The latest economic news may seem sobering, but it has the proverbial silver lining. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, announced Thursday that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate from January to March, down sharply from the blistering 4.0 percent rate in the second half of last year. Here’s an economic primer on why the new numbers from BEA are actually good news for President Joe Biden, his reelection campaign, and everyone else. Most importantly, the slowdown increases the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut in ..read more

A Disturbing Day at the Supreme Court Nothing shakes the confidence of an old-fashioned institutionalist like me more than listening to this Supreme Court conduct oral arguments. While the questions posed by the justices don’t always predict their votes, the incredibly obtuse arguments and ludicrous hypotheticals we heard suggests there are not five votes for simply declaring Donald Trump lacks immunity for acts conducted while president and allowing federal charges of election meddling to quickly proceed. More likely we will get five votes for limiting the charges, sending the case ..read more

In an attempt to pressure universities into divesting from companies tied to the Israeli military—and, in some cases, severing all financial and academic relationships with anything Israeli —student protestors and their allies are establishing encampments and occupying buildings on university campuses at a brisk clip. Mother Jones identified active protests on 13 campuses. With the arrest of more than 100 Columbia University students last week drawing national media attention, expect the number to grow. By those metrics—number of participants, amount of media attention—the protests are a succ ..read more

Even lawyers familiar with sharp language from the bench were stunned by it—a calm, reasonable judge giving the lawyer for a former president of the United States a thorough tongue-lashing. Day Six of the Trump Trial was mostly devoted to the first full day of direct examination of David Pecker, the former head of American Media International (the parent company of the National Enquirer) and a star witness for the prosecution. But it began with a contentious—and fascinating—hearing over whether Judge Juan Merchan should grant the prosecution’s motion to hold Donald Trump in contempt of court ..read more

Could Donald Trump face jail for contempt? You’ll have to wait until tomorrow’s post for my eyewitness report. (I’m a day behind. Sorry!) First, here’s a recap of Monday’s developments: With the 12 jurors and six alternates selected last week, the trial began in earnest, with important rulings, opening statements, and the beginning of David Pecker’s testimony, which is critical to the prosecution’s case. The morning began with a security delay. Those of us with reserved seats in the courtroom were held for more than an hour and a half under the scaffolding outside 100 Centre Street. That gave ..read more

In the United States, Europe, and beyond, there is a lot of unease about the future of democracy. Will Trump regain the White House? Will the Republican Congressional minority, enthralled by Trump, imperil democratic Europe and possibly NATO itself, despite a recent vote for Ukraine aid? Will France or Germany fall to ethnonationalists and fascists? Against this backdrop, Poland’s parliamentary elections and selection of Donald Tusk as Prime Minister last fall offered a hopeful counterpoint to the assaults on democracy. Voters embraced Europe and the world to rebuild democratic institutions t ..read more

The 48 Hours When Joe Biden Saved Us From World War III We at the Washington Monthly may have published our Presidential Accomplishment Index issue a couple of weeks too early. In the index, comparing the accomplishments of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, we already gave Biden the advantage on national security and diplomacy. But his greatest successes on those fronts happened last Friday and Saturday. Biden successfully pressured Israel to launch a minimalist military response to Iran’s drone attack. Then he convinced Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to put Uk ..read more

Donald Trump vows to root out the uncooperative public servants who constrained his first term and replace them with loyalists. “Either the deep state destroys America, or we destroy the deep state,” he told rallygoers in March last year. Bringing the sprawling federal bureaucracy to heel is necessary if he’s to realize his agenda: shutting down the southern border, building “vast holding facilities” for migrants facing deportation, and prosecuting his political enemies. Under current law, the vast majority of the 2.1 million-member federal workforce are “career” civil servants. The pres ..read more

It took a week in downtown New York to pick a jury, and the first phase of the Trump trial is over, with opening statements today. Judge Thomas Murphy, who made his reputation with the iconic prosecution of Alger Hiss, began his very model of an opening statement in that case with the words: “Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, you are welcome to a court of justice. Justice to the defendant, to be sure, and justice to my client, the United States of America.” Trump does not appear to understand that he is in a court of justice. The 45th president thinks that he is free to doze off unless he is ..read more

Grants Pass, a town of 40,000 souls on Oregon’s scenic Rogue River, may be the only place in the world where “Neanderthal” is a compliment. During the 1920s, the town’s locals decided to boost tourism at the nearby Oregon Caves National Monument by forming a “Caveman Club” whose members donned Alley Oop garb at local celebrations. The city later renamed its Rogue River Bridge the Caveman Bridge; since 1971, a 17-foot fiberglass Caveperson statue has brooded benignly not far from the local In-N-Out Burger. Even after living in Oregon, off and on, for 30 years, I still tend to drive through a f ..read more