The equity markets have taken a bit of a knock in recent weeks with the conflict in the Middle East grabbing the headlines and the prospect of lower interest rates being pushed back. It is too early to say if the bearish trend will continue, especially as Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are all reporting mid-week, but there is no shortage of possible catalysts that could spark a correction. One area that has benefitted from the change of sentiment is the defensive investment trusts. Funds like Ruffer (LON: RICA) and BH Macro (LON: BHMG) have had a tough 12 months, but last week they were both in ..read more

Bernanke’s Verdict Dr Ben Bernanke, a Nobel laureate who was Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2024, was asked last year by the Court (board of directors) to conduct a review of the Bank of England’s forecasting models. His conclusions were published last Friday (12 April) – and they are damning. “Significant shortcomings” in its methodology contributed to the failure of the Bank to foresee the inflationary surge that gathered pace at the end of 2021 and allowed inflation to reach 11.1 percent by October 2022 – higher than in the USA or the eurozone. It seems that the Bank’s approac ..read more

There has been some unexplained matters at International Distribution Services (IDS). For instance, I took a call at midday on Wednesday from a punter expressing his gratitude for putting him on to IDS. I was surprised since the price was 215p that morning. I then learnt that the price was 255p. Since there was no explanation (volume was fairly slight) I could not persuade myself to trade. However, late in he afternoon it emerged that the Czech Mr Daniel Kretinsky had been turned down on 11th April by the board of IDS when he had sought an agreed bid of 320p. Indeed the board considers that 32 ..read more

Hunting Group (LON:HTG) – Another Year Of Growth The Trading Update issued for Wednesday’s AGM by this global engineering business was quite positive. In the group’s first three months of the current year, it showed an EBITDA of $28.9m as compared to the $22.4m in the same period last year. CEO Jim Johnson guided that the majority of the group’s product lines have reported a positive start to the year, leading to management retaining its full-year EBITDA guidance of $125m to $135m. He stated that: “2024 is likely to be a further year of growth for the industry driven by geopolitical and macro ..read more

Billington Holdings (LON:BILN) – New Price Objective Of 610p I have said this so many times before – this company is a ‘class act’ and its shares are cheap. It is one of the UK’s leading structural steel and construction safety solutions specialists. The group is focused on structural steel and engineering activities throughout both the UK and the European markets. In mid-November last year, it advised the market that it expected revenue and pre-tax profits would be ahead of market estimates. In late March this year, the company reported that it had recently been awarded six new contracts wort ..read more

It has been an interesting start to the year with the macro-economic data driving sentiment one way then another. This has created a challenging environment for investment trusts with many big winners and losers. When there is so much uncertainty about which way things will go it can create some decent opportunities, so it is worth looking back at what has happened and why. If you do that then the recent performance can provide a useful guide as to what might happen in the months ahead. The year started on a positive note, but hopes of multiple rate cuts in the US and the UK faded quite early ..read more

Africa always amazes. For instance, the BBC report that The Nigerian minister for alleviation of poverty, one Betta Edu, has helped herself to c. USD24m of funds (straight into her personal bank account). The full title of this ministry is The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Alleviation of Poverty. I suppose Ms Edu reckons that charity begins at home and since she felt poor helped herself. It is logical enough. Although quite why the British government continues to pay subsidies of one sort or another direct to Nigeria under the overseas aid programme I have no idea. ***** Markets seem to ..read more

Does it have to take a former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, to tell us that the Governor and his colleagues have been unable to properly predict the ensuing economic shocks after Russia invaded Ukraine? He called the BoE’s main economic model as being no longer fit for purpose.  Andrew John Bailey, aged 65, has been the Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020, he is employed on at least £11,500 a week plus perks.  Refusing to apologise for the lack of more accurate economic analyses, Bailey’s response was effectively, like others in public offices – le ..read more

There is, it is said, lots of oil around but much is far from politically safe and therefore Chariot (CHAR) off the coast of Morocco is not as attractive as Pantheon (PANR) which clearly has a massive oily acreage in Alaska. But these things take time to be proved up and, although the management of PANR is regarded as well up to speed, the expected eventual bid (at comfortably above 100p) will not appear, it is said, before 2025. I sold 250,000 at 36.2p and regret this. But cash is needed for domestic matters and CHAR which I pocketed at 9.3p. Cavendish (part developed from Cenkos) are still b ..read more

The US economy appears to be in very good shape and is likely to remain so for the rest of the year. If that’s good news overall, it’s also a thorn in the side of investors who are reaping the benefits of interest rate cuts. Driven by the euphoria around AI, growth stocks have dominated the investment landscape for many months. However, sentiment about the future path of interest rates is changing, derailing the enthusiasm around the growth theme. In my view, the potential for further deterioration is high and I suspect that the hype around AI and megacap growth may be coming to an end. Howeve ..read more