the first few days of November, we’ve had to process the lack of clarity around the Presidential election results, the failure of a “Blue wave” to emerge and bring ..read more

New York Life Investments presents a weekly podcast from our Multi-Asset Solutions team. Hosts Lauren Goodwin and Robert Serenbetz bring a fresh look at what matters for the economy, markets, and a multi-asset portfolio. Tune in for a weekly dose of what’s driving portfolio decision-making at New York Life Investments. The podcast will be available on this blog, the website, and all your favorite podcast platforms such as Spotify and iTunes. In this episode, Lauren and Robert turn their attention away from the election and focus back in on the economy. Spoiler alert – it’s a mixed bag. The two ..read more

October has a reputation as being a tough month for stocks, but September has often been the real culprit. Since 1950, it has, on average, been the worst month of the year for equities. Looking at the years 1980-2019, September is one of just two months that have seen negative returns, declining -0.70% on average for the period. This September again fell in line with historical trends as the S&P 500 lost -4.0% during the period, while the Nasdaq fell about 5%. The damage started early. On the second day of the month the S&P took a tumble, retreating more than -3.5% from its record high ..read more

The outcome: too close and too early The U.S. Presidential election remains too early and too close to call. As of 10am Eastern time, Joe Biden has more paths to 270 Electoral College votes than Donald Trump, but the result appears to point toward divided government – not a blue wave. It is now likely that we will not know the winner until votes in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are counted. We do not believe that election uncertainty marks the end of the recovery, but rather reflects a number of uncertainties around the path of the virus, and the size and timing of f ..read more

Hard as it may be to believe, the election season won’t last forever. No matter who wins the world will go on. But as we close in on Election Day, it’s worth a quick look back at how markets have typically performed during these periods. One brokerage firm report, citing Bloomberg data, noted that over the last 75 years the stock market has returned an average of 0.5% in the month prior to the election and that it was positive in slightly more than half of those years. Following the election and through year-end, the markets were up an average of 4.1% and were positive 83% of the time. This co ..read more

The U.S. election is less than a month away, and investors are naturally concerned about the consequences. We’ve written before that it is real policy change, or the likelihood thereof, that shapes the investment environment—not short-term political dynamics. That said, one of the major policy changes that could come is an increase in taxes. In a recent episode of our Market Matters podcast, New York Life Investments interviewed Chief Economist Poul Kristensen on the potential for tax changes – both for companies and households – and how that could impact portfolios. Question: Taxes are one of ..read more

New York Life Investments presents a weekly podcast from our Multi-Asset Solutions team. Hosts Lauren Goodwin and Robert Serenbetz bring a fresh look at what matters for the economy, markets, and a multi-asset portfolio. Tune in for a weekly dose of what’s driving portfolio decision-making at New York Life Investments. The podcast will be available on this blog, the website, and all your favorite podcast platforms such as Spotify and iTunes. In this episode, Lauren and Robert dive into a space previously unexplored on the podcast – venture capital. Along with special guest Joel Albarella, Head ..read more

As we all know, the outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States created unprecedented municipal bond market volatility during March and April of 2020. Beginning in May, we saw a remarkable u-turn in the market where both the investment grade and high yield municipal bond indices rallied and generated 14 straight weeks of positive total returns before taking a slight pause in mid-August. Meanwhile, mutual fund net flows swung from -$21.8 billion to +$20 billion. With the November 2020 presidential election quickly approaching, many investors are bracing for more potential muni market volatility ..read more

Not all risks are created equal; looking at merger arbitrage through a managed risk lens That risk and reward are related is a key tenet of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and portfolio construction. To achieve a return above the risk-free rate, usually figured as the yield on a 3-month U.S. Treasury bill, you have to assume some level of risk, but it’s important for investors to minimize exposure to those risks not associated with the expectation of positive returns and to manage the remaining risks to better the chances of seeing some of the “rewards” from the risk/reward relationship. Looking ..read more