Introduction        Two years have passed since the United States announced a unilateral ban on the testing of destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The ban was announced on April 12, 2022, and hailed as a first step towards establishing a norms of responsible behavior to further the ideal of sustainability in outer space. Several states, including many that do not possess nor intend to deploy such a capability, made similar proclamations. The People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and India, however, refused to make the pledge. The US also ..read more

As the war in Ukraine grinds on with mounting casualties on both sides, Americans are debating whether to continue funding Kyiv’s war effort. Ukraine, however, faces two far greater long-term challenges to its existence as a nation-state. These are serious demographic declines—that will leave it with a shrinking and aging population—and the huge cost of economic reconstruction. In both cases, the situation is dire for Ukraine and one that will require considerable external assistance. Such assistance is crucial to maintain the credibility of the West, yet the fear is that once the war ends, so ..read more

In an era marked by escalating tensions, the concept of nuclear deterrence still holds profound significance and elicits multifaceted discussion and debate. One proposition in the defense community is the reintroduction of a non-strategic nuclear capability within the United States Navy, by way of the sea-launched cruise missile-nuclear (SLCM-N). What is missing in the debate is an in-depth analysis from a tactical standpoint, focusing on the capabilities, costs, and communication strategies pertinent to such a proposition. Capabilities Assessment The possible introduction of SLCM-N to the att ..read more

For America to pragmatically solve the nuclear strategy three body problem—simultaneously deterring Russia, China, and North Korea—the United States must compensate for three characteristics of the international system: realpolitik, fake news, and sociopathic dictators. These, unfortunately for global peacekeeping, interact in a feedback loop, which forms a deadly three-player game of its own. In game theory, three-player games are notoriously difficult to analyze and sometimes the weakest player wins big. Realpolitik, fake news, and sociopathic dictators are nothing new. They date back more t ..read more

The recent allocation of $409 million in funding by the United States Air Force (USAF) to revitalize an airfield on the island of Tinian signifies a definitive long-term investment and commitment to American deterrence throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The history of the United States military’s affiliation with Tinian is closely tied to the island’s strategic importance during World War II. Prior to the war, Tinian, along with the rest of the Mariana Islands, was under Japanese control. Japan established military installations on the island, including airfields and defensive fortifications ..read more

In August 2002, an Iranian opposition group, Mujahideen e-Khalq, held a conference warning the West that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was building nuclear facilities in two Iranian cities, Natanz and Arak. Although the news took Western decision-makers, or at least the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by surprise, the British-American nuclear strategist, Colin S. Gray, predicted nuclear proliferation would still occur and the West should be ready. Instead, Iran is now on the cusp of nuclear weapons as it wages war with Israel. The consequences may very well prove catastrophic ..read more

There are at least five compelling reasons for supporting continued American efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms. This is despite the aggressive nuclear buildup of Russia and China. First, there is concern that rogue states and terrorist groups with nuclear weapons would seek to bring on the very Armageddon deterrence is designed to prevent. Ensuring this concern is never materialized is a clear objective of the United States. Second, adding new countries to the nuclear club increases the risks of accidents and theft as safely deploying and testing nuclear weapons is not something le ..read more

At the core of American deterrence is the question of right-sizing the arsenal. Given the growing arsenals of China, North Korea, and Russia, there is ample reason to question whether the United States has the right size and type of nuclear weapons. The issue has many facets and is the subject of active research and debate. US Strategic Command’s commander, General Anthony Cotton, labels this issue the three body problem. As nuclear strategy experts suggest, American deterrence capabilities and overall numbers both matter. Patrick McKenna and Dylan Land’s “Don’t Get Lost in the Numbers: An Ana ..read more

When the United States withdrew its nuclear forces from the Korean Peninsula in 1991, it could not have known how the strategic environment would change over the next three decades. Today, alternative strategies to current nuclear weapons policy are needed. Understanding the fluid nature of the nuclear threat to South Korea from the north and China is an important first step. The Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea (DPRK) tested its first nuclear device on October 9, 2006. This action exacerbated an already significant threat perception by the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan. Because ..read more

The topic of rebuilding a European nuclear deterrent in a world of finite American resources was the topic discussed by Max Hoell in one of Peter Huessy’s recent online seminars. The discussion touched on the evolving challenges to American extended deterrence in Europe amidst growing nuclear capabilities and assertiveness from China, North Korea, Russia, and, potentially, Iran. This is prompting European debate on nuclear deterrence and strategic alignment. While attempting to summarize these complex issues, the article makes a number of recommendations for advancing European deterrence. Euro ..read more