MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
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Bob McDavitt is the weather guru that uses /\/\etBoB to provide weather information for cruising sailors, primarily for those in the South Pacific.
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
5d ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 April 2024
SOI is changing.
It’s now official. The El Nino of last year is now over and we are in neutral territory. El Nino is the name given to the period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific are above normal. A good measure of this is the Nino 3.4 index. The graph shown here from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia has the Nino 3.4 measurements and calculated trends from an ensemble of compute ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
1w ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 April 2024
A review of the cyclone season
This time-map shows the cyclones that affected the Australian and South pacific regions during the cyclone season that started on 1 November 2023 and ends on 30 April 2024.
Australia
South Pacific
VANUATU had a hard time in 2023 with three severe storms: Judy and Kevin in March, then Lola in October. Then in November Mal brought some minor damage to Fiji.
During this cyclone season ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
1M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024
Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o
The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy sources, reducing emissions, and increasing inv ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
1M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on steroids.
As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific. There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to 150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, cre ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
1M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
1. We are here:
For more info see climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
2. Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
3Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that “mirror convergence zones”” which I mentioned before have now formed :
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
1M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
A review of last month’s weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w
During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks, activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4 tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These systems where so close together that ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
2M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 25 February 2024
Panama to Marquesas -seasonal challenges
Normally the International Convergence zone ITCZ meanders across the Pacific Ocean in a latitude band between 10 and 2 degrees north of the equator.
An interesting “mirror” of the ITCZ forms in the eastern Pacific at this time of the year:
This is triggered by the overhead sun. During late February and early March, the latitude of the overhead sun shifts slowly northward ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
2M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 February 2024
El Nino is expected to weaken this autumn
We are having an El Nino weather pattern. It is the name given to the period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific are above normal. This pattern is expected to change during our autumn as shown by this graph from The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. with the trends in Sea temperature made by several computer models.
The next image shows the ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
2M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 11 February 2024
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
Occasional in summer we get today’s wonderful pattern when the MJO takes the Monsoonal trough out from Australia and into the central Pacific:
Windy isobar map today
During an El Nino period this helps feed the Hadley and Walker circulations to intensify the Subtropical ridges as per these diagrams
I often mention how we can work out the rhythm of weather in the South Pacific by watching the ..read more
MetBob – weather to avoid , South Pacific
2M ago
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 4 February 2024
A review of last month’s weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/BeFD1a7Hhu4
During late January an MJO started to move across northern Australia and triggered TC KIRILLY which moved onto Queensland and turned into a wet depression, In early February (late last week) KIRILLY rejuvenated back into a cyclone ..read more