Discussion: A shallow split flow pattern is happening across the continental US through this week and weekend, seen from 250mb analysis. The separate streams are only about 1000 miles apart from California through the Central US before interacting closer for the E US. The closer E US proximity of these jets are responsible for brining low after low together for NJ rain. At 500mb, we’re alternating between higher and lower geopotential heights despite the zonal pattern. At the lower-levels we have ample lifting potential within an unsettled environment to warrant shower and thunderstorm capabil ..read more

Discussion: A ridge will remain in place over the E US for most of this weekend. High pressure on the front of that ridge will park and meander over the NE US through Saturday before then tracking southward towards Bermuda Sunday. This is significant because while the high stays over the NE US, it will produce onshore flow (E winds off the ocean) for New Jersey. Since ocean surface temperatures offshore of NJ are around 54F, that creates a colder upstream air mass source which should continue to chill NJ out for the weekend. By Sunday, the high should be tracking southward which will turn the ..read more

Discussion: We’ve finally turned the corner towards the warmer months of the year. I can handle a cold March but a cold April chaps my posterior. For much of April, either onshore flow (45-55F) or N/NW flow (even chillier) has dominated our air mass source. Only yesterday, have we transitioned towards a warmer S/SW flow…and this looks to hold. I’m not saying every day will be warm from here until summer. But most days should now reach above 70 inland/above 60 along the coast. We are likely finished with highs only in the 40s/maybe 50s. An E US ridge is responsible for the anomalously warm cond ..read more

Discussion: My goodness yesterday was chilly for the time of year. I didn’t make it out of the upper-40s. A few nights just below freezing and even some isolated mixed precip the other morning. Goodbye and good riddance to that air mass. It was a combination of onshore flow and lower geopotential heights which dominated the recent chilly pattern. Ridging is now (Friday) already building in and that should last through at least next weekend. First, we deal with one final colder night tonight (Friday). The NWS has frost advisories in place until 9AM tomorrow (Saturday) morning. Today (Friday) al ..read more

Discussion: The lower heights will soon move out of NJ. A series of ridging will then build over NJ for much of the foreseeable forecast period (through next weekend). An upper low departs the lower Mid-Atlantic US Mon-Tues. Then a shallow and progressive trough/upper-low brings a rainy disturbance Tuesday night through most of Wednesday. We see some chillier conditions behind that system (for Thursday) but then we start a nice gradual build into 70s statewide by the end of the weekend. In addition to tonight’s, Thursday and Friday nights should be the last of the frost advisories for a while ..read more

Discussion: The only upper-level feature jumping out at me is next Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a cut-off low/trough. Otherwise, it looks like a bunch of mundane and zonal flow with slight deviations + and – for height anomalies. For this weekend into next week, we have a strong trough but it’s centered over E Canada. NJ is just to the S of it so will not get in on the colder air like E Canada and parts of NE US. After that the pattern looks to progress warmer further into spring. For tonight (Friday), we have a very weak front pushing through which most model guidance suggests minimal ra ..read more

Discussion: I’ll put the routine weekend outlook out tomorrow but wanted to discuss an early weekend expectation as well as where we’re going in the future. There’s nothing major showing but I’m sensing many of you are becoming curious about outdoor conditions as we approach the warmer season. Today is a good example of what’s known as a Back Door Cold Front (BDCF). As we know, areas of high pressure produce synoptic-scale anti-cyclonic (clockwise) flow around their center, in the Northern Hemisphere. Well, today we have high pressure over New England (to the N of NJ) which means NJ is subject ..read more

Discussion: The upper-levels should stay in a positive anomaly configuration for geopotential heights through this week and weekend. That means we won’t be turning cold. But since the pattern will be slightly zonal, we could turn chilly for a bit. After a chilly Saturday, yesterday (Sunday) and today (Monday) were absolute aces outside. Tomorrow should be nice as well but then rain moves in for Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a slow-moving warm front. We get a break Friday followed by more possible rain in the weekend from a cold front and possible coastal low. I will say, that this coming w ..read more

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough will push through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US Friday-Saturday. We experienced the warm sector and frontal rain from a surface low riding the front of this trough yesterday into this morning. Tonight through Saturday morning, we’ll experience the trailing upper-level low within the trough and all the fun precip/lifting that provides which is mainly targeting NNJ/CNJ over SNJ. But everyone is on the hook for additional isolated showers tonight (Friday) through Saturday morning/afternoon. Saturday and Saturday night should be the coldest ..read more

Discussion: Another synoptic storm system will bring rain today through Friday, possibly Saturday. But it looks pretty good after that. Let’s break it down. First, this will not be a significant rain and wind event like last week. For this event, we’re looking at .75-1.25 inches of total rainfall, not 3+. Wind gusts should commonly reach 25-35mph across NJ with maybe a few 40-45mph periods closer to the ocean, not 50-60mph+. Coastal flooding should be held to the minor category, not minor-to-moderate. So a much less impactful event, more in the category of nuisance than hazardous. For those fa ..read more