Increase in cost of crude could drive inflation up and force central banks to keep interest rates high • Business live – latest updates A serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East would push the price of oil above $100 (£80) a barrel and reverse the recent downward trend in global inflation, the World Bank has said. The Washington-based institution said the recent fall in commodity prices had been levelling off even before the recent missile strikes by Iran and Israel – making interest rate decisions for central banks tougher ..read more

The March-quarter figure makes a cut less likely. Still, the Reserve Bank will probably give more weight to how quickly it can get to its target range Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast A higher-than-forecast inflation result for the March quarter (and March itself) wasn’t the news Australian borrowers or the Albanese government had been wishing for. Disappointment, however, needn’t usher in panic spasms either. Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup ..read more

Inflation appears to be under control, and real wages are now growing – but for those with Hecs/Help debts, the pressure is very real Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast Despite what the fearmongers would have you believe, the latest inflation figures showed that inflation remains well under control. Not only is there no need for any more rate rises, but doing so would only increase the likelihood of unemployment rising, with little actual impact on inflation. There’s always danger with reporting on inflation figures because there’s more than enough figu ..read more

Economists had tipped CPI growth for the March quarter of 0.8%, and an annual inflation rate of 3.5% Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the March quarter as rents and education costs increased, dimming hopes the cost-of-living crunch was easing and lessening chances of a 2024 cut in official interest rates. The consumer price index for the first three months of 2024 was 3.6% higher than a year earlier, slowing from the 4.1% annual pace in the D ..read more

ABF, which also owns Dorset Cereals, says it is not yet planning rises but it may need to import ‘quite a lot’ of grain One of the UK’s biggest bread makers has warned of potentially higher prices as it expects “very small” grain harvests in the UK, making the company more reliant on imports. George Weston, the head of Associated British Foods (ABF), which owns Kingsmill and Ryvita as well as Twinings tea, Dorset Cereals and the cut-price fashion retailer Primark, said the group had not increased its food prices in the past six months after a hefty period of inflation last year ..read more

Huw Pill warns inflation could rebound as UK business survey signals economy strengthened over last month The prospects of a summer cut in UK interest rates have receded after the Bank of England’s chief economist said inflation must be squeezed out of the economy and cautioned against cutting too soon. After a key survey signalled strong sales across the private sector over the past month and the London stock market rose to a record high, Huw Pill said concerns remained that inflation, which is expected to fall below its 2% target within a few months, could then rebound as the economy strengt ..read more

Shoppers spend more on promotions as Easter lifts sales of chocolate eggs and hot-cross buns Business live – latest updates Grocery price inflation in Great Britain has slowed to 3.2%, the lowest since November 2021, as the cost of toilet rolls, butter and milk fell and people spent more on store promotions. The decline in the four weeks to 14 April marked the 14th monthly drop in a row, and compares with an annual rate of 4.5% this time last month, according to the retail analysts Kantar. The slowdown in grocery inflation was aided by a big increase in promotional spending, with items bough ..read more

Bathroom in Noe Valley neighborhood, which became focus of ire for reported $1.7m cost, actually came in at about $200,000 San Francisco made international headlines in 2022 when news broke that a project to build a public restroom in a town square would cost $1.7m. This weekend the toilet affair finally came to an end as the city celebrated its newest lavatory. Residents gathered for a toilet-themed party in the Noe Valley town square on Sunday that was designed to poke fun at the whole saga and celebrate the long-awaited bathroom, which ended up costing far less than the initial price tag ..read more

IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse World Bank official calls for shake-up of G20 debt relief scheme The 2020s are almost halfway over and are on course to be the most difficult decade for the global economy since the 1930s. Every finance minister and central bank governor at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington last week knows that, even if they were not prepared to admit it publicly. The IMF likes to look on the bright side. It revised up slightly its forecast for global growth and now t ..read more

City investors trim their forecasts for rate cuts this year, after inflation falls by less than expected to 3.2% Full story: UK inflation falls to 3.2%, the lowest level since September 2021 Middle East conflict risks sharp rise in oil prices, says IMF The UK’s annual inflation rate fell in March for a second consecutive month, dropping to 3.2% – the lowest level since September 2021 – easing pressure on households amid the cost of living crisis. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show inflation as measured by the consumer prices index continued to fall from 3.4% in Febru ..read more