Joelle Grogan examines the current row between Ireland and the UK over claims that 80% of asylum seekers arriving in Ireland in 2024 have arrived via the UK from Northern Ireland. Irish Minister for Justice, Helen McEntee, claimed last week that 80% of asylum seekers to Ireland are crossing from the UK via the Northern Ireland border. While this figure is not confirmed, and is ‘not statistical, [and not from] a database or evidence base’ according to the Tánasite (Deputy Prime Minister), the Irish government doubled down on accusing the UK’s Rwanda policy of being a driver of the spike in arri ..read more

Dermot Hodson unpacks the objectives President Macron was aiming to achieve with his Sorbonne speech last week and the obstacles he will encounter before the end of his presidency.  ‘In 2024, Ode to Joy will ring out’, predicted Emmanuel Macron in a speech at the Sorbonne in September 2017. When the French President returned to Paris’s oldest university last week to speak once more about Europe’s future, he cemented his reputation as the EU’s predominant national leader. This intervention also marks the beginning of the end of Macron’s time on the European stage. Set piece speeches on Eur ..read more

Georgina Wright analyses President Macron’s recent European speech, arguing that while it will have reassured those who support Macron’s priorities for Europe, it provided few new ideas and will have done little to convince those who do not. A week has passed since French President Macron delivered his long-awaited speech on Europe at the Sorbonne university in Paris – just about enough to digest its content. Like many of his speeches, it did not disappoint: it was long (almost two hours), comprehensive and contained a few hard-hitting sentences. This was Macron’s chance to take stock of his E ..read more

Stephanie Luke explores the far right in Europe, arguing that regardless of whether the far right remain split over two groups in the European Parliament, they share common ground and can form ‘issue-based alliances’. At the beginning of June, the European elections are taking place across EU member states, and while most of the European Parliamentary groups have produced manifestos, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group has confirmed that it will refrain from doing so. The group’s vice president Gunnar Beck argued that they did not need a manifesto because their ‘programme was alrea ..read more

Hannah Bunting and Michael Thrasher look at where the parties stand, how they might fare, and what to look out for as voters head to the polls on 2 May to vote in mayoral and Police and Crime Commission elections. For what to look out for in local council elections see here. As well as local council elections, on 2 May there will also be elections in London, contests for city and region mayors, and elections for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) across England and Wales. It is the first set since the passing of the Elections Act 2022 meaning each mayoral contest will use a different voting ..read more

Hannah Bunting and Michael Thrasher look at where the parties stand, how they might fare, and what to look out for as voters head to the polls on 2 May to vote in local elections. For what to look out for in mayoral and Police and Crime Commissioner elections see here. It’s that time again as voters head to the polls to elect their local councillors, mayors and Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs). Not every council has a scheduled election, but every registered elector with sufficient ID across England and Wales will be able to vote in at least one of the three types of contests on 2 May. 20 ..read more

James Breckwoldt summarises the findings of his recent research, which finds that people with a lower likelihood of future homeownership show significantly higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives, whereas those who are more likely to own are very similar in their vote intention to current homeowners. In the twenty first century, increases in British house prices have far outpaced wage rises. Rates of homeownership among younger generations have been far lower than for previous cohorts at the same ages. This is a marked change from the second half of the twentieth cent ..read more

Joël Reland highlights the raft of landmark pieces of legislation the EU is rushing to finalise ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. He argues that UK businesses will have little choice but to follow the EU measures to avoid losing access to their biggest export market. In contrast to the fevered speculation over the timing of the UK election, little attention is being paid to one we already know the date of – this June’s EU elections. Yet the next European Commission, whose composition hinges on the outcome of the poll, is likely to have a major bearing on the UK’s politics and ..read more

10 years have passed since Croatia’s accession to the EU and almost 20 years since Croatia was a candidate country. Despite EU membership, corruption remains a big issue in Croatia. Using new Ipsos data for UK in a Changing Europe, Stephanie Luke highlights that this has translated into a loss of faith in politics. The countries covered in Ipsos’ polling for UK in a Changing Europe vary in size, party system and political history. One thing, though, pretty much unites them: their public’s dissatisfaction with democracy. Of the seven countries analysed, it is only in Sweden where a majority (58 ..read more

Anwen Elias looks at the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, exploring what comes next and the wider lessons for debate about constitutional change. On 18 January 2024, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales published its final report on different options for the governance of Wales. Whether the report will lead to changes in the Welsh devolution settlement depends on securing agreement from the UK government and other devolved administrations. But there are also broader lessons to be learnt from the Commission’s work: it provides a model for ..read more