Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough will push through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US Friday-Saturday. We experienced the warm sector and frontal rain from a surface low riding the front of this trough yesterday into this morning. Tonight through Saturday morning, we’ll experience the trailing upper-level low within the trough and all the fun precip/lifting that provides which is mainly targeting NNJ/CNJ over SNJ. But everyone is on the hook for additional isolated showers tonight (Friday) through Saturday morning/afternoon. Saturday and Saturday night should be the coldest ..read more

Discussion: Another synoptic storm system will bring rain today through Friday, possibly Saturday. But it looks pretty good after that. Let’s break it down. First, this will not be a significant rain and wind event like last week. For this event, we’re looking at .75-1.25 inches of total rainfall, not 3+. Wind gusts should commonly reach 25-35mph across NJ with maybe a few 40-45mph periods closer to the ocean, not 50-60mph+. Coastal flooding should be held to the minor category, not minor-to-moderate. So a much less impactful event, more in the category of nuisance than hazardous. For those fa ..read more

Discussion: I imagine there will be a few people calling out with “stomach bugs” tomorrow (Tuesday) as temps surge into the 70s for most of NJ with ample sunshine. Today (Monday) is a transitional day between the colder/rainy pattern and the approaching milder pattern…but you can feel what’s coming. Today and tomorrow are warm and dry from the return flow of weak high pressure near Bermuda. A Canadian low will then hand its cold frontal boundary to another low tracking through the C US in the form of a rainy warm front. This should push more clouds and rain into NJ Wednesday through Friday aft ..read more

Discussion: The upper low is still meandering off coastal New England (Gulf of Maine area) placing New Jersey on its SW side. We therefore have NW flow with lower geopotential heights and unsettled conditions. As long as we are within proximity to this upper low, there are rain shower chances since less lift is required to saturate moisture to the point of condensation. Rain chances today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) are very minute however with just isolated showers…nothing like the rain earlier this week when we were E of the upper low in the thick of the sfc low precip and frontal bound ..read more

Discussion: Another slug of precipitation is just finishing up in NJ and departing out to sea. We should see a small lull this evening before more returns overnight into tomorrow (Wednesday). Tomorrow will likely feature the heaviest rainfall and stormiest conditions of this week. Between tonight and tomorrow night, another low will track from the SE US right up the east coast. It should literally ride the NJ coast tomorrow as a sub-990mb low. Since there is a strong upper-low nearby (trailing the surface low), we’re going to see a cold injection. It should be cold enough to put most of NJ und ..read more

Discussion: An upper-level low will move into the region by Tuesday/Wednesday and meander around the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US through this weekend. It will keep NJ wet through at least Thursday night, possibly Friday. The stormiest conditions should occur Wednesday PM just ahead/during a cold front. We then see another transient cold period behind that cold front but clearing in time for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday both have a shot at hitting 60 like this past weekend. We just need to get through the 40s/50s and rain this week. There’s a small chance for wintry precipitation this Wednesd ..read more

Discussion: This weekend is straightforward. A mild and zonal setup with a weak disturbance floating through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looks like nuisance rain showers that will occur overnight—sparing Saturday and Sunday daylight hours with just sun, clouds, and a milder feel. This, of course, after today (Friday) which is still cooler and breezy statewide but kind of nice after recent times. Next week should continue the active pattern of precipitation. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all suggest snowfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. My name is Jonathan Carr and I ..read more

Discussion: The center of the approaching system is actually in SE Canada which is producing a large mid-latitude cyclone for much of E North America. For NJ, we’ll see the southern side of it in the form of a cold front with low pressure riding the cold front. Our low is just getting started near Florida and will track up the coast between now (Wednesday PM) and Friday AM. The low will bring periods of moderate-to-heavy rain between tonight (Wednesday) and tomorrow night (Thursday). Here’s what the high-res NAM is spitting out for total rainfall in inches ending late Thursday night: No other ..read more

Discussion: The most important and immediate up-front issue to discuss is the coastal flooding. Earlier last week you might recall me mentioning that the early part of this week could see worse coastal flooding than during the Saturday rain and wind storm. This is because the low has occluded off the jet stream and retrograded towards the 40N/70W benchmark (from the E). This stall in low track has created a large easterly fetch of wind between the benchmark and coastal New England—right towards the Jersey Shore. The next few high tides might sting a bit for areas that normally flood along the ..read more

Discussion: This week is fairly straightforward as a trough swings through the Mid-Atlantic US and holds New Jersey under a colder air mass. The week looks mostly dry with breezy W/NW winds. A few chances for light precip, mainly in the Wed-Thurs period but should occur overnight with minimal disruption. Maybe some snow showers for NNJ/NWNJ but nothing of significance. High temps this week should push to the 40s/50s while overnight lows fall below freezing for much of the state a few nights. We then arrive at an unsettled weekend. The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. GFS has mixed wintry precip ..read more