Here is part two of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane outlook. This is an extension of my analysis from my 2024 Hurricane Outlook Part One. I will take you through the reasons I think this is going to be a very busy season. Link to part one. The 2024 hurricane season is getting closer. The Hurricane Season starts on June 1’s and will end on November 30th.  The 2024 Hurricane season should be quite different as we transition from El Nino into A la-Nina.   Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SST)…   In the Pacific We still have slightly above average SST in the equatorial Pac ..read more

Some of y’all have been asking why this past winter was so warm with a lack of blocking and snowfall. I’m sure many of Y’all have the same question. So here is a post that will try to explain what is going on. I’m a Meteorologist not a Climatologist. But I do have an understanding of Climatology, so we will see how well I do!    I’ve been posting a few writeups dealing with the changing climate, in things like the spring and hurricane outlooks. This post will take a look at possible reasons for last winter being so warm and snowless.      El Nino Southern Osculation (E ..read more

Hard to believe, but hurricane season is less than 100 days away. So, it’s time to start talking about the Tropics. Based on data from 1991 to 2020, an average season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.  Before we get into the 2024 season, let’s take a quick look at the 2023 Atlantic season. A look back at the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season... Part one Part two Part three In 2023 the tropical Pacific experienced El Nino. Typically, El Nino suppresses tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin, due to increased atmospheric stability and inc ..read more

  Meteorological spring is right around the corner with the season kicking off on the first day of March; but Astronomical spring (vernal equinox) is less than a month away, which officially begins on March 19 at 11:06 p.m. So here are my overall thoughts on the 2024 Spring Season. But first, let’s take a look at the 2023-2024 winter season since it is nearing its end. Based on pressure anomalies, the overall pattern was quite similar to what the winter outlook indicated. The winter also favored above average precipitation. But what caused Winter 2023-2024 to be basically a no-show were t ..read more

  I’ve been getting a lot of questions and request in regards to the general pattern for February into March. So here is a post that will cover that.   December went the way the winter outlook said it would. The outlook also said temperatures would likely become below average during the 2nd half of January, that too has come to pass. We have been seeing snow, New York City, Philadelphia Baltimore and Washington DC have broken the snowfall drought.  So, for the most part, the outlook has done very well so far.  What about the rest of Winter? Sea Surface Temperature   ..read more

  A little overview of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, officially ended on Nov. 30. In spite of it being a strong El Nino; The season was very active. In fact, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year. Looking at the numbers, there were 20 named storms (including an unnamed subtropical storm that formed on January 16), seven of which were hurricanes, three of them became major hurricanes, and the season had an overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 146. In total there were 3 landfalling tropical cyclones on t ..read more

  The days and nights are getting colder, most of us have had our killing frost, and some of us have had our first snow of the early season.  So, with the 2023-2024 winter right around the corner, the thought “what is this winter going to be like?” is growing more and more common across the region.  So that means it’s time for my Winter Outlook for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  Many of y’all look forward to what could be instore, where I combine a bit of science with pinch of conjecture and a spoonful of past patterns that were similar, and try to come up with the gen ..read more

  Part two will cover what this year’s tropical activity can tell us, snow cover in Siberia, and talk about some of the teleconnections like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. To read part one follow this link I've been working on this and trying to figure out the best way to present it in the most concise straightforward and easy to understand format. Which is far from an easy task.  I’ve tried to take a balanced approach to what I’m seeing this year. Remember a winter outlook is an overview of what the entire winter season should feature. This outlook isn’t going to cover storm detai ..read more

  Well, we’re at that time of year, where thoughts about the upcoming winter start to surface. A professor of mine once said “global weather is local weather”.  By that they meant that the local weather we experience day in and day out is just part of the overall global weather pattern. This is the basic principle of weather forecasting.  The weather locally doesn’t occur at random. It is the result of all the large and small interactions between global teleconnections and all the unique factors that make up our local environment.  My weather outlooks are based on scientifi ..read more

  When I posted my hurricane Outlook in the Spring, I said this would end up an active season in spite of the idea of a moderate to strong El Nino; I outlined how those record warm Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, would help counter the El Nino. My call then was for 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. The CONUS could see 2-4 landfalls with one of them possibility being major. The ACE would be 100-150. So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has been proceeding at a blistering pace. So far this year, there have been 17 named storms, including an unnamed ..read more